Unit 2

Ch 6-11

Inputs to US Government

Public opinion

• Shared attitudes of many people on politics, issues, etc.

• Measured by opinion polls– Usually by professional polling

companies – media & politicians pay

– Must be valid to be reliable

Why do politicians care?

• Public opinion = election success

• Strategy – what issues to focus on– Not what to believe (usually)

– Only if newly important issue – (no evidence of previous policy stance)

– There is video evidence if politicians change their minds (flip-floppers!)

Is this bad?

• We want consistency– But we also want representation

– Our opinions change over time, but we want politicians to be decisive

• If they want to win, they don’t contradict public opinion

2 ideas about representatives

• Delegates– Sent as mouthpieces of constituency

– Follow public opinion to the letter, no conscience or judgment allowed

• Trustees– Given autonomy to make decisions

– Use best judgment for public interest

Delegates & trustees

• Difference in real life– Whatever the voters want

• Politicians want to be trustees, voters want them to be delegates

Reliability in polling

• Polls are more reliable if:

– Random & representative sample• Allows for smaller margin of error

– Valid, unbiased questions & analysis

Potential problems w/polls

• Selection bias– People choose not to participate

• Biased/leading questions

• Intensity– Polls don’t always measure passion

• Latency– Ideas on the “back burner”

Push polls

• Attempt to “push” respondents to desired result

• Parties & candidates– Biased, leading questions

– Try to create bandwagon effect

Important opinion polls

• Presidential approval rating– Most important poll in US politics

– Every week since 1937

– Typical phrasing:

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?"

Presidential approval rating

• Honeymoon period– Usually high at beginning of term

– Americans give Pres a chance

• Fluctuates based on policies & response to events

• Always drops later when promises become disappointing reality

George W. Bush

• Holds record for both highest & lowest approval ratings ever

• Highest – 90% Sept 2001

• Lowest – 25% Oct 2008

George W. Bush

Barack Obama

Presidential approval rating

• POTUS’s relationship w / Congress– Other party unlikely to stand up to a

popular POTUS

– If POTUS is unpopular – own party runs from him (esp. in an election yr)

Other important polls

• Campaign polls– “If the election were held today, who

would win your vote?”

– Problems:• What if they don’t vote?• What if they change their minds?

• Reliable if likely voters asked close to election date

Other important polls

• Exit polls– Voters polled in the parking lot

– Reliable:• Not a prediction – an actual vote

– Unreliable:• Random/representative sample?

– News media use this to predict results – usually very good

Bad exit polls

• 1980 – Reagan / Carter– NBC declared for Reagan at 8:30 EST

– Did PST Dems decide not to vote?

• 2000 – Bush / Gore– Florida debacle

Mass Media

• Media ownership–America compared to world

–US: Need ratings for revenue

Mass Media

• Media history–Early – newspapers political

–Progressive Era – crusaders

–Modern – strive for impartiality

Mass Media

• Media bias–Reporters tend to be liberal

–Any bias in reporting tends to be against incumbents• Crusading for weak against strong

• Desire for interesting stories

Mass Media

• Media restrictions–FCC

–Fairness Doctrine

Mass Media

• Media and politics–Don’t cover in-depth issues

–Campaign events

–Campaign polls (horse race)

Mass Media

• Media and politics–Releases & briefings

–Press conferences / press secretary

–Leaks – trial balloons• On/off record / backgrounders

Mass Media

• What limits influence of media?–Selective exposure

• Avoid exposure to media that goes against your beliefs

–Selective perception• Filter what you see through your

own bias (hear what you want to)

Mass Media

• What limits influence of media?–Attentive public

• Only about 30-35% of Americans pay attention to the news at all