UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December … percent in Kabale, Masindi, and Mbale and 9 percent...
Transcript of UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December … percent in Kabale, Masindi, and Mbale and 9 percent...
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UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December 2016
Staple food prices atypically increasing alongside prospects of below-average harvest
KEYMESSAGES
• Following below-average 2016 production, some poor households inKaramoja have depleted household food stocks in December, threemonthsearlierthannormal.Manyareatypicallydependentonmarketsandabove-averagepricesareloweringfoodaccess.InNapak,Kaabong,andMoroto,poorhouseholdsareexpectedtobeinCrisis(IPCPhase3)inAprilandMay,thepeakoftheleanseason.
• October to December second season rainfall was below average anderraticinmanybimodalareasandDecemberharvestsareexpectedtobebelowaverage.Thiswillbethesecondconsecutiveseasonofpoorerthan normal harvests in many bimodal areas. Due primarily to poorproductionprospects, staple foodprices atypically increasedbetweenOctober and November. Food availability and access are lower thannormalandsomepoorhouseholdsareStressed(IPCPhase2).
• According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR),over350,000SouthSudanesehavefledtoUgandasinceJuly2016.Newly arrived refugees are heavily dependent on humanitarianassistance and are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). UNHCR’s fundingappeal for South Sudanese refugees is only 65 percent funded. Iffunding gaps limit humanitarian assistance to refugees, it is expectedmanywillbeinCrisis(IPCPhase3)betweenFebruaryandMay2017.
CURRENTSITUATIONInmanybimodalareas,OctobertoDecembersecondseasonrainfallwasbelowaverageanderraticallydistributed.ThemostsignificantrainfalldeficitswerearoundtheLakeVictoriabasin,whererainfallwas20-30percentbelowaverage(Figure1).RainfallwasalsobelowaverageinthenorthwestandcropdamagefrommoisturestresswasobservedinthisregionduringaFEWSNETrapidfoodsecurityassessmentinNovember.SecondseasonproductionisexpectedtobebelowaverageinKumi,Serere,Ngora,Katakwi,andAmuriaofTeso,Lamwo,Kitgum,Pader,andAgagoofAcholi,IgangaandBugiriofBusoga,Kalungu,Gomba,andMasakaofGreaterMasaka,Rakai,Isingiro,Rwengo,andNakasongolainthecattlecorridor,andArua,Koboko,Yumbe,andAdjumaniinthenorthwest.
PoorerthannormalpastureconditionswerealsoobservedinthecattlecorridorinlateNovember,asaresultofbelow-averagerainfall.RainfallinDecemberisimprovingwaterandbrowseresourcesslightly,buthigherthannormallandsurfacetemperaturesarealsocontributingtothedeteriorationofpastureandwater.Livestockbodyconditionsareslightlybelownormalduetoincreasedmigrationinsearchofadequatepasture.
StaplefoodpricesatypicallyincreasedinmostmarketsbetweenOctoberandNovember.Theretailpriceofmaizeincreased11percentinKabale,Masindi,andMbaleand9percentinMasaka,Iganga,andTororo.Usuallyduringthistimefoodprices
Projected food security outcomes, December 2016 to January 2017
Source: FEWS NET
Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2017
Source: FEWS NET
This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here.
UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December 2016
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2
decrease as green harvests replenish household andmarket stocks.The increase inprices is likelyduetopoorerthannormalproductionprospects and below-average first season production. Althoughlivestockbodyconditionsareonlyslightlybelowaverage,priceshaveatypicallydeclinedinrecentmonths,giventheoversupplyoflivestockfor sale. Many households are selling more livestock than usual,anticipatingthatpasturewillbe insufficientduringthedryseasontoadequately support currentherdsizes. InNovember, thepriceofanaverage goat in key markets was 20 percent below both the sametime last yearand the five-yearaverage.Thecombinationofabove-average staple foodprices and lower thannormal livestockprices isdecreasinghouseholdpurchasingcapacity.Onaverage, the saleofagoat bought 78 kilograms of sorghum in November, whereas itpurchased85kilogramsatthesametimelastyear.
In Teso, Busoga, greater Masaka, northeastern Acholi, most of thenorthwest,thecattlecorridor,andtheLakeVictoriabasin,manypoorhouseholds are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). These regions had below-average first season production in June and depleted householdstocks earlier than normal. Many are now atypically dependent onmarkets to access food, yet household purchasing capacity is belowaverage.Poorhouseholdsarecopingbyseekinglaboropportunitiesinnearby towns, receiving remittances from relatives, increasingcharcoal production, and selling poultry. Some poor households intheseareashavealsoreceivedfoodassistancefromtheGovernmentofUganda,localhumanitarianorganizations,andchurches,whohavecollectively provided food assistance in Bukomansimbi, Lwengo,Kalungu,Kaliro,Serere,Katakwi,andAmuria.
ThedryseasonisongoinginKaramoja,butduetohigherthannormalland surface temperatures, of 3-7 degrees Celsius above average,pastureandwaterresourcesaredepletingfasterthanusual.Conflicthas been reported between Karamojong pastoralists in Kaabong,Kotido, and Moroto, and pastoralists from Turkana who havemigrated their livestock to Karamoja. Livestock body conditions,though,remainnearaverage,asdrypastureisstilllargelyadequate.ItislikelysomepoorhouseholdsinMoroto,Napak,andpartsofKaabongandAbimhavedepletedhouseholdfoodstocksthismonth,threemonthsearlythaninanormalyear,andarenowrelyingprimarilyonmarketstoaccessfood.However,thepriceofsorghumis10-30percentabovethefive-yearaverageandisdrivinglowerthannormalfoodaccess.Householdpurchasing capacity, asmeasured by labor-to-sorghumand charcoal-to-sorghum terms of trade, is 20-40 percent belowaverageinmostdistricts.According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 350,000 South Sudanese have fled toUgandasinceJuly2016.Refugeesnowmakeup20percentormoreofthepopulationinAdjumani,Kiryandongo,Isingiro,andYumbeDistricts(Figure2).NewlyarrivedrefugeesarehighlydependentonhumanitarianassistanceandarecurrentlyreceivingfullrationsfromtheWorldFoodProgramme(WFP).TheyareexpectedtobeStressed(IPCPhase2!).
UPDATEDASSUMPTIONSAlthoughmost of the assumptionsmade in FEWS NET’s Uganda Food Security Outlook for October 2016 toMay 2017remainvalid,thefollowingassumptionshavebeenupdated:• DecembersecondseasonproductioninbimodalareasofUgandawillbebelowaverage.Theworstaffectedareasof
Teso,greaterMasaka,andAcholiareexpectedtohavesignificantlybelow-averageproduction.However,overallproductionisstillexpectedtoresultinanationalsurplus.
• PastureandwaterresourceswillremainbelowaverageinbothKaramojaandthecattlecorridorthroughApril2017.
Figure 1. CHIRPS-estimated rainfall anomaly,percentofnormal,October1–December5,2016
Source:USGS/FEWSNET
Figure2.SouthSudaneserefugeepopulations insettlementsinUganda,December2016District Refugee
populationHostpopulation
Percent ofpopulationmadeupbyrefugees
Adjumani 197,418 237,100 43%
Kiryand-ongo
66,935 282,400 19%
Isingiro 120,415 525,100 19%
Yumbe 230,000 535,600 30%
Source:UNHCR
UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December 2016
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3
PROJECTEDOUTLOOKTHROUGHMAY2017Asecondseasonofbelow-averageproduction isexpected inmanybimodalareas.Poorhouseholdswillhave lower thannormalhouseholdfoodstocksthroughMay2017and,subsequently,incomefromcropsaleswillalsobemuchlowerthannormal.Itislikelystaplefoodpriceswillremainabovethefive-yearaveragethroughouttheprojectionperiod.Withlowerthan normal income and high prices, household purchasing capacity will be below normal.Manywill continue to copethrough seeking labor opportunities in nearby cities and increasing petty trade, although food accesswill remain belownormal.PoorhouseholdsinTeso,Busoga,GreaterMasaka,northeasternAcholi,mostofthenorthwest,thecattlecorridor,andtheLakeVictoriabasinarelikelytoremainStressed(IPCPhase2)fromDecember2016throughMay2017.
InKaramoja,expectedfoodsecurityoutcomesremainasreportedintheUgandaFoodSecurityOutlookforOctober2016toMay2017.MostdistrictswillremainStressed(IPCPhase2)throughMay,duetoearlierthanusualdepletionofhouseholdstocksandseasonallylowincome-earningopportunities.InNapak,Kaabong,andMoroto,whereharvestsweresignificantlybelowaverage,poorhouseholdsareexpectedtobeinCrisis(IPCPhase3)inAprilandMay,thepeakoftheleanseason.
ThenumberofSouthSudaneseseekingrefugeinUgandaisexpectedtoincreasethroughatleastMay2017.Duetofundinggapsandhighneeds,theWorldFoodProgramme(WFP)hasreducedassistancetohalfrationsforallrefugeeswhoarrivedinUgandabeforeJuly2015.Thenearly200,000refugeesimpactedbythisareexpectedtoremainStressed(IPCPhase2):inadditiontothereductioninfoodassistance,mosthavelimitedcapacitytocultivategiventhesmallplotsizesallocatedtorefugees.Furthermore,October-Decemberrainfallwaspoorinallrefugeesettlementsandrefugeeswillalsoharvestlowerthannormalamounts inDecember.Mostnewlyarrivedrefugeeswereunable tocultivateandareheavilydependentonhumanitarianassistance.Giventhathumanitarianassistance isnotplanned, funded,and likely throughMay2017,newlyarrived refugees in Adjumani, Kiryandongo, Isingiro, and Yumbe Districts are expected to be Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in theabsenceofhumanitarianassistance.SEASONALCALENDARFORATYPICALYEAR
Source: FEWS NET
ABOUTTHISUPDATEThismonthlyreportcoverscurrentconditionsaswellaschangestotheprojectedoutlookforfoodinsecurityinthiscountry.ItupdatesFEWSNET’squarterlyFoodSecurityOutlook.Learnmoreaboutourworkhere.