Unit 3: National Weather Service Hurricane

Information

Unit 3: National Weather Service Hurricane

Information

Outline

◆ Information: The Goal of Communication◆ Information from the National Hurricane

Center ◆ Information from your Local National Weather

Service Office

One Collective Goal

To Effectively Describe Threats from Hurricane Hazards on a Personal or Familial Level, eliciting Actions that Save Lives and Protect Property

Meeting the Goal

◆ National Hurricane Center: Describes the Big Picture of the Storm as a Unit. – Personalizing: Visuals…

• Cone/skinny black line• Satellite loops• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Categories• Probability graphics

– The question: “Should I/we put our plan into place?”

Meeting the Goal

◆ Weather Forecast Office: Describes the Storm as a Sum of Parts for Cities, Towns, Neighborhoods – Personalizing: Words and Pictures…

• Color coded hazards• Potential impacts described in real world terms• Virtual scenarios for cities, towns, neighborhoods,

individual structures (Coming soon)• Voices from staff who are also a part of the

community

– The question: “Might I/we die? Will our home or business survive?”

Meeting the Goal

o The NWS Need to speak with one voice being emphasized…today!

o …in context of ensuring the best response from all “publics”… today and tomorrow!

o Collaboration among National Centers and Local offices stressed… today!

o …And shared data platforms will complete the process… tomorrow!

Information from NHC

◆ Tropical Weather Outlook◆ Wind Fields (i.e. TWC graphic)◆ Probabilistic Storm Surge (what’s new)◆ Wind Speed Probabilities (review)

– Cumulative– Individual– Incremental

◆ Cone and Track (what’s new)◆ Text Products (what’s new)

Graphical Tropical Outlook

30 to 50% chance Tropical Storm Formation within 48h< 30% chance Tropical Storm Formation within 48h

> 50% chance Tropical Storm Formation within 48h

Tropical Weather Outlooks

◆ Graphic and text issued 4 times daily, from June 1 through November 30:– 1 PM, 7 PM, 1 AM, and 7 AM CDT– Based on user feedback, primarily from

EM and media customers◆ Reminder: Special Information continues in

updated Tropical Weather Outlook, not in separate text product as in the past

Cyclone Wind Field

Note: Colors represent highest possible winds at any point; all winds in color will not meet criteria

Probabilistic Storm Surge

90-100% Probability >10 foot surge, Landfall

70-80% Probability >10 foot surge, 24h prior to landfall

• Probabilities Provided for Surge Heights of 2 to 25 feet. • A relatively low probability of a high surge height is actionable:

• Example: Imagine a 20% Probability of a 20 foot surge. If the typical occurrence of this surge level is 2%, then this forecast is 1000% greater than what is “typical”!

Probabilistic Storm Surge

• Provides Quick Look at Range of Possible Surge Heights

Peak Surge Height, Probability Exceeds 10%, Ike

Probabilistic Storm Surge

For More Details:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutpsurge.shtml

Wind Speed Probabilities• Three Types of data:

• Cumulative: Aggregates entire forecast period. • Best for event planning. “Do I need to Prepare?”

• Individual: Forecasts for Individual 12 hour periods; best for deployment start/stop. “How much time do I have left to prepare?”

• *Incremental: Similar to Individual since based on forecast period. Difference: Values can increase in value by accounting for possibility that event begins in an earlier 12 hour period and continues into the next period. “What are the chances for cyclone winds at time x, within a given forecast period?”

* Note: Incremental probabilities are not shown on website but used in local NWS office products

Wind Speed Probabilities

Cumulative; 120 hour forecast, Hurricane Ike7 AM September 11, 2008

Area of Concern Area of Concern

Wind Speed Probabilities

H-42: How would you act on these data?

Alex, 7 PM June 28 2010

Wind Speed Probabilities

Text Table Cumulative and IndividualHurricane Ike, 4 AM CT September 11, 2008

Forecast hour/location

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Galveston 34 X 8(8) 34(42) 29(71) 12(83) 1(84) X(84)

Galveston 50 X X(X) 15(15) 31(46) 14(60) 1(61) X(61)

Galveston 64 X X(X) 4(4) 20(24) 12(36) 1(37) X(37)

Note: Even what appear to be small probabilities can be “large” in the greater scheme of preparedness. “37 percent” is akin to a two in five chance of sustained (1 min. average) hurricane force wind!

Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities

For More Details:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprobs.shtml

Cone and Track

Cone and Track◆ Track is the most probable location of the center of

the storm.– Impacts are often felt well away from the

cone/track◆ Cone is the area swept out by a circle covering 2/3 of

the most recent 5 year forecast error– This means that 1/3 of all cyclones will track

beyond the area of the cone at each time iteration!– For the entire period, 60 to 70% of all storms track

within the cone◆ Bottom Line: Never focus solely on the skinny

black line!

Cone and Track

Dennis, July 2005 8 to 10 foot (peak)

storm surge 100 miles east of Track!

Apalachicola National Forest, July 2005

Reduce Error Cone

1990 Today

5 to 10 years

Wilma (2005), redone

Reduced Error Cone: 2010 vs. 2008

Forecast Period(hours)

2/3 Prob. Circle radiusAtlantic Basin

(nautical miles)

12 36 (-3)

24 62 (-5)

36 85 (-7)

48 108 (-10)

72 161 (-9)

96 220 (-13)

120 285 (-20)

Forecast Period(hours)

2/3 Prob. Circle radiusAtlantic Basin

(nautical miles)

12 39

24 67

36 92

48 118

72 170

96 233

120 305

2010 2008

NHC Text Products

◆ “Old” favorites continue:– Public Advisory– Forecast Advisory– Forecast Discussion– Prob. Wind Speed – Valid Time Event Code Watch/Warning– Tropical Cyclone Outlook. Includes special

disturbance information.– Tropical Cyclone Update

New Look Public Advisory

◆ Organized into Sections. Keywords will Assist Humans and Computers to Parse Data

◆ Summary Moves to Top of Product◆ Watch/Warning Listed in Bullet Form for

easier reading and parsing◆ Much more at

– http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/help/tcp.shtml

New Look Public AdvisoryZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX HEADING TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH 90 MPH WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 96.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... *THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE *THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Extended Watch/Warning Times

◆ Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch: – When conditions possible at coastline in 48 hours

(up from 36 hours)– May be extended longer in unique circumstances

(i.e. Katrina)

◆ Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning:– When conditions expected at coastline in 36

hours (up from 24 hours)– May be extended longer in unique circumstances

(i.e., Katrina)

Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS)◆ Why?

– Need to Remove Impacts from Surge, Inland Flooding, Tornadoes, and central pressure readings which vary greatly on more factors than the wind category:

• Surge: – Hurricane Charley (2004) had small core of Category 4 Wind, but only a 4 to 7

foot Storm Surge– Hurricane Ike (2008) carried Category 2 wind across the Gulf, but the large girth

built very high seas and ultimately a 17+ foot Storm Surge• Pressure:

– Research and Data Acquisition Have shown that pressure does not always correlate to wind speed. Hurricane Felix (2007) was rated Category 5 (150 knot wind) with minimum central pressure of 929 mb, significantly higher than Rita’s 897 mb (155 knot wind)

• Flooding: – Tropical Storm Alison (2001), causing an estimated $5 billion in damage, was no

longer a named system when the majority of damage occurred!• Tornadoes:

– The outer rain bands and remnants of Hurricane Ivan (2004) produced 117 tornadoes in the U.S., similar to the number produced by Hurricane Beulah (1967) in Texas.

Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

◆ Wind-Impact Based – Details Provided from Recent First-Hand

experience and Wind Engineering Studies now included

– Wind Speeds are Related to Structural and Natural Damage in Great Detail

– No longer just “100 mph wind”. Now, “100 mph wind will produce specific damage.

◆ Much more at

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws.pdf

Cool Stuff Continues in 2011

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/

All available through

hurricanes.gov

http://www.emergency.info/nhc/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/index_podcast.xml

Outline

◆ Information: The Goal of Communication◆ Information from the National Hurricane

Center ◆ Information from your Local National

Weather Service Office

NOAA’s National Weather Service

Weather Forecast Office Hurricane Information and

Decision Support

Section Outline

◆Decision Support Services◆Web - Based Information◆Text – Based Information

Decision Support Services (DSS)◆ The WFO is, and has always been, your local source for

National Weather Service Hurricane Information◆ We take information from the National Hurricane Center

and tailor it for communities we serve◆ Our primary partners are many!

– Emergency Managers– Media– Health and Human Services– Transportation Authorities– Public Utilities– Elected Officials– Environmental and Agricultural entities– And more!

DSS: National Center/WFO Connection

NHC

Weather Hazards Communication: Wow!

KML

A Few Tools of the Trade…

iNWSMobile

NOAA All-Hazards Radio

iPhone/iPad

GIS

RSS Feeds

Weather Hazards Communication: Now◆ Rapid Technological Advances Mean…

– Information anytime, anywhere– Users can pull information they need– Weather decision support can be specialized– Better modeling, local forecaster experience

increasing our skill– Ability used to provide confidence levels of

forecast weather◆ Graphics/text combination tell the story best◆ NWS and partners are leveraging technology to

provide array of information prior to/during critical weather

DSS: More than “Pushing Data”

◆ E-mail Notifications◆ Teleconferences◆ Webinars/Web Briefings◆ Onsite Support◆ Online Spreadsheets◆ NWSChat◆ Weather-at-a-Glance Graphics◆ Breaking News Web Updates◆ Post Storm Web Reports

E-mail NotificationsPotential Impacts and Confidence:

• Showers and thunderstorms will begin to affect Cameron/Willacy as early as Tuesday.  Confidence:  High.

•  Gusts to 35 mph in squalls are possible Wednesday and Thursday.  Confidence: Medium.•  More widespread rain is likely Wednesday through Thursday.  Confidence:  High•  Total Rainfall amounts in the RGV may be 1 to 2 inches with isolated totals near 4

inches.  Confidence in rainfall forecast:  Low•  Open ocean seas should remain below 12 feet.  Confidence in this forecast:  Low. (Note:

Wave height and long period swell highly dependent on speed, size, and strength.)  •  Rip Current Threat should increase to high by Tuesday, and could become High to

Extreme Wednesday and Thursday.  Confidence:  High.•  Breaking waves on the beaches will begin to climb as early as late Tuesday; Water run-

up and wave setup Wednesday and Thursday.  Whether the waves reach the dune line is indeterminate.  Confidence in wave/water increase:  High.

•  Isolated tornadoes are possible late Tuesday through Wednesday.  Confidence: Medium.• Oil impact:

• Based on current forecast:  Nil for the Kenedy-Cameron County Coast.  Confidence:  Very High

Alex, Three Days Out

E-mail Notifications

◆ Allow WFO Staff to tell a story of the most critical potential impacts (the human touch)

◆ WFO Staff interpret complex uncertainty data and whittle down to confidence thresholds

◆ “Bottom line” information is often provided, clarifying decisions

Teleconferences

• Effective Means for Quick Local Weather and Impact Briefing followed by Q&A

• Allows for statewide calls to focus on logistical needs

• Often accompanied by graphics in the form of a web meeting

Web Briefings

Go To Meeting®

Web Briefing/Go To Meeting®

◆ Combine graphics and voice to describe the situation

◆ “A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words”: A handful of slides can reduce the length of a briefing

◆ More and more WFO’s will be posting web briefings and updating frequently– Helpful to EM staff who cannot attend a scheduled

Go To Meeting/teleconference but need to reference data at any time

Onsite Support

Meteorologist-In-Charge Gene Hafele, WFO Houston/Galveston, briefing during Ike

City of Brownsville HUREX 2009

WCM Dan Noah, WFO Tampa Bay (bending), briefing Lee County, FL, during Charley

Online Spreadsheet

NWSChat

Weather-At-A-Glance Graphics

English En Español

Weather Stories

Additional Text May Be Included:

“Blog-casting”

“Breaking News” Updates

News Banner: Aftermath

Post-Storm Web Reports

DSS: Expert Interpretation, Locally

◆ Pre-Event: E-mails provide a “heads-up” during/prior to planning stage. We “push” to raise primary partner alertness.

◆ Watch/Warning Phase: Teleconferences, Web Briefings, NWSChat, “Breaking News”, provide continuous data flow. WFO and EM’s “push” and “pull” information to ensure maximum communication

◆ Aftermath: News updates and Post Storm Reports, when issued promptly, can assist with damage calculations based on hard data (such as measured wind and rainfall).

Course Outline

◆Decision Support Services◆Web - Based Information◆Text – Based Information

WFO Tropical Pages

The first place to look before a cyclone forms

Tropical Cyclone Decision Support National Website

weather.gov/ghls

Graphical Tropical Cyclone Hazard Examples

“gHLS” (Graphical Tropical Cyclone Hazards)

◆ Graphical Hurricane Local Statement◆ What Is it?

– More than a Picture– Incorporates Uncertainty (probabilities) to evaluate risk,

threat, and potential impact– Combining deterministic (“the forecast”) with probabilistic

(“the uncertainty”) information gives decision makers the most realistic planning scenario

– Forecasters use expertise and local knowledge to enhance outcomes

– Available for each WFO

gHLS Content

◆ Five parameters available– Wind– Storm Surge Flooding– Inland Flooding– Tornadoes– Marine Hazards

◆ Color-coded for risk, threat, and impact– Standard scheme applied :

• Yellow (low) to Magenta (extreme)• Some offices add a “Very low” level

◆ Potential impact wording similar around Gulf Coast– Varies up the eastern seaboard– Algorithms tailored for Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula

gHLS Example: Hazard Overview

gHLS: Mouseover Text

Inland Flood

gHLS: Mouseover Text

Wind

gHLS: Potential Impact

Wind

“Expressions of Uncertainty”◆ Why? First-of-its-kind sophisticated algorithm applies

probabilistic wind forecasts to “Hurrevac” forecasts and produces certainty terms in legacy products.

◆ What? When a watch or warning is issued, the algorithm injects the following words:– Tropical Storm Conditions (unqualified, expected,

possible)– Hurricane Conditions (unqualified, expected,

possible)– Tropical Storm Conditions with Hurricane

Conditions Possible.

Tropical Storm Fay, 2008 – WFO Miami

and WFO Melbourne, FL

Course Outline

◆Decision Support Services◆Web - Based Information◆Text – Based Information

Text Products: Still Useful◆ Hurricane Local Statement (HLS)◆ Public Information Statements◆ Extreme Wind Warning (rare)◆ Area Forecast Discussions◆ Zone and Coastal Forecasts, with

Expressions of Uncertainty◆ Embedded Short Fused Hazards

– Tornado Warnings– Flash Flood Warnings– Marine (Waterspout) Warnings

The Hurricane Local Statement◆ Better “Production” tools at NWS Offices means…

– General Information in Overview– Critical Information in Segments

• No more “burying the lead”• Primary hazard/impacts first• Info in segments should be brief(er)

– Segment ordering logical– Software improves data load = much quicker

transmission– Less/no redundancy, except in critical case (i.e.

“statement heard ‘round world, Aug. 28, 2005 Katrina)

Hurricane Local Statement: New in 2011

◆ Simplifying the Message, Further:– Only Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings.

“Inland” Warnings Discontinued!– Mandatory Overview Section (elements shown on

following slide)– Segments to Concentrate on Hazard Types and

Threats (specific headers correlate to hazard types and “mousever” text on web pages)

– First Issuance will be Abbreviated; Allows End Users to Receive Necessary Codes to post all Watches and Warnings minutes after the Breakpoints are updated

Hurricane Local Statement: Overview

◆ …Headline…◆ .New Information…◆ .Areas Affected…◆ .Watches/Warnings…◆ .Storm Information…◆ .Situation Overview…◆ .Precautionary/Preparedness Actions…◆ .Next Update…

Overview Example (2011 style)...ALEX MOVING FASTER WITH IMPACTS FROM RAIN WIND AND TIDES ARRIVING EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.NEW INFORMATION…UPDATED TO MOVE EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM WIND AND RAIN UP TO WEDNESDAY NOON FROM WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT.

.AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... KENEDY...COASTAL WILLACY…COASTAL CAMERON…INLAND WILLACY…INLAND CAMERON COUNTY…AS WELL AS FOR MARINE INTERESTS FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING THE LAGUNA VISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...STARR...HIDALGO COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7N...LONGITUDE 93.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TX. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 70 MPH. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

Hurricane Local Statement2011 Edition (Alex Redux, NWS Brownsville)

≤36 hours out: Warning, Four Segments

Segment #1Segment #3

Segment #4

Hurricane Warning

Tropical Storm Warning

Segment #2

Tropical Storm Watch

HLS Segment ExampleTXZ251-256-257-300400- /O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- 1132 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN RAIN BANDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN RAIN BANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS SUNSET AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR LATER BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE HIGHER DEPENDING ON WHETHER ALEX STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF.

IMPACT STATEMENT: DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED. MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS ORCHARDS AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS.

HLS Segment

(Continued)

TXZ251-256-257-300400- /O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- 1132 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...INLAND FLOODING... OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVIER BANDS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN. SQUALLS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY NOON THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES BUT COULD BE AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FALL.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RESIDENTS CAN PLAN ON THE FOLLOWING IMPACTS: THIS MAY BECOME A DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION! PERSONS LIVING IN OR NEAR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATION IMMEDIATELY. SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN OTHER AREAS. SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET. OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED UNTIL WELL AFTER FLOOD WATERS RECEDE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHT OF THE STORM TIDE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COAST GIVEN REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IN SIZE AND INTENSITY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE TRACK OF ALEX. THE LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS A STORM TIDE WHICH COULD RANGE UP TO 7 FEET...RESULTING IN 2 TO 5 FEET OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. HIGHEST INUNDATION WOULD FAVOR AREAS WHERE WATER POOLS...INCLUDING THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL ENTRANCE...PORT ISABEL...AND LAGUNA VISTA. THE COMBINATION OF WAVE SET UP...TIDE RUN UP...AND STORM SURGE WILL BRING WATER TO THE DUNES BY HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND COULD BREACH THE SEA WALLS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Pre-Storm Public Information Statement

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TXXXX AM CDT DOW MMM DD YYYY

...ACTIONS TO TAKE PRIOR TO A HURRICANE THREATENING YOUR AREA...PERSONS LIVING IN THE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS SHOULD ALWAYS BE PREPAREDFOR A HURRICANE. IMPACTS FROM HURRICANES CAN RANGE FROM MINOR TO CATASTROPHIC. A HURRICANE IS DEFINED BY THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...BUT INLAND FLOODING...COASTAL FLOODING...AND TORNADOES CAN PRODUCE MEMORABLE IMPACTS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. EACH STORM IS DIFFERENT...SO BE SURE TO CHECK OUR WEB PAGE...WEATHER.GOV/RGV...FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND THREAT LEVELS FOR WIND...INLAND FLOODING...COASTAL FLOODING...AND TORNADOES.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION CAN MITIGATE IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WHETHER YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE OR NOT:*SECURE YOUR HOME!TIGHTLY COVER ALL AREAS WHERE WIND COULD PENETRATE. REMEMBER...ONCE WIND PENETRATES YOUR HOME...THE PRESSURE EXERTED CAN LIFT A ROOF AND KNOCK DOWN WALLS IN MOMENTS. A SEALED HOME IS YOUR FIRST STEP TO SAFETY. THE FOLLOWING METHODS ARE RECOMMENDED:

FOR WINDOWS:

HURRICANE SHUTTERS...PREFERABLY TESTED AT MIAMI DADE COUNTY FLORIDA CODE.HURRICANE COVERINGS SUCH AS CORRUGATED STEEL OR ALUMINUM.HURRICANE STRENGTH GLASS...PREFERABLY TESTED AT 120 MPH OR HIGHER. PLYWOOD: FIVE EIGHTH INCH OR GREATER SECURED BY TWO AND ONE HALF INCH OR LONGER SCREWS OR SPECIAL CLIPS.CHECK ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS FOR LEAKS WHERE DRIVING RAIN COULD ENTER. SEAL BY CAULKING OR ADDING ADDITIONAL TRIM. PLACE TOWELS OR OTHER WATER ABSORBING MATERIAL WHERE WATER COULD ENTER YOUR HOME.MOVE VALUABLE ITEMS SUCH AS FURNITURE...CLOTHING...AND PAPERWORK THAT COULD BE WATER DAMAGED AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS.

FOR DOORS:REINFORCE OR CROSS BRACE GARAGE DOORS. REINFORCE DOUBLE ENTRY DOORS WITH HEAVY DUTY FOOT AND HEAD BOLTS.REINFORCE SINGLE ENTRY DOORS WITH ADDITIONAL DEAD BOLTS.

Inform the public of the need to take immediate shelter in an interior portion of a well-built structure due to the onset of extreme tropical cyclone winds.

Issuance Criteria - An EWW issued when both of the following criteria are met:

- Tropical cyclone is a CAT 3 or greater.

- Winds of 100 knots (115 mph) or greater are expected to occur in a WFO’s county warning area within one hour.

- Valid time 2 hours or less

Extreme Wind Warning (EWW)

EWW – Trigger to go to that final safe place – in your PLAN!

EWW: “Hide From the Wind”

The Need For EWW

Turner Agri-Civic Center Arcadia, FL

Hurricane Charley

Photo Courtesy of Scott Moe

“I never felt so helpless and small in all my life.” David Gaylord St. Petersburg, FL

~1,400 people were in this auditorium!Close call with tragedy!

“All we could hear was yelling and screaming as widespread panic set in”

Area Forecast Discussions

◆ Place you inside the WFO Forecast Team’s “Mind”

◆ More and more are being written in plain language…

◆ …But retain scientific reasoning behind forecaster decisions

◆ May use attention-catching headlines to emphasize threat

In Summary…◆ This is not your father’s NWS!◆ Multimedia, multi platform communication methods

are the new normal◆ Simplifying the message for quick decision making◆ Information sharing (push and pull) vs. text “product”

issuance (push only)◆ One Survey says…

– EM and related partners appreciate this approach, and want more!

◆ The Future: Skies the Limit? Localized Visualization, Mobile Apps, Two-way video sharing, etc. are coming!

Questions or Comments

Thank you for your active participation!

Thank you for your active participation!