Unifying principles for modelling, Brad Evans, ACEAS Grand 2014

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Unifying principles for terrestrial ecosystem carbon, water and land-surface modelling. eMAST - Brad Evans, ACEAS Grand 2014 - without animation

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  • 1. Unifying principles for terrestrial ecosystem carbon, water and land- surface modelling Presentation by Brad Evans

2. The problem: CO2 is rising The Ecosystem Modeller seeks to: Generally, understand the effects of CO2 increases on ecosystems Quantify negative feedbacks the impact of rising CO2, land surface warming and extreme events on ecosystems 6CO2 + 6H20 C6H12O6 + 6O2 light energy chlorophyll + nutrients 3. IPCC Consensus: CO2 Fertilization WUE NPP WUE = GPP ET NPP = GPP - R N & P 4. Residential land sink 5. Complexity of global models What models dont currently do well (mostly) Ecosystem dynamics generally Migration Fire Logging Harvesting Insect outbreaks Decomposition Phosphorus cycle Veg-soil-atmosphere continuum Land use, land use change and forestry generally 6. Three unifying principles 1. Observations, Models and Understanding Integration of empirical science and modelling increases scientific understanding of observed phenomena. 2. Transparency, Evaluation, Confidence Reproducible models, transparently evaluated against empirical data, enhances community confidence in their efficacy. 3. Innovation, Standards, Simplicity Continuous technical innovation, adaptation of standards and mitigating against unnecessary complexity underpins simplicity. 7. The viscous observation model policy cycle (1) MORE Observations (2) BETTER models are developed (3) Models evaluated against observations (4) EVEN BETTER Models (5) BETTER Policy 8. This project is supported by the Australian National Data Service (ANDS). ANDS is supported by the Australian Government through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy Program and the Education Investment Fund (EIF) Super Science Initiative. For more information visit the ANDS website ands.org.au and Research Data Australia services.ands.org.au.