Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis

by Rahmat A. Al HasibiSemarang

July, 13th 2011

Outline• Development of CASINDO Leap Model

– CASINDO database structure– Survey result of Household sector– Scenarios:

• Baseline scenario• The integration of TWG III result in energy efficiency

scenario

– Overview of LEAP Model

• Next Activity

CASINDO Database Structure (Household)CAREPI CASINDO

Household Sector

Under Poverty Line

Under 1.5 Poverty Line

Middle

Top 20%

Kerosene Intensity

LPG Intensity

Electricity Intensity

Biomass Intensity

Household Sector

Under Poverty Line

Under 1.5 Poverty Line

Middle

Top 20%

Lighting

Cooking

Other

Electricity

Kerosene

LPG

Kerosene

Biomass

Electricity

The Result of Household Survey• adjusted to 2008 condition

Rural (Fuel Allocation) Urban (Fuel Allocation)Under Poverty Line Kerosene Electrictiy LPG Biomass Under Poverty Line Kerosene Electrictiy LPG Biomasscooking 97.65 100 100 cooking 100.00 100 100 lighting 2.35 70.23 lighting - 40.46 other 29.77 other 59.54 % 100 100 100 100 % 100 100 100 100

Under 1.5 Poverty Line Kerosene Electrictiy LPG Biomass Under 1.5 Poverty Line Kerosene Electrictiy LPG Biomasscooking 97.96 100 100 cooking 100.00 100 100 lighting 2.04 65.82 lighting - 44.18 other 34.18 other 55.82 % 100 100 100 100 % 100 100 100 100

Middle Kerosene Electrictiy LPG Biomass Middle Kerosene Electrictiy LPG Biomasscooking 98.76 100 100 cooking 100.00 100 100 lighting 1.24 40.23 lighting - 42.32 other 59.77 other 57.68 % 100 100 100 100 % 100 100 100 100

Top 20% Kerosene Electrictiy LPG Biomass Top 20% Kerosene Electrictiy LPG Biomasscooking 100.00 100 100 cooking 100.00 100 100 lighting - 35.92 lighting - 30.94 other 64.08 other 69.06 % 100 100 100 100 % 100 100 100 100

Baseline Scenario• Population and population growth

– Population of Y ogyakarta Province in 2008:3, 4 6 8,502 people

– Population growth in 2005 – 2008: 1.01 %– Population growth assumption in scenario:

• GDP and GDP growth:– GDP of Yogyakarta Province in 2008: 19 , 208, 9 3 6– GDP growth in 2008: 5.02 %– GDP growth assumption in 2025: 6 .0 %

• kerosene to LPG conversion:– End in 2010

• Electrification ratio:– 100 % in 2020

No. Year Interval Population Growth1. 2010-2015 0.81%2. 2015-2020 0.63%3. 2020-2025 0.44%

Energy Efficiency Scenario• National Target in Energy Efficiency (25/25 vision)

– Industrial Sector: 22 % final energy ~ 32 % primary energy– Commercial Sector: 15 % final energy ~ 22 % primary energy– Transportation Sector: 25 % final energy ~ 3 7 % primary energy– Household Sector: 25 % final energy ~ 37 % primary energy– National: 23 % final energy ~ 3 4 % primary energy

• Regional Energy Efficiency Potential:– Industrial Sector: 15 – 20 %– Household Sector: 10 – 25 %– Transportation Sector*: 25 %– Commercial Sector*: 25 – 30 %

LEAP Model (Overview)

LEAP Model (Overview)

LEAP Model (Overview)

Next Activity

• July-September 2011, to finalize:– scenarios of LEAP model– D28 report

THANK YOU