Understanding Oklahoma Voters...Fallin Favorable Over Time Mary Fallin Favorable 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%...

Understanding Oklahoma Voters

A Compilation of Studies Conducted Summer 2016

by

How Many Donate?

.05%.25%

1%

98.7%

Gave $2600+

Gave $200 - $2,600

Gave Anything

No Donation

Very few people engage in elections beyond voting. Only 1 in 100 give any amount. Only 25 out of a 10,000 give $200 or more and only 5 out of 10,000 gave $2,600 or more to a candidate.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

61%

42%

55% 50%

68%

45%

67%

47%

63%

42%

Turnout %

General Election Voter Turnout

We do not see a trend toward apathy among those who are registered – though their participation in gubernatorial reelects has decreased dramatically. What has changed – according to census data, in 2000, 72% of adult Oklahomans were registered to vote; by 2010 it had dropped to 60%.

6.51%5.13%

21.32%

20.21%

41.03%

Republican Runoff VotersVoted Primary / Not RunoffRegistered Republican Not VotingRegistered Other PartiesNot Registered

Composition of Senate District 22

Senate District 22

Voter Turnout Percentage in Recent Elections

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2016 GOP Primary

2016 Pres. Primary

2014 General 2014 Rep. Primary

2012 General Election

2012 Pres. Primary

42%34%

39%42%

27%

40%

26%

42% 42%

30%

63%

33%

% of Voters Age 65+ Turnout Percentage

Turnout percentages are of “registered” voters, not those eligible to be voters.

24%

32%

37%

40%43%44%

46% 47%47%51% 50%

54%

48%

43% 40%

36%39%39% 39%

42%38%

34%33% 31%

28%

22%20%

22%

14%12% 11%

9%

11%

9%14%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-78 Jan-82 Jan-86 Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-14

Republican Democrat Independent

Voting Habits – Over Time

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

AllStronglySomewhat

Conservatives Since 1978

Media Habits

* Percentages may not add to 100% due to refusals and / or rounding.

33%

13%10%

11%

32% Multiple DailyDailyWeeklyRarelyNever

Social Media Usage

11

56%14%

5%

19%3%

Local TVNewspaperLocal RadioSocial MediaFriends & Family

Source of Local News

Donald Trump Favorable?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

All Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts

48%

57%

38%

66%

29%

48%43%

56%

43%34%

51%

23%

63%

44% 46%

32%

Favorable Unfavorable

12

Trump has rebounded a bit in Oklahoma and is now a net positive.

28% Strongly Favorable; 20% Somewhat Favorable;9% Somewhat Unfavorable; 34% Strongly Unfavorable;

9% Heard of, No Opinion

Hillary Clinton Favorable?

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%


27%20%

34%

5%

51%

25%32%

22%

67%74%

60%

92%

40%

70%60%

74%


13

Clinton is as negative in the state as is Obama. She unites Republicans.

14% Strongly Favorable; 13% Somewhat Favorable;9% Somewhat Unfavorable; 58% Strongly Unfavorable;

6% Heard of, No Opinion

Presidential Ballot

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

All January Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts

52% 50%

63%

42%

74%

29%

49% 48%

69%

27% 31%22%

32%

5%

51%

26%33%

18%

Trump Clinton

52% Trump; 27% Clinton; 8% Gary Johnson; 13% UndecidedTrump largely unifies Republicans in the Sooner State and garners support from almost 3-in-10 Democrats. He does exceptionally well in the minor media markets.

Note, Trump only has a 48% favorable rating, but is getting 52% of the vote.

14

Presidential Ballot Test

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

All Favorable Both Unfavorable Both

Somewhat Unfavorable

Trump

Somewhat Unfavorable

Clinton

48%

61%

27%

41% 40%

28% 28%

7%

23%

8%

Trump Clinton

15

Fully 22% of voters have an unfavorable impression of both major candidates – Trump leads this group by a 4-to-1 margin, but most remain undecided. This group gives a 30-point advantage to a generic Republican and will likely break Trump’s way or stay home.

Note Trump wins among those who say they have a somewhat unfavorable opinion of him.

16

39%

30%

56%58%

62%

56%57%53%

46%

35%32%

43%

48%

43%

48%

60%

65%

48%48%48%

43%42%46%

49%47%

54%51%51%

48%46%

49%47%

42%42%

28%

23%

32%

55%

31%

24%20%

27%26%30%

35%

47%

57%

39%

28%

36%38%

24%

18%

33%35%

30%40%39%

33%34%38%

31%34%

32%

38%43%

36%39%40%

43%

59%

66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jul-9

3Se

p-94

Oct

-95

Jul-9

7O

ct-9

8N

ov-9

9Se

p-00

Jul-0

1M

ay-0

2D

ec-0

2A

ug-0

3A

pr-0

4Fe

b-05

Aug

-05

Nov

-05

Aug

-06

Jan-

07A

pr-0

8A

pr-0

9O

ct-0

9A

pr-1

1A

ug-1

1D

ec-1

3A

pr-1

2A

ug-1

2Ja

n-13

Apr

-13

Sep-

13N

ov. -

13A

pr.-1

4N

ov.-1

4Ju

l-15

Aug

.-15

Oct

.-15

Feb.

-…M

ay-1

6

Right Track

Wrong Track

This study represents the highest wrong track number we have ever recorded –shattering any negativity we have seen in the last 25 years.

16

Direction of Oklahoma Over Time

Oklahoma Right Track?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA

Tulsa DMA

Minor DMA

23% 26% 21%31%

17%

31%

13%

22%

66% 62%70%

57%

76%

61%

75%

64%

Right Track Wrong Track

23% Right Track; 66% Wrong Track; 11% Undecided

17

These are the worst numbers we have seen. Democrats have been solidly negative for quite some time – much of the recent negative movement is among Republicans and those in Tulsa.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

July 09

Jan. 10

April 11

Aug. 11

Dec. 11

April 12

Aug. 12

Oct. 12

Jan. 13

April 13

Sept. 13

Nov. 13

Apr. 14

Jul. 14

Jul-15

Aug-15

Nov. 15

Feb. 16

May. 16

Jul-16

52%56% 61%

64%61% 64%65% 66% 63% 62%58%55%

52%50%53%54%52%

40%44%41%

13%20%17%

23%21%21% 22% 19%22%

28%31%32%40%42%

39%39% 39%

44%48%48%


18

Fallin Favorable Over Time

Mary Fallin Favorable

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


41%47%

35%

63%

21%

40%40% 45%

48%42%

54%

28%

69%

48% 50%45%


19% Strongly Favorable; 22% Somewhat Favorable; 14% Somewhat Unfavorable; 34% Strongly Unfavorable;

10% Heard of, No opinion; 1% Never Heard of

Fallin’s numbers are no longer positive. She now has a significant partisan edge.

19

Mary Fallin Favorable?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

All Under 45 45 to 64 Over 65 Under $50k

$50k-$100k

Over $100k

41%

29%

38%

57%

42% 40% 42%48%

59%

50%

33%

43%51% 51%


20

Fallin continues to have real strength among senior citizens.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

36% 37%37%

43%33%

32%

31%

45%43%

48% 48% 51%47%

32% 34%

38%

39%

33%

33%

30% 25%23%

27%

33%

29%34%

Republican Democrat

Generic Legislative Ballot Test Over Time

The poor outlook on the direction of the state is taking a bit of a toll on Republican legislative candidates –but they still have a 13-point advantage. As the presidential campaign continues, expect this number to widen (When this was asked, Trump had only a 20-point lead over Clinton.) This Republican lead is down from 16 points in January.

State Legislator Generic Ballot?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Tulsa DMA

Minor DMA

47%54%

40%

79%

18%

47% 45% 49%

34% 32%37%

6%

63%

35% 36%28%

Republican Democrat

47% Republican; 34% Democrat; 19% Undecided

22

Despite the wrong track numbers and dissatisfaction we see among Republicans, they are still more united than are Democrats.

We do see a substantial gender difference.

Issue Cluster – State Legislature?

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

All Men Women Republican Democrat

26% 32% 21% 28% 25%

12%13%

12%15%

8%

7%7%

6%3%

10%

33% 24% 41% 23%41%

15% 19% 12% 25%7%

Economic Moral Public Safety Societal Liberty

26% Economic Issues; 12% Moral Issues; 7% Public Safety Issues; 33% Societal Issues; 15% Liberty Issues; 7% Undecided

23

Health and Education issues are followed by economic concerns as the areas currently garnering the most interest. We have seen a slight decrease in liberty and moral issue voters in recent years. Substantial gender and partisan differences exist.

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

All Men Women Republican Democrat Voted Rep. Primary

Voted Dem. Primary

39% 39% 39% 42%36%

44%

36%

10%9% 10%

3%

14%

3%

17%

45% 45% 45%50%

41%

48%

39%

Too High Too Low About Right

Oklahoma Sales Tax Rate?

24

We are starting to see these numbers increase a bit – but they are still very low in an historical perspective. Generally, when the “too high” is below 40% we see almost any effort for increase is successful. We see tax issues that hit a perceived need of the voters succeed when the too high starts as high as 50%.

39% Too High; 10% Too Low; 45% About Right; 6% Undecided

Tax Raise for Teacher Raises? (Not Boren Proposal)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

All Men Women RepublicansDemocrats Minor Mkts. OKC Tulsa

62% 60% 63%58%

66% 65% 64%58%

31% 34%28%

34%28%

25%31%

34%

Favor Oppose

42% Strongly Favor; 20% Somewhat Favor; 9% Somewhat Oppose; 22% Strongly Oppose; 7%Undecided

Consistent with other studies, by a two-to-one margin, Oklahoma voters support raising taxes in order to generate teacher pay raises. Notice, there is a 24-point advantage for Republicans.

25

Boren Proposal– Initial Ask

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

All Men Women RepublicansDemocrats Minor Mkts. OKC Tulsa

60% 56%64%

54%

65% 66%60% 58%

34%40%

29%39%

30% 32% 35% 35%

Favor Oppose

43% Definitely Yes; 17% Probably Yes; 8% Probably No; 26% Definitely No; 6% Undecided

This issue starts with a sizeable lead. Democrats and women lead the charge – but even among registered Republicans we see a 15-point advantage.

26

Boren Proposal– by AgeThe strongest line comes from age. The issue becomes very competitive among those over the age of 55.

27

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

80%82%

72%

58% 52% 51%53%

0% 14%22%

34% 43% 46% 43%

Favor Oppose

Best Option for Teacher Pay Raise?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


Tulsa DMA

Minor DMA

12% 12% 11% 10% 13% 11% 10% 17%

23% 22% 23% 19%26%

22% 23%25%

45% 47% 42% 50%40% 49% 44% 32%

Sales Tax Increase Broaden Sales Tax Base Cut Tax Credits

12% Sales Tax Increase; 23% Broaden Sales Tax Base; 45% Cut Tax Credits; 21% Undecided

28

Despite the support we see for the Boren sales tax proposal, voters really prefer other options for raising teacher pay – in fact, only 12% support this option. They would much rather see tax credits cut or even the sales tax base broadened.

Republicans are the most in favor of getting rid of tax credits for this purpose.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

All Men Women Republicans Democrats Urban Rural

70% 68% 72%79%

60%70% 70%

27% 29% 25%20%

34%26% 27%

Favor Oppose

47% Strongly Favor; 23% Somewhat Favor; 11% Somewhat Oppose; 16% Strongly Oppose; 4% Undecided

The concept of school choice is overwhelmingly popular. Among registered Republicans, it is a 4-to-1 winner and approaches 2-to-1 among Democrats.

Favor School Choice?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

All Men Women Republicans Democrats GOP Primary Voters

Dem Primary Voters

55% 55% 54%58%

49%

57%

44%

37% 38% 37%32%

45%

34%

49%

Favor Oppose

29% Strongly Favor; 25% Somewhat Favor; 11% Somewhat Oppose; 26% Strongly Oppose; 8% Undecided

The initial ask on ESAs shows solid majority support and an 18-point advantage.

ESAs start more partisan than the other reforms tested. Democrat primary voters actually lean against ESA’s and differ from Democrats without a history of voting in primaries by a significant margin. (non-primary voting Democrats 56% support – very close to Republicans).

Favor ESAs? Initial Ask

Education Savings Accounts—often called ESAs--is a proposal which would allow parents to take a portion of the yearly state funding which is currently used to educate their child in a traditional public school and create a personalized account to fund their child’s education expenses. These expenses could be customized to include private or parochial school tuition, online education programs, tutoring, and books, and other future college expenses. These Education Savings Accounts would be administered and overseen by the state and would contain taxpayer protections against fraudulent activity or misuse of funds.

Favor Cigarette Tax Increase?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Tulsa DMA

Minor DMA

68%62%

73%

62%

73%67% 68% 69%

29%

36%

23%

34%25% 30% 29% 26%

Favor Oppose

55% Strongly Favor; 13% Somewhat Favor; 7% Somewhat Oppose; 22% Strongly Oppose;

3% Undecided

31

We see very strong support for $1.50 per pack cigarette tax increase. Among Republicans, the advantage is 28 points – and 48 among Democrats.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

All Voted Rep. Primary

Und. State Leg.

Generic Ballot Test

Und. Presidential Ballot Test

Trump and Clinton Unfav.

Rep. Fallin Unfav.

Somewhat Cons.

68%63% 69%

73% 68%63%

72%

29%34%

26% 23% 28%

36%

27%

Favor Oppose

Favor Cigarette Tax Increase?

32

Swing voters –like somewhat conservative and those undecided on the presidential election are among the most supportive.

How Vote on Alcohol SQ?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

January Today Men Women Repub. Democrats OKC Media

Tulsa Media

64%60%

65%

56%59% 60% 58% 65%

31% 36% 32%40% 37%

36%38%

31%

Yes No

Today, this contest is a little closer than we saw in January.

33

49% Definitely Yes; 11% Probably Yes; 5% Probably No; 31% Definitely No;

4% Undecided

The negative change occurs primarily in the rural southeast, rural northwest and a little bit in central Oklahoma. We saw no change in Tulsa and slight improvement in the rural northeast.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

All Northwest Northeast Cent. OK Southwest Tulsa Southeast

60%54% 59% 60% 61%

72%

49%

36% 39% 35% 37% 37%

25%

49%

Yes No

34

How Vote on Alcohol SQ?

Understanding Oklahoma Voters...Fallin Favorable Over Time Mary Fallin Favorable 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%...

Documents

Transcript of Understanding Oklahoma Voters...Fallin Favorable Over Time Mary Fallin Favorable 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%...