Understanding & Meeting Needs of the Renewable Energy Industry Priorities, Expectations and Roles...

Understanding & Meeting Needsof the Renewable Energy Industry

Priorities, Expectations and Roles

2009 AMS Summer Community Meeting

August 12, 2009Norman, Oklahoma

Mark Ahlstrom, [email protected]

2Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved

WindLogics Background

Founded in 1989 by supercomputer architects

Applied meteorology focus

Assessment, forecasting, operations and integration of renewable energy

Intelligent solutions for the world’s energy industry


NextEra Energy Resources (formerly FPL Energy) WindLogics became a subsidiary of FPL Energy

in September 2006

NextEra is the largest renewable energy providerin North American Wind - 65 wind plants (over 6,400 MW) Solar - seven solar facilities (310 MW) Nuclear, hydro and gas plants More than 17,000 MW of generation

Subsidiary of FPL Group (NYSE: FPL) 2008 revenues more than $16 billion


Electric Utility Perceptions of Wind & Solar Energy Reliability is job #1

Wind and solar may be sources of free fuel, but how useful is an intermittent source of power?

In the context of traditional operating practices, both the variability of the power delivery and the uncertainty of the schedule are perceived to add risk and costs to the system

If we must live with variability, can’t you at least provide an accurate schedule (forecast) of the power delivery?


Complexity of Wind Power Output Power proportional to cube of wind speed

Complex interactions with localized flows and between wind turbines themselves

Wind variability in all time scales

Shear

Diurnals

Long-term inter-annual variability

Even with a perfect weather/wind forecast, the power forecast will have errors that are perceived to be higher than what the power industry is used to seeing


The Unfortunate Reality

For a large portion of the U.S. power grid, the system operator is getting their wind forecast

from a German company


The Unfortunate Reality

For a large portion of the U.S. power grid, the system operator is getting their wind forecast

from a German companyusing ECMWF


Needs from Government & Academia Enhanced weather data networks

Improved boundary layer understanding Complex flow regimes (low-level jets, stable layer flows, etc.) Models tuned to lowest 200 meters - with complex terrain & forest Highly instrumented test & validation sites

Improvements to NWP models

Collaborative research plans and roadmaps that optimize assets between and among the public and private sector


Roles of Public and Private Sector

The general policies from other market sectors seem quite appropriate (for example, the NWS support to DOTs):

NWS has a commitment to public safety Protecting life and property Understanding evolution and timing of hazardous weather events Commitment to work with the private sector

Beyond the scope Site-specific forecasts not related to public safety, life or property Specialized weather support or customized consulting services Customized products which are not directly weather related


Research Projects Research benefits from real-world input and real scenarios, so

joint projects between government and academic research centers, the private sector and private companies are good

Research projects affiliated with government labs… Open for public review - regular “technical review committee” meetings Designed to advance research topics Avoid any perception of delivering a customized, commercial solution

to a private company Be very mindful of overpromising results

An example with negative perceptions NCAR RAL / Xcel Energy project


The Risk and Danger Unrealistic expectations, while well meaning and sincere, can

harm the industry

By emphasizing weather forecasting and failing have deep understanding of the business realities, disappointing business results could strengthen the perception that renewables are “intermittent” and unreliable

An extremely high level of involvement, integration and support will be needed to solve this problem in the utility control room


Role of Private Sector

We strongly believe in the role of the private sectorin adding domain-specific value.

Perception of results Technology transfer Commercialization Support


Perception is Reality A fragile time in the renewables space

Perceptions are critical – in both utility industry and public

For the electric utility industry, this business transition is extremely complex

Perceived “failures” to achieve expectations may be better handled in the private sector

Don’t become the excuse… We need renewables!


Mark Ahlstrom, CEO651.556.4262

[email protected]

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Understanding & Meeting Needs of the Renewable Energy Industry Priorities, Expectations and Roles...

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