UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION A PRIMER.

UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RISK REDUCTION

A PRIMER

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKE PUBLIC POLICY IS A LEGAL MANDATE, A PLAN,

OR A WAY OF WORKING TOGETHER TO REDUCE

EARTHQUAKE RISK WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE

COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC & PRIVATE ASSETS.

EARTHQUAKE PUBLIC POLICY IS A LEGAL MANDATE, A PLAN,

OR A WAY OF WORKING TOGETHER TO REDUCE

EARTHQUAKE RISK WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE

COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC & PRIVATE ASSETS.

PUBLIC POLICIES INTEGRATE TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL

SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG-TERM BENEFIT

OF PEOPLE, PROPERTY, INFRASTRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT,

AND ENTERPRISE IN THE COMMUNITY

PUBLIC POLICIES INTEGRATE TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL

SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG-TERM BENEFIT

OF PEOPLE, PROPERTY, INFRASTRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT,

AND ENTERPRISE IN THE COMMUNITY

EACH POLICY OPTION SHOULD BEGIN WITH

A VISION OF THE GOAL AND

REALISTIC STRATEGIES FOR REACHING IT.

EACH POLICY OPTION SHOULD BEGIN WITH

A VISION OF THE GOAL AND

REALISTIC STRATEGIES FOR REACHING IT.

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

QUAKE DISASTER RISK QUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONREDUCTION

•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

SEISMICITYSEISMICITY TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE

FAULTS

IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE

FAULTS

FAULTS: SAN ANDREAS

MOTAGUA FAULT, GUATEMALA

FAULTS: DEAD SEA RIFT ZONE

FAULTS: COCOS PLATE SUBDUCTION ZONE

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL

DISASTER AGENTS)

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL

DISASTER AGENTS)

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SITE AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS








DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT

EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES,”

WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE

COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS.

RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES,”

WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE

COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS.

EXPOSUREMODEL

EXPOSUREMODEL

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

VULNERABILITYMODEL

VULNERABILITYMODEL

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

UNREINFO

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REINFORCED C

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FORCED WALLS

INTENSITYINTENSITY

REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS

STEEL FRAME

ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME

VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX

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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

SUN-DRIED BRICKS: BAM, IRAN: DECEMBER 26, 2003

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A COMMUNITY

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE

EARTHQUAKE: EXPOSURE: PEOPLE

BUILDING STOCK

INFRASTRUCTURE

GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE

RISK ASSESSMENT: ALGIERSRISK ASSESSMENT: ALGIERS

• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?

• WHEN?• HAZARDS?• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?• WHAT IS AT RISK?• VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-

ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?

• WHEN?• HAZARDS?• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?• WHAT IS AT RISK?• VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-

ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ELEMENTSELEMENTS

ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ELEMENTSELEMENTS

EARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKE

EVENTEVENT

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

PEOPLEPROPERTYINFRASTRUCTUREGOVERNMENT AND BUSINESSENTERPRISE

EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

OUTPUT

HIGH RISK BUILDINGS

HIGH RISK BUILDINGS

HIGH RISK AREASHIGH RISK AREAS

GEOLOGIC, SOILS, AND SLOPES

GEOLOGIC, SOILS, AND SLOPES

LAND USELAND USE

CONSTRUCTION TYPES

CONSTRUCTION TYPES

SPECIAL BUILDINGS

SPECIAL BUILDINGS

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

1. DATA1. DATA 2. EVALUTION2. EVALUTION

NEEDS FOR NEEDS FOR LOSS-LOSS-

REDUCTION REDUCTION MEASURESMEASURES

DAMAGE DAMAGE INJURIESINJURIESDAMAGE DAMAGE INJURIESINJURIES

UNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISK

COLLAPSE COLLAPSE DEATHSDEATHS

COLLAPSE COLLAPSE DEATHSDEATHS

LOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTIONLOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSS

RISKRISKRISKRISK

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”


HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

FLOODING

INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE



EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)

• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)

• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES • DISASTER SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

• DATABASES • DISASTER SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT

• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION

• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS

• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)

• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS

• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)

• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES

EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ENCOMPASSES

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ENCOMPASSES

PREVENTION, MITIGATION,AND PREPAREDNESS; MONITORING, FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS;

EMERGENCY RESPONSE; RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

PREVENTION, MITIGATION,AND PREPAREDNESS; MONITORING, FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS;

EMERGENCY RESPONSE; RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION POLICIESDISASTER RISK REDUCTION POLICIES

RECOVERY & RECOVERY & RECONSTR.RECONSTR.

ALL ELEMENTS ALL ELEMENTS ARE ARE

INTERRELATEDINTERRELATED

PREVENTION & PREVENTION & MITIGATIONMITIGATION PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS

EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSERESPONSE

COMMUNITY SCALE COMMUNITY SCALE

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES


• PREVENTION (CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS)

• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)

• LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)

• PREVENTION (CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS)

• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)

• LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)

PREVENTIONPREVENTION

• BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILD-ING COLLAPSE.

• PERFORMANCE STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION FOR LIFELINES.

• BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILD-ING COLLAPSE.

• PERFORMANCE STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION FOR LIFELINES.

AVOIDANCEAVOIDANCE

• LAND USE REGULATIONS FACILITATE AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION

• LAND USE REGULATIONS FACILITATE AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION



• SITE MODIFICATION • REAL-TIME

MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• HAZARD FORECASTS• QUAKE SCENARIOS • RESPONSE TO THE

EARTHQUAKE, MON-ITORING, HAZARD FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS.

• SITE MODIFICATION • REAL-TIME

MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• HAZARD FORECASTS• QUAKE SCENARIOS • RESPONSE TO THE

EARTHQUAKE, MON-ITORING, HAZARD FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS.

SITE MODIFICATIONSITE MODIFICATION

• ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMEDIATION) CAN PREVENT LIQUEFACTION

• ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMEDIATION) CAN PREVENT LIQUEFACTION

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING

WARNING SYSTEMS WARNING SYSTEMS

• FACILITATES GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY OF TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP THROUGH HORIZONAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

• FACILITATES GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY OF TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP THROUGH HORIZONAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE

• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL

DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

• POLITICAL CHAOS

• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL

DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

• POLITICAL CHAOS

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE

• SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE THAT LEFT 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.

• SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE THAT LEFT 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1971 SAN FERNANDO EARTHQUAKE

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1971 SAN FERNANDO EARTHQUAKE

• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING.

• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKE


• MASS CARE PROVIDES A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND RECOVERY PERIODS.

• MASS CARE PROVIDES A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND RECOVERY PERIODS.



• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDES TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING RECOVERY

• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDES TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY

• EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY

• THE GOAL IS “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”

• EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY

• THE GOAL IS “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: 1988 SPITAK EARTHQUAKE

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: 1988 SPITAK EARTHQUAKE

• RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION SHOULD BE MORE THAN ”RESTOR-ATION TO NORMAL.”

• IT SHOULD BE LINKED WITH PREVENTION/

• RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION SHOULD BE MORE THAN ”RESTOR-ATION TO NORMAL.”

• IT SHOULD BE LINKED WITH PREVENTION/

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE


• 80,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION

BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE

AFFECTED

• 80,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION

BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE

AFFECTED



• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS,” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD.

• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS,” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD.

THE VISION OF THE END IS

DISASTER-RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT

IN EVERY COMMUNITY.

THE VISION OF THE END IS

DISASTER-RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT

IN EVERY COMMUNITY.

UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION A PRIMER.

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Transcript of UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION A PRIMER.