Universidad - · PDF fileThe quan4ficaon of the impact of data in reservoir modeling ... at...
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Universidad EAFIT
School of Sciences
Data Assimila*on Schemes in Colombian Geodynamics - Coopera*ve Research Plan for 2017 -2020 Between Universidad EAFIT and
TUDelH O.LucíaQuinteroM,Mathema4calSciencesDepartment,NicolásPinelPeláez,BiologicalSciencesDepartment.
SchoolofSciencesUniversidadEAFIT
{oquinte1,npinelp}@eafit.edu.co
A.W.Heemink,DIAM,TUDelR
M.Verlaan,Dept.ofClimate,AirandSustainability,TNO
AJ.Segers,SeniorSpecialist,Deltares
TheNetherlands
Outline
• Introduc4on&Researchrelevance• EnvironmentalEmergency(Con4ngency)2016• AirQuality&Pollu4on• AirQualityMonitoring&Modeling(ValledeAburrá)
• Theore4calframework• ResearchProposal
Environmental Emergency (a.k.a. Con*ngency) Medellin, Mar-Apr 2016
Source:ElColombiano,Medellín.
Environmental Emergency (a.k.a. Con*ngency) Medellin - Mar 18-Apr 19, 2016
• PM2.5>125µg/m3(WHOguidelinesmax.25µg/m3)• Dayswithoutcar&motorcycles• Restrictedtruck(volquetas)
movement• Ceaseofoutdoorac4vi4es• Regionalrushhourtraffic
restric4ons(picoyplaca)• FreeMetro
Health Impacts of Air Pollu*on
Medellín,Colombia,onApril8,2016(AFPPhoto/RaulArboleda)
4thamongtheglobalkillers.
• 6.5x106deathsworldwide• ~4000deathsMedellin• Associatedwith:• heartdisease• obstruc4velungdisease• cancer
• >90%worldpopula4onatrisk
WHO – Air Pollu*on (PM2.5,10) Interac*ve Map
hZp://maps.who.int/airpollu*on/
Air Pollu*on Issue of significant global concern
World Health Organiza*on September, 2016
Interna*onal Energy Agency June, 2016
World Bank - IHME September, 2016
• Helsinki Protocol (1985) on the Reduc*on of Sulphur Emissions • Oslo Protocol (1994) on Further Reduc*on of Sulphur Emissions • 2015 World Health Assembly resolu*on to “address the adverse health
effects of air pollu*on” (194 WHO member states)
Source:Scotland’sEnvironment,hnp://www.environment.scotland.gov.uk/media/26674/Sources-of-air-pollu4on_310314.png
Air Pollu*on Monitoring – Valle de Aburrá
Air Pollu*on Modeling – Valle de Aburrá
AERMODLocalAirQualityModelCAMxRegionalAirQualityModelMODEAM,LEAPEmissionsModelsRAMSRegionalModelingSystemBRAMSRegionalModelingSystem
Long-term goals:
To inform & mo*vate air quality-related public policy via…
Improvedairqualitymodels&forecasts Human
exposuretoairpollu4onmodels(e.g.,EXPAND,EXPOLIS,INDAIR)
Theoretical framework
…
[hnp://www.iris.no/enkf/enkf-homepage]
“TheensembleKalmanfilter(EnKF)anditsmanyvariantshaveproveneffec4vefordataassimila4oninlargemodels,includingthoseinatmospheric,oceanic,hydrologic,andpetroleumreservoirsystems.Bybringingtogethertechnicalexperts,prac44oners,researchersandstudentsforpresenta4onsandinformalexchangeofinforma4on,weaimtoshareresearchresultsandsuggestimportantchallengesthathaveyettobeaddressed”
Dataassimila4onreliesontheuseofanextensionforhighdimensionalsystemsoftheclassicalapproachforfilteringcalledtheKalmanFilter.
[Evensen,2009]
TheEnKFisamodifica4onthatusesMonteCarloapproachtoes4matetheminimumvariancesolu4ontothestatees4ma4onproblem.AttheanalysisstepintheEnKF,anensembleofthesystemstate,isgeneratedwithsamplemeananscovarianceastheanalysisstateanderrorcovariancematrixwiththeensemblentypicallymuchsmallerthanthedimensionmxinlargescaleapplica4ons.
Bypropaga4ngtheanalysisensemblethroughthetransi4onoperator,weobtainforecastensembleatthenextdataassimila4oncycle.Whenanewobserva4onisavailable,theanalysisstepisusedtocomputetheanalysisensemblefromitsforecastcounterpartbasedonthesamplecovariancematrixoftheforecastensemble.
Twotypesofdataassimila4on:• RelatedtotheEnsembleKalmanfilterforstatees4ma4on
• Varia4onalmethodsfortheparameteres4ma4on
[Barbu2010,Krymskaya,2013,Sebacher,2014,Altaf2015,Fuetal,2015,Luetal,2015,Krymskaya,2013,Tijanaetal,2014,VerlaanandSumihar,2016]
Measuringtheimpactofobserva4ons(data)overtheperformanceofaDataAssimila4onSchemeintheenhancementofamodel.
[Barbu2010,Krymskaya,2013,Sebacher,2014,Altaf2015,Fuetal,2015,Luetal,2015,Krymskaya,2013,Tijanaetal,2014,VerlaanandSumihar,2016]
Duringthelast3years,theMahPhysgrouphasbeendevelopingandimprovingtheDataAssimila4onschemesfromatleastthreepointsofview,regardingthetwotypesofdataassimila4ontechniques:thevaria4onalmethods,andsequen4almethods.1. Thereducedadjointapproachtheore4calandidealizedtestcases(Altafetal,2013)2. Thequan4fica4onoftheimpactofdatainreservoirmodelingthroughobserva4onsensi4vity
matrixes(Krymskaya,2013)3. Ensemblespuriouscorrela4onsinEnsembleKalmanFilter(Fuetal,2015-2016)(Evans,
2009)4. Observa4onalspuriouscorrela4onssolu4onin4-dvaria4onalDataassimila4on(Luetal,
2015-2016)(Beney,1982)(Jackson,1991)5. Conserva4onofmassandPreserva4onofpossivityinphysicalmeaningvariablesforEnseble-
TypekalmanFilterAlgorithms(Tijanaetal,2014)andTheobserva4onimpactanalysismethodsforStormSurge-TSBOI-MMalgorithm(VerlaanandSumihar,2016)
Theore4calQues4onsToanalyzeand/orquan4fytheimpactoftheproperselec4onofadatasubsetBasedinpreviousworkofobserva4onsensi4vitymatrix(Krymskayaetal,2010)anditsproper4essuchas• Structure:symmetry,scaling,posi4ve(semi)definiteness• Matrixnorm• Uncertaintymeasurement• Evalua4onwithSVDandtraceanalysisforthequan4fica4onoftheimpactinmodeling.
Videos
Toanswertheques4on:isitpossible,underlinealityandsta4onarityassump4ons,tousetheobserva4onimpactanalysismethodsdevelopedbyVerlaanandSumihar,2016toimprovetheDataAssimila4onSchemesoverLOTOS-EUROSmodelforecas4ng?.Thiswillbeheldbystudyingtheimpactoftheobserva4onsatthemostrecentanalysisupdateunderEnsemblebasedschemesinLOTOSEUROSmodelforvolcanicash.
Theextensionofthetrj-4DVar(Luetal,2015)tobiggersystemsandmathema4callyfeasiblesolu4onstosolvethemodifiedcostfunc4oninaneworimprovedapproachadjointfree.Wefindfeasibletotryahybridschemefortheillcondi4onedprobleminordertodealwithreducedobserva4onalnoise.Theuseofaformalsensi4vityanalysisfortheperturba4onoftheinputstothetwoexperiencebasedmodifica4onsincostfunc4oninthetrj-4DVar(Luetal,2016underreview),specificallyinthepenaltyterminordertodevelopageneralizedmethodandprobethestabilityofthesolu4on.
Todevelopfurtherevidenceandformalizethepostulateofaccuracyofthemethodforaphysical-relatedwindowofassimila4on,regardingthedemonstratedaccuracyinassimila4onwindowsthatdoesnotcompromisetheconstantconcentra4onofpar4clesinatmosphere(Luetal,2016underreview).Ourpointofviewisthatdynamicallyitwillchangewithwindsprofile.
TotestthebacktrackingstrategyfortheEnsembleAssimila4onschemedeveloped(Fuetal,2015)againstthedevelopedbyLiuandXue(2016)anditsapproximateensemblecovariancelocaliza4on.Toevaluatetheeffectofnewlocaliza4onstrategiesdevelopedbyFuetal,2015overtheobserva4onsensi4vityanalysisproposedby(VerlaanandSumihar,2016)inLOTOS-EUROSmodelforvolcanicashdataassimila4on.
Tomergeboth“spurious”approachesfor“mul4pleobserva4ons”problems(variablelocaliza4on).
Research Proposal
GeneralObjec4ve“Tostartaresearchcollabora4onbetweenbothMathema4calSciencesDepartmentatUniversidadEAFITandAppliedMathema4calDepartmentatTUDelRinordertodevelopandimprovetheDataAssimila4onSchemesregardingtherigurosityandrelevanceofthetheore4calandprac4calissuesonthefield,overcomplexdynamicssuchasenvironmentalmodeling.ThisallowsforthemergingofthePhDprogramsandimprovesthecapabilityofourdepartmentstoprovidesolu4onstomodelingissuesworldwide.”
SpecificObjec4ves1. TostartajointresearchprogramforthedevelopmentofDataAssimila4onschemes.
2. Tostrengthentheresearchcapabili4esoftheSystemsandControlresearchlineoftheMathema4calModelingresearchgroupthroughtheforma4onofDoctoralstudentsinMathema4calEngineeringandAppliedMathema4csprogrammes.
3. Toimprovethesequen4almethodsfordataassimila4on.
4. Toimprovethevaria4onalmethodsfordataassimila4on.
5. Toperformproperlythemathema4calanalysisofthealgorithmsdeveloped,relatedtoinsigth,understanding,condi4oning,deepperformanceandsoon.
6. Tocontributesa4sfactorilytothefieldofdataassimila4onthroughdedevelopmentofnewschemesfromthesolu4onofthepar4cularproblemrelatedtoairqualityinColombia.
SpecificObjec4ves7. ToprovideinterdisciplinaryworkbetweentheresearchgroupsoftheSchoolofSciencesat
UniversidadEAFIT.
8. TodevelopanapproachfortheModellingoftheAirQualityinColombiathroughLOTOS-EUROSModelandlearnonhowthemodelbehavesindifferentregionsoftheworld.
9. Tocontributetoforecas4ngsystemsofAirQualityinColombiausingLOTOS-EUROSModelthroughDataAssimila4ontakingintoaccounttheneedformoredataprovidedbygovermentalagenciessuchasAreaMetropolitana.
10. ToanalyzeandevaluatethedynamicsunderlyingtheatmosphericbehaviorinAreaMetropolitana,astheini4alstepinthedevelopmentofacity-scale,pollu4onexposureriskmodeltoexploretheecologicalandhumanhealthimpactfromtheBiologicalSciencesframework.
SpecificObjec4ves11. TotraintwodoctoralstudentsunderajointschemebetweenthePhDinMathema4cal
Engineering(EAFIT)andAppliedMathema4cs(TUDELFT)programmes
12. ToimpacttheprogrammeofmasterinAppliedMathema4csatUniversidadEAFITwithresearchinDataAsimila4onwithapplica4onstoHistorymatching.
13. Tocontributetotheinterna4onalmobilityoffacultyandstudentsforresearch
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