UNDP RBA Workshop on MDG-Based National Development Strategies Module 2: Technical Issues UN...

UNDP RBA Workshop on MDG-Based

National Development Strategies

Module 2: Technical Issues

UN Millennium ProjectFebruary 27-March 3, 2006

www.unmillenniumproject.org2

Agenda

Objectives of MDG based needs assessments

Overview of different costing methodologies

The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector

Process of MDG based planning


Motivation

MDG Needs Assessments aim to flip the question:

FROM: How close can we get to the MDGs under the current constraints?

TO: What will it take to achieve the MDGs?


Principles of Development Strategies that are MDG-based

Typical strategy today MDG-based development strategy

1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline YEARYEAR

? 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline

MDG target

Level of MDG

progress


Objectives of an MDG Needs Assessment

Answer the question: “What will it take to achieve the MDGs?” Translate the MDGs into operational targets “Localize” the MDGs Develop a strategy for increasing “absorptive capacity”

Can be used as a framework for assessing needs of other relevant sectors for the country

Strengthen coherence between planning and budget processes and guide programming of expenditures

Provide a monitoring and accountability framework

Support the national policy dialogue and negotiations with development partners


Approach to Aligning National Development Strategies with the MDGs

MDG needs assessment

through 2015

Long-term plan aligned with

the MDGs

MDG-based development

strategy

Quantify inputs needed to meet MDGs

“What” & “How Much”

Identify policies and institutions to meet needs

“How To”

Short-term 3-5 year strategy to launch 10-year strategy, including:

MTEF

Macro framework

“What needs to be done right now?”


What is an MDG Needs Assessment?

Who and where are the poor?– Identifying the population in need– Disaggregating the analysis

What needs to be done?– Focus on public investments (capital & operating costs)– Needs Assessment from now until 2015– Goods, services, infrastructure

How much?– Local unit costs x population in need– Human resources required to meet each MDG– Infrastructure needs


MDG Needs Assessment Approach

1.Identify interventions

2.Specify targets for each

intervention

3.Estimate resource needs

4.Check results


Suggested Investment Clusters

1. Rural development

2. Urban development

3. Health systems

4. Education

5. Gender equality

6. Environment

7. Science, technology and innovation

8. Cross-national infrastructure

9. Public sector management


Agenda




Process of MDG-based planning


Limitations of MDG Needs Assessments

Question addressed: “Which interventions are needed across sectors to achieve the

Goals, and what are the associated requirements in terms of human resources, infrastructure, and financing?”

Limitations: It is time intensive to develop detailed investment models Data needs are high Cross-sectoral dynamics cannot be modeled dynamically, but

require iterative adjustment of coverage targets Requires links to macroeconomic dynamics that need to be

modeled with the help of separate tools Does not identify complementary policies and institutional

reforms


Comparison with ICOR-based Approaches

Question addressed: “What aggregate level of investment is needed to meet the

income poverty goal?”

Limitations compared to needs assessment: Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure

requirements Provide no guidance to programming public expenditures Lump together public and private investments, and don’t

identify required changes in composition of investments Ignore MDG interventions that do not have a direct impact on

growth Historical ICORs and poverty elasticities apply only to marginal

changes and perform poorly in predicting growth and poverty rates


Comparison with Approaches Based on Input-outcome Elasticities

Question addressed: “What aggregate level of investment is required to meet

individual Goals?”

Limitations compared to needs assessment: Can only model a small number of aggregate variables across

few sectors – often ignore interventions from other sectors Bound by number of variables and equations necessary to

close the models mathematically- so often do not reflect the full range of inputs needed to achieve the goals

Provide no guidance to programming public expenditures Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure

requirements Cannot avoid double-counting of interventions across sectors Based on historical elasticities that apply only to marginal

changes


Comparison with Approaches Based on Aggregate Unit Costs

Question addressed: “What is the gap between current expenditures and those

required to achieve each Goal?”

Limitations compared to needs assessment: Unit costs are based on current or historic expenditures, which

may be a poor guide to future expenditures Provides little guidance to programming expenditures Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure

requirements for MDGs Typically do not differentiate between capital and operating

costs Address only a subset of interventions within a sector Cannot incorporate cross-sectoral dynamics


Agenda






MDG Needs Assessment Approach

1.Identify interventions

2.Specify targets for each

intervention

3.Estimate resource needs

4.Check results


Education Needs Assessment Approach (1)

Country demographic data

Capital and recurrent costs per student

TOTAL COSTS

Students reached by interventionsTarget coverage rates for:

•Primary Education•Secondary Education •Adult Literacy

Cost components for key interventions


Education Needs Assessment Approach (2)

Direct and indirect

financial costs _

Estimation of teachers needed

Estimation of classrooms

needed

Capacity Requirements

_ _

= Total Education Needs


Key Assumptions for Education Needs Assessment

Interventions: Comprehensive set of interventions to achieve primary education, secondary education and literacy

Targets: Coverage targets should aim at meeting MDGs for entire population

Investment model: Service delivery models should reflect local needs and education structure; unit costs should reflect costs for reaching hard-to-reach populations.

Financing: User fees should be eliminated for primary education


Interventions Needed to Meet Universal Primary Education (UPE) Goal

1. Direct Primary Education interventions: infrastructure, human resources, learning materials, demand side interventions, etc

2. Secondary Education interventions because:

For marginalized groups, post-primary education is needed to realize sufficient returns on education

Availability of secondary education increases parents’ incentive to send children to primary school

Secondary school graduates are needed to meet supply of primary school teachers

3. Adult literacy programs


Primary School Interventions (1/2)

Category Intervention Target by 2015Classrooms 1 per 40 childrenToilets 1 per classroom, separate for boys and girlsFurniture 1 blackboard per classroom, 1 desk and chair per

studentTeacher housing Where appropriate, as an incentive to retain teachers

Transportation facilities School buses where needed*Other Construction Administrative facilities*Number of teachers (with emphasis on female teachers)

1 teacher for 40 students

Salaries Raised to 3.5*GDP per capitaTraining Pre-service and in-service training for all teachersNon-teaching staff Administrators, supervisors, trainers, as needed*

Infrastructure

Human resources

* Not included in MP preliminary cost estimates


Primary School Interventions (2/2)

* Not included in preliminary cost estimates

Category Intervention TargetSchool fees Abolition of school fees for Primary EducationSubsidies for girls 50 percent of girls by 2015School meals and/or take home rations

50 percent of children by 2015

Other subsidy schemes such as Conditional Cash Transfers

As appropriate, for specific excluded groups*

Uniforms, textbooks and other learning material

1 set per student by 2015

Pedagogical and curriculum reform

As identified by local experts

Improvement in capacity at the Ministry and local level

In line with growing size of school system*

Empowerment of local communities

Needed to participate effectively in school-level decisions*

Monitoring, evaluation and data collection

As needed to track progress towards the targets*

Demand-side interventions

Other interventions


Primary Education Targets

For primary education the net enrolment rate and primary completion rate to reach 100 percent, gross enrolment rate to reach 107 percent by 2015

The gender parity target in primary education was to be achieved in 2005


Post-Primary Interventions and Targets

Category Target by 2015 Intervention CategoriesTransition rate of 80 percent Infrastructure (classrooms, toilets, furniture,

teacher housing, transportation, libraries, sports facilities, laboratories)Human resources (teachers, non teaching staff)Demand side interventions (abolition of school meals, subsidies for girls, school meals and/or take home rations, uniforms, textbooks, other learning materials, other subsidy schemes)

Other interventions (curriculum reform, management, monitoring and oversight, capacity enhancement at Ministerial level)

Adult Literacy 100 percent literacy rates Adult literacy programs (human resources, learning material etc.)

Secondary Education


Estimating Resource Needs: Education Needs Assessment Tool

The Education Needs Assessment Tool allows users to translate intervention and target choices into quantitative estimates of financial and human resource needs


Key Drivers of Cost and Variation

The key drivers of cost and variation in a comprehensive country-wide needs assessment are:

Differences in population in need

Differences in choice of interventions

Differences in income levels


Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessments

“Absorptive capacity” constraints are real in the short term, but can be gradually relaxed through investments in human resources, infrastructure and management systems

Identify all interventions that require full or partial public financing

Include capital and operating costs for all sectors

Undertake total, not incremental costing

Strive for maximum disaggregation

Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions can be adapted to countries’ needs. No “one-size-fits all”!

Periodic revision of targets/interventions based on new information and implementation of programs


Agenda






Process of Making National Development Strategies MDG-based

High-level political commitment

Nationally-owned

Integrated into on-going processes

MDGs as outcome indicators

Inclusive with participation from key actors

Transparent

Regularly reviewed


Illustrative Organizational Structure

Office of the President/Prime Minister/Ministry of Planning and Finance

MDG Strategy Group(led by Ministry of Finance or Planning, participation from line ministries, representation

from UNCT)

Thematic Working Groups(led by line ministries, including civil society, donors and UNCT, among others, covering

different investment clusters such as rural and urban development, health, education, gender equality, environment, science and technology)


Example: the Process in Ethiopia

Process– Existing PRSP technical teams brought into process– UN Agencies supported analysts in each sector– UNDP coordinated with WB/UNCT together with the

Government

Milestones– MDG needs assessment launched in August 2004– MDG sector needs assessment drafts ready by

November 2005– Stakeholder workshop and consultations– Macroeconomic framework and synthesis work with

support of World Bank– Draft PASDEP ready by December 2005

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