Undocumented Immigrants IRCA legalized 2.7 million people Illegal immigrants current estimate 11.8...

Undocumented Immigrants

• IRCA legalized 2.7 million people• Illegal immigrants current estimate 11.8

million people.• Annual inflow 500,000 per year.• 60% cross the border• 40% overstay their visa• After entering country, 1-2% chance of being

caught.

Unauthorized Population

• Estimated at 11.8 million.• Mexico (57%)• El Salvador (4%)• Guatemala (4%)• Philippines (2%)• Honduras (2%)

Citizenship in the U.S.

• By birth (even if parents are illegal, or here for a short period of time)

• By birth abroad if parents are citizens• By adoption• By naturalization if they comply with

conditions specified by law

Undocumented people have a few rights

• Subject to equal protection laws– Protected against unreasonable searches and seizures– Protected by Fair Labor Standards. Minimum wage

protection.– Not entitled to free medical care or college attendance.

Illegal alien children are entitled to schooling.– Patriots Act made further distinctions between

immigrants, both legal and illegal and citizens.

• Have the right to K-12 education (Plyer v. Doe)• Have the right to emergency medical care

Critical Dates in New Era• 1986

– Under pressure from U.S. Mexico Joins GATT• Opens Economy to Global Trade and Investment

– U.S. Congress Passes IRCA• Grants Legal Status to 2.3 Million Mexicans• Criminalizes Undocumented Hiring• Begins Militarization of Border

• 1994– Mexico and US Join Together in NAFTA

• Lowers barriers to cross-border movements of goods, capital, resources, information, services, and certain classes of people

– US Launches Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego• All-out Effort to Stop the Inflow of Mexican labor• Erects Steel Wall from Pacific Ocean to Sierra Madre Mountains

• 1996– Laws targeting illegals are passed.

IRCA Results

• 91% of pre-1986 illegal residents, mostly Mexicans were legalized (60% in California) 3 million people.

• Made it illegal to hire an illegal alien, introduced I-9 forms.

1996 Welfare Reform also targets immigrants

• Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PROWRA)– Bars recent legal immigrants (LPRs) from accessing

means tested benefits (food stamps, Medicaid) The undocumented had been banned since the 1970s

• Consequences– Naturalization surges– Some states step in and provide coverage, others

don’t.– Strong line between citizens and legal noncitizens.

Costs of ContradictionDouglas Massey

• Transforms Mexican Immigration from a Regional to a National Phenomenon

• Raises Death Rate Among Border Crossers• Lowers the Probability of Border Apprehension• Reduces Rate of Return Migration• Increases the Rate of Settlement• Increase Net Rate of Undocumented Migration• Shifts Composition from Workers to Families• Puts Downward Pressure on US Wages and

Undermines Working Conditions for US Workers

Changes in Border Enforcement• Average Length of Stay

– 1.7 years in 1986– 3.5 years in 2005

• Rise in deaths– 472 people died in 2005, 827 in 2007

• Nontraditional border sites 29% in 1988, 64% in 2002• Apprehension fell from 33% in 1980s to 5% in 2002.• Cost of one arrest went from $300.00 in 1992 to

$1700 in 2002.

Indicators of Border Enforcement 1980-2002

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002Year

Val

ue

Rel

ativ

e to

198

6

Border Patrol Officers Linewatch Hours Border Patrol Budget

IRCA Enacted

Operation GatekeeperLaunched in San Diego

Proportion Going to New Crossing Points and Destinations

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f M

igra

nts

New Destination New Crossing

IRCA Enacted

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

En

trie

s

Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso

Probability of Apprehension 1980-2001

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Pro

bab

ility

IRCA Enacted


Average Cost of Hiring a Coyote

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Do

llars

IRCA Enacted


Circular Migration Becomes More Permanent

• Return Migration Becomes Too Difficult as the Border Tightens

• First Trips do not change• In 2003 the median number of years in the US

for an undocumented person was less than 8 years.

• In 2013 the median number of years was 13.

Probability of First Undocumented Migration and Return 1980-2001

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

An

nu

al P

rob

abili

ty

Males Females Return

IRCA Enacted


Number of Mexicans in the United States 1980-2002

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Nu

mb

er in

Th

ou

san

ds

IRCA Enacted


Border Patrol

The budget has increased 714% from 1992 to 2009

Border agents have increased 390%

Apprehensions and Deportations

• In 2005 1,291,142 apprehensions• Deportations 1,174,059• Forced Deportations 208,521• Voluntary Departures 965,538• In FY 2008 378,582 people from 221 countries

were held in detention.• ICE has 33,400 detention beds, and alternative

to detention programs for overflow

Unlawful entry

• Crossing the border without inspection is a civil violation.

• Increasingly though unlawful immigration has been prosecuted as a federal crime.

• “unlawful re-entry” is a federal crime.

• Federal prisons are increasingly being filled with people on immigration offenses.

• 92% of offenders are Hispanic

Who faces deportation?

• Anyone who is not a citizen– (undocumented people, asylum seekers, non-

immigrants, and even Green card holders (LPRs) with long legal residence and families)

How Big is the Deportation System?

• Since 1980 the number of times an individual non-citizen has been caught somewhere on U.S. soil, and determined to be subject to deportation has exceeded 35 million.

Dramatic recent increase in post entry social control deportations

• From 2001-2010 over 1,021,000 people were deported from the U.S. because of post-entry criminal conduct, some serious, the majority drugs, immigration and traffic violations.

How does the system work?

• Mandatory detention• No right to counsel• Retroactivity• No jury trial• Newly restricted administrative and judicial

review (1996 and 2005 laws)• No post removal motions to re-open

– If you were deported by mistake you cannot appeal after the deportation

State and Local Police Involvement

• Secure Communities– Whenever a police officer stops someone and

checks their identity and checks for outstanding warrants, the search also goes to the FBI and checks on migration status

• Integration of Local law enforcement with federal immigration records means that undocumented people can fall into ICE’s control without the need for “raids”

Detention

• DHS now operates the largest detention and supervised release program in the US

• DHS detains over 350,000 people for at least 24 hours, in over 400 facilities, at a cost of 1.2 billion.

• They have 30,000 beds in DHS facilities and purchase beds in state and local jails.

• Half of detainees have no criminal records at all.

Solutions?• DACA

– Deferred Access for Childhood Arrivals (575,000)• Individuals who meet the following criteria can apply for

deferred action for childhood arrivals:• are under 31 years of age as of June 15, 2012;• came to the U.S. while under the age of 16;• have continuously resided in the U.S. from June 15, 2007 to

the present. (For purposes of calculating this five year period, brief and innocent absences from the United States for humanitarian reasons will not be included);

Solutions• DACA continued

– entered the U.S. without inspection or fell out of lawful visa status before June 15, 2012;

– were physically present in the United States on June 15, 2012, and at the time of making the request for consideration of deferred action with USCIS;

– are currently in school, have graduated from high school, have obtained a GED, or have been honorably discharged from the Coast Guard or armed forces;

– have not been convicted of a felony offense, a significant misdemeanor, or more than three misdemeanors of any kind; and

– do not pose a threat to national security or public safety.

• TPS• Temporary Protected Status (400,000 adults, 5,000 children)

Where Do the Immigrants Live?

Settlement Patterns

• Until 1990’s immigrants were very concentrated in 5 states—New York, California, Texas, Florida, Illinois. They went to gateway cities.– 1871-1993 78% went to these states

After 1990s• Geographic Dispersal of Immigrants

– Migration from Core Areas in Early 1990s– New Settlement Areas Attract Additional

Immigrants

• Unauthorized Growth Explosive in Some Areas– Led by Mexicans in New Settlement Areas

• Shares and Numbers– Visible Populations but Small Shares and Numbers– Concentration within States

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013).

Immigrants Are Concentrated

New York -- 11%4.5 million

41.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2012

Texas -- 11%4.5 million

Florida -- 9%3.8 million

Illinois -- 4%1.8 million

All Others36%

14.9 million

California -- 25%10.4 million

New Jersey -- 5%2.0 million

Core States – 73% in ’90, 64% in ’12

Immigrant PopulationGrowth, 1990-2011 (US=104%)

Major Destinations (65% in 2011) (6)

All Other States (22-126%) (18)Other “New Growth” (154-251%) (17)Top 10 Growth State (271-515%) (10)

Source: Based on IPUMS for 1990,2011.

Ten Fastest Growing Immigrant Pops





New Immigration Growth Centers





Undocumented Immigrants IRCA legalized 2.7 million people Illegal immigrants current estimate 11.8...

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