UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION A PRIMER

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Transcript of UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION A PRIMER

  • UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

    A PRIMER

  • EARTHQUAKES

  • EARTHQUAKE PUBLIC POLICY IS A LEGAL MANDATE, A PLAN, OR A WAY OF WORKING TOGETHER TO REDUCE EARTHQUAKE RISK WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE COMMUNITYS PUBLIC & PRIVATE ASSETS.

  • PUBLIC POLICIES INTEGRATE TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG-TERM BENEFIT OF PEOPLE, PROPERTY, INFRASTRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT, AND ENTERPRISE IN THE COMMUNITY

  • EACH POLICY OPTION SHOULD BEGIN WITH A VISION OF THE GOAL AND REALISTIC STRATEGIES FOR REACHING IT.

  • COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONHAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

  • EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

  • IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS

  • FAULTS: SAN ANDREAS

  • MOTAGUA FAULT, GUATEMALA

  • FAULTS: DEAD SEA RIFT ZONE

  • FAULTS: COCOS PLATE SUBDUCTION ZONE

  • EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

  • GROUNDSHAKING

  • EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT

  • ELEMENTS OF RISKRISK

  • RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM DISASTER LABORATORIES, WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE COMMUNITYS POLITICAL PROCESS.

  • EXPOSUREMODEL

  • VULNERABILITYMODEL

  • INTENSITYMEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUECONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING

  • SUN-DRIED BRICKS: BAM, IRAN: DECEMBER 26, 2003

  • RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A COMMUNITY RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSUREEARTHQUAKE: EXPOSURE: PEOPLEBUILDING STOCKINFRASTRUCTUREGOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE

  • RISK ASSESSMENT: ALGIERSWHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?WHEN?HAZARDS?HOW BIG OR SEVERE?WHAT IS AT RISK?VULNERABILITIES?EXPECTED DAMAGE?EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

  • ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ELEMENTS

  • GEOLOGIC, SOILS, AND SLOPESLAND USECONSTRUCTION TYPESSPECIAL BUILDINGSRISK ASSESSMENT1. DATA2. EVALUTIONNEEDS FOR LOSS-REDUCTION MEASURES

  • UNACCEPTABLE RISKRISK

  • INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKINGEARTHQUAKESSOIL AMPLIFICATIONPERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE)IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

    LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTSCAUSES OF DAMAGEDISASTER LABORATORIES

  • HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVESTSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUPVERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUPINADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING

    INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGEDISASTER LABORATORIES

  • EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

  • EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTIONMEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOSZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

  • EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONAUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMTPREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATIONADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)

    COMPUTER AIDED DESIGNPERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDSACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

  • EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES

  • EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ENCOMPASSESPREVENTION, MITIGATION,AND PREPAREDNESS; MONITORING, FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS; EMERGENCY RESPONSE; RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

  • DISASTER RISK REDUCTION POLICIESRECOVERY & RECONSTR.ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATEDPREVENTION & MITIGATIONPREPAREDNESSEMERGENCY RESPONSECOMMUNITY SCALE

  • RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIESPREVENTION (CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS)PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)

  • PREVENTIONBUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILD-ING COLLAPSE.PERFORMANCE STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION FOR LIFELINES.

  • AVOIDANCELAND USE REGULATIONS FACILITATE AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION

  • RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIESSITE MODIFICATION REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMSHAZARD FORECASTSQUAKE SCENARIOS RESPONSE TO THE EARTHQUAKE, MON-ITORING, HAZARD FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS.

  • SITE MODIFICATIONENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMEDIATION) CAN PREVENT LIQUEFACTION

  • PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING

  • WARNING SYSTEMS FACILITATES GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF HARMS WAY OF TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP THROUGH HORIZONAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

  • EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE10,000 DEAD20,000 INJURED300,000 HOMELESSNEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONLOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTUREPOLITICAL CHAOS

  • EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE10,000 DEAD20,000 INJURED300,000 HOMELESSNEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONLOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTUREPOLITICAL CHAOS

  • EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKESEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE THAT LEFT 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.

  • EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1971 SAN FERNANDO EARTHQUAKELOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING.

  • EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKEMASS CARE PROVIDES A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND RECOVERY PERIODS.

  • EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKEA TENT CITY PROVIDES TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING RECOVERY

  • EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERYEARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERYTHE GOAL IS RESTORATION TO NORMAL

  • RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: 1988 SPITAK EARTHQUAKERECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION SHOULD BE MORE THAN RESTOR-ATION TO NORMAL. IT SHOULD BE LINKED WITH PREVENTION/

  • RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE80,000 DEAD30,000 INJURED300,000 HOMELESS25 MILLION BUILDINGS DAMAGED45 MILLION PEOPLE AFFECTED

  • RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKESCHOOLS ARE SAFE HAVENS, SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD.

  • THE VISION OF THE END ISDISASTER-RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN EVERY COMMUNITY.

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