Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV) Costing Considerations - … Air Vehilce... · Uninhabited Air...
Transcript of Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV) Costing Considerations - … Air Vehilce... · Uninhabited Air...
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Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV)Costing Considerations
PSI Team
SCAF Workshop
22 November 2010
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UAV Design Considerations
1. Role2. Design quality – military / commercial?3. Performance altitude, speed, endurance4. Propulsion5. Power source6. Power requirements for flight & payload7. Payload 8. Ground environment
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UAV Role(s)• Reconnaissance
• Communications Relay
• Earth Observation, remote prospecting
• Law Enforcement (Traffic, Border control, Agricultural monitoring)
• Offensive activities against Land/ maritime targets
• Air combat, electronic warfare……….
• Any mix of the above!!
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UAV Design – military / commercial• Military specifications arduous• Military materials and components costly• Design certification/ acceptance different• Historic
– schedules long– projects overtime/ cost etc
• Good commercial design reduces timescales, uses proven materials, components and may trade-off some performance for early fielding
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UAV - Performance
• Performance– Endurance >48 hours
– Speed ~150Kts maximum
– Altitude 40,00ft plus
• All of the above are inter-related and some performance attributes will be role dependent and large drivers of cost.
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UAV – Propulsion
• Air breathing– Reciprocating – Turbo-prop– Jet
• Chemical (rocket)• Electric
• Other propulsion nuclear or more exotic types ruled out on grounds of safety or immaturity.
• Final option likely to be a mix for resilience and performance
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UAV – Power requirements
• Battery (sustain and engine electric start)
• Payload with growth capability
• Compile equipment list with power drains
• Total + safety margin + growth
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UAV – Power sources
• Battery• Generator• Photo-voltaic, ~12% minimum efficiency
• Other sources nuclear, chemical etc are ruled out due to increased safety and certification issues.
• Final option likely to be a mix for resilience and performance
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Photo-voltaic family
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Photo-voltaic costs $/Watt
y = 0.0672x2 - 270.6x + 272432R² = 1
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Series1
Power (Series1)
Poly. (Series1)
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UAV – Payload
• Mixed systems– Data link– Flight Control– Sensors (Electro-optic, SAR– etc)– Communications – Collision Avoidance– Potential capacity for Defensive Aids /Weapons
(internal bay)
• Satcom
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UAV – Ground environment
• Handling & other facilities• Communications & control• Mission planning• Operator & Maintainer training• Maintenance policy• Operations & Mission Data collection &
analysisNeeded but excluded from this analysis
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UAV – Costing Considerations
• Handling & other facilities• Communications & control• Mission planning• Operator & Maintainer training• Maintenance policy• Operations & Mission Data collection &
analysisNeeded but excluded from this analysis
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PRICE Systems Team Option
OTS Reconnaissance UAV
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UAV – Reconnaissance Option
• High altitude good commercial build• OTS Payload off the shelf avionic (10KW max)
– Communications Relay– Electro-optic (visible and dual band infra-red)– Synthetic aperture radar– Unused 250Kg capacity internal– External standard wired hard points
• OTS Propulsion small jet turbine(150Kts max)• OTS Power (15KW capability for growth)
– thin film photo voltaic– battery
Not the place for cutting edge technologies
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UAV – Assumptions• Lighter Than air (LTA) technology (Helium)• Dry mass ~ 3.6 Tonnes• With LTA ~200KGs• Power requirements 15KW• Propulsion SAFRAN TR60-5 (1200lbs thrust)• Size ~ 16m diameter x 3m tall• Usable area 640 sq metres, • usable LTA volume 3290 cu metres• Composite airframe• Payload pack• Expandable airframe
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PRICE What could it look like?
Picture courtesy www.freakingnews.com
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Illustrative Mass DispersionUAV Illustrative Mass KGs
UAV power KGs Propulsion Airframe Payload Ballast Fuel
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UAV – OTS Payload• EO/IR• Weapons/ DASS• Synthetic Aperture Radar (intermittent)• Data Link• Satellite Communications• Navigation• Communications Relay• Flight Management System• Anti-collision radar• Power supplies/ filters
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RESULTS
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UAV Point Estimates
Development £20M
SEPM £75M
Production £45M
Total £140M
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Results – in round numbers
• 1,500,000 total hours UAV Acquisition
• Non Recurring costs £20M
• UPC (30 off) £1.47M
• 50%’ile £147M, £7.5M standard deviation
• Project cost range £138M -£157M @ 10 & 90% confidence intervals
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Cost Split
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Cost – Where the Activities Occur
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Where the hours are spent