Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data...

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Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield

Transcript of Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data...

Page 1: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Understanding Your Local Economy

Alan Barefield

Page 2: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Outline

– Anatomy of a local economy– Data

• Demographics• Economics• Fiscal

– Issues• Commuting• Health

Page 3: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Local Economy

So what?

Page 4: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

The Local Economy

• Why?– We live here.– We work here.– Leaders are expected to make informed

decisions.• Citizens, commuters, businesses, tourists• Potential entrepreneurs• Fiscal Governance

Page 5: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.
Page 6: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

• Resources

• Consumers

• Producers

Page 7: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Local Economy• Resources:

– Air, water, land, minerals– People: labor force, children, students, retirees, tourists– Factors of production

• Producers:– Raw, processed, finished

• Consumers:– Intermediate– Final goods and services

Page 8: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.
Page 9: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Factors of Production

LAND

LABOR

CAPITAL

MANAGEMENT

Page 10: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Returns to Production

Land «« rent

Labor «« wages

Capital «« interest

Management «« profits

Page 11: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.
Page 12: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.
Page 13: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

What Flows In?

Dollars from non-local purchases of locally produced goods and services.

• Manufactured goods and services• Agricultural commodities• Transfer payments• Tourism dollars

Page 14: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

What Leaks Out?

Non-local spending

• Consumer goods and services• Non-locally purchased business inputs

– Recall the four factors of production

Page 15: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.
Page 16: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.
Page 17: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Measuring the Economy

• Composition– BLS: 12 industry super

sectors

• Indicators– Demographic

• Population, income

– Economic• Industry sales, jobs

– Fiscal• Revenues and

expenditures

Page 18: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

BLS Industry Super Sectors

• Construction• Education and Health• Financial Activities• Government• Information• Leisure and Hospitality• Trade

• Manufacturing• Natural Resources

and Mining• Professional and

Business Services• Transportation and

Utilities• Other Services

Page 19: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.
Page 20: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Economic Indicators

Page 21: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Demographics

• Population– School-aged

• infrastructure

– Elderly• transfer payments: social security, Medicare, Medicaid

• Households– Owner-occupied– Important goal for low income communities

• Wealth accumulation

• Income:

Page 22: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Income

• Total Personal Income• Earnings

– Less contributions to social insurance

• Dividends, interest, and rent– Investment income– Capital income– Property income

• Transfer payments

Page 23: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Economics

• Industry Sales (output)

• Employment

• Labor IncomeWages and salaries + proprietors incomes

• Total Value Added (GDP)

Page 24: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Economics

• Industry Sales– Total Industrial Output

• All transactions

Farmer sells cow to butcher $0.50

Butcher sells meat to McDonalds $0.75

McDonalds sells hamburger $1.75

Total Sales………………………………… $3.00

Page 25: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Economics

• Total Value Added– Value of firms output less cost of intermediate

goods that the firm purchases.

Farmer$0.50

Butcher ($0.75-0.50)$0.25

McDonalds ($1.75-$0.75) $1.00

Total Value Added………………………. $1.75

Page 26: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Economics

• Employment: People & Jobs– Civilian Labor Force (CLF)

• Employed Persons• Unemployed Persons• Unemployment Rate = unemployed / CLF

– Place of Work Employment• Jobs

Page 27: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Oktibbeha County

• 1995-2004– Comparisons with region and state.– Population– Employment– Income– Sales– Commuting

Page 28: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Population

40,623

43,769

39,00039,50040,00040,50041,00041,50042,00042,50043,00043,50044,00044,500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Page 29: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Population Growth

 1995-2004 2004-2010O ktibbeha 7.74% 2.21%Lowndes -0.01% 7.25%M ississippi 7.15% 4.81%

Page 30: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Population Growth

1.13%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Lowndes Oktibbeha MS

Page 31: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Civilian Labor Force

Employed+

Unemployed

UNEMPLOYMENT RATEUnemployed / (Employed + Unemployed)

orUnemployed / Civilian Labor Force

Page 32: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Unemployment Rate

3.48

7.09

5.65

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Oktibbeha Lowndes MS

Page 33: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Civilian Labor Force

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Oktibbeha Lowndes

Page 34: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Where Do We Work?

-2,0004,000

6,0008,000

10,00012,000

14,00016,00018,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

AGRI MINE CONST MFG TRADE SVC TCPU FIRE

Page 35: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Jobs in the Top Three Sectors

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

MFG SVC TRADE

Page 36: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Job Growth by Sector1995-2004

80.4%

32.9%

48.0%

65.1%

-2.1%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

AGRI MINE CONST MFG TRADE SVC TCPU FIRE

Page 37: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Earning Trends by Sector ($M 2000)

$-$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

MINE CONST MFG TRADE SVC TCPU FIRE

Page 38: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Earnings Growth1995-2004

105.5%

14.4%

37.0%

53.8%

71.5%

9.1%

278.3%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

180.0%

MINE CONST MFG TRADE SVC TCPU FIRE

Page 39: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Income Components

Earnings64%

Dividens, Interest & Rent

19%

Transfer Payments

17%

Page 40: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Total Personal Income

$-

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

DIR TP EARN

Page 41: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Revenues and Expenditures

• Revenues– Taxes, charges, fees, transfers, bonds

• Expenditures– Health, hospitals, education, public

welfare, highways, public safety: police and fire protection

Page 42: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Tax Revenues

Ad Valorem

“according to the value”

Property Taxes

Retail Sales

State Tax Levies

State Transfers

Page 43: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Property Taxes

• Assessed Value• Taxable Value

– 10% Residential Property– 15% Commercial Property– 30% Motor Vehicles, et al.

• Tax Rate: Millage

Page 44: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Millage Rate

• Millage Rate is the tax rate per $1000 of value.

• One Mill = 1/10th of One Cent(0.001)

Page 45: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Example – Class 1 Property

• Assessed Value: $120,000

• Taxable Value: $12,000 (120000/10)

• Millage Rate: 111.09

• Tax Levy: 12 * 111.09 = $1,333.08

Page 46: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Retail Taxes

• Mississippi collects 7% sales tax on many retail products.

• Eligible municipalities receive part of sales taxes collected in their jurisdiction

• 18.75%• City (ie., incorporated municipalities)

Page 47: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Retail Sales in 2000

• Oktibbeha County: $408 million

• $302 million in eligible municipalities:

• City Diversions:– Maben: $86,899– Starkville: $3,687,185– Sturgis: $40,838

Page 48: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Commuting

• Oktibbeha County– 18,401 total– 15,071 own-

commute– 3,330 out-commute

Page 49: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Out-commuters3,330

MS: 3,134AL: 73TN: 17LA: 26

Other: 80

Page 50: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

In-Commuters

IN O UT NETM ississippi 3,557 3,134 423 Alabam a 92 73 19 Tennessee 26 17 9 Louisiana 16 26 (10) O ther 42 80 (38) Total* 3,733 3,330 403

Page 51: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Other Issues

1. Local infrastructure– Capacity

2. Health Care– Impact of poor health – a case study

Page 52: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

1. Capacity Issues

Capacity5.76 Mgal/day

Average3.6 MGal/day

Peak4.4 Mgal/day

Page 53: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

• Daily per-capita usage: 84 gallons (avg)

• Population growth: 2%– Exceed system cap by 2027– Exceed system peak by 2017

Page 54: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

2. Health Issues

• Mississippi ranks highest for– Obesity– Heart Disease– Diabetes– Infant Mortality

• Employers – Educated workforce– Access to healthcare

Page 55: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Health = Wealth = Health = Wealth …

• “During the past 30 days, how many days did poor physical or mental health keep you from doing your usual activities?”

20.4% of all respondents8.1% of workers

Page 56: Understanding Your Local Economy Alan Barefield. Outline –Anatomy of a local economy –Data Demographics Economics Fiscal –Issues Commuting Health.

Health $$$

$32.9 Million

Of LOST INCOME

$144 Million in present value losses accumulate over 30 years