ULSD Workshop November 20-21, 2002 Houston, TX Transition to 15 ppm ULSD.
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Transcript of ULSD Workshop November 20-21, 2002 Houston, TX Transition to 15 ppm ULSD.
ULSD Workshop
November 20-21, 2002
Houston, TX
Transition to 15 ppmTransition to 15 ppmULSD ULSD
2
Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
3
Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
4
Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
5
Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
6
Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
• Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998
7
After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989– Can produce blends below the maximum RVP to
facilitate turn over
8
After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992– Plenty of room between maximum oxygen limit and
minimum specification requirement
9
After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995– Very similar to RVP change over
10
After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
• Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998– Again, very similar to RVP change over
11
After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
• Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998
• Introduction of Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel – 1993– Some things are the same– Some things are different
12
After Further, Further ReviewAfter Further, Further Review
• Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel in 1993 will be the closest parallel for ULSD
13
Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
14
Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
15
Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
• Immediate demand for product
16
Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
• Immediate demand for product
• Choices to make
17
Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
• Immediate demand for product
• Choices to make
• Adjustments to operations
18
Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
• Immediate demand for product
• Choices to make
• Adjustments to operations
• Division of facilities or new construction
19
Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed
20
Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
21
Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…
22
Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term
23
Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term• Radical changes to operations
24
Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term• Radical changes to operations• Sulfur Credits
25
Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term• Radical changes to operations• Sulfur Credits• Small refinery exclusion
26
Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term• Radical changes to operations• Sulfur Credits• Small refinery exclusion• Degrees of magnitude 3000 – 500 vs 400 - 15
27
Physical Transition, Initial stagingPhysical Transition, Initial staging
• June 1 – July ?
28
Physical Transition, Initial stagingPhysical Transition, Initial staging
• June 1 – July ?
• Won’t be without problems
29
Physical Transition, Initial stagingPhysical Transition, Initial staging
• June 1 – July ?
• Won’t be without problems
• We have “outs” at this point
30
Physical Transition, Initial stagingPhysical Transition, Initial staging
• June 1 – July ?
• Won’t be without problems
• We have “outs” at this point– Downgrades
– Little or no demand
– Time
31
Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31
32
Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions
33
Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions• Who/how many will handle both products?
34
Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions• Who/how many will handle both products?• Price differential vs inventory
35
Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions• Who/how many will handle both products?• Price differential vs inventory• Use of Credits?
36
Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions• Who/how many will handle both products?• Price differential vs inventory• Use of Credits?• Out of the wood work/None to be had
37
September 1, 2006September 1, 2006
• A non-event
38
September 1, 2006September 1, 2006
• A non-event– No overnight change
39
September 1, 2006September 1, 2006
• A non-event– No overnight change– Production control, 80/20
40
September 1, 2006September 1, 2006
• A non-event– No overnight change– Production control, 80/20– No major distribution problems
ULSD Workshop
November 20-21, 2002
Houston, TX
Transition to 15 ppmTransition to 15 ppmULSD ULSD