United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap...

48
United States Sustainable Energy United States Department of Energy 1

Transcript of United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap...

Page 2: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Roadmap

• Energy Assessment

• Solution

• Phase I: Nuclear Energy

• Phase II: Solar Thermal Energy

• General Implementation

• Economics

• Conclusion

2

Page 3: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Energy Assessment

•Decommissioning Nuclear Energy Plants from 1970’s

•Loss of supply, increase of demand

•Coal plants number decreasing and cost increasing

•Heavily dependent on fossil fuels

•Carbon emissions

•Fluctuating prices

3

Page 4: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Current Energy (2008)

4

Page 5: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Solution (2050)

5

Page 6: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

U.S. Energy Future

• Reducing carbon footprint

• Less dependent on fossil fuels

• Stable economy

• Set examples for other countries with new technologies

6

Page 7: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Nuclear Energy

• One of the cleanest forms of energy

• Very cost-efficient

• Unit cost: $6-9 billion per reactor

• Implementation – 2015

• 210 nuclear reactors

• Completion – 2050

• 400 nuclear reactors

7

Page 8: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Generation III+

8

• Westinghouse AP1000

• 100 times safer than normal nuclear reactors

• Numerous innovative safety features

• 1154 MW output

Page 9: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Advantages

• More powerful reactors

• Passive Containment Cooling Systems

• Cost competitive with coal plants

• Creates total of 250,000 jobs

• AP 1000 is inherently safer than older designs

9

Page 10: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Disadvantages

• Public hesitant about nuclear energy

• Potential radiation damage

• Product from Cleveland Biolabs

10

Page 11: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Solar Thermal Energy

• Cost: $6 billion

• Output: over 900 MW

• Phase II—2035

• 45 plants

• Locations: Southwest

• Parabolic Trough Design

11

Page 12: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Advantages

• Cheap energy

• Electricity 50-70% more efficient than solar PV cells

• Able to heat to very high temperatures

• Hybridization

12

Page 13: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Disadvantages

• High costs

• Unable to focus diffused light

• Weather dependent

13

Page 14: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

General Implementation

• 2015—Nuclear

• 2035—Solar Thermal and Nuclear

• 2050—Plan finishes

• Natural gas as transition from coal

• Satisfies both parties in Congress

14

Page 15: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Economics

• Energy Policy Act of 2005

• Government funds up to 80% loan guarantees

• 15 percent tax break for nuclear

• 30 percent tax break for solar

• 77 billion dollars per year

• Cost competitive with Coal

15

Page 16: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Cost Comparison

Nuclear vs. Coal

Nuclear Coal

With Capital 4.3c/kWh 3.8c/kWh

Without Capital 1.87c/kWh 3.3c/kWh

Capital costs $3382/kW $2750/kW 16

Page 17: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Conclusion

• Sustainable energy is the future

• Nuclear and solar thermal security

• Role model for developing countries

17

Page 19: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

BACKUP SLIDES NUCLEAR

19

Page 20: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Nuclear Energy is Safe

• Impossible to meltdown

• Radiation is contained in multiple layers

• Coal plants reduce more radiation

20

Page 21: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

How to Store Nuclear Waste

• Before: stored in barrels inside building

• Fukushima: leakage problem

• AP1000: underwater at the base of the reactor

21

Page 22: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

What happens if the AP1000 is not approved? • Letter from Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards

• “We conclude that there is reasonable assurance that the revised design can be built d operated without undue risk to the health and safety of the public.”

• Easily replaceable

• Areva

22

Page 23: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

The Westinghouse Monopoly

• Not true

• AP1000- example on any Generation III+ plant.

• GE and Babcock & Wilcox no Generation III+ designs

• Reevaluating the energy situation in 2035

• Assess and potentially invest in new technology

23

Page 24: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Environmental Impact of Nuclear Energy • Releases hot water vapor only

• No radiation

24

Page 25: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Importing Uranium

• 1 lb. of Uranium = 20,000 lbs. of coal.

• Canada and Australia,

• good diplomatic relations

• The price does not fluctuate as much as fossil fuels.

• Enough uranium to easily outlive the plants built in 2050

25

Page 26: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Nuclear Proliferation

• It is impossible to build a nuclear weapon out of the uranium in a pressurized water reactor.

• New reactors have top security measures.

26

Page 27: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Safety Features of the AP1000

• Passive Core Cooling System

• Containment Isolation

• Passive Containment Cooling System

• Main Control Room Emergency Habitability System

• In-Vessel Retention of Core Damage

27

Page 28: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

AP1000 Reactor Diagram

28

Page 29: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Aftermath of Fukushima

• Obama Administration still supports nuclear

• Still wants $54.5 billion into nuclear (triple Bush)

• Agreed to monitor while Fukushima investigation occurred

• US is continuously upgrading safety requirements

• Japan Department of International Affairs: over 50% support increase/status quo as of June, 2011

29

Page 30: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Other Generation III+ Reactors

• Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR) by GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy: 1575 MW

• Advanced CANDU Reactor (ACR) by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited: 1200 MW

• European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) by Areva: 1650 MW

30

Page 31: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

BACKUP SLIDES SOLAR THERMAL

31

Page 32: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Errors in Current Policies

• PV cells unable to develop in large scale

• Inadequate funding

• Majority of technology was too expensive at the time of development

32

Page 33: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Parabolic Trough Plant

33

Page 34: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Storage: Thermocline System

34

Page 35: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Solar Thermal Prices

• Decrease 15% in the next decade with 50% loan guarantee from the government (World Bank)

• Definite cost reduction (NREL)

• Large-scale production is cheaper

• Become competitive with current energies by 2015

35

Page 36: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Potentials of Solar Thermal

• With 100% government loans

• 2015: 4 GW of electricity, 10% of US energy

• Energy production doubles several times over

• Avoids current nature preserves

36

Page 37: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Solar Thermal or Agriculture?

• Land competes with agriculture in the desert

• Solar Thermal generates larger profit: Imperial Valley Case Study

• Alfalfa: $750/year/acre

• Solar Thermal: $45,000/year/acre

• Used less water

• Other benefits: jobs, district revenues

37

Page 38: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Operation and Maintenance

• Operate and maintain 24 hours a day

• Initially lots of engineer/mechanic requirements

• Initial additional cost: $7,000

• Annual O&M Cost: $14,000

38

Page 39: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Electricity of Solar Thermal

• Currently: $0.11 / kWh

• By 2020: (without government subsidies) $0.03 / kWh

39

Page 40: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Why has our government not implemented solar thermal yet? • Decline in federal and state incentives

• No longer competitive with cheaper energy

40

Page 41: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Success Stories

• SEGS I-IX (Solar Energy Generating Systems)

• Around 800 MWs

41

Page 42: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

BACKUP SLIDES ECONOMICS

42

Page 43: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Methodology

• Existing Capacity: 1025.4 GW

• Increasing demand at 0.07 percent per year

• Necessary Demand 2050: 1364.9 GW

• Nuclear power retirements: 101.216 GW

• Coal power retirements: 72.03 GW

• Total Need: 512.7 GW

• At 1154 MW, we need 445 plants.

• 400 nuclear reactors and 45 solar thermal plants

43

Page 44: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Loan Guarantees

• Definition: An agreement that a government will pay an amount of money if a private company defaults on their engagements.

44

Page 45: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Tax Breaks

• 15 percent tax breaks for nuclear

• 30 percent tax break for solar thermal

• Only for time of construction, max 10 years

45

Page 46: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Funding

• Congress allocated $6 billion fund for sustainable energy

• No concrete plan proposed—fund unused

• 2010: DOE used $2 billion, 22 plants

• (ABC News)

46

Page 47: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

BACKUP SLIDES MISCELLANEOUS

47

Page 48: United States Energy in 2050 - WordPress.com...United States Department of Energy 1 . Roadmap •Energy Assessment •Solution ... •good diplomatic relations •The price does not

Coal

• Will be more expensive

• Is actually more radioactive than nuclear energy

• Pollutes the atmosphere

• Clean coal increases the cost exponentially

48