Which Uncertainity or Error is the Most Critical in Geotechnical Design
Uncertainity and risks
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Uncertainity and risks
Prabhat kiran bhandari
Roll no:131 B
BIM 7th
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Overview of slide
O 1.probability theory
O 2.example
O 3. implication of probability theory in
decision making
O 4.decision making under uncertainity
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Probability theory
Features
outcome of a given trial cannot be
predicted with certainty
Concerned with random phenomena
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Example
O life expectancy for persons of a certain
age
O genetic disease occurring in a child of
parents having a known genetic makeup
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Implication of probability
theory in decision makingO Expected monetary value criterion or
expected value criterion
O Expected oppurtunity loss criterion
O Expected profit with perfect information
O Marginal analysis approach
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Expected monetary value
O Sum of product of pay-off values of each
strategy with assigned probabilities
EMV :payoff* probabilities
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Expected profit with perfect information[EPPI]
O Complete information about future regards
O Highest profit can be obtained by
overcoming uncertainities
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Marginal analysis approach
O Used when no. of alternatives are availiable
O It is made to avoid situation of creating pay off table and loss table
assumption:expected marginal
profit>=expected maginal loss
Where,expected marginal profit=probability of selling one additional unit*marginal profit
Expected marginal loss=probability of not selling one additional unit
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Decision making under uncertainity
O Cannot precisely estimate successs or failure of
product
O Outcome is unknown.
Maximax or minimaxcriterion
Maximin or minimaxcriterion
Equally likely decision criterion
Criterion or realism
Criterion or regret
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Workout example
Prduct
appearance
full Partial Minimal
Good 8 70 50
Fair 20 45 40
Poor -25 -10 0
Maximum 50 70 50
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Solution
A)Under maximax criterion the company
should follow partial product line as it has
maximum value of rs.70000.
b)Under maximum criterion company should
follow minimal product line as it has
maximum 0.
Equal likelihood:probality=1/3
Where,no.of states=3
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Solution of equal likelihood
Prob
abilit
y
Prod
uct
appe
aran
ce
Prod
uct
line
Full Parti
al
Mini
mal
1/3 Good 8 70 50
1/3 Fair 50 45 40
1/3 Poor -25 -10 0
EMV 11 35 30
O Under likelihood
criterion company
should follow partial
product line as it
has maximum
expexted value of
rs.35000
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Any question????????