UBS JUL 14 Swiss Economy
Transcript of UBS JUL 14 Swiss Economy
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Swiss Economy
Status: July 14, 2010
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Contents
Section 1 Global Economy 2
Section 2 Swiss Economy 9
Section 3 Interest Rates 21
Section 4 Exchange Rates 31
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SECTION 1
Global Economy
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3
International economic growth
% change of real GDP over previous year
US Eurozone SwitzerlandSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
y/y-change
inp
ercent
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-10
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Eurozone SwitzerlandSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
y/y-change
inp
ercent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Economic growth in Switzerland and in the Eurozone
% change of real GDP over previous year
Forecasts
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5
Growth Differential Switzerland - Eurozone
In percentage points
Forecast
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International unemployment rates
Unemployment rate in %
US Eurozone SwitzerlandSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Per
cent
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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8
Business climate
Manufacturing sector
US (ISM) Eurozone (European Commission) Switzerland (KOF)Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Stand
ardized
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
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9
Consumer sentiment
Standardized
US (Conference Board)
Eurozone (European Commission)
Switzerland (seco)
Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Stan
dardized
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
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SECTION 2
Swiss Economy
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Real GDP growthSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
y/y-change
inp
ercent
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Swiss economic growth since 1960
% change of real GDP over previous year
Forecasts
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Switzerland: Economic growth
Quarterly growth contributions, expenditure approach
Inventories
Net exports
Fixed Investment
Government consumption
Private consumption
Real GDP, in % q/qSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Percen
tage
Points
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
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Switzerland: Economic growth
Annual growth contributions, expenditure approach
Inventories
Net exports
Fixed Investment
Government consumption
Private consumption
Real GDP, in % y/ySource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Percen
tage
Points
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Switzerland: GDP and KOF economic barometer
% change over previous year
Real GDP growth, interpolated KOF economic barometerSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
y/y-change
inp
ercent
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
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Switzerland: Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate Unemployment rate, seasonally adjustedSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Switzerland: Private consumption
% change of real private consumption and consumer sentiment
Real private consumption Consumer sentimentSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
In
dex
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
y/y-change
inp
ercent
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
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Switzerland: UBS Consumption IndicatorThe UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated from five sub-indicators: new car sales, business activity in
the retail sector, the number of domestic hotel overnight stays by Swiss nationals, the consumersentiment index, and credit card transactions via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland.
Real private consumption, interpolated
UBS consumption indicatorSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Index
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
y/y-chan
ge
inp
ercent
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
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Switzerland: Private consumption
% change of real private consumption and retail sales
Private consumption, interpolated
Retail Sales, real, 12-month-moving average Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
y/y-chan
ge
inp
ercent
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
y/y-chan
ge
inp
ercent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
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Switzerland: Capital spending
Capital spending and capacity utilization
P
ercent
y/y-chan
ge
inp
ercent
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Switzerland: Inflation
CPI total Domestic inflation Imported inflationSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
y/y-chang
e
inp
ercent
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Headline consumer price inflation (CPI) and inflation by origin
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Switzerland: Long-term sector positioning
UBS outlook Q1/2010: Sectoral trends
Source: UBS Wealth Management Research
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SECTION 3
Interest Rates
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International government bond yields
Yield on 10Y government bonds in USD, EUR, and CHF
USA Eurozone Switzerland Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Pe
rcent
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
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International money market rates
3M Libor in USD, EUR, and CHF
USA Eurozone Switzerland Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Pe
rcent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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Target range of Swiss monetary policy
Target range Target rate 3M LiborSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Pe
rcent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
CHF 3M Libor and target range by the Swiss National Bank (SNB)
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Switzerland: Interest rates
3M Libor 6M Libor 12M Libor Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Pe
rcent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
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Switzerland: Interest rates
3M Libor Confederation bond yield 10YSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Pe
rcent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
CHF 3M Libor and yield on 10Y Swiss confederation bonds
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Switzerland: Interest rates
2Y 5Y 10Y Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Pe
rcent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Yield on Swiss confederation bonds
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Switzerland: Capital market yields
Swap 2Y Swap 3Y Swap 5Y Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Pe
rcent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
S i l d C i l k i ld
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Swap 2Y Swap 3Y Swap 5Y Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Pe
rcent
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Switzerland: Capital market yields
Forecasts
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SECTION 4
Exchange Rates
EURCHF d P h i P P it (PPP)
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EURCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
EURCHF EURCHF PPP Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
USDCHF d P h i P P it (PPP)
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USDCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
USDCHF USDCHF PPP Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
GBPCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
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GBPCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
GBPCHF GBPCHF PPP Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.02.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
JPYCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
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JPYCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
JPYCHF JPYCHF PPP Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
SEKCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
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SEKCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
SEKCHF SEKCHF PPPSource: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0.125
0.150
0.175
0.200
0.225
0.250
0.275
NOKCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
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NOKCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
NOKCHF NOKCHF PPPSource: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
AUDCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
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AUDCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
AUDCHF AUDCHF PPPSource: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
Economic Research Switzerland
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4040
UBS AGWealth Management ResearchP.O. BoxCH-8098 Zurich
Tel. 044-234 44 13Fax 044-234 25 99E-Mail: [email protected]: http://www.ubs.com/wmr-swiss-research
Economic Research Switzerland
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