Understanding Understanding

Habitat Use & SelectionHabitat Use & Selection & Applications in Management & Applications in Management

PlanningPlanning(or how do we get from this [GPS collar] (or how do we get from this [GPS collar]

to this [PTP doc]to this [PTP doc]

Pamela HengeveldPamela HengeveldS8M Sheep Project Steering Committee MeetingS8M Sheep Project Steering Committee Meeting

Fort St John BC, October 17 2008Fort St John BC, October 17 2008

Vision StatementVision Statement““To achieve and maintain a sustainable To achieve and maintain a sustainable sheep population distributed across their sheep population distributed across their historic range in the northeast while historic range in the northeast while providing management direction for human providing management direction for human activity to occur in a manner that is activity to occur in a manner that is compatible with sheep conservation and with compatible with sheep conservation and with the wilderness values of the region” the wilderness values of the region”

Components in Original Work PlanComponents in Original Work PlanBaseline Research & InventoryBaseline Research & Inventory

Population DemographicsPopulation Demographics Habitat Use & SelectionHabitat Use & Selection Ewe Survival & Mortality FactorsEwe Survival & Mortality Factors Herd HealthHerd Health Traditional Knowledge / Community KnowledgeTraditional Knowledge / Community Knowledge

Risk Assessment & Adaptive Management (AM)Risk Assessment & Adaptive Management (AM) Modeling Modeling (using what we know to make predictions about potential (using what we know to make predictions about potential

impacts)impacts) Experimentation Experimentation (AM trials to test predictions and refine methods)(AM trials to test predictions and refine methods)

Policy DevelopmentPolicy Development Management GuidelinesManagement Guidelines Monitoring ProtocolsMonitoring Protocols

S8M Stone’s Sheep ProjectS8M Stone’s Sheep Project

Funding 2008/2009

SCEK (Yr 2 of 3)

HCTF (Yr 1 of 3)

Trans Canada (Yr 4 of 5)

MEMPR (Yr 4)

Identifying links between research outputs and management plansIdentifying links between research outputs and management plans

PTP Amendment Deadline

December 2010

Sound understanding of Stone’s sheep ecology and Sound understanding of Stone’s sheep ecology and status in the S8M area, based on scientific research, status in the S8M area, based on scientific research, TK, CKTK, CK

Provide information that is useful as a decision-making Provide information that is useful as a decision-making tooltool

Relevant to current management concerns and plansRelevant to current management concerns and plans

Links between Links between

research outputs and management plans?research outputs and management plans?

S8M Stone’s Sheep Project S8M Stone’s Sheep Project OutcomesOutcomes

SCOPERESPONSIBILITIES

OPPORTUNITIES

ensure that we all have the same expectations and end product in mind

Habitat Habitat “Conditions and resources present in an area that “Conditions and resources present in an area that

produce occupancy (including survival and produce occupancy (including survival and reproduction) by an organism”reproduction) by an organism” Hall et al. 1997Hall et al. 1997

Life RequisitesLife Requisites

DisplacementDisplacement MortalityMortality

CompetitionCompetition

Escape terrainEscape terrain

Movement corridors Movement corridors

(trails to licks and (trails to licks and seasonal ranges)seasonal ranges)

Mineral LicksMineral Licks

ForageForage

(type, quality)(type, quality)

Describes where animals areDescribes where animals are Home range sizeHome range size Seasonal rangesSeasonal ranges Movement corridorsMovement corridors Special features (e.g., mineral licks)Special features (e.g., mineral licks)

Habitat UseHabitat Use

Habitat SelectionHabitat SelectionInsight to why animals are where they are – what are sheep Insight to why animals are where they are – what are sheep keying in on that’s affecting their distribution?keying in on that’s affecting their distribution?

Statistically rigorous method for quantifying habitats Statistically rigorous method for quantifying habitats that are selected and those that are avoidedthat are selected and those that are avoided

Measuring preference based on use vs availabilityMeasuring preference based on use vs availability Defensible decision-making tool because it is non-Defensible decision-making tool because it is non-

subjective, transparent, reproduciblesubjective, transparent, reproducible

Habitat Selection MethodsHabitat Selection MethodsModels:Models: Simplified descriptions Simplified descriptions of how we think a system worksof how we think a system works

Life RequisitesLife Requisites

DisplacementDisplacement MortalityMortality

CompetitionCompetition

Vegetation type + Aspect + Slope + Elevation + Ruggedness + Predation Risk

Describe how we think the system works -> habitat Describe how we think the system works -> habitat models of influential factors affecting sheep models of influential factors affecting sheep distribution, then use data to test the modelsdistribution, then use data to test the models

Multiple types of statistical analyses possible Resource Selection Functions (used in Besa-

Prophet)

Habitat Selection MethodsHabitat Selection Methods

#Vegetation type + # Aspect + # Slope + # Elevation + # Ruggedness + # Predation Risk

PTP Key FeaturesPTP Key FeaturesHierarchical planning: Strategic to site-level planningHierarchical planning: Strategic to site-level planning

Results-Oriented Framework Results-Oriented Framework No prescribed “rules” for implementation, just specified outcomesNo prescribed “rules” for implementation, just specified outcomes

Continual Improvement through Adaptive Management (AM)Continual Improvement through Adaptive Management (AM)AM = systematic approach to learning from outcomes of management AM = systematic approach to learning from outcomes of management actions designed to generate reliable feedback and clarify reasons actions designed to generate reliable feedback and clarify reasons underlying the outcomes underlying the outcomes

Result:Result: Flexible, innovative, systematic learningFlexible, innovative, systematic learningFollows national (CSA) standards, relevant to certification processes Follows national (CSA) standards, relevant to certification processes (e.g., Sustainable Forest Mgmt Plan as model for socially and (e.g., Sustainable Forest Mgmt Plan as model for socially and environmentally-oriented management plans)environmentally-oriented management plans)

PTP Management & PTP Management & MonitoringMonitoring

Results-based Mgmt Framework

Criterion

Element

Objective

Indicator

Target

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

PTP Outputs

O&G Industry Proponent

Dvlpmt Plans, Records, Reports

Monitoring

Baseline

Implementation (Tracking Compliance)

Effectiveness

Validation

Best Mgmt PracticesAccess Mgmt

Roles & Responsibilities

Adaptive Management

CIMF

PTP Management & PTP Management & MonitoringMonitoring

Results-based Mgmt Framework

Criterion

Element

Objective

Indicator

Target

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

Conservation of Biological Diversity

The structure, function and distribution of Stone’s sheep winter habitat, population and behaviours remain in a natural range

Proportion and amount of disturbance (% and ha) by winter habitat classes

<2% of moderately high to high capability winter habitat is disturbed

Conservation of Species Diversity

What is the likelihood of effectiveness in meeting stated objective?Opportunities for improvement: ambiguity in the language/definitions, no clear measurable link between indicator and objective, winter range only, physical ground disturbance only.

What is Disturbance?What is Disturbance?Appropriate Measures?Appropriate Measures?

Physical (ground) disturbancePhysical (ground) disturbanceZone of influence (“buffers”)Zone of influence (“buffers”)Permanent vs long-term vs temporary disturbance (“natural Permanent vs long-term vs temporary disturbance (“natural state”)state”)Cumulative effectsCumulative effectsUncertainties (e.g., climate change)Uncertainties (e.g., climate change)

May need different types of targets for different types of May need different types of targets for different types of disturbancedisturbance

Models Models Simplified descriptions of how we Simplified descriptions of how we

think a system worksthink a system worksDisplacement factorsDisplacement factors

Aircraft over-flightsAircraft over-flights Flight path and frequencyFlight path and frequency

Vehicle and machinery noiseVehicle and machinery noise Road and cutblock proximityRoad and cutblock proximity

Human presenceHuman presence Proximity to recreational Proximity to recreational

areasareas

Competition factorsCompetition factors Not currently modeledNot currently modeled

Mortality factorsMortality factors Concentrated goat harvestConcentrated goat harvest

Site accessSite access Predation riskPredation risk

Bear, wolf, wolverine densityBear, wolf, wolverine density

Habitat Supply Modeling in the Mackenzie TSA: MOUNTAIN GOAT

Life Life RequisitesRequisites

DisplacemeDisplacementnt

MortalitMortalityy

CompetitionCompetition

S8M Research ScopeS8M Research Scoperesearch outcomes -> mgmt research outcomes -> mgmt

plansplansResponsibilities relative to PTP

Opportunities relative to PTP

PTP Management & PTP Management & MonitoringMonitoring

Results-based Mgmt Framework

Criterion

Element

Objective

Indicator

Target

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

PTP Outputs

O&G Industry Proponent

Dvlpmt Plans, Records, Reports

Monitoring

Baseline

Implementation (Tracking Compliance)

Effectiveness

Validation

Best Mgmt PracticesAccess Mgmt

Roles & Responsibilities

Adaptive Management

CIMF

Research Input

S8M Research ScopeS8M Research Scoperesearch outcomes -> mgmt research outcomes -> mgmt

plansplansResponsibilities S8M PTP Indicators and Targets relevant to Stone’s sheep S8M PTP Indicators and Targets relevant to Stone’s sheep

conservation. conservation. Mountain goats? B-P PTP?Mountain goats? B-P PTP? Review and recommend BMPs relevant to Stone’s sheep Review and recommend BMPs relevant to Stone’s sheep

conservation. conservation. Mountain goats?Mountain goats?

S8M Research ScopeS8M Research Scoperesearch outcomes -> mgmt research outcomes -> mgmt

plansplansResponsibilities S8M PTP Indicators and Targets relevant to Stone’s sheep S8M PTP Indicators and Targets relevant to Stone’s sheep

conservation. Mountain goats? B-P PTP?conservation. Mountain goats? B-P PTP? Review and recommend BMPs relevant to Stone’s sheep Review and recommend BMPs relevant to Stone’s sheep

conservation. Mountain goats?conservation. Mountain goats?

Given:Given:Limited to Oil and Gas (excluding geophysical activities)Limited to Oil and Gas (excluding geophysical activities)Limited to PTP areaLimited to PTP areaOnly Indicators & Targets are legally-binding (not BMPs or formal AM)Only Indicators & Targets are legally-binding (not BMPs or formal AM)

Are there:Are there:Other management needs? Interests? Applications? Plans? Other management needs? Interests? Applications? Plans?

Opportunities?How much do you as a committee want to facilitate or recommend?How much do you as a committee want to facilitate or recommend?

Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment

Spatial mappingSpatial mapping Cumulative effects – spatial, temporalCumulative effects – spatial, temporal

Using the information we have gained Using the information we have gained in this project and applying it in in this project and applying it in decision-making toolsdecision-making tools

Models that explain our understanding Models that explain our understanding of the system and identify of the system and identify uncertainties – probabilities of impactuncertainties – probabilities of impact

““Any benefit to one value does not come at an unacceptable Any benefit to one value does not come at an unacceptable expense to either one or both of its counterparts” expense to either one or both of its counterparts”

PTP Overall Goal PTP Overall Goal Optimization of ValuesOptimization of Values

SocialSocial

EconomicEconomic EnvironmentEnvironmentalal

Indicators and TargetsIndicators and Targets“ “ Setting a numerical value on the Targets has been one of the most Setting a numerical value on the Targets has been one of the most challenging aspects of creating the pre-tenure plans. The science challenging aspects of creating the pre-tenure plans. The science and information behind attempting to quantify short- and long-term and information behind attempting to quantify short- and long-term impacts of oil and gas activities, and therefore behind the impacts of oil and gas activities, and therefore behind the management direction that guide the activities, is imprecise and management direction that guide the activities, is imprecise and subjective. As a result, regular monitoring of activities and their subjective. As a result, regular monitoring of activities and their outcomes on the ground, and adapting to local conditions or new outcomes on the ground, and adapting to local conditions or new information, is essential”information, is essential”Looked at info that was available in sufficient detail and relevant Looked at info that was available in sufficient detail and relevant over broad scale – 5 focal species, all ungulates, winter range over broad scale – 5 focal species, all ungulates, winter range limiting factorlimiting factorSome value indicators are difficult to measureSome value indicators are difficult to measureLots of uncertainty in targets – complex system, Lots of uncertainty in targets – complex system, Thresholds (critical levels / conditions) are largely unknownThresholds (critical levels / conditions) are largely unknownMultiple competing valuesMultiple competing values

MACH_PROX: Proximity of

...

GT 1000m From 400m t

... LT 400m

33.3 33.3 33.3

MACH_DIST: Disturbance ...

Low Moderate High

33.3 33.3 33.3

GRD_DIST: Total Ground D

...

Low Moderate High

33.3 33.3 33.3

RD_DIST: Disturbance - Ro

...

Low Moderate High

33.3 33.3 33.3

RD_FREQ: Frequency of R

...

LT 1 per hr From 1 to 2 p

... GT 2 per hr

33.3 33.3 33.3

INPUT3: GIS to determine the proximity of roads

RD_PROX: Proximity to Ro

...

GT 400m Frm 50to400m LT 50m

33.3 33.3 33.3

INPUT2: User Inputs or Management Lever

INPUT5: User Inputs (GIS to determine the proximity of human activity) or Management Lever

HUM_PROX: Proximity of H

...

GT 100m From 50m to ... LT 50m

33.3 33.3 33.3

HUM_FREQ: Frequency of ...

GT 2daysbtwn LT 2daysbtwn

50.0 50.0

HUM_DIST: Disturbance - ...

Low Moderate High

33.3 33.3 33.3

INPUT4: User Inputs or Management Lever

GoatHSM: GROUND DISTURBANCE - SUMMER AND WINTER

INPUT1: GIS to determine the proximity of industrial activity (timber harvest, road construction, drilling) in current year and season (S=Apr15-Nov15; W=Nov16-Apr14).

GoatHSM: SUMMER ESCAPE TERRAIN

SH: Summer Habitat Types Other Glacier

50.0 50.0

FC: Forest Cover Non forested Forested

50.0 50.0

RGH: Roughness Irregular Smooth

50.0 50.0

SLP: Slope (Degrees) Frm 35to60 Other

50.0 50.0

AIR_DIST: Aerial Disturba ... Low Moderate High

33.3 33.3 33.3

GRD_DIST: Ground Distur ... Low Moderate High

33.3 33.3 33.3

TOT_DIST: Total Disturban ... High Moderate Low

33.3 33.3 33.3

NOTE1: SUMMER ground disturbance

HUNT: Local Goat Harvest No increase Inc 0 to 3pct Inc GT 3pct

33.3 33.3 33.3

SE_CAP: Habitat Capability Preferred Equivocal Avoided

33.3 33.3 33.3

SE_PREF: Habitat Preferen ... Preferred Equivocal Avoided

33.3 33.3 33.3

SE_VAL: Habitat Value High Moderate Low

33.3 33.3 33.3

NOTE2: SUMMER predation risk

PRED: Predation Risk Low Moderate High

33.3 33.3 33.3

Spatial Relationships: Spatial Relationships: Juxtaposition of Habitat Juxtaposition of Habitat

ElementsElements

Evaluating Relationships

Among Habitat Elements

Trails

Escape TerrainSummer/Winter

Mineral Licks

Escape TerrainStaging Areas