UNCLASSIFIED Iraq Status Report -...

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UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Iraq Status Report May 12, 2010 Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs U.S. Department of State

Transcript of UNCLASSIFIED Iraq Status Report -...

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May 12, 2010

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IraqStatus Report

May 12, 2010

Bureau of Near Eastern AffairsU.S. Department of State

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

HIGHLIGHTSPOLITICAL

• Governance & LegislationSECURITY

• Situation UpdateDIPLOMATIC

• Political EngagementECONOMIC

• Oil •Fiscal and Monetary Affairs• Non-Energy• Public Services – Electricity

BEYOND BAGHDAD

Contact Information, Notes and Source Citations

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HIGHLIGHTS

• IHEC Continues Manual Recount of Ballots Cast in Baghdad (POLITICAL, page 4)

• Attacks Kill 119 Across Iraq in Deadliest Day of 2010 (SECURITY, page 9)

• Talabani Makes an Official Visit to Egypt (DIPLOMATIC, page 11)

• Oil Ministry Anticipates Competitive Offers for Natural Gas Fields (ECONOMIC, page 13)

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POLITICAL - Governance & Legislation

IHEC continues ballot recount in Baghdad

Baghdad Ballot Recount Halfway Complete: • Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced that that the

manual recount of 2.5 million ballots has reached the halfway point. The recount began on May 3 for all ballots cast in Baghdad during the parliamentary election.

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Minister of Oil

Minister of State at Large

(F) = Female

***Formerly Iraqiya

Nuri Kamil al-Maliki

Prime MinisterJalal Talabani

President

Tariq al-HashimiDeputy President

Adil Abd al-MahdiDeputy President

Rowsch Shaways

Deputy Prime Minister

Coalition Affiliation (at time of appointment)

United Iraq Alliance

Kurdistani Alliance

Iraqi Accord Front

Iraqi National List

Other / Independent

POLITICAL – Government of Iraq

Minister of Culture

Mahir Dilli Ibrahim al-Hadithi Dr. Karim Wahid al-Hasan

Minister of Electricity

Dr. Abd al-Samad Rahman Sultan

Minister of Displacement & Migration

Abd al-Qadr al-Mufriji

Minister of Defense Minister of Agriculture Minister of CommunicationsFaruq Abd al-Qadir Abd al-Rahman

Dr. Khudayr Mousa Jaffar al-Khuzai

Minister of Education

Bayan Jabr

Minister of Finance

Dr. Nermin Othman Hassan (F)

Minister of Environment

Hoshyar Mahmud Zebari

Minister of Foreign Affairs Minister of HealthDr. Salih Mahdi Mutlab

al-Hasnawi Abid Dhiyab al-Ujayli

Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research

Eng. Mahmud Muhammad Jawad al-Radi

Minister of Labor & Social Affairs

Bayan Dizayee (F)

Minister of Housing & Construction

Fawzi Fransu Hariri

Minister of Industry & Minerals

Jawad Kadhum Eidan al-Bulani

Minister of Interior

Dara Nur al-Din

Minister of Justice

Eng. Wijdan Mikhail Salim (F)

Minister of Human Rights

Riyadh Abd al-Hamza Gharib

Minister of Municipalities & Public Works

Dr. Raid Jahid Fahmi

Minister of Science & Technology

Vacant

Minister of TradeDr. Husayn Ibrahim al-

ShahristaniAmir Abd al-Jabar Ismail

Minister of Transportation

Eng. Shirwan Kamil al-Waili

Minister of State for National Security

Dr. Akram Mousa Hadi al-Hakim

Minister of State for National Dialogue

Eng. Jasim Muhammad Jaffar

Minister of Youth & Sports

Dr. Abd al-Latif Jamal Rashid

Minister of Water Resources

Dr. Thamir Jafar al-Zubaidi

Minister of State for Civil Society Affairs

Minister of State for Tourism and Antiquities

Dr. Khulud Sami Izzara al-Majun (F), Acting)

Minister of State for Women’s Affairs

Safa al-Din Muhammad al-Safi

Minister of State for CoR Affairs

Dr. Qahtan Abbas Numanal-JabburiDr. Muhammad Munajid Aifan

al-Dulaymi

Minister of State for Foreign Affairs

Dr. Khulud Sami Izzara al-Majun (F)

Minister of State for Provinces Affairs

Vacant

Ali Ghalib Baban

Minister of Planning

Minister of State at Large Minister of State at Large

Ali Muhammad Ahmad Hasan Radhi Kazim al-SariMuhammad Abbas Muhammad al-Uraybi

Rafi Hiad Jiad al-Issawi

Deputy Prime Minister

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POLITICAL – Key Legislative Issues

Legislative Process

Hydrocarbons Package: The Framework Law was resubmitted to the Oil and Gas Committee on October 26, 2008 and then returned to the Council of Ministers. There has been no progress on the other three laws in the package.

NGO Law: This law, approved March 3, will regulate the operations and funding of Non-Governmental Organizations operating within Iraq.

Debate after 2nd Reading, Vote after 3rd Reading, and Committee Reports Throughout

Council of Ministers

(CoM)

ShuraCouncil

Council of Representatives (COR)Presidency

CouncilPublished in

Official Gazette

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POLITICAL – Refugee Update

There are approximately 295,000 Iraqi refugees currently registered with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in neighboring countries. There are likely significant numbers of unregistered refugees as well. UNHCR reports that 1.5 million Iraqis remain internally displaced due to sectarian violence following the Samarra Mosque bombing of February 2006.

In FY09, the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration contributed $303.4 million to international and nongovernmental organizations to assist displaced Iraqis inside the country and in the region.

Since the program's inception in FY07, 44,983 Iraqi refugees have been admitted to the U.S. for resettlement.

As of September 2009, a total of 1,143 Special Immigrant Visa (SIVs) have been issued for Iraqi translators and interpreters (and their dependents) since FY07 (under the Section 1059 program).

As of September 2009, a total of 1,716 SIVs have been issued for Iraqis employed by the U.S. government (and their dependents) since FY08 (under the Section 1244 program).

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced on July 24 that the United States was contributing more than $100 million in new assistance to support the return and reintegration of displaced Iraqis.

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POLITICAL – Refugee Update

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SECURITY – Situation Update

Attacks Kill 119 across Iraq in Deadliest Day of 2010: • Iraqi Government officials blame Al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) for the May 10 attacks that

have so far killed 119 people, making it the deadliest day in Iraq this year. Army and police checkpoints were attacked at dawn by insurgents in coordinated drive-by shootings and bombings that killed at least 23 people, 10 of whom were police officers, in Baghdad and surrounding neighborhoods. In Hillah, south of Baghdad, a suicide bomber detonated himself in a crowd that had gathered following a double car bombing outside of a textile factory, killing 45 and wounding over 140. Car bombs also claimed lives in Mosul, Fallujah, Samarra, and Sweira. Later in the day, a bombing in Basrah killed an additional 20 people.

Prominent Sunni Cleric Killed in Shooting: • Abdul-Jalil al-Fehdawi, a prominent Sunni cleric and deputy head of the Council of

Iraqi Scholars, was killed in a drive-by shooting in Baghdad. The Council of Iraqi Scholars is an independent body that issues fatwas or religious decrees. The group is unpopular with Sunni extremist and terrorists groups like al-Qaida due to its moderate views on Islam.

Wave of violence claims 119 lives

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SECURITY – Situation Update

Suspected AQI Leader and Two Associates Arrested: • A suspected high-level AQI leader and two associates were arrested by Iraq Security

Forces and U.S. advisors during joint forces operations in northern Iraq. The suspect is the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq’s (ISI) bribery operations, the organization within ISI primarily responsible for operations against judicial officials. He is also believed responsible for facilitating the release of terrorists from detention centers.

Turkish Air force Strikes Kurdish Rebels in Northern Iraq: • The Turkish Air Force struck Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets in northern Iraq

after two Turkish soldiers were attacked and killed by PKK militants reportedly operating from inside northern Iraq. The counter-attack by the Turkish military reportedly killed at least five PKK militants.

Wave of violence claims 119 lives

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DIPLOMATIC – Political Engagement

Talabani Visits Egypt: • Iraqi President Jalal Talabani made an official visit to Egypt on May 8 to hold meetings

with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and senior Egyptian officials. According to a presidential statement released by Talabani’s office, the meetings primarily focused on developments in Iraq after the parliamentary election.

Iraq strengthens regional ties

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Revenue estimates:2008: $61.9 Billion 2009: $39.2 Billion 2010 (ytd): $16.3 Billion

ECONOMIC – Oil

Crude Oil Update:Price averages in world markets closed with the following prices:Basrah Light at $78.03/barrel Dated Brent at $82.48/barrelWTI Cushing at $80.22/barrel Oman/Dubai at $83.90/barrel

2.49 2.50 2.50 2.37 2.40 2.46 2.44

2.25 2.38 2.41

1.98 1.95 1.89 1.92 1.91 1.92 2.05

1.84 1.74

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Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10

Million

Barre

ls Per D

ay (M

BPD)

Iraq Crude Oil Production and Exports

Production Exports

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ECONOMIC – Oil/Gas

Oil Ministry Anticipates Competitive Offers for Natural Gas Fields:• Iraq’s oil minister invited international energy companies to bid for the development

of three untapped natural gas fields. Husayn al-Shahristani noted that 45 pre-qualified companies with experience in gas projects will submit their offers in Iraq's third energy bidding round set for September 1. The three gas fields being offered in the third bidding round are the 5.6 trillion cubic feet Akkas field near the border with Syria, the 4.5 trillion cubic feet Mansouriya in Diyala province, and the 1.1 trillion cubic feet Siba field near Kuwait and Iran. “We have indications that there is renewed interest among companies to compete for these fields,” al-Shahristani stated at the Oil Ministry in Baghdad as he announced the new bidding round. “We hope to find a real competition between the companies and to get competitive offers,” he added. “We expect that these companies will come with offers better than the ones they gave before.”

Iraq’s third bid round scheduled for early September

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ECONOMIC – Fiscal and Monetary Affairs

9.2%

7.1%

8.3%

3.8%4.7%

8.8%7.9%

10.8%

8.2%

5.5%4.8%

6.1%

0.6% 0.2%

-3.1%

-5.7% -5.6%

0.7%

-1.5%-0.3%

-2.7%

-6.4%-4.9%

-4.4%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09

Year-on-Year Inflation

Core Inflation (excludes fuel, electricity, communications, and transport prices) Overall Inflation

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ECONOMIC – Fiscal and Monetary Affairs

Economic Indicator This Week Last Week Last Month Last YearIraqi Debt Swap Bond Prices and YieldsPrice (USD) $82.32 $83.67 $81.53 $64.50Yield 7.64% 7.47% 7.72% 10.32%

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ECONOMIC – Non-Energy

Latest Carrier Airline to Begin Express Service to Baghdad: • Emirates Airlines announced its launch of weekly flights to Baghdad starting in July.

The Dubai-based airline plans to operate on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. The Emirates Airlines Chief noted that “Iraq is well on the road to recovery and we are confident that the time is right to commence our operations there.” Analysts report that the flights are a “possible sign of increased Arab investment in Iraq’s oil and commercial sectors.” The airline said it also “hopes to play an economic role between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iraq by exporting goods including clothing, food, electronics and oil well equipment.”

Emirates Airlines will launch weekly flights to Iraq in July

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Public Services – Electricity

• Electricity supply from the grid May 4-10 was 6% above the same period in 2009 and met 66% of estimated demand, compared with 68% for the year-earlier period.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Aug-03

Nov-03

Feb-04

May-04

Aug-04

Nov-04

Feb-05

May-05

Aug-05

Nov-05

Feb-06

May-06

Aug-06

Nov-06

Feb-07

May-07

Aug-07

Nov-07

Feb-08

May-08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Daily Electricity Supply from the Grid and Estimated Daily Demand

Supply from grid Estimated demand

Private generation fills an unknown part of supply-demand gap

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Beyond Baghdad

Recent Highlights

Dhi Qar

“…we will help Iraq's institutions strengthen their capacity to protect the rule of law, confront corruption, and deliver basic services.”

President Barack Obama

Erbil

The Governor of Erbil and RRT Erbil hosted a ceremony at the newly refurbished Erbil Orphanage and Senior Center. All major Kurdish language news outlets were present and were given a tour of the site. The facilities include housing for both the young and elderly, a cafeteria, library, computer lab, and space for art, music, and athletics. The Center teaches residents the skills they need to live independently and reintegrate into society.

RRT Erbil Team Leader Visits Orphanage and Elderly Center

PRT Dhi Qar staff and provincial council members attended the ribbon cutting ceremony for a new wing at the Mittica Medical Center. The new facilities will have an in-house ob-gyn, a delivery ward, room for primary care examinations, and an ambulance. In addition to treating people, the Center also acts as a training facility and teaching hospital. Medical specialists and doctors provide hands-on training to their Iraqi counterparts, while the PRT staff train Iraqis in non-medical fields including agriculture, rule of law, and English language proficiency.

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CONTACT INFORMATION

This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the following pages.

For additional information, please see:

• Department of State, Section 2207 Report on Iraq Relief and Reconstructionhttp://2001-2009.state.gov/p/nea/rls/rpt/

• Department of State, Section 1227 Report on Iraqhttp://2001-2009.state.gov/p/nea/rls/rpt/

• Department of Defense, Section 9010 Measuring Stability and Security in Iraqhttp://www.defenselink.mil/home/features/Iraq_Reports/index.html

Please forward all questions and/or comments to:

[email protected]

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Slide 4:

Reuters, May 9, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6480XT20100509

Slides 5-8:

Department of State, NEA Political Section, [email protected]

Slide 9:

Reuters, May 10, http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSLDE649046._CH_.2400

New York Times, May 11, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/world/middleeast/11iraq.html?scp=2&sq=iraq&st=cse; AP, May 11, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hwK_CSpBxsNuVUEaDuOwmSSCiqGwD9FKL9HG2

Slide 10:

USF-I, May 5, http://www.usf-iraq.com/news/press-releases/suspected-aqi-leader-2-criminal-associates-arrested-in-mosul

AP, May 8, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/05/08/AR2010050801304.html

Slide 11:

Aswat al-Iraq, May 11, http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=131584, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gy5U3lSNzU0hHyekm8969ntP9XCQ

Slide 12:

Department of State, NEA/I Economics Section, [email protected]

NOTES AND SOURCE CITATIONS (1 of 2)

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Slide 13:

Bloomberg Business Week, May 6, 2010, http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9FHAT400.htm

Slide 14:

Department of State, NEA/I Economics Section, [email protected]

Slide 15:

Department of State, NEA/I Iraq Policy and Operations Group, [email protected]

Slide 16:

AP, May 11, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jCk0YR-1R8n6YVycSrKvOaJvHlSwD9FKMCCO1; Herald Sun, May 11, http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/emirates-airlines-to-launch-baghdad-flights/story-e6frf7jx-1225864821119

Slide 17:

Department of State, NEA/I Economics Section, [email protected] Slide 18:

Source for Stories: Embassy Baghdad Public Affairs Section, Highlights Report for the two-week period ending May 1, 2010

U.S. Embassy Baghdad, Provincial Reconstruction Teams, Public Health, May 3, 2010, http://iraq-prt.usembassy.gov/prt_dhiqar050310.html

Source for President Obama’s Quote: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-of-President-Barack-Obama-Responsibly-Ending-the-War-in-Iraq/

NOTES AND SOURCE CITATIONS (2 of 2)