UK Property Market Review 2009
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Transcript of UK Property Market Review 2009
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UK Property Market Review 2009
Rob Howarth - JLLJames Welch – Cortex Partners
9th February 2010
Leisure
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Agenda
• Occupier Market 2009
• Investment Market 2009
• Discussion
• Drinks & Crisps
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Occupier Market - Health & Fitness
• The rise of the super budget gym
• Super flexible, technology led, simple, low price
• Expansion race
• Local Authority offers / competition
• JJB Health Clubs sold to Dave Whelan
• Mid market pressure
• Esporta outlook
Photo of two women enjoying a free weights keep-fit session
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Occupier Market - Health & Fitness
• The Gym
• Pure Gym
• NuYuu Fitness
• Fitspace
• Gym4All
• Fitness 4 Less
• MiFit
Photo of modern looking gym
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Ten Pin Bowling
1960s style photo of a women about to play ten-pin bowls
Photo of Woody Harrelson as bowler Roy Munson from the movie ‘Kingpin’ about to play ten-pin.
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Ten Pin Bowling
• AMF
• Ten Pin
• Bowlplex
• Namco Bandai
• Hollywood Bowl (M&B)
• Lakeside Superbowl
• American Amusements
• Bloomsbury
• All Star Lanes
• Strike Bowling Bars
Photo of Woody Harrelson as bowler Roy Munson from the movie ‘Kingpin’ about to play ten-pin.
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Ten Pin Bowling
• Trading conditions challenging, smoking ban, economy etc
• Limited openings – Namco MetroCentre, AMF Eastleigh
• Market continues to be flat in terms of rental growth
• Weather has impacted performance, limited cash to invest
• Remains a strong family activity and an important part of any leisure pitch or scheme
1960s style photo of a women about to play ten-pin bowls
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Cinema
Image of two blue characters from the movie Avatar
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Occupier Market - Cinema
• Record admissions in 2009
• Slum Dog, Up, Twilight, Potter, Avatar, Ice Age
• Gross Box Office Sales increase 11% on 08
• Screen Advertising Down
• Popcorn Up
• Digital, 3D and IMAX making an impact
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Occupier Market - Cinema
• National Amusements deal or no deal
• HMV Curzon Wimbledon
• Hoyts departs UK…finally
• Vue step into Westfield deal
• O2 Greenwich cinema being marketed
• New overseas players ?
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Photo of auditorium in an HMV Curzon cinema
Photo of high street entrance to an HMV Curzon cinema
Photo of lobby area in an HMV Curzon cinema
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Cinema - Operators
• Odeon ( 823 screens 22.5%)
• Cine UK ( 791 screens 21%)
• VUE ( 634 screens 17%)
• Showcase ( 274 screens 7.5%)
• Empire (145 screens 4%)
• City Screen ( 58 screens 1.5%)
• REEL ( 47 screens <1.5%)
• Apollo ( 79 screens 2%)
• Everyman ( 9 screens <0.5%)
• Independents ( 700+ screens 22.5%)
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Cinema
• Operators still want to expand, availability of funds and development slowdown issue
• Challenge of making deals work
• Rental growth remains static
• Supermarket / planning gain opportunities
• Still the footfall driver for any location
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Image from Odeon Metro Centre marketing montage photo
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Cinemas – 2009 Openings
Operator Location Screens/Seats Estimated Opening
Vue Eastleigh 9 / 1650 Feb-09
Newbury 7 / 1007 Dec-09
Cineworld Aberdeen
Witney
10 / 1900
5 / 900
Nov-09
Nov-09
Odeon Wrexham 8 / 1600 April-09
Gateshead (Metro) 12 / 2900 Dec-09
Reel York 3 / 1025 Jun-09
Curzon/HMV Wimbledon 3 / 263 Oct-09
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Cinemas – 2010 Openings
Operator Location Screens/Seats Estimated Opening
Apollo
Vue
Carmarthen
Westfield, London
5 / 1000
14 / 3000
2010
Feb-10
Bury 12 / 2000 July-10
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Cinema
• Cinema remains the leisure anchor
• Landlords / Developers want leading edge design, offer, events to differentiate
• Vibrancy, excitement, an experience to drag people out of home
• Sporting telecasts, Opera, 3D digital keeping offer relevant
• BIG blockbusters still driver
• Healthy operationally, challenge property side
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Restaurants
- Casual Dining operators weathered the economic storm- Upper end in London strong- Fast Food operators flourished- Independents suffering Image of Café Rouge advert or
poster showing an external shot of one of their café’s
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Restaurants
- There were failures however- Active operators; Nandos, Gondola, Tragus, TRG, Fast Food, Buffet Ops- Schemes offered incentives 2-3 years- Development slowdown impacted- Requirements for 2010 remain strong
Image of self service counter of an unidentified restaurant
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Licensed Trade
- The number of pubs closing its doors has fallen from 52 a week in the first half of 2009 to 39 in the latter half of the yearThe British Beer & Pub Association.
- 2,365 pubs closed in 2009- Total pubs today 52,500 compared to 58,600 in 2005 (10.4%)
- Pub beer sales were down 5.2% in 2009– an improvement on the 9.3 per cent slump in 2008 and 6.5 per cent fall in 2007.Mixed trading results
- Food led approach is profitable
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Photo of boarded-up pub with lots of different agency signs up
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Licensed Trade
- Corporate activity – Punch freehold sell off
- Requirements for High Street and Destination locations
- Offering good quality and varied food offers, off-setting the falling beer sales
- Operators need to be relevant, offer good value for money, or add value
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Casinos
• Trading conditions remain challenging for operators
• London however performed well
• Stabilised in the regions
• Operators disposing of properties / amalgamating clubs
• Fifty St James, Blue Chip Casinos, Isle of Capri
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Casino
• Circa 140 trading casinos in UK
• 16 new 2005 Act casino licences still not issued
• Only Newham have started their selection process
• Who will actively pursue the new licences?
• MK, Newham, Luton, Leeds, Southampton
• Genting Stanley
• Gala
• Grosvenor (Rank)
• London Clubs (Harrahs)
• A & S Leisure
• Aspinalls
• Independents
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Occupier Market - Bingo
• Is the worst over for Bingo?
• Smoking ban seriously affected the sector
• Attendances down but spend per head up
• Treasury to reduce bingo duty
• Growing unemployment figures will impact
• Virtually no activity from any operators
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Leisure Investment Market Review of 2009
James WelchCortex Partners