Ukraine and Moldova’s Commitment to the European Reforms

8/11/2019 Ukraine and Moldovas Commitment to the European Reforms

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Ukraine and Moldovas

commitment to the Europeanreforms: a foreign policy analysis

approach

Bogdan Popescu

-National School of Political Studies and PublicAdministrationBucharest, Romania

-Eastern Partnership. Civilian Security Need-Assessment andDevelopment Opportunities/Options (PN-II-ID-PCE-2011-3-

1014)-


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Discursive Institutionalism

It has the ability to explain the change and continuity ofinstitutions but also apolicy stasis;

Explanation of change: endogenous process through backgroundideational abilitiesandforeground discursive abilities;

Background ideational abilitiesrefers to the agents internal capacity

to act in any meaning context and to create and maintaininstitutions ;

Foreground discursive abilitiesrefers to the abilities to reflect criticallyabout institutions and to think and speak outside institutions in

which they continue to act.

The discourse might fail or succeed due to several factors suchas: relevance of the issue at hand, appropriateness, but alsoconsistency and coherence across policy sectors.

Also, consistency may lead to rhetorical entrapment, committingspeakers to action.

(V. Schmidt, 2008 ; 2010; 2011 ; Hope 2011)


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Objectives

How does the European Union sees its Eastern

Neighborhood ?

How does Ukraine and Moldova sees the

European Union?

To what extent the Eastern Partnership (EaP)

has contributed to the development of a

common language between the EU and

Moldova and Ukraine?


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The European Union

Main Documents highlighting the EUs vision towardsits Eastern Neighborhood :

A Secure Europe in a better world (2003)

Wider EuropeNeighborhood: A New Framework forRelations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbors

(2003)

European Neighborhood Policy Strategy Paper (2004)

Joint Declaration of the Prague Eastern Partnership

Summit (2009)


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Conclusions:

Security oriented vision ;

The EU is surrounded both to the east (and to thesouth) by countries easily prone to internal or external

conflict; In order to tackle those security challenges the EU

decided to export its set of core norms (democracy, ruleof law, human rights, market economy) towards this

space and to attract them into a greater economicintegration project;

Positive conditionality and socialization;


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The Eastern Partnership

It was launched in 2009 at the Prague Summit;

It continues the same security oriented vision;

new Association Agreements including also aDeep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area

(DCFTA) among the EU and the EaP members;

it would also allow for an easier travel to the EUthrough the visa liberalization process;

Multilateral track;


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Ukraine

Law of Ukraine On the Foundations of

Domestic and Foreign Policy (2010) ;

The National Security Strategy of Ukraine-

Ukraine in the world that is changing

(2012)

Political speeches ;

Interviews ;


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Identity and foreign policy conduct

Important regional actor ;

The country has the role of a civilization bridge

between Europe and Asia ;

Both documents reflect a balanced foreign policy;

Ukraine is a non blockstate ;

European Integration is a strategic objective;

The creation of a new model of relations with theRussian Federation, but also with other major

international player ;


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Main threats to national security

External environment

increased competition for resources;

spread of terrorism, piracy, drug trafficking, illegal arms trade,transborder crime, etc.;

the deterioration of the security environment around Ukraine,including creation of the spheres of influence and zones ofresponsibility, escalation of the conflicts in the Black Sea-Caspianregion;

Unsettled Transnistrian conflict;

Unsettled issue of the state borders in the Black Sea and AzovSea, the absence of the border demarcations with Russia, Belarusand Moldova;

Problems due to the Russian Black Sea Fleet deployment inUkraine;


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Main threats to national security

Internal environment High level of corruption;

Problems of the judiciary system, as a result lack of confidencein it;

Dependence of the internal market on the external conditions,smuggling and monopoly;Low technological level of the economy;Inefficient use of the budget;Extra dependence on the energy resources import;Insufficient use of the energy transit potential of the state;

Decrease in population; shortening in labor and small wages;Irrational use of natural resources;Technological overload for the environment and pollution;


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The Eastern Partnership as a dialogue

platform between the EU and Ukraine

Compatibilities of interests:

European vector remains a foreign policy

priority ;

Ukraine sees the process of European

integration as a tool for systemic domestic

reforms and as a way of tackling several internal

vulnerabilities ;

EU seeks to stabilize its Eastern Neighborhood ;

Presently it negotiates an AA and a DCFTA

with the EU.


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Limited progress

Corruption perception remains very high ;

Ukraine is invited to implement several reforms in areassuch as the countrys electoral system, judiciary system,

it has to ensure that the constitutional reform processis carried out in an inclusive and transparent way, itshould refrain from introducing protectionist measuresin breach with its WTO commitments, and it shouldcomply with its obligations under the EnergyCommunity Treaty, as reflected in the Association

Agreement and the Association Agenda. (EU ProgressReport 2013).


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What is behind the pro European

political discourse?

The political nature of the EaP : the denial of the

integration perspective affects the EUs credibility and

the norm promotion has several limits ;

the decision makers from Kiev are more interested inthe preservation of the status quoin order to keep their

power, thus opposing political liberalization;

The Ukrainian business elite has a great impact on

foreign policy, and they try to direct the foreign policy

according to their economic interests ;


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Geographic structure of Ukraines exports


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Geographic structure of Ukraines exports

(source: Gnedina and Sleptsova 2012)


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Moldova

Foreign Policy Concept (2008) ;

National Security Strategy, 2008 (updated in

2011) ;

Alliance for European Integration Political

Program (2009) ;

Iurie Leanca Cabinets political program (2013) ; Interviews


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Foreign Policy conduct

Small state located in the area o interest of two

great powerssmall state paradox -;

Major Security threats: Transnistrian conflict ;

the presence of a foreign army on the national

territory ; the treat of foreign coercion;

Economic migration ; corruption and

management deficits within the state

administration


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Moldova and the European

Integration

In the 1990s Moldova opted for permanentneutrality to calm down both Russia andTransnistria ;

It is part of the EUs Eastern Policy from 2004,and from 2009 it is part of the EaP ;

The European integration is a strategic goal ;

The EU is seen as a stabilizing factor in the area; Presently it negotiates an AA and a DCFTA

with the EU.


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What is behind the political

discourse?

It addressed most of the key problems but still

has problems related to corruption and the

justice and law enforcement systems ;

in early 2013 a renewal of tensions within the

ruling coalition, which led to the downfall of the

Government, called political stabilisation into

question.


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Towards the Vilnius Autumn

Summit and beyond

Ukraine :According to the EUs official

communiqu the Association Agreement

between the parties will be signed, possibly at

the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, butonly if Ukraine creates the necessary political

circumstances.

Moldova:should draw lessons from its previouspolitical crisis


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Public opinions attitude towards the EU

in Ukraine (source: Razumkov Center)

Which foreign policy direction should be a priority for Ukraine?

(recurrent, 2002-2012) ?

EU countries 26,5% ; Russia 46,3% (May 2010) ;

EU countries 40,8% ; USA 1,2%, Russia 35,3 % ; (November2012) ;

Entry into the EU 42% ; entry into the Custom Union 31%

(May 1720 2013 )

the public opinion may push Ukraine towards theEuropean Union(interview)


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Moldova

It is a small state and has fewer options than

Ukraine ;

The logic of rhetorical entrapment: the cost of

changing the commitment for a discourse will be

too great .


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Thank You !

Ukraine and Moldova’s Commitment to the European Reforms

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