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Understanding Falkenmark’s Concept of Water Crowding in the Context of Limpopo Province South Africa:
Facing the Human Security Dilemma
Anthony TurtonPresentation to the Royal Swedish Academy of Science
Stockholm 21 October 2011
[email protected]: Anthony Turton 2011.
Polokwane, South Africa. Each white cross represents a farm murder since the advent of democracy in 1994.
Layout of Presentation
• Water Crowding as a concept.• Statistics for the Limpopo River basin in
South Africa.• Recent developments that raise alarm.
– Could Water Crowding become a driver of Genocide?
• Conclusion– My Hypothesis of Water Crowding as a Possible
Driver of Genocide.
Water Crowding as a Concept
Source: Pallett et al., 1997
Malin Falkenmark developed the concept of Water Crowding in the 1980’s. Also known as the Hydraulic Density of Population, this index has now become a global benchmark for
sustainability.
No empirical evidence exists of a stable political system and economy with a Water Crowding Index above 2,000 – an exception being Israel (a highly technological society
with massive external support from the USA). This shifts the focus to technology, because theoretically it is possible to grow economies beyond the “Water Barrier” if smart policies
induce technological solutions. This also raises the issue of leadership.
Water Crowding Index (Ashton et al., 2008)
2 3662 0092 3101 9334 97418 7901 80319 502
WCIPopulation2025
1 376 1 165 Maputo1 552 1 122 Incomati4 21911 906 Limpopo1 18311 319 Orange-Senqu
WCIPopulation2000
River Basin
Water Crowding Index (WCI) = Number of people per million cubic metres of water
South Africa will be defying global indicators if it attains sustained economic growth and social stability with these hydrological
fundamentals.
Remember, little empirical evidence exists of social stability and economic development above a value of 2000.
100200300400500600700800900
10001250150020002500
Mean AnnualRainfall (mm)
0 250 500 km
NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA
SOUTHAFRICA
ZAMBIA
ZIMBABWE
ANGOLA
D. R. C. TANZANIA
MOZABIQUE
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
MALAWI
= 860 mm isohyet
= World average rainfall
MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL
SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm
© PJ Ashton
South Africa has a water-constrained economy – in 2004 98% of the national water resource had been allocated at a high Assurance of Supply level – so we function at
the very limits of sustainability.The Limpopo River basin is over-allocated so it is
closed.
Characteristics of Closed Basins
Closed River Basins in Southern Africa
• Water resources have been over-allocated so competition is high.• Economic development potential is severely constrained.•Job creation is limited.•Sustainable livelihoods are under pressure.•Can state failure be linked to water crowding?•Can water crowding trigger genocide?
Source: Turton et al., 2008.
Percentage Increase in Water Needs by sector - 2025 (Ashton, 2009)
River Basin Urban Rural IrrigationMining + Industry
Power Generation
Forestry
2000 to 2025
Orange-Senqu + 77 - 10 - 7 - 10 + 37 0
Limpopo + 146 + 27 + 9 + 30 + 26 + 3
Incomati + 145 + 3 + 5 + 5 0 + 5
Maputo + 126 - 3 - 3 + 1 0 - 4
1. Dramatic increase in urban sector demand for water in all basins
2. Large increase in power sector demand for water in the Orange-Senqu and Limpopo basins
3. Increased water demands from rural and mining sectors in Limpopo basin
The Limpopo River Basin, already over-allocated by about 120%, has an extremely high WCI, and is facing a 241%
increase in demand by 2025.
Could this trigger social instability and become the genesis of state failure or genocide?
Understanding the Rwanda Genocide• The resource scarcity was land (and not water).• Driven by population growth.• Cultural practice dictated that a man could only marry once he had
enough land to sustain his wife and family.• Inheritance customs resulted in smaller parcels of land.• Genocide reset the clock.• Build-up was characterized by mass mobilization driven by populist
sloganeering.• The word “Cockroaches” was used in this rhetoric.• Masses were programmed to kill. • The world failed to intervene for a variety of reasons.• The daily killing rate exceeded that of the Holocaust for the duration of
the event (Ohlsson, 1999).
Populist rhetoric is labelling opposition
members as “cockroaches” and
other vermin that is normally
“exterminated”.
Genocide Watch International• Placed South Africa on Stage 5 (Polarization Phase) in 2002
because of the systematic and indiscriminate killing of white commercial farmers (the image on the Title slide).
• 900 Farmers were attacked and 140 were killed in 2001.• 1991 – 2001 saw 5,594 attacks on white farmers with 1,000
murders. • Per capita murder rate against white farmers is 311 per
100,000 in 2001, with 2.2% ethno-European farmers having been killed by then, 12% having been attacked.
• 15 Sept 2011 Genocide Watch downgrades South Africa to Stage 6 (Preparation) citing Julius Malema’s “Kill the Boer” campaign.
• The ruling party refuses to back off on claims that this is a “struggle song” to be protected as a cultural right.
• President Zuma continues to sing “Umshini Wami”.
Is Julius Malema Genocidal?
Is President Zuma’s Leadership Conducive to Genocide?
President Zuma’s theme song for re-
election is “Awuleth Umshini
Wami” which means “Bring back my Machine Gun”.
The population
is brutalized with a
collective lack of
empathy
Xenophobic attacks
persist in 2011
Xenophobic violence
erupted in South Africa in 2007 and was accompanied by extreme
brutality
Is This The Road to Anarchy?Protests in Johannesburg Aug/Sept 2011 supporting Malema’s right to sing “Kill the Boer” after court ruling
that this is hate speech.
Such scenes are reminiscent of the time just prior to the
democratic transition in 1994. (See Shaking Hands
with Billy for details)
The answers might lie in Limpopo Province
Water constraints to economic development are profound.
Malema is now calling for “regime change” in Botswana, the one country that might give
access to the Zambezi River, and thus relief in the future.
Image: Anthony Turton
This is where Julius Malema comes from and this is where his grass-roots support is based
Conclusion• Water is posing finite constraints to economic
development in the Limpopo Basin.• Social Ingenuity is needed to solve these fundamental
problems.• This is not being allowed to grow because of the
leadership meltdown and institutional collapse.• Zuma’s leadership is based on the raw emotion of
“Umshini Wami” which glorifies armed violence.• Malema’s leadership style resonates with the millions
of disaffected youth and creates a discernable “enemy”.• Farm killings continue with no evidence emerging that
the police force is regarding this as a credible threat.
This can result in xenophobic violence or
genocide where a clearly defined “enemy” exists.
Water Scarcity inhibits economic growth.
Driving poverty and raising frustration levels.
Which are exploited by political leadership by identifying an easily
defined “enemy”.In the absence of wise
national leadership and a credible police force.
Leadership and the capacity of the state to mobilize social capital is
the critical variable.
Hypothesis
While I have been sceptical about the notion of genocide in South Africa, I am starting to see evidence of state failure, and the growth of xenophobic violence
has to be taken seriously.
I no longer believe that genocide is impossible in South Africa, and I am starting to believe that Malin
Falkenmark’s notion of a “Water Barrier” has a lot of hidden truths still to be explored by serious scientists.
Thank YouAnd I hope I am wrong!
Image: Anthony Turton 2011.
http://www.shakinghandswithbilly.com