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Transcript of UCC Climate Change Research Workshop Flash Presentations University College Cork May 29 th, 2013,...
UCC Climate Change Research Workshop
Flash PresentationsUniversity College Cork
May 29th, 2013, 9:00 -13:00Boole 5, UCC Campus
Dr. Ned Dwyer
The Status of Ireland’s Climate, 2012
Essential Climate Variables of Relevance to Ireland
as defined by the Global Climate Observing System Secretariat
Air Temperature
T mean has increased by approximately 0.8oC over the last 110 years
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
8.6
9.0
9.4
9.8
10.2
10.6
Mean Surface Air Temperature (1900-2011)Annual Mean Simple linear trend 11 year moving average 1961-1990 Normal
Year
Diffe
renc
e (o
C) fr
om 1
961
- 199
0 Mean Annual Tem
perature (oC)
Ireland’s Climate is changing in line with regional and global trends…..
…but local patterns are evident. It is essential that Ireland’s climate observation system is maintained and enhanced to allow us understand how our climate is changing and how best to adapt
Dr. Dean VenablesDept. of Chemistry/ERI
New Approaches To Measuring The Aerosol Direct Effect In Radiative Forcing
OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF PARTICLES
Field studies: Martins et al., 2009
“a large source of uncertainty in the aerosol radiative forcing estimates is associated with aerosol absorption.” (IPCC, 2007)
Wood combustion: Chen & Bond, 2010
OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF PARTICLES
Broadband optical cavity spectroscopy (IBBCEAS)Coupled to simulation chambers
INSTRUMENT DEVELOPMENT: Extension to near-UV
CCD
FTIR
NOx detect. O3 detect.
Atmospheric chamber
Xe Arc Lamp
Filter
Iris
L1
L2
Iris
M M
M1 M2
OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF NITROAROMATIC AEROSOL
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0
1
2
3
Fra
ctio
nal i
nten
sity
cha
nge
Time (min)
400 nm
340 nm
photolysis
1-NN added
(a)
60 80 100 120
0
20
40
60
Con
cent
ratio
n (
103 c
m-3)
Time (min)
0
1
2
3
Mas
s co
ncen
trat
ion
(10
2 g
m-3)
(b)
320 340 360 380 400
0
2
4
6118 min
99 min
94 min
extin
ctio
n co
effici
ent (
10-5 c
m-1)
wavelength (nm)
(c)
89 min (1-NN gas)
NO2
1-nitronaphthalene
OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF PARTICLES
• Measure broadband, near-UV extinction spectra of gases & particles• Study optical properties of different aerosol types & how they
change with atmospheric processing
Prof. Graham ParkesDept. of Philosophy
The Politics of Global Warming
The Politics of Climate Change:
Philosophical Perspectives
• 1. The Climate Sciences• 2. Climate Scepticism• 3. The Promethean
Spirit• 4. Engaging China• 5. Nature and
Technology
Climate Scepticism
Psycho-social factors: the problem is imperceptible, abstract (far future);
wishful thinking, pre-judgments -
social identity
Economic factors: tackling climate change will restrict growth of GNP
• Political factors: two major obstacles (USA)
• 1. The enormous financial power of the fossil fuel industries
» to fund think-tanks, lobby Congress, re-elect politicians
• Carbon-rich nations: » USA, Russia, China, Australia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi
Arabia, India, Canada . . .
• 2. The power of the religious Republicans in Congress» who control the Committee on the Environment, the
Energy Committee, the Science Committee
An inconvenient fact:To stand an 80% chance of preventing a temperature rise of
2ºC over pre-industrial levels, some 80% of currently
owned fossil fuel reserves will have to be left in the ground
-- a loss of some $20 trillion.
• Myth: ‘This never happened, but is always going on.’
• The Titan Prometheus gave us fire stolen from Zeus • and (stolen from other Gods) the techniques of
survival:
• woodworking, house-building, ship-building,• agriculture, animal husbandry, and mining.
• Plato: ‘Prometheus gave humans the survival arts, but
• not the political arts.’
Prometheus relieved us of ‘a sense of our death’ and gave us instead ‘blind hopes’.
The punishment of Prometheus:
Chained to a rock on a mountain-top, his liver is pecked out daily by the eagle of Zeus.
The Spirit of Prometheus
Celine McInerneyFinance Lecturer
Department of Accounting, Finance and Information Systems
“Financial Market Assessment of Carbon Liabilities”
Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assetsLord Nicholas Stern
• 565 – 886 billion tonnes CO2 carbon budget for 20 C scenario (IEA & Carbon Tracker)• 2,860 billion tonnes CO2 – Top 200 emitters current fossil fuel reserves (Stern et al.)
• 40-60% of the market value of top 200 oil and gas companies ($4 trillion market value & $1.5 trillion debt) at risk as carbon liabilities are not recognised by investors
Conclusion: Markets do not believe politicians will enforce carbon targets
• If markets are right => carbon targets not enforced and temperature will increase by over 30 C • If markets are wrong => politicians enforce carbon targets and 40-60% of energy companies’
value will be wiped out
Summary• No accounting standard for carbon liabilities• CO2 liabilities not disclosed in accounts • Difficult for rating agencies to assess impact• Expectation of CO2 market fix increasing cost of capital –
April 16, 2013, following EU parliament rejection of CO2 “backloading” plan utilities shares ↓: Eon 5%, RWE 2%
• Neither equity nor credit markets pricing in CO2 risk
Areas of Knowledge• Finance theory on risk and return, portfolio theory• Valuation using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Monte Carlo• Modelling financial returns to renewable investors• Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Weighted Average Cost of
Capital (WACC), Cost of debt (bond pricing), cost of equity – calculating asset Betas etc.
• Options: Black and Scholes, Margrabe spread options, real options
• Financial statement analysis• Energy market models and electricity price forecasting, SEM,
BETTA• Interconnection / Valuation of Interconnectors • Accounting for carbon liabilities
Dr Fiona Cawkwell, Department of Geography, UCC; [email protected]
Earth Observation systems for Climate Change
Earth Observation systems for Climate Change
Dr Fiona Cawkwell, Department of Geography, UCC; [email protected]
FAPAR value
Courtesy of Dr Brian O’Connor
Courtesy of Dr Brian Barrett
Courtesy of Gillian Whelan
Courtesy of Stuart Green
Dr Fiona Cawkwell, Department of Geography, UCC; [email protected]
Courtesy of Dr Brian Barrett
Earth Observation systems for Climate Change at UCC
Wind Energy, CO2 emissions and export of renewable electricity
Dr. Paul Leahy,Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Environmental Research
InstituteUniversity College Cork
ERI Climate Change Research Showcase, May 29th [email protected]
Image: Anne, flickr.com, creative commons licence
CO2 sources CO2 sinks
ERI Climate Change Workshop 2013
Does wind energy mitigate CO2 emissions?
• Turbine manufacture• Transport to site• Soil disturbance• Foundations & site works• Tree felling• Spinning reserve• Other power system effects• Operations & maintenance• Decommissioning
• Displaced CO2 emissions from fossil fuel generation
pre-operational operational-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
CO
2 em
issi
ons
[g C
O2 /
kW
h]
Indicative wind farm CO2 balance
foundations/site works
peat disturbanceturbine manufacture
displaced emissions (1 year)
ERI Climate Change Workshop 2013
Does wind energy mitigate CO2 emissions?
CO2 emissions are highly site-dependent
Yes, overwhelmingly,:
but…CO2 abatement: Power
systems are complex -- new measures and
infrastructure to support renewables may have
unintended consequences!lifetime
1 yearCO2 sink
CO2 source
Wind export to Britain: issues to be resolved
• RES-E generated counts towards UK renewables target
• CO2 associated with land-use change : “booked” in Ireland?
• Extent of construction on cutaway bogs and tree felling?
• Lost opportunities for peatland restoration – what are long-term CO2 fluxes at restored peatlands?
ERI Climate Change Workshop 2013
‘Greenwire’ project – Element Power (2.5 GW wind) `c. 1000 turbines
‘EnergyBridge’ project - Mainstream Renewable Power (3 GW wind) c. 1200 turbines
… both by 2020!
Climate Justice, Human Rights and Natural Disasters
Dug CubieIrish Research Council New Foundations awards
University College Cork, Ireland29th May 2013
Protection of Persons
Climate change
Disaster risk
reduction
Disaster response
Sustainable development
Kyoto Protocol
Hyogo Framework
ILC draft articles
MDGs
Post-2015 frameworks
Incoherent Broadband Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy (IBBCEAS)
Application to Climate Research
Ranjini RaghunandanAlbert A. Ruth
Physics Department, University College Cork
IBBCEAS• Measures the transmission of light intensity through a stable optical
cavity consisting of high reflectance mirrors (R>0.999)
• Allows a significant spectral range to be covered simultaneously• Light sources commercially available, simple, inexpensive and bright
• IBBCEAS + FT High spectral resolution• High sensitivity, experimental simplicity
Fiedler, S.E., Hese, A., Ruth, A.A., Chem. Phys. Lett., 371 (2003) 284.Orphal, J., Ruth, A.A., Opt. Express, 16 (2008) 19232.
The Hydroxyl Radical
• OH: The most important oxidising agent in the troposphere!
• Determines concentrations and distribution of greenhouse gases and pollutants
• An important source for CO2 production
• OH + CO CO2 + H
The role of nitrogen in OH production
• NO2 + H2O HONO + HNO3
Lammel, G., Cape, J. N., Chem. Soc. Rev., 25 (1996) 361.Heard, D. E. Annu. Rev. Phys. Chem. 57 (2006) 191 .
Application of FT-IBBCEAS to the HONO problem
• Detection of the species’ fingerprints over 3000 cm-1 allows direct comparison of
relative concentrations a probe to the reaction chemistry
• High spectral resolution contribution to spectral databases
Other applications of IBBCEAS
• Chemical Reaction Kinetics• Pollution monitoring• Fundamental Science and Research• Breath Analysis• Combustion Diagnostics
More Informationhttp://laser-spectroscopy.ucc.ie/