Understanding and Improving the Supermarket … · Understanding and Improving the Supermarket...

23
Understanding and Improving the Supermarket Price Reduction Process Duncan Apthorp Supply Chain Development

Transcript of Understanding and Improving the Supermarket … · Understanding and Improving the Supermarket...

Understanding and Improving the

Supermarket Price Reduction Process

Duncan Apthorp

Supply Chain Development

Tesco: Multinational retailer

12 countries

> 530,000 people

£72.4bn sales

Tesco UK

3,000+ stores

30,000+ products in big stores

23 depots

60,000,000 cases delivered a week

Supply Chain Development Projects Improving promotions

Replacing our sales forecasting

Reduced

Waste

Stock

Predicting weather effects on sales

Less

summer

food waste

Better

on-shelf

availability

Optimising store operations

Less

Waste

Where does Matlab fit in Tesco?

• Runs the business

• Hard Real Time

• 24/7/365 uptime

• Monthly updates

•12 month lead time

IBM Mainframe Teradata Data Warehouse

• 5 years of data

•100 Tbytes, 150 cores

• Soft real time

• SQL Only for now

• Batch jobs / user queries

• Agile Development

• Analysis

• Model Development

• Simulations

Matlab

Desktop and Servers

Optimising Reductions

Why reduce products going out of date?

• It’s good for our customers

• It’s good for the environment

• It’s good for business

• It’s a legal requirement

What is the Process ?

Up to 2010

• Products going out of date are scanned each evening

• Reduced up to 3 times

• Expiring product taken off sale before midnight

• Reduction percentages based on colleague’s experience

What is the Process ?

2010 – Automated Reduction Percentages

• Reduction percentages automated

• Reductions calculated automatically:

• Quantity going out of date

• Sales forecast

• Product type

The automated process brought major benefits

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sale

s U

plift

Reduction

Price Elasticity

Fruit

& Veg

Meat

Increased

Sales

Less

Waste

2014 – New Reduction Model

• Second Tesco Mathworks joint development

• Tesco • Business / systems knowledge

• Big data expertise

• Mathworks • Increase in capacity

• Data Analytics – new ways of analysing and visualising data

• Statistical Modelling – new approaches

• Production model development

• MATLAB as the common language

2014 - Detailed Reduction Optimisation Model

Programme was based on learnings from previous project:

1. Define programme aims and KPIs

2. Understand the data

3. Build a measurement framework

4. Build your first models, get a quick win

5. Then build the final models

KPIs - what do we want to achieve?

• Make it simple and clear for our customers

• Minimise our impact on the environment (waste tonnes)

• Minimise the cost (waste in £)

• Minimise the effort involved for our colleagues in store

Historic data shows a good spread of reductions

Relationship between reduction and rate of sales

14 Apr 00:00 15 Apr 00:00 16 Apr 00:00 17 Apr 00:00 18 Apr 00:000

5

10x 10

5

£ W

aste

14 Apr 00:00 15 Apr 00:00 16 Apr 00:00 17 Apr 00:00 18 Apr 00:000

5

10x 10

5

Sto

ck

Date Scan

Overstock

Reduction

Sales

Stock, Waste

START

Evaluation Framework

Model

• Tesco retail and data knowledge

• Mathworks statistics and data analytics

• Models effect of reduction on sales rate

• Predicts KPIs

• Creates optimum reductions

Model Simplified Schematic

Merge

Scans

Sales

Stock

Test

Train Models for

Products

Select

Reduce %

Calculate

Uplift

Calculate

Quantity

Phased roll out to learn and measure benefits

Fully

Introduced

(2000+ stores)

Store director

group

(30 to 40 stores)

Nationally representative trial

(200 stores)

Customer Service Level Availability

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.3% 98.1% -0.2%

Control Stores: 98.4% 98.0% -0.4%

Dot Com Availability

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 96.7% 96.3% -0.4%

Control Stores: 96.7% 96.0% -0.8%

AM Gap Scan Availability Unweighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.8% 98.4% -0.4%

Control Stores: 98.8% 98.5% -0.3%

AM Gap Scan Availability Weighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.5% 98.2% -0.3%

Control Stores: 98.5% 98.2% -0.4%

PM Gap Scan Availability Unweighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.6% 98.4% -0.2%

Control Stores: 98.6% 98.4% -0.2%

PM Gap Scan Availability Weighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 97.3% 97.2% -0.1%

Control Stores: 97.4% 97.1% -0.3%

Stock Holding as Days Cover

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 9.7 9.9 0.2

Control Stores: 9.1 9.6 0.4

Back room Stock Holding as Days Cover

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 3.4 3.4 0.0

Control Stores: 3.2 3.4 0.2

Sales Forecast error

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 58.6% 54.0% -4.6%

Control Stores: 55.7% 56.3% 0.6%

Sales Forecast Bias (Adj sales vs 0hr Forecast)

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: -14.5% -6.2% 8.3%

Control Stores: -12.7% -13.5% -0.8%

DC to store service level

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 97.4% 95.8% -1.6%

Control Stores: 97.4% 97.1% -0.4%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-1.2%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-5.2%

Trial vs Control

Performance

9.0%

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.14%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-0.17

-0.25

Trial vs Control

Performance

BSF Grocery National Roll-Out

(All)

Trial vs Control

Performance

-0.01%

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.25%

Trial vs Control

Performance

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.09%

0.31%

0.04%

Trial vs Control

Performance

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99.5%

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Cumulative

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Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.3% 98.1% -0.2%

Control Stores: 98.4% 98.0% -0.4%

Dot Com Availability

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 96.7% 96.3% -0.4%

Control Stores: 96.7% 96.0% -0.8%

AM Gap Scan Availability Unweighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.8% 98.4% -0.4%

Control Stores: 98.8% 98.5% -0.3%

AM Gap Scan Availability Weighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.5% 98.2% -0.3%

Control Stores: 98.5% 98.2% -0.4%

PM Gap Scan Availability Unweighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.6% 98.4% -0.2%

Control Stores: 98.6% 98.4% -0.2%

PM Gap Scan Availability Weighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 97.3% 97.2% -0.1%

Control Stores: 97.4% 97.1% -0.3%

Stock Holding as Days Cover

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 9.7 9.9 0.2

Control Stores: 9.1 9.6 0.4

Back room Stock Holding as Days Cover

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 3.4 3.4 0.0

Control Stores: 3.2 3.4 0.2

Sales Forecast error

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 58.6% 54.0% -4.6%

Control Stores: 55.7% 56.3% 0.6%

Sales Forecast Bias (Adj sales vs 0hr Forecast)

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: -14.5% -6.2% 8.3%

Control Stores: -12.7% -13.5% -0.8%

DC to store service level

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 97.4% 95.8% -1.6%

Control Stores: 97.4% 97.1% -0.4%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-1.2%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-5.2%

Trial vs Control

Performance

9.0%

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.14%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-0.17

-0.25

Trial vs Control

Performance

BSF Grocery National Roll-Out

(All)

Trial vs Control

Performance

-0.01%

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.25%

Trial vs Control

Performance

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.09%

0.31%

0.04%

Trial vs Control

Performance

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22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

Customer Service Level Availability

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.3% 98.1% -0.2%

Control Stores: 98.4% 98.0% -0.4%

Dot Com Availability

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 96.7% 96.3% -0.4%

Control Stores: 96.7% 96.0% -0.8%

AM Gap Scan Availability Unweighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.8% 98.4% -0.4%

Control Stores: 98.8% 98.5% -0.3%

AM Gap Scan Availability Weighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.5% 98.2% -0.3%

Control Stores: 98.5% 98.2% -0.4%

PM Gap Scan Availability Unweighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 98.6% 98.4% -0.2%

Control Stores: 98.6% 98.4% -0.2%

PM Gap Scan Availability Weighted

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 97.3% 97.2% -0.1%

Control Stores: 97.4% 97.1% -0.3%

Stock Holding as Days Cover

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 9.7 9.9 0.2

Control Stores: 9.1 9.6 0.4

Back room Stock Holding as Days Cover

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 3.4 3.4 0.0

Control Stores: 3.2 3.4 0.2

Sales Forecast error

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 58.6% 54.0% -4.6%

Control Stores: 55.7% 56.3% 0.6%

Sales Forecast Bias (Adj sales vs 0hr Forecast)

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: -14.5% -6.2% 8.3%

Control Stores: -12.7% -13.5% -0.8%

DC to store service level

Pre Trial

Cumulative

Trial

Cumulative

Trial vs Pre

Trial

Trial Stores: 97.4% 95.8% -1.6%

Control Stores: 97.4% 97.1% -0.4%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-1.2%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-5.2%

Trial vs Control

Performance

9.0%

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.14%

Trial vs Control

Performance

-0.17

-0.25

Trial vs Control

Performance

BSF Grocery National Roll-Out

(All)

Trial vs Control

Performance

-0.01%

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.25%

Trial vs Control

Performance

Trial vs Control

Performance

0.09%

0.31%

0.04%

Trial vs Control

Performance

96.5%

97.0%

97.5%

98.0%

98.5%

99.0%

99.5%

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

97.6%

97.8%

98.0%

98.2%

98.4%

98.6%

98.8%

99.0%

16 A

pr

20 A

pr

24 A

pr

28 A

pr

02 M

ay

06 M

ay

10 M

ay

14 M

ay

18 M

ay

22 M

ay

26 M

ay

13 J

un

17 J

un

21 J

un

25 J

un

29 J

un

03 J

ul

07 J

ul

11 J

ul

15 J

ul

19 J

ul

23 J

ul

27 J

ul

31 J

ul

04 A

ug

08 A

ug

12 A

ug

96.0%

96.5%

97.0%

97.5%

98.0%

98.5%

99.0%

99.5%

100.0%

100.5%

16 A

pr

20 A

pr

24 A

pr

28 A

pr

02 M

ay

06 M

ay

10 M

ay

14 M

ay

18 M

ay

22 M

ay

26 M

ay

13 J

un

17 J

un

21 J

un

25 J

un

29 J

un

03 J

ul

07 J

ul

11 J

ul

15 J

ul

19 J

ul

23 J

ul

27 J

ul

31 J

ul

04 A

ug

08 A

ug

12 A

ug

95.5%96.0%96.5%97.0%97.5%98.0%98.5%99.0%99.5%

100.0%100.5%

16 A

pr

20 A

pr

24 A

pr

28 A

pr

02 M

ay

06 M

ay

10 M

ay

14 M

ay

18 M

ay

22 M

ay

26 M

ay

13 J

un

17 J

un

21 J

un

25 J

un

29 J

un

03 J

ul

07 J

ul

11 J

ul

15 J

ul

19 J

ul

23 J

ul

27 J

ul

31 J

ul

04 A

ug

08 A

ug

12 A

ug

95.0%

95.5%

96.0%

96.5%

97.0%

97.5%

98.0%

98.5%

16 A

pr

20 A

pr

24 A

pr

28 A

pr

02 M

ay

06 M

ay

10 M

ay

14 M

ay

18 M

ay

22 M

ay

26 M

ay

13 J

un

17 J

un

21 J

un

25 J

un

29 J

un

03 J

ul

07 J

ul

11 J

ul

15 J

ul

19 J

ul

23 J

ul

27 J

ul

31 J

ul

04 A

ug

08 A

ug

12 A

ug

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

16 A

pr

19 A

pr

22 A

pr

25 A

pr

28 A

pr

01 M

ay

04 M

ay

07 M

ay

10 M

ay

13 M

ay

16 M

ay

19 M

ay

22 M

ay

25 M

ay

11 J

un

14 J

un

17 J

un

20 J

un

23 J

un

26 J

un

29 J

un

02 J

ul

05 J

ul

08 J

ul

11 J

ul

14 J

ul

17 J

ul

20 J

ul

23 J

ul

26 J

ul

29 J

ul

01 A

ug

04 A

ug

07 A

ug

10 A

ug

13 A

ug

Automated daily project tracking

Availability

Stock Holding

Back Room Stock

Forecast Accuracy

Coming to

your local

store 2015

Working with Mathworks – some tips

• Agree the goals, and how to measure them

• Make it a joint development

• Have a single contact for day to day operations

• Hold regular high level reviews

• Don’t accept things that feel wrong

The Future – in database analytics

IBM Mainframe Teradata Data Warehouse

• in database analytics for

heavy lifting

Matlab for:

• Control

• Simulation

• Small models

Matlab

Desktop and Servers

New Technologies for Retail

Thank you – Question?

[email protected]