UN Development Information Day

24th October2012

Poverty and ecology: developing a new evolutionary approach

Ke Zhang

John Dearing , Richard Treves (Southampton University); Xiangdong Yang, Xuhui Dong (NIGLAS, Nanjing); Weiguo Zhang (East China Normal University, Shanghai); Terry Dawson (Dundee University) Paul Sillitoe (Durham University)

Project objective

Developing an evolutionary framework to understand the long-term dynamics of coupled socio-ecology system

Beijing

Yangtze River

CHINA

Study region

Population (*1000) Area (km2) Farmer's income/capit ($)0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Huangmei County

Shucheng County

Wujiang County

Chongming County

Population (*1000) Area (km2) Farmer's income/capit ($)0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Huangmei County

Shucheng County

Wujiang County

Chongming County

Different Catchment areas size in the study region

Taibai Chaohu Taihu Lower Yangtze Basin

Are

a (k

m2 )

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000200000

220000

240000

607 km2

9,258 km2

36,500 km2

220,000 km2

Different Catchment areas size in the study region

Taibai Chaohu Taihu Lower Yangtze Basin

Are

a (k

m2 )

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000200000

220000

240000

607 km2

9,258 km2

36,500 km2

220,000 km2

(Dearing et al 2012, PNAS)

Regulating services

Provisioning services

Grain

Aquatic

Livestock

Timber

Water purification

Erosion regulation

Air quality regulation

Biodiversity

Sediment quality

Sediment regulation

Food

Diatom-inferred phosphorus

Magnetic susceptibility

lead concentration

pollen-inferred richness

Sediment phosphorus

Sediment accumulation rate

Timber

Demography

Economy

Govemance and policy

Climate

Population

GDP

Precipitation, temperature

Policy

Drivers

Tradeoffs

Year

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-2

-1

0

1

2

Regulating services indexProvisioning services index

Year

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-2

-1

0

1

2

Regulating services indexProvisioning services index

Year

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-2

-1

0

1

2

Regulating services indexProvisioning services index

Year

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-2

-1

0

1

2

Regulating services indexProvisioning services index

Year

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Regulating services indexProvisioning services index

Year

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Regulating services indexProvisioning services index

Year

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-2

-1

0

1

2

Regulating services index

Provisioning services index

Year

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-2

-1

0

1

2

Regulating services index

Provisioning services index

Provisioning services nornalised value

-1 0 1 2

Reg

ulat

ing

serv

ices

nor

mal

ised

va

lue

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

3 point moving average

Provisioning services nornalised value

-1 0 1 2

Reg

ulat

ing

serv

ices

nor

mal

ised

va

lue

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

3 point moving average

Provisioning services nornalised value

-1 0 1Reg

ulat

ing

serv

ices

nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3 point moving average

Provisioning services nornalised value

-1 0 1Reg

ulat

ing

serv

ices

nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3 point moving average

Provisioning services nornalised value

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0Reg

ulat

ing

serv

ices

nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.83 point moving average

Provisioning services nornalised value

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0Reg

ulat

ing

serv

ices

nor

mal

ised

val

ue

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.83 point moving average

Provisioning services nornalised value

-1 0 1 2-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

Reg

ulat

ing

serv

ices

nor

mal

ised

val

ue

3 point moving average

Provisioning services nornalised value

-1 0 1 2-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

Reg

ulat

ing

serv

ices

nor

mal

ised

val

ue

3 point moving average

ARIMA(2,1,1)

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Wat

er q

ualit

y

40

60

80

100

Reg

ime

Shi

ft I

ndex

0

1

2

3

4

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SD

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Res

idua

ls

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Tipping point and early warning signal

Rising variance gives early warning signal ~30 years before threshold

ARIMA(2,1,1)

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Wat

er q

ualit

y

40

60

80

100

ARIMA(2,1,3)

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Wat

er q

ualit

y

0

40

80

120

160

Taihu Lake

ARIMA(2,1,1)

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

wat

er q

ualit

y

40

80

120

160

200

ARIMA(1,2.1)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Wat

er q

ualit

y

0

40

80

120

160

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010S

D3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SD

1

2

3

4

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Wat

er Q

ualit

y (

mg/

l) 40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

40

80

120

160

Taibai Lake Chaohu Lake Taihu Lake Tidal Yangtze

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SD

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-2

0

2

4

Reg

ime

shift

inde

x

0

1

2

3GDPPopulationFertilizer usage

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SD

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Wat

er Q

ualit

y( m

ol/l)

A B

C D E

z-sc

ore

Critical transition of water quality in the whole region

Zhang et al., unpublished

Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation

Zhang et al., unpublished

Palaeoenvironmental sources of ‘regulating services’ provide new and important long term perspectives on ecological stability/degradation

The environment are approaching or already in the critical transition period since 1980s.

Tradeoffs patterns between provisioning services and regulating services in the last 100 years are clear unsustainable.

There is no sign of decoupling economic growth from the environmental degradation in east China

Conclusion

Thanks!