University of Colorado at Boulder An Integrated Assessment for Barrow, Alaska Ron Brunner, Amanda...
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Transcript of University of Colorado at Boulder An Integrated Assessment for Barrow, Alaska Ron Brunner, Amanda...
University of ColoradoUniversity of Coloradoat Boulderat Boulder
An Integrated Assessment for Barrow, AlaskaAn Integrated Assessment for Barrow, Alaska
Ron Brunner, Amanda Lynch, & colleaguesRon Brunner, Amanda Lynch, & colleaguesJim Maslanik, PIJim Maslanik, PI
Funded by Office of Polar Programs Funded by Office of Polar Programs National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation
Context & Climate ChangeContext & Climate Change
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Data from the NOAA ETOPO-5 dataset
Barrow
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Climate Change & Variability
Barrow has a history manifest in major extreme events
• 4 to 6 October 1954 • 3 October 1963 – the most damaging
Fewer big storms mid-1960s to mid-1980s• 12 & 20 September 1986• 25 February 1989• 10 August 2000• 5 & 8 October 2002• 29 July 2003
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3 October 1963
Photo by Grace Redding
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3 October 1963
Photo by Grace Redding
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Barrow Is SignificantBarrow Is Significant
• Much experience exists there to build upon– Including extreme events & policy responses
• Harvesting that experience is important for– Continuing improvements in policy responses in Barrow
– Informing responses in other Alaska Native villages
– Reconsidering climate science & policy generally
• Context matters because Barrow is unique– Every other local community worldwide is also unique
– Also, some trends in Barrow differ from Arctic trends
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Our Integrated AssessmentOur Integrated Assessment
• Designed to expand range of informed choices for people in Barrow
• Focused on erosion & flooding problems• Approach is intensive
– Centered on Barrow
– Comprehensive in range of factors studied
– Integrative in focus on extreme events
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Old Barrow Townsite
Photo by Dora Nelson
Barrow’s Vulnerabilities
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Other Vulnerabilities
August 2002 QuickBird Satellite Image
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Multiple Vulnerability Factors Multiple Vulnerability Factors
• Rising temperatures, until recently
• Deeper permafrost thaw
• More fetch from sea-ice retreat
• More frequent & intense storms?
• Trend is unclear
• More community development
• Other human factors
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• Declining since 1990s
• Other indicators
• Fewer very cold days
• Shorter cold spells
• Earlier spring thaw
Barrow winter minimum temperatures
Rising TemperaturesRising Temperatures
Credit: Claudia Tebaldi
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Permafrost Thaw Depth
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• Sea ice retreat
• Largest in west
• Affects fetch next autumn
1997BarrowBarrow
Credit: James Maslanik
More FetchMore Fetch
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High Wind Events
• Low frequency
period
• Linear or cyclical trend?
• Increases in variability
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Oct 63 storm
Strong Easterlies
Strong Westerlies
Classification of Arctic Pressure Systems
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Strong Easterlies
Strong Westerlies
-2/decade
+1.8/decade
+1.6/decade
Elizabeth Cassano, Melinda Koslow, and Amanda Lynch
Classification of Arctic Pressure Systems
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• Erosion is relatively small
• No erosion SE of gravel pit
• Highest erosion is at the bluffs: 34 m in 50 years
• Erosion is mostly episodic
Erosion Erosion 1948 - 19971948 - 1997
Credit: Leanne Lestak and William Manley
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Erosion Erosion October 1963 StormOctober 1963 Storm
• Along the bluffs, only erosion occurred
• Average almost 4 m; maximum almost 12 m; highly variable
• Perhaps 1/3 of 50-year bluff erosion occurred during one storm
Credit: Page Sturtevant and Leanne Lestak
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19481948 19971997
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• Compound uncertainties in each factor• In summary, coastal flooding & erosion
in Barrow are the confluence of…o Low surface atmospheric pressureo Long fetch (or open water) to the westo High westerly winds of long duration
• Such big storms expose and help thaw permafrost, increasing erosion
• Development exposes more things of value to the community
Interactions among FactorsInteractions among Factors
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Major Policy Responses
• Beach Nourishment Program– Sept. 1986 storms initiated planning process
– July 1992: NSB Assembly appropriated $16 m
– August 2000 storm damaged & sunk the dredge
– Informal local appraisals are mixed at best
• NSB/USACE Joint Feasibility Study– Motivated in part by August 2000 storm
– Phase I to be completed September 2005
– Commencement of O & M scheduled for 2012
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Other Policy Responses
• Old landfill site protected & capped• New hospital location• New research facility design• Inland evacuation route from NARL• Emergency management exercises• Utilidor retrofit• Planning/zoning & relocation• Policy process is distributed
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Proposed Networking Strategy
Alaska Native villages meet to compare experience re coastal erosion & flooding
• Maximize experience available for adaptation decisions in each village
• Help clarify their common interest in adapting state & federal programs
• Builds on hearings in Anchorage June 2004 and GAO-04-142 December 2003
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Self-EmpowermentSelf-Empowerment
• Problem of Governance: Agency Programs“…we have found that none of the agencies have programs that cover the full range of our needs…. To be blunt, no agency’s programs are designed for a project as complex as a full village relocation. Each agency has its realm of responsibility, and often there is a gap program to program.” Luci Eningowuk, Shishmaref Erosion and Relocation Coalition (June 2004)
• Possible SolutionNative villages take the lead in advising their elected representatives on adapting, supplementing, and integrating agency programs to meet village needs.
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Conclusions on Adaptation
• Science cannot significantly reduce inherent uncertainties
• Sound policy incorporates uncertainties, many community values & constraints– Sound policy process adjusts policies as
events unfold• Community is in best position to decide
sound policy & take responsibility• In short, context matters in adaptations
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Conclusions on Communication
• Depend on sustained interactions with the community & its leaders
• Depend on research focused on their local experience & concerns; substance matters
• Big storms (or extreme events) provide a common focus of attention
• Interim results of value to the community help sustain interactions
• So does each new storm: Nature is an ally motivating adaptations
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Colleagues & Contributors
Jim Maslanik, PI
Matt Beedle
Elizabeth Cassano
Anne Jensen
Melinda Koslow
Leanne Lestak
Amanda Lynch
Linda Mearns
Matt Pocernich
Glenn Sheehan
James Syvitski
Page Sturtevant
Claudio Tebaldi