Udo Mantau, Ulrike Saal Udo Mantau · 8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all? 1....
Transcript of Udo Mantau, Ulrike Saal Udo Mantau · 8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all? 1....
Udo Mantau, Ulrike SaalForest industry and other material use -Business as usual?
Udo Mantau:
Wood Resource Balance –Is there enough wood for all?
Udo Mantau:
Wood Resource Balance –Is there enough wood for all?
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
1. Total Balance 2010 – dimensions
2. Balances 2010 – 2030 – development
3. Structural changes
4. Regional distribution
5. Further development of the WRB
Content
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 2
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
8.1 Wood resource balance - dimensions
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 3
Europe (EU/EFTA) 2010 – sector dimensions (medium mobil. - A1)
dimensions of the wood resource market 2010
Resource potential Potential demand
Other woody biomass Energy user
Forest resources Forest industry662 M m³
331 M t o.d.5.833 PJ
332 M m³ 166 M t o.d.
2.923 PJ
458 M m³ 229 M t o.d.4.037 PJ
346 M m³ 173 M t o.d.3.052 PJ
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
Europe (EU/EFTA) (in M. m³) 2010 - actual use
8.1 Wood resource balance - dimensions
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 4
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
potential 2010 in M m³ in M m³ demand 2010stemwood C, ME 362 196 sawmill industrystemwood NC, ME 182 11 veneer plywood ind.forest residues, ME 118 143 pulp industrybark, ME 24 92 panel industrylandscape care w. (USE) ME 59 15 other material uses +)short rotation plantation - 21 producer solid wood fuelssawmill by products 87 20 forest sector intern. useother industrial residues 30 128 biomass power plantsblack liquor 60 23 private households (pellets)solid wood fuels 21 155 private households (other)post consumer wood 52 0 liquid biofuels
total 994 805 total
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 potential and demand in M. m³ medium mobilisation
8.2 Wood resource balance – developments
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 5
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
potential in Mio. m³ 2010 in % 2010 in % demand in Mio. m³
stemwood C, ME 362 36,4 196 24,3 sawmill industry
stemwood NC, ME 182 18,3 11 1,4 veneer plywood ind.
forest residues, ME 118 11,9 143 17,8 pulp industry
bark, ME 24 2,4 92 11,4 panel industry
landscape c. w. (USE) ME 59 5,9 15 1,9 other material uses
short rotation plantation - - 21 2,6 proc. solid wood fuelssawmill by products 87 8,8 20 2,5 forest sector intern. useother industrial residues 30 3,0 128 15,9 biomass power plantsblack liquor 60 6,0 23 2,9 households (pellets)solid wood fuels 21 2,1 155 19,3 households (other)post consumer wood 52 5,2 0 0,0 liquid biofuelstotal 994 100,0 805 100,0 total
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 potential and demand in M. m³ medium mobilisation in M m³
8.2 Wood resource balance – developments
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 6
forest
other wood
material
energy
0 200 400 600 800
662
657
657
332
388
452
458
522
620
346
573
752
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
201020202030
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 potential and demand in M. m³ medium mobilisation
8.2 Wood resource balance – developments
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 7
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
potential in Mio. m³ 2010 2030 2010 2030 demand in Mio. m³
stemwood C, ME 362 356 196 247 sawmill industry
stemwood NC, ME 182 181 11 17 veneer plywood ind.
forest residues, ME 118 120 143 200 pulp industry
bark, ME 24 23 92 136 panel industry
landscape care w. ME 59 74 15 20 other material uses +)
short rotation plantation - - 21 54 pro. solid wood fuelssaw mill by products 87 108 20 22 forest sector intern. useother industrial residues 30 42 128 393 biomass power plantsblack liquor 60 85 23 82 households (pellets)solid wood fuels 21 54 155 151 households (other)post consumer wood 52 67 0 29 liquid biofuelstotal 994 1109 805 1349 total
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
EU27 - total woody biomass demand and potential with low, medium and high mobilisation scenario
8.2 Wood resource balance – developments
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 8
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
A1highmed.low
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 - total woody biomass demand and potential with low, medium and high mobilisation scenario
8.2 Wood resource balance – developments
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 9
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
in M m³ - comparing plot
total woody biom. surpl./defic. HI total woody biom. surpl./defic. MEtotal woody biom. surpl./defic. LO
high
med.low
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 – share of energy and material use
8.3 Wood resource balance – structural changes
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 10
57%
43%
For energy use
For material use
46%
54%
49%51
%2010
2020
2030
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 – share of forest woody biomass and other biomass
8.3 Wood resource balance – structural changes
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 11
forest woody biomass
other woody biomass
2010
2020
2030
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 – material and energy wood consumption in 2020 in M m³
8.4 Wood resource balance – regional distribution
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE GB
1st. bar material use
2nd. bar energy use
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
in M m³
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 – potential resources and needs in 2020
8.4 Wood resource balance – regional distribution
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
North West East South
low mobilization 2020
medium mobilization 2020
high mobilization 2020
total w. biom. demand 2020 B2
total w. biom. demand 2020 A1
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
E27 – potential resources and needs in 2030
8.4 Wood resource balance – regional distribution
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 14
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood – team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTILLA/ASSIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscap care wood; SAAL, U.: industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options; JOHNSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
North West East South
low mobilization 2030
medium mobilization 2030
high mobilization 2030
total w. biom. demand 2030 B2
total w. biom. demand 2030 A1
8 Wood resource balance – Is there enough wood for all?
What does WRB currently offer?A framework for all woody biomass and the possibilityto calculate many key numbers for a better understandingof woody biomass and wood consumption
Which potential does WRB offer?It could as well describe the resource demand over time.By extending it to the end-use sector and to the disposalsector it would be able to calculate complete wood flowsand calculate CO2 sequestration in the wood chain.
What´s the key?Monitoring activities (empirical studies) on capacities and resource mix as well as on distribution to end use sectors.
8.5 Wood resource balance – further development
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 15
E27
8 Wood resource balance – future development
Empirical studies on resource assortments used in the sectors
07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 16
supply 2010 in M m³ in M m³ demand 2010stemwood C, ME sawmill industrystemwood NC, ME veneer plywood ind.forest residues, ME pulp industrybark, ME panel industrylandscape care w. (USE) ME other material uses +)short rotation plantation producer solid wood fuelssawmill by products forest sector intern. useother industrial residues biomass power plantsblack liquor private households (pellets)solid wood fuels private households (other)post consumer wood liquid biofuels
total total
Wood flow
From resource
tosemi-finished
toend use sectors
to
disposal
and
carbon sequestration in
products07.06.2010 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 17
Son
stig
e: 1
,459
10,350
8,458
Industrierestholz: 4,472
Waldholz: 59,391
ProduktionHalbwaren:
44,486
Marktversorgungim Inland:
35,514
Lieferung anFertigwaren-
bereiche:34,654
Industrierestholz-sektor
Import
Export
Ver
pack
ung:
5,3
72
Lageraufbau: 1,770
Hobelspäne: 0,532
Unbest. Aufkommen: 2,372
4,655
Inlandversorgung Rohholz: 72,197
Rohstoffsektor
Halbwarensektor
Fertigwarensektor
Möb
el: 9
,027
Unbest. Verwendung: 0,911
Ver
dich
tung
: 8,4
85
Säg
eneb
enpr
oduk
te:
11,8
67
Furnier- undSpanplatten-
industrie:0,123
Alth
olz:
2,6
60sonst. Industrierestholz: 0,593
Säg
eneb
enpr
oduk
te:
11,8
67
Bau
:18
,796
Industrierestholz: 18,888
Sonstige Austräge: 0,339
Sperrholz-industrie:
0,123
6,805
Hobelware: 2,834
14,062
6,661
Process 1
13,385
6,5853,6221,199
2,44
2
1,75
0
0,25
9
Entsorgung
Verbleib24,79271,5%
5,411 9,86328,5%
(30,362)
(23,463)