Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide Pack March 2017
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Transcript of Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide Pack March 2017
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
March 2017 Survey Update
Issued 11th April 2017
Richard RamseyChief Economist Northern Ireland
Twitter @UB_Economics
PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to 100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change (expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to more accurately identify the broad trends.
• Global output growth just shy of January’s 13-mth high• Growth accelerates in UK, EZ, Russia, Japan & India• Chinese composite PMI slows to a 6-month low (52.1)• Emerging Markets Composite PMI at a 31-month high• Eurozone composite PMI (56.4) hits a 6-yr high • French & German PMIs post strongest growth since May-11• Global input price inflation eases from recent 63-mth high• Developed Market manufacturing PMI just shy of recent 35-
mth high with Emerging Markets at a 32-mth highs• UK composite PMI (54.7) rebounds from 5-mth low due to
services while growth slows for manufacturing & construction• RoI business activity slows to a 4-mth low (57.0)• NI firms’ output growth accelerates to 53.9 but new orders
growth slows to a 5-mth low (53.2)
March 2017 PMIs – Key highlights
France & Germany report their fastest rates of growth since May-11 with growth rates slowing elsewhere
Developed Markets remains just below recent 35-month high with Emerging Markets hitting a 32-month high
2014 was the 1st year in 7 years that the 4 main indicators recorded expansion, repeated in 2015 & 2016 (& Q1 2017)
Output, orders (incl. exports) growth rates slow in Q1 relative to Q4 but pace of job creation quickens
NI firms report a marginal pick-up in output growth while the rate of growth eases for new orders & jobs
RoI firms’ orders growing at a robust rate while UK & NI firms signal divergence. NI orders growth at a 5-mth low
NI’s rate of employment growth exceeds the UK for 2nd
month in a row. Both NI & UK lag behind the RoI
Input cost inflation in Q1-17 hits its highest level since Q2-11. Output prices rise at their fastest rate since Q3-08
The East of England topped the regional growth table in March with Scotland & the North East at the bottom
The RoI reported the fastest growth rate in business activity over the last year with Scotland stagnating
Scotland & the North East (job losses) have reported the weakest rates of jobs growth over the last year
The UK’s growth rate remained relatively strong in Q4 at 0.7% q/q which was firmer than PMI suggested
NI firms within retail, services & construction all post faster rates of growth in Q1 but not manufacturers
NI’s manufacturing firms report slower rates of output & orders growth in Q1 but pace of job creation accelerates
RoI manufacturing output growth eases with Greece contracting and Italy surging towards a 6-year high
NI & UK manufacturing firms report similar rates of growth in employment but well below those of the RoI
The growth rate in NI’s services sector remains relatively subdued & well below its pre-downturn long-term average
Input cost inflation accelerates to a near 6-year high in Q1 with output prices inflation more subdued
NI retailers report elevated rates of input cost inflation while output price inflation hits a record high in Q1
Input cost inflation accelerating at a rapid rate with firms increasing prices at a much weaker rate
NI firms report their 2nd consecutive month of growth in March but still lags behind its UK & RoI counterparts
RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay
RoI construction firms still remain very optimistic about the year ahead and well above the long-term average
Slide 66
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This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.
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