Ubs critical raw materials seminar, frankfurt, 2011

32
Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch Chief Executive Officer AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. 21 March 2011 Major Challenges in Minor Metals

Transcript of Ubs critical raw materials seminar, frankfurt, 2011

Page 1: Ubs critical raw materials seminar, frankfurt, 2011

Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch

Chief Executive Officer

AMG Advanced Metallurgical

Group N.V.21 March 2011

Major Challenges in Minor Metals

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THIS DOCUMENT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND IS BEING PROVIDED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION BY AMGADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V. (THE “COMPANY”) AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM OR FURTHERDISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITHTHIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF APPLICABLE SECURITIES LAWS.

This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquiresecurities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries nor should it or any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied on in connectionwith, any contract or commitment whatsoever.

This presentation has been prepared by, and is the sole responsibility of, the Company. This document, any presentation made in conjunction herewith and anyaccompanying materials are for information only and are not a prospectus, offering circular or admission document. This presentation does not form a part of,and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or solicitation to subscribe for or purchase, or dispose of any of the securities of the companies mentionedin this presentation. These materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States or an invitation or an offer to the public or form ofapplication to subscribe for securities. Neither this presentation nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any

offer or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, expressor implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or the opinions contained herein. TheCompany and its advisors are under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation. To the extent allowed by law, noneof the Company or its affiliates, advisors or representatives accept any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from anyuse of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation.

Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy,plans and objectives of management for future operations. These statements, which contain the words "believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intends,” “estimate,”“forecast,” “project,” “will,” “may,” “should” and similar expressions, reflect the beliefs and expectations of the management board of directors of the

Company and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors,the achievement of the anticipated levels of profitability, growth, cost and synergy of the Company‟s recent acquisitions, the timely development and acceptanceof new products, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals, and the impact of general business and global economicconditions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein.

Neither the Company, nor any of its respective agents, employees or advisors intend or have any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise anyof the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

The information and opinions contained in this document are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice.

This document has not been approved by any competent regulatory or supervisory authority.

Cautionary Note

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Introduction

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AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.

Listed: NYSE-Euronext Amsterdam: AMG

Founded: 2006

Revenues: $990.5M

Employees: 2,600

Production facilities: Netherlands, Germany, UK, USA, Brazil, France,

Turkey, Canada, Czech Republic, China, Mexico,

Belgium, India, Poland, Sri Lanka

Enterprise Value: €560 million

52 week range: €6.25–€14.55

Recent share price: €14.49 (18 March 2011)

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Critical Raw Materials: AMG’s Involvement

1

HHydrogen

1.0

3

LiLithium

6.9

11

NaSodium

23.0

19

KPotassium

39.1

37

RbRubidium

85.5

55

CsCaesium

132.9

87

FrFrancium

223.0

88

RaRadium

226.0

4

BeBeryllium

9.0

20

CaCalcium40.1

38

SrStrontium

87.6

56

BaBarium

137.4

39

YYitrium

88.9

57-71

89-103

21

ScScandium

45.0

22

TiTitanium

47.9

40

ZrZirconium

91.2

72

HfHafnium

178.5

104

RfRutherfordlium

261

23

VVanadium

50.9

41

NbNiobium

92.9

73

TaTantalum

181.0

105

DbDubnium

262

24

CrChromium

52.0

42

MoMolybdenum

95.9

74

WTungsten

183.9

106

SgSeaborgium

263

25

MnManganese

54.9

43

TcTechnetium

99

75

ReRhenium

186.2

107

BhBohrium

264

26

FeIron

55.9

44

RuRuthenium

101.0

76

OsOsmium

190.2

108

HsHassium

265

27

CoCobalt

58.9

45

RhRhodium

102.9

77

IrIridium

192.2

109

MtMeitnerium

266

28

NiNickel

58.7

46

PdPalladium

106.4

78

PtPlatinum

195.1

110

DsDarmstadtium

269

29

CuCopper

63.5

47

AgSilver

107.9

79

AuGold

197.0

111

RgRoentgenium

272

30

ZnZinc

65.4

48

CdCadmium

112.4

80

HgMercury

200.6

112

UumUnunbium

277

5

BBoron

10.8

13

AlAluminum

27.0

31

GaGallium

69.7

49

InIndium

114.8

81

TlThallium

204.4

113

UutUnuntrium

284

6

CCarbon

12.0

14

SiSilicon

28.1

32

GeGermanium

72.6

50

SnTin

118.7

82

PbLead

207.2

114

UuqUnunquadium

289

7

NNitrogen

14.0

15

PPhosphorus

31.0

33

AsArsenic

74.9

51

SbAntimony

121.8

83

BiBismuth

209.0

115

UupUnunpentium

288

8

OOxygen

16.0

16

SSulfur

32.1

34

SeSelenium

79.0

52

TeTellurium

127.6

84

PoPolonium

210.0

116

UuhUnunhexium

292

9

FFluorine

19.0

17

ClChlorine

35.5

35

BrBromine

79.9

53

IIodine

126.9

85

AtAstatine

210.0

2

HeHelium

4.0

10

NeNeon

20.2

18

ArArgon

40.0

36

KrKrypton

83.8

54

XeXenon

131.3

86

RnRadon

222.0

57

LaLanthanum

138.9

89

AcActinium

132.9

90

ThThorium

232.0

58

CeCerium

140.1

59

PrPraseodymium

140.9

91

PaProtactinium

231.0

60

NdNeodymium

144.2

92

UUranium

238.0

61

PmPromethium

147.0

93

NpNeptunium

237.0

62

SmSamarium

150.4

94

PuPlutonium

242.0

62

EuEuropium

152.0

95

AmAmericium

243.0

64

GdGadolinium

157.3

96

CmCurium

247.0

65

TbTerbium

158.9

97

BkBerkelium

247.0

66

DyDysprosium

162.5

98

CfCalifornium

251.0

67

HoHolmium

164.9

99

EsEinsteinium

254.0

68

ErErbium

167.3

100

FmFermium

253.0

69

TmThallium

168.9

101

MdMendelevium

256.0

70

YbYtterbium

173.0

102

NoNobelium

254.0

71

LuLutetium

175.0

103

LrLawrencium

257.0

12

MgMagnesium

24.3

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Ti Alloys for Aerospace

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Consumer Electronics

Tantalum for capacitors

Aerospace

Titanium quantities for the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 is

over 2.5 times the amount used on aircraft they are replacing

Solar

Silicon metal demand for solar applications was 180,000 tons

10% of global production

20% growth per annum estimated

Electric car “E-Car”

Mineral Lithium

Cathodes - 10-20% estimated growth per annum

Natural Graphite

Anodes

Nuclear waste solutions

Technology Leaps Trigger Rapid Demand Growth

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2010 2015

Total Auto Sales (units) 70,169,000 91,872,000

% E-Car 1.1% 3.8%

E-Car Sales (units) 774,000 3,484,000

Natural Graphite Needed (mt) 37,152 167,232

E-Cars – Natural Graphite

One car* battery =* Based on 30 kWh

Nissan Leaf (25 kWh) BMW Mini EV (35 kWh)

24 kg of graphite

Sources: Credit Suisse, GK, company estimates

Separator

Anode(Graphite)

Cathode(Lithium)

+

Li+

e-

e-

Li+ Li+

Li+ Li+ Li+

Li+ Li+ Li+

Li+ Li+ Li+

Electrolyte Electrolyte

4.5x in 5 Years!

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Critical Metals and Technology Development

Ta

Sb

Si

V

Ti

Mg Cr

Nb

C

Dem

an

d G

row

th

Technology Development

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Critical Metals and Technology Development

Dem

an

d G

row

th

Technology Development

TaSb Si

V

Ti

Mg

Cr

Nb

C

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Tantalum

Greenbushes Tin – Talison – Global Advanced Metals,

Australia (founded 1889)

Niobium

CBMM, Brazil (founded 1955)

Molybdenum

Jin Dui Cheng, Shanxi Province, China (founded 1970s)

Rare Earths (“REE”)

Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, China (founded 1980s)

All are still the world’s largest mines – the same as 30 years ago

Reserve Depletion and Big New Finds

(1) World Titanium Market 2009 PSC VSMPO-Avisma Corporation

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Hurdles

Lack of collection systems, unattractive economics

Lack of technologies, expensive development

Dissipation – metals “vanishing” into the end products

Conclusion

What can be (easily) recycled, is recycled

Rarely big technology developments

Recycling – Only a Partial Solution, but Growing

(1) AMG estimates

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Critical Raw Materials: Primary Supply, Recycling, Demand

Severe

Supply

Risk

Rapid

Demand

Growth

Limited

Recycling

Potential

Chromium Metal

Tantalum

Cerium

GraphiteLithium

Silicon MetalTitanium

Vanadium

The world without government action

Source: Institute for Applied Technology, UNEP, July 2009; AMG

MagnesiumNiobium

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Critical Raw Materials: Primary Supply, Recycling, Demand

Severe

Supply

Risk

Rapid

Demand

Growth

Limited

Recycling

Potential

Chromium Metal

Tantalum

Graphite

Lithium

Silicon Metal

Titanium

Vanadium

The world with government action

Source: Institute for Applied Technology, UNEP, July 2009; AMG

Magnesium

Niobium

Cerium

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$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Volatility

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Antimony Silicon Metal

Titanium Sponge Fe Vanadium

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Sources: AMG, Bloomberg

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$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Volatility - Cerium

Sources: AMG, Bloomberg

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Critical Raw Materials:

Definition

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“The EU is highly dependent on imports of „high tech‟ metals

such as cobalt, platinum, rare earths, and titanium. Such materials

play an essential role in the development of innovative

„environmental technologies‟ for boosting energy efficiency and

reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Some raw materials can be considered to be particularly critical,

because of three reasons:

their significant economic importance for key sectors

high supply risks

lack of substitutes”

- ad hoc group of the Raw Materials Supply Group in a report to the European Commission, June 2010

Critical Raw Materials EU Definition

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The EU identified 14 critical raw materials to the European economy

Antimony

Beryllium

Cobalt

Fluorspar

Gallium

Germanium

Graphite

Critical Raw Materials EU Listing 14

(1) EU Report on Critical Raw Materials, June 2010

Indium

Magnesium

Niobium

PGM

Tungsten

Tantalum

Rare Earth

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Critical Raw Materials

“Critical” raw

materials

(1) European Commission Annex V to the Report of the Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials

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In addition to the “EU 14” materials, AMG believes that following

are critical based upon the EU criteria:

Vanadium (1)

Silicon metal

Titanium sponge (1)

Chromium metal

Mineral Lithium (1)

Antimony

This critical list would include 12 materials that involve AMG

That would bring the 14 “EU Critical Materials” to 20

Critical Raw Materials

(1) Included as “critical” by the U.S. National Academies (U.S. Congress‟ Scientific arm)

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Critical Raw Materials:

Geography

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Critical Raw Materials – Government Controls

Graphite

Antimony Graphite

REE Magnesium

Silicon Titanium

Vanadium

Tantalum

Niobium

Magnesium

Vanadium

Tantalum

Tantalum

Titanium Vanadium

Chromium Magnesium

Titanium

MagnesiumTitanium

Tantalum

Antimony

Graphite

Chromium

Magnesium

Government Controls

Source: AMG

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Sovereign Strategies:

an Interpretation

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Acquisition of

foreign assets and

technology

Critical Raw Materials - Sovereign Strategies

Sovereigns

Foreign processors welcome

to produce in country

Global industry leadership

headquartered in country

Reduced domestic

production

Reduced depletion,

environmental impact

Price increases

Export Restrictions

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China’s Position in Critical Minor Metals

Metal Activity Trade Restrictions Market Share

Antimony Mining Export Quotas 90%+

Tantalum Processor ----- 10%

Silicon Metal Mining Tariffs 50%+

Vanadium Slag ----- 33%

Graphite Mining, Smelting Tariffs 70%

Titanium Sponge Production Tariffs 33%

Niobium Processing ----- N/A

Strontium Production Export Quotas 90%+

Cerium Mining Export Quotas 90%+

Chromium Metal Smelting ----- 50%+

Magnesium Production ----- 80%+

Sources: AMG,

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Volatility will be even higher in the future

Cerium Revisited

Sources: AMG

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Germany’s dependency on China – selected metals:

Metal China’s Production

Rank

Germany’s Import

Percentage

Titanium 1 100

Vanadium 2 100

Silicon Metal 2 85

Chromium Metal 1 100

Strontium 1 100

Source: AMG

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Market Statistics

Magnesium

Conclusion

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■ Serve growing end markets with high value-added specialty metal

products and engineering solutions, related to CO2 reduction and

conservation of natural resources

■ Execute through a combination of:

■ Vertical integration

■ Industry consolidation

■ Continuous investment in productivity and technology

AMG’s Strategy

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Conclusion

Minor Metals are essential to the global economy

Governments now have significant and increasing roles

Very attractive rewards, but very high barriers of entry

Due to technology, this will remain a long-term business