Uinta Mountains

Uinta Uinta MountainsMountains

Uinta BasinUinta BasinWasatchWasatch

MountainsMountains

WasatchWasatch

PlateauPlateau

Salt FlatsSalt Flats

Western Western DesertDesert

CanyonlandsCanyonlands

Grand Grand StaircaseStaircase

WasatchWasatch

MountainsMountains

ZionZion

Book CliffsBook Cliffs

Utah is a large state with much geographic diversity. Deserts abut lofty mountains that give way to deep canyons housing red-rock and eccentric natural formations. Utah offers a stunning array of geographic panorama and splendor.

Because its characteristics are viewed as a national treasure, much of the state’s landmass is owned by a government entity. National forests stretch from border to border. Zion, Bryce Canyon, Capitol Reef, Arches, and Canyonlands are its major national parks. Grand Staircase Escalante National Monument and Lake Powell Recreation Area also encompass large swaths of land. The Bureau of Land Management manages much land in the state’s western and eastern sections, and the military also owns west desert and salt flat lands as training facilities.

It is estimated that only 20% of Utah’s land is privately owned.

Navajo NationNavajo Nation

Great Salt Great Salt LakeLake

BryceBryce

Capitol Capitol ReefReef

ArchesArches

Lake PowellLake Powell

San Rafael San Rafael SwellSwell

An Economic Profile of Utah

Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2009U.S. Rate = 21.1%

Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country

< 10%Source: U.S Census Bureau

NM

UT

AZ

CA

NV

OR

TX

OK

CO

WA

ID

MT

WY

ND

SD

MN

NE

KS

IA

MO

AR

LA

WI

IL IN OH

FL

TN

KY

MS AL GA

SC

NC

VAWV

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MAVT

NH

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

MI

25% to <50%

10% to <25%

> 50%

Utah Population by County: 2009

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee

Box Elder49,421

Cache114,276

Rich2,329

Weber227,259

Tooele59,117

Salt Lake1,042,125

Morgan9,947

Summit40,451

Daggett 988

Utah531,442

Wasatch23,428 Duchesne

17,368Uintah31,291

Juab10,191

Sanpete27,646

Carbon19,768

Emery10,848 Grand

9,493

Millard13,702

Piute1,479

Garfield5,149

Sevier20,773

Wayne2,692

San Juan15,643

Iron46,825

Beaver6,576

Washington145,466

Kane6,740

Davis307,656

State = 2,800,089

20,000 to 99,999

< 19,999

> 500,000

100,000 to 499,999

Utah’s population is centered upon the five large counties in the north-central part of the state. This is referred to as the Wasatch Front, as the population mass largely parallels the Wasatch Mountains that run from north to south on the eastern portion of these counties. These counties host 79% of Utah’s population on only 6% of Utah’s land mass. Because of this, Utah is considered an urbanized state.

Only St. George in Washington County offers an urban mass off the Wasatch Front. It is one of the fastest growing counties in the United States, and has been for the past two decades, although slowed recently by the 2007-2009 recession. Projections are that rapid population growth will resume once the economy regains its footing.

See population projections:http://governor.utah.gov/dea/Projections/07ProjCountyandDistrict.pdf

http://governor.utah.gov/dea/Projections/07ProjCountyandDistrict.pdf

http://governor.utah.gov/dea/Projections/07ProjCountyandDistrict.pdf

Utah Population Growth Rates by County: 2008 to 2009


Box Elder1.5%

Cache2.2%

Rich2.2%

Weber1.2%

Tooele1.6%

Salt Lake1.1%

Morgan3.1%

Summit1.3%

Daggett 2.5%

Utah2.3%

Wasatch2.6% Duchesne

3.6%Uintah2.8%

Juab1.5%

Sanpete2.5%

Carbon-0.4%

Emery2.2% Grand

1.8%

Millard1.1%

Piute2.2%

Garfield2.1%

Sevier0.7%

Wayne2.1%

San Juan2.9%

Iron1.0%

Beaver0.8%

Washington0.5%

Kane1.2%

Davis1.9%

State Average = 1.5%

Increase of 1.0% to 2.6%

Change of less than 1.0%

Increase of 4.0% or greater

Increase of 2.7% to 3.9%

Population has been growing rapidly Population has been growing rapidly in the periphery counties surrounding in the periphery counties surrounding the Wasatch Front. As the population the Wasatch Front. As the population grows, more people are making the grows, more people are making the decision to live further from the decision to live further from the metropolitan mass and commute into metropolitan mass and commute into the area for work.the area for work.

However, the schematics of this map However, the schematics of this map for this year do not show that pattern. for this year do not show that pattern. That is the pattern of the past two That is the pattern of the past two decades, but is not the pattern for last decades, but is not the pattern for last year. The recession of 2007-2009 has year. The recession of 2007-2009 has slowed the amount of population slowed the amount of population expansion in Utah, and thus the expansion in Utah, and thus the patterns of the past decade are being patterns of the past decade are being paused (probably not shuttered) by paused (probably not shuttered) by this slowdown. this slowdown.

In the southwest corner, Washington In the southwest corner, Washington County was ranked as one of the County was ranked as one of the fastest growing counties in the nation. fastest growing counties in the nation. But the 2007-2009 recession put a But the 2007-2009 recession put a major crimp in the Washington major crimp in the Washington County economy, and an economy County economy, and an economy that was consistently one of the that was consistently one of the nation’s fastest growing just barely nation’s fastest growing just barely produced any population growth for produced any population growth for 2009.2009.

Utah’s Largest Cities: 2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Logan

Utah’s cities are concentrated along the Wasatch Front. You may notice that large expanses of Utah are thinly populated. Close to 80% of Utah’s land mass is owned by the government; mostly the federal government.

These lands include military bases and ranges, Bureau of Land Management domains, National Parks and Monuments, National Recreation areas, National Forests, and Indian Reservations.

Current population growth suggests that land and water availability may become issues several decades from now in Utah.

Ogden

Salt Lake CityWest Valley City

Sandy

Orem

Provo

Layton

West Jordan

Vernal

Tremonton

Brigham City

Heber City

Tooele

Spanish Fork

NephiPrice

EphraimDelta

MoabRichfield

Beaver

St. George

Cedar CityBlanding

Kanab

Park City

Lehi

Payson

Bountiful

Panguitch

Roosevelt

Monticello

Fillmore

State of Utah Components of Population Change

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

Per

son

s

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Change


Due to a high birth rate, Utah’s population continually grows, even during periods of out-migration. Within the last 15 years, in-migration is consistent and persistent, even during the early 2000 period of a rare Utah employment recession. In the past, slow economic periods had produced net out-migration. Hispanic in-migration has been the changing factor in the post-1990 period. However, the 2007-2009 recession has virtually halted net migration into the state.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Utah Population Percentages by Age Group2009

10-19 20-34 35-44 45-540-9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

55-64 65+

Utah has the nation’s youngest population, with a median age of 28.9. The national median is 36.8. To get a feel for how young Utah is and the contrast, the next closest state is Texas, with a median age of 33.1.

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale

Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005

FemaleMale

U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005

Millions

Baby Boom Generation

This population tree gives a visual of the difference between Utah’s age profile against the United States. The Baby Boom generation, denoted in red, dominates the national profile. Utah’s population, on the other hand, is dominated by 20 to 30 year olds. Utah produced a second baby boom in the 1980s. That generation is producing a third baby boom, whose beginning can be seen at the bottom of the Utah tree. As each Utah branch will move up one level by the 2010 Census, another significant branch should be added to Utah’s bottom, reflecting more children born between 2005 and 2010 by that 1980 baby boom generation. This chart will be seen again and used as an explanation for other Utah-specific economic phenomenon.

Utah State Employment Growth Rates1950 – 2010f

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1960 1970 1980 19901950

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: October 2010 f = forecast

2000

3.2% average since 1950

Utah has averaged 3.2% yearly employment growth since 1950. Only four other states have performed better. Strong population growth is the underlying key to Utah’s consistent employment growth. A rare employment recession occurred in 2002, with fewer jobs recorded than in 2001. One has to go back 38 years—to 1964—to find the last time Utah had fewer jobs in a succeeding year. The credit crunch of 2007-2009 has hit Utah even harder, with the most employment losses in the post-WWII era. Employment is expected to slowly rebound in 2010, but not enough to overcome a second straight year of employment loss.

2010

Utah Employment (seasonally adjusted)

1,020

1,070

1,120

1,170

1,220

1,270

00 01 02 03

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; September 2010

04 05 06 07

Employment losses for the 2001-2003 downturn, and the current downturn can be seen on this chart. The employment losses for the current downturn are much deeper than during the dot com downturn.

Employment

09 1008

Utah Employment1939 - 2010

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; September 2010

40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10

Utah Employment1950 – 2011f

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; September 2010 f = Utah Department of Workforce Services forecast.

50 60 70 80 90 00 10

Average per year: 3.2%

The worst Utah economic downturn in the post-WWII era.

2.0%

3.0%

4.1%

5.1%

6.2%

7.2%

8.3%

9.3%

10.4%

11.4%

1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

UtahUS

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

1999 - 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: September 2010

-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%

1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

UtahUS

Year-Over Percent Change

In Non-farm JobsUtah enjoyed a large employment boom coming out of the early 2000s dot.com recession. Demographics fueled this growth, as a huge wave of native born Utahns of the 1980s became of labor force age throughout this decade. Their entrance into the labor force propelled Utah’s economic boom, allowing Utah’s economy to grow nearly three times higher than the national rate.

But the strong recession of 2007–2009 derailed the Utah economy, and what once soared higher than the national average fell below the national average in percentage job losses. It is anticipated that this lower-than-the-national-average position for Utah will be only temporary. As the economy stabilizes, Utah’s unique demographic factors should re-emerge to give Utah its normal economic boost.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2010

-24%

-22%

-20%

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Utah Percentage Change in EmploymentOverall – Housing-Related

Overall

Housing-Related

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

10

The boom in housing and the related industries that feed off housing growth and wealth were a significant part of the overall economic boom of the mid 2000s. The subsequent crash in housing related activity is quite rapid and sharp, and is a major contributor to the overall job loss picture in Utah.

Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers

Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


FemaleMale


Millions

Dominating the Labor Force

Worker Vacuum

Worker Vacuum

We’re back to this chart again. You can see the large number of 20 to 30 year olds in Utah. They made their labor force entrance throughout the 2000s first decade, and are the prime reason why Utah’s economy boomed in the mid 2000s.

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%J obs

Population

Utah Employment And Population Percentage Change2000 - 2009

01 02 03 0400

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services, Utah Population Estimates Committee

05 06 07

This chart also shows that the internal labor force was not the only factor at work. Utah’s population was also growing throughout the decade while job growth was basically non-existent from 2001 through 2003.

The rebound out of that recession was strong because the economic supply is trying to catch up with the amount of population growth and its resultant consumer demand. Is that process repeating itself on possibly an even greater scale in the current recession? Population is still expanding, but yet notice the amount of job loss. That imbalance can exist for a short period, but at some point the economy will have to expand to put the population-jobs mix back in balance.

08 09

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Utah Residential Dwelling Unit Approvals1995 – 2010

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; September 2010.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

Trendline

Dwelling Units

Utah had a housing boom that started in 2003. This not only corresponded with the large number of new household formations in the state, but also the low mortgage and loose credit activity that characterized that time frame. Home permitting rose to an historic high in 2006. The collapse came in 2007 when the national credit crisis shut down lending and raised interest rates. A housing price run up from 2005 to 2007 added to the problem, as now high house prices and higher mortgage rates equated to non-affordability in Utah’s housing market. The situation will not be rectified until Utah house prices decline to a level akin to where they were before all this euphoria.

http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

$1,000

$51,000

$101,000

$151,000

$201,000

$251,000

$301,000

$351,000

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Utah Nonresidential Construction Valuation1994 – 2010

(thousands of $)

Micron

LDS Conference Center IHC HospitalGrand America Hotel

Trendline

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; September 2010.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

Nonresidential building trends usually lag residential trends by about two years. That shows forth here. Whereas Utah’s residential spike got underway in 2003, we see here the nonresidential climb beginning in 2005.

The high point was reached in 2008, roughly two years after the residential spike. Even with the presence of the large NSA computer center proposed for southern Salt Lake county beginning in late 2010, nonresidential construction is expected to be lethargic in Utah for the next several years.

City Creek

http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

Utah Housing Price Appreciation

Across Selected Metropolitan Areas

2002 - 2007

Salt Lake City 58%

Provo-Orem 51%

Ogden-Clearfield 41%

Logan 33%

St. George 73%

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

22%

21%

18%

16%

26%

Wage Appreciation


The environment is not going to change until housing affordability comes back into balance. Like much of the rest of the nation, Utah’s housing prices appreciated excessively over a five-year span, largely because a huge (and in hindsight questionable) decline in mortgage rates allowed home prices to rise steeply without compromising affordability. Once the mortgage rates returned to more historic levels, they now coupled with the new housing prices to suddenly equate to non-affordability. Since interest rates are not expected to go back down to their recent lows, the only thing that has to give in order to return to affordability is housing prices. They need to come down, possibly by as much as 20%. The only other option is for the housing market to sit dormant for 10 years waiting for wage appreciation to lift affordability. That is not likely to happen.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Utah Employment By Age2009

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-6415-24

Source: U. S. Census Bureau, LED data.

65+

Utah’s labor force is populated with young workers.

Percent of the Labor Force

Age Groups

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Utah Texas Georgia California Alaska Colorado U.S. Avg.

15-34 Year-Old Percentage of Total 15+ Population

Source: Census Bureau, 2000 Census

Utah has a young population, and that effect is evident in the labor force. 48% of Utah’s labor force is younger than 35 years of age. No other state breaks 40%. Utah stands alone in this profile. Its young labor force is in stark contrast to the national labor force, which is Baby Boomer dominated.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Utah Employment By Age2000, 2009

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-6415-24


65+


Age Groups

2000

2009

Utah was even younger at the beginning of this decade. This is a comparison of Utah’s labor force breakdown in 2000, then again in 2009. In 2000, the 15-24 year group had the most workers. Nine years later, aging has now shifted it to the 25-34 year group. Yet the youngest age group is still a prevalent proportion of the labor force.

Five and ten years from now, Utah’s labor force will be even older, and the volume may shift further right. But after that, another young wave will come on (being born during the past ten years), and the average labor force age will decline once again.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0% Urban

Non-Urban

Utah Employment By Age: Urban and Non-Urban2009

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-6415-24


65+

Though Utah is young, it is younger in the urban counties than in its non-urban counties.


Age GroupsUrban counties included Cache, Davis, Iron, Salt LakeSummit, Tooele, Utah, Wasatch, Washington, and Weber.

Utah Employment by Age Group: 2009

21,069

69,510

114,918129,847106,963

173,721

15,412

61,865

101,29798,776

130,671

116,239

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Male Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; LED data.

Note: Does not include federal government employment and other employment not covered by unemployment insurance regulations.

11.5% of total

We’ve just seen that Utah is young. Much has been made nationally about the impending retirement of the Baby Boom generation and the loss of mass quantities of labor and knowledge. But Utah does not show much vulnerability to the Baby Boom retirement. The initial portion of that cohort only accounts for 11.5% of Utah’s labor force. That percentage should easily be dealt with and replaced within the Utah economy.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Elec. PowerGeneration

Urban Transit J uniorColleges

K-12 Schools Aero. Mfg. Universities Govt. Admin. Com. Equip.Manufacturing

Industry’s With Higher Concentration of Older Workers55-64 as a % of Total Employment in that Industry; 2009

Source: Census Bureau, LED data. Used only industries with an employment threshold of 2,000 or more total workers.

Percent

Although the Utah economy as a whole is not vulnerable to mass labor loss with Baby Boomer retirements, the industries illustrated here do have some degree of exposure with this age group as an influential proportion of their labor makeup.

Utah Female Employment: 2009Top 6 Industries

40,621

36,369

27,44926,276

25,499

18,892

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; LED data. NAICS = North American Industry Classification System

Note: Does not include federal government employment and other employment not covered by unemployment insurance laws.

Food ServicesNAICS 722

AdministrativeSupport

NAICS 561

AmbulatoryHealthcareNAICS 621

ProfessionalScientificTechnicalNAICS 541

HospitalsNAICS 622

BanksCredit

MortgagesNAICS 522

Over time, females have claimed more of a presence in the labor force. This is both a national and a Utah phenomenon. Utah’s female labor participation rate is several percentage points higher than the national average.

This graph illustrates the industries that employ the most female workers.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08

Utah Unemployment Rate1973 – 2010

Percent

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: September 2009

Utah’s unemployment rate hit an historic low of 2.3% in Feb. 2007. This makes for a fully-employed labor force, resulting in strong upward pressure on wages. Since then, the Utah economy has weakened, and unemployment has moved higher, reaching levels in late 2010 not seen since the 1980s.

Although the employment losses will turn out to be much worse in the 2007-2009 recession than in the early 1980s, unemployment will not rise as high. Why? Back in the early 1980s there was an incredible wave of Baby Boomers trying to find entrance into the labor force in the face of a slow economy. In the current environment, even though the job losses are higher, there are still not as many idle and unabsorbed workers as was seen nationally back in the early 1980s.

Utah and the United States Nonagricultural Employment by Industry: 2009

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Utah Department of Workforce Services

U.S.

Other Services4.1%

Government17.2%

Financial Activity

5.9%Prof. & Bus. Serv.12.7%

Ed. & Health Serv.14.7%

Information2.1%

Leisure & Hospitality

10.0%

Natural Resources &

Mining0.5%

Construction4.6%

Manufacturing9.1%

Trade, Trans. Utilities19.1%

Utah

Construction5.9%

Manufacturing9.5%

Trade, Trans., Utilities19.6%

Other Services2.9%

Government18.1%

Information2.5%

Leisure & Hospitality

9.2%

Ed. & Health Serv.12.7% Financial Activity

6.0%Prof. & Bus.

Serv.12.6%

Natural Resources &

Mining1.3%

Utah’s industrial mix is very much like the national distribution. Therefore, one concludes that Utah has a diverse economy. Some of the modest but noticeable differences are found in construction, manufacturing, education and health services, and government. One might expect Utah’s leisure and hospitality (a proxy for tourism) employment to be higher, as Utah is often thought of as a tourism state with its ski resorts and national parks, but that industry’s employment is actually below the national average.

Leisure & Hospitality Employment by County: 2009As a Percent of Total County Employment


Box Elder7.7%

Cache7.5%

Rich23.4%

Weber9.0%

Tooele8.2%

Salt Lake8.2%

Morgan9.4%

Summit36.0%

Daggett 30.1%

Utah7.6%

Wasatch20.6% Duchesne

5.3%Uintah7.4%

Juab8.9%

Sanpete6.5%

Carbon8.3%

Emery7.2% Grand

34.2%

Millard8.8%

Piute15.9%

Garfield37.0%

Sevier11.0%

Wayne20.2%

San Juan15.1%

Iron11.9%

Beaver15.4%

Washington14.2%

Kane29.1%

Davis9.5%

Less than 12%

Greater than 12% The leisure and hospitality industry is generally tagged as a proxy for the tourism industry. It includes hotels and restaurants, along with arts, entertainment, and recreation facilities.

At 9.2% of all employment, this industry is important in Utah, but with the national average being 10.0%, it is no more important to the Utah economy than it is to any other state’s economy.

That changes however, when you talk about individual counties. In Utah, there are counties whose economies are extremely dependent upon the tourism industry. They are presented as counties highlighted in red. In some cases, skiing is the attraction. In many southern counties, it is national parks that provide the main draw. In a few small counties, it is just a busy highway that brings travelers through along with their incidental purchases.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0% Establishments

Employment, March 09

Utah Employment By Establishment Size2009

5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99Fewerthan 5


100+

A small number of employers employ a huge proportion of Utah’s workers.

Nearly 60% of all Utah establishments employ fewer than five workers. They employ only 6% of the labor force.

At the other end of the spectrum, only 2% of Utah’s employers employ more than 100 workers, but those that do employ 43% of all Utah workers. Large firms dominate Utah’s employment environment.

Percent

Employment-size Class

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Construction Employment Percent Change1990 – 2009

Percent

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; September 2008

90 95 00 05

Construction employment growth can be very erratic in Utah, as this chart shows. Expansions can rapidly turn into contractions. The current downturn was both swift and deep (the bottom has not been reached yet).

10

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Top Utah Manufacturing Employment Industries2009

Misc.*


* Largest areas are medical equipment and sporting goods

Employment

Transportation Equip.

Food Fabricated Metal

Products

Computer & Electronic Products

Chemicals

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

66,000

68,000

70,000

Utah High Technology Employment

January 2001 – March 2010

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

High Technology definition formulated by the Utah Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors.

01 02 03 04 05 06 07

High Technology is one of those hybrid industries which doesn’t have its own industrial (NAICS) code, but instead is a combination of subjectively-chosen NAICS codes.

Utah’s technology sector suffered just like it did in all other states during the dot.com bust of the early 2000s. The technology sector has made a rebound since then, surpassing the previous employment high of 2001.

Yet, the 2007-2009 recession subjected it to another employment setback.

Employment

08 09 10

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Top Utah High-Technology Employment Industries2009

Computer Systems Design


Employment

Aerospace Engineering Services

Medical Equipment

Mfg.

Electronic Instrument

Mfg.

Software

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

Life Sciences Employment



Life Sciences is an economic cluster as identified by the Governor’s Office of Economic Development.

01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Life Sciences is another one of those hybrid industries which doesn’t have its own NAICS code, but instead is a combination of subjectively-chosen NAICS codes. There is some overlap here with the high technology definition.

The Life Sciences industry in Utah has been a consistently growing industry, even growing during the recession period of 2001 – 2003.

Life Sciences makes up just over 2% of all Utah employment.

Employment

08 09 10

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

41,000

43,000

45,000

Information Technology Employment



Information Technology is an economic cluster as identified by the Governor’s Office of Economic Development.

01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Information Technology is another one of those hybrid industries which doesn’t have its own NAICS code, but instead is a combination of subjectively-chosen NAICS codes. There is some overlap with the high technology definition.

The Information Technology industry in Utah has had its ups and downs, declining during the recession period of 2001 – 2003, then coming close to re-attaining the employment level of 2001 by late 2008. The 2007-2009 recession has given it another setback.

Information Technology makes up about 3.5% of all Utah employment.

Employment

08 09 10

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

Energy/Natural Resources Employment



Energy/Natural Resources is an economic cluster as identified by the Governor’s Office of Economic Development.

01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Energy/Natural Resources is another one of those hybrid industries.

Energy development can be a volatile industry, susceptible to strong market fluctuations. The energy industry enjoyed a boom from 2005 through the end of 2008. Then prices dropped dramatically at the start of 2009, as did employment.

Energy/Natural Resources makes up less than 2% of all Utah employment.

Employment

08 09 10

Utah Employment by County: 2009


Box Elder18,352

Cache49,032

Rich708

Weber91,003

Tooele15,445

Salt Lake573,449

Morgan1,832

Summit20,774

Daggett 408

Utah175,387

Wasatch5,888 Duchesne

7,770Uintah13,321

Juab3,282

Sanpete7,202

Carbon9,575

Emery3,694 Grand

4,516

Millard3,873

Piute314

Garfield2,256

Sevier7,813

Wayne1,053

San Juan4,118

Iron15,645

Beaver2,178

Washington46,994

Kane2,996

Davis99,911

State = 1,188,788

20,000 to 99,999

Less than 20,000

Greater than 200,000

100,000 to 199,999

Like its population, Utah’s employment is concentrated. Salt Lake County alone has 48% of all the jobs in Utah. Salt Lake County has more jobs than it does workers in the labor force. Large amounts of commuting from surrounding counties makes this possible.

If Utah, Davis, Weber, and Cache counties are combined with Salt Lake County, this corridor accounts for 83% of all employment.

Washington County, in the southwest corner, is the only other large metropolitan area not in proximity to the northern Utah metropolitan conglomeration.

Utah Employment Change by County: 2007 - 2009


Box Elder-9.7%

Cache-1.8%

Rich-6.0%

Weber-5.3%

Tooele-0.4%

Salt Lake-4.6%

Morgan-7.8%

Summit-5.1%

Daggett -16.2%

Utah-5.7%

Wasatch-17.1% Duchesne

5.3%Uintah-6.6%

Juab-10.4%

Sanpete-4.2%

Carbon3.5%

Emery-5.4% Grand

-3.1%

Millard-2.9%

Piute-11.8%

Garfield-3.6%

Sevier-3.0%

Wayne-2.0%

San Juan-3.0%

Iron-7.9%

Beaver6.1%

Washington-12.2%

Kane-6.1%

Davis-3.5%

State Average = -5.0%

-9.9% to -5.0%

-10.0% and less

0% and above

-4.9% to 0%The 2007-2009 recession took its toll upon Utah employment. The state lost 5% of its jobs across that two year period. Some counties were hit harder than others.

One of the hardest hit was Washington County. There was a common theme across the United States in this recession. The areas that had the biggest housing bubbles were the areas that crashed the hardest. The St. George area (Washington County) was Utah’s area with the largest housing bubble.

Although the entire state had a housing bubble larger than the national average, Washington County was Utah’s poster child. Its housing market performed more like the Las Vegas market. Meaning the bubble was larger, it burst a year before the rest of the state did, and the employment contraction was worse than was generally seen across the rest of the state.

Utah Payroll Wages by Major Industry Group2009

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services

Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Education and Health

Government

Prof., and Business

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Payroll wages are the primary source of income in Utah. Presented are the total payrolls generated by each industry sector.

Total Payrolls in Thousands of $

$821.8

$2,882.1

$5,366.5

$8,094.3

$1,415.6

$3,386.8

$6,880.0

$5,280.7

$1,718.1

$943.7

$8,565.2

Utah Employment and Wages As a Percent of Totalby Major Industry Group

2009


Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing


Information



Government

Prof., and Business


Other Services

There can be a contrast between how much an industry contributes to total employment, and how much to total wages. For example, the leisure and hospitality industry accounts for 9.2% of all employment, but only 3.8% of payrolls. That industry is characterized with both low wages and high part-time employment.

Percent of Total

1.2%1.8%

5.9%6.4%

9.5%11.9%

19.6%17.9%

2.5%

3.1%

6.0%7.5%

12.6%15.2%

12.7%11.7%

9.2%3.8%

2.9%2.1%

18.1%18.9%

Employment Payroll Wages

Industries like manufacturing, financial activities, and professional and business services—because of high wages—contribute a higher percentage to total payrolls than they do to total employment.

Utah Average Monthly Wage by Major Industry Group2009


Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing


Information



Government

Prof., and Business


Other Services

Pay varies across industries, and that pay is largely dictated by the nature of the industry and what it demands from the labor force. For example, the leisure and hospitality industry doesn’t ask much in skill requirements from the labor force, and in turn doesn’t have to pay high prices for labor. Generally, the more an industry asks in specific skills, the more it must pay.

$4,532

$3,407

$3,962

$2,884

$3,991

$3,971

$3,835

$2,917

$1,292

$2,311

$3,325

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Utah Average Annual Pay

as a Percent of the U.S. Average

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

This illustrates Utah’s average annual pay—as measured through payrolls—compared against the United States average. As you can see, the Utah percentage has deteriorated over time. At first glance, one probably concludes that Utah’s wages have gotten worse.

Some have speculated that it is the loss of high-paying natural resource jobs over time. Others just conclude that Utah has low paying jobs.

The loss of high-paying natural resource-based jobs probably explains the deterioration between the early 1980s to the late 1990s. Thereafter, the decline is a demographic difference. The next slides will explain the demographic difference.

100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

FemaleMale


15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


Millions

Baby Boom Generation

This is Utah and the United States in 1980. Notice how both area’s labor force is dominated by Baby Boomers. The U.S. average wage was influenced by young, lower-paid workers just finding their way into the labor force. Same situation with Utah. No wonder the Utah and U.S. averages were very close at the beginning of the previous slide.

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


FemaleMale


Millions

Dominating the Labor Force

But now look what we have in the present. The U.S. is still dominated by the Baby Boom generation, but they have aged. Through tenure and advancement, they have risen into their highest-earning years. But notice Utah. It’s Baby Boom produced another baby boom, which is just at the beginning of its labor force journey. Utah’s labor force is dominated by young, lower-paid workers, while the U.S. is dominated by older, higher-paid workers. Take a room full of 30 year olds (a proxy for Utah) and a room full of 50 year olds (a proxy for the U.S.) and calculate the average wage for each. You will find the 50 year old room makes more money because of tenure and experience. This is a major reason why Utah’s average wages are low compared to the rest of the nation; it’s because we are so young. We see this youth as a positive for Utah, not a negative, especially as companies search for young labor with the impending retirement of the Baby Boomers nationwide.

1990 to 2000 Population Growth by County

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.1%5%

10%12%13%14%14%14%14%15%

17%17%

19%22%

24%24%

26%27%28%29%30%30%

34%40%40%

42%51%

53%63%

86%92%

CarbonEmeryMillard

PiuteU.S.

DuchesneUintah

RichSan Juan

WayneKane

Box ElderGarfield

SevierSalt Lake

WeberBeaver

DavisGrand

MorganState Total

CacheDaggett

UtahSanpete

JuabWasatch

TooeleIron

WashingtonSummit

2000 to 2009 Population Growth by County60%

52%

43%42%

39%

37%

35%

28%25%

24%

24%

23%

21%21%

19%

15%

15%

15%12%

11%

10%

10%

9%9%

8%

7%

6%

3%1%

-3%

Washington

Wasatch

Utah Tooele

Morgan

Iron

Summit

Davis State of Utah

Cache

Uintah

Juab

Sanpete Duchesne

Rich

Salt Lake

Box Elder

Weber Kane

Grand

Millard

Sevier

Beaver San Juan

Garfield

Wayne

Daggett

Piute Emery

Carbon

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee; Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.

2008 to 2009 Population Growth by County3.6%

3.1%

2.9%2.8%

2.6%

2.5%

2.5%

2.3%2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

2.1%2.1%

1.9%

1.8%

1.6%

1.5%1.5%

1.5%

1.3%

1.2%

1.2%1.1%

1.1%

1.0%

0.8%

0.7%0.5%

-0.4%

Duchesne

Morgan

San Juan Uintah

Wasatch

Sanpete

Daggett

Utah Emery

Rich

Piute

Cache

Wayne Garfield

Davis

Grand

Tooele

State of UtahJuab

Box Elder

Summit

Weber

Kane Salt Lake

Millard

Iron

Beaver

Sevier Washington

Carbon

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee; Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.

-11.3%

-10.3%

-10.1%

-8.7%

-7.8%

-7.0%

-6.9%

-6.1%

-6.0%

-5.5%

-5.1%

-5.1%

-5.1%

-4.9%

-4.7%

-4.3%

-4.0%

-4.0%

-3.4%

-3.3%

-3.3%

-3.1%

-2.9%

-2.6%

-2.3%

-1.7%

-1.1%

-0.4%

3.6%

-8.5%

-12.8% Uintah Piute

Wasatch Box Elder

Washington Summit

Duchesne Garfield

Rich Iron

Sanpete Kane

Weber Utah

State Total Salt Lake

DaggettUnited States

Wayne Sevier Grand Davis

Cache Millard

Morgan San Juan

Emery Juab

Carbon Tooele Beaver

Annual 2009 Change in Nonfarm Jobs

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Annual 2009 Unemployment Rates

4.7%4.9%

5.1%5.3%

5.5%

5.9%

5.9%6.2%6.3%

6.4%6.5%

6.6%6.9%

7.1%

7.2%7.2%

7.3%7.4%7.5%

7.6%7.6%

7.6%7.6%

7.9%

8.8%8.9%9.0%

9.3%9.5%

10.8%

5.8%

Rich

Cache

Millard

Daggett

Beaver

Morgan

Davis

Piute

Utah

Salt Lake

Summit

Emery

State Total

Kane

Carbon

Sevier

Tooele

Box Elder

Wayne

Uintah

Duchesne

Sanpete

Wasatch

Weber

Iron

Washington

Grand

Juab

United States

Garfield

San Juan

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Svcs; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2009 Utah Industry Employment Share by Gender

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Public AdministrationOther Services

Leisure/HospitalityEd/Health/Social Svcs

Prof/Business SvcsFinancial Activities

Information

Transportation/WarehousingRetail Trade

Wholesale TradeUtilities

ManufacturingConstruction

MiningTotal

Male FemaleSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics.

2009 Utah Employment Share by Age

35-4419%

45-5417%

55-6411%

65-994%

14-187% 19-21

9%22-249%

25-3424%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics.

2009 Share of Employment Over 5531%

24%

24%22%

21%

20%

19%

19%19%

19%

18%

18%

18%17%

16%

16%

16%

16%16%

16%

16%

16%

15%15%

15%

15%

14%

14%13%

13%

Daggett

Kane

Piute

Garfield

Emery

Morgan

San Juan

Rich

Sanpete

Wayne

Juab

Grand

Carbon

Box Elder

Tooele

Duchesne

Washington

Iron

Beaver

Millard

Sevier

State of Utah

Salt Lake

Wasatch

Uintah

Weber

Davis

Summit

Cache

Utah

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics.

Largest Utah Employers 2009 Annual Average

• Company Type of Industry

• Intermountain Healthcare Healthcare• State of Utah State Government• Wal-Mart Department Stores• Brigham Young University Higher Education• University of Utah (inc. Hospital) Higher Education

• Hill AFB Federal Government• Granite School District Public Education• Davis County School District Public Education• Jordan School District Public Education• Kroger Group Cooperative Retail Stores

• Utah State University Higher Education• Alpine School District Public Education• Salt Lake County Local Government• U.S. Department of Treasury Federal Government• U.S. Postal Service Federal Government

• ATK Launch Systems Aerospace Equip. Mfg.• Zions First National Bank Banking• Weber County School District Public Education• Wells Fargo Banking• Salt Lake City School District Public Education

2009 Average Monthly Wage by County

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.$2,013$2,056$2,089$2,122$2,172

$2,257$2,280

$2,403$2,446$2,449$2,452$2,511$2,545

$2,622$2,682$2,709$2,712

$2,843$2,844$2,860

$3,060$3,065

$3,171$3,292

$3,377$3,437$3,416

$3,550$3,602

$2,178

Rich Piute

Sanpete Garfield Wayne

Kane Iron

Grand Cache Sevier

Washington DaggettSan Juan

Wasatch Beaver

Juab Morgan Summit Weber

Utah Millard

Carbon Davis

State Total Tooele

Duchesne Box Elder

Uintah Salt Lake

Emery

2008 Per Capita Personal Income by County

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

$63,832

$40,166

$38,156

$38,026

$33,428

$33,283

$33,272

$32,244

$32,102

$32,050

$30,848

$30,224

$29,060

$29,019

$28,796

$28,449

$27,770

$25,955

$25,886

$25,731

$25,579

$25,452

$25,383

$25,345

$24,669

$24,380

$23,825

$23,803

$23,147

$21,162

$18,705

Summit

United States

Duchesne

Salt Lake

Carbon

Davis

Uintah

Weber

Kane

State Total

Morgan

Rich

Wasatch

Grand

Millard

Box Elder

Garfield

Cache

Washington

Tooele

Wayne

Sevier

Beaver

Emery

Piute

Juab

Daggett

Utah

Iron

Sanpete

San Juan

Uinta Mountains

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