U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR-07-2373 U N C L A S S I F I E D Microsimulation Modelling of...

U N C L A S S I F I E DLA-UR-07-2373

U N C L A S S I F I E DMicrosimulation Modelling of Evacuation Scenarios at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Ed Van Eeckhout, Phil Romero, Kriste Henson, Lori Dauelsberg, and Kirt Anderson


U N C L A S S I F I E D

Scenarios:• Evacuation: 3 cases• Normal Work Traffic• Close down Pajarito Rd.• Truck Route 4 lane

Assumptions:• 11,000 vehicles• evacuation occurs over 20 minutes• traffic patterns that exist today (turn counts)• Current speed limitations used

Study Parameters

Measures:• clearance time• vehicles on road counted within polygon• vehicles trapped in parking lots



TRANSIMS simulates the movement of individuals/vehicles among activities on a transportation infrastructure



We focus on one TRANSIMS module

• general characteristics– can be treated as “black boxes”– simple invocation– well-defined parameter sets– well-defined input/output file specifications

• several currently available– population synthesizer– activity generator– route planner– traffic microsimulator– emissions estimator– output visualizer

• alternate modules performing identical functions (but using different algorithms) can coexist

• completely new types of modules can be created



Simulation Based on Cellular Automaton Microsimulation



Destinations/Origins



The Network & Parking Lots



Lot 64 Example

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.



“Normal” Evacuation30 mins after initiation



“Normal” Evacuation90 mins after initiation



“Normal” Evacuation3 hrs 34 mins after initiation: “clear”



Sending S Site “around back” 90 mins after initiation



S Site & Paj Rd. Scenario90 mins after initiation



Movie Setup

Two movies to follow:• Baseline vs sp evac• Split into two time slots: 1 - 1 hr 48 mins - 3 hrs 36 mins• Movies start from 7:00 am• Timed such that each second is a minute



Baseline vs sp evac: movie

sp evac: 0 - 1 hr 48 mins

baseline evac: 0 - 1 hr 48 mins







Baseline vs sp evac: movie

baseline evac: 1 hr 48 mins - 3 hrs 16 mins

sp evac: 1 hr 48 mins - 3 hrs 16 mins







Traffic Polygons



Vehicles on Network: 2 scenarios



All vehicles, Baseline Scenario



All Vehicles, evac sp scenario



Laboratory clearance times: 11,000 vehicles loaded over 20 minutes



Conclusions

• Evacuation of 11,000 vehicles took up to 3 1/2 hours with one controlling signal

• By directing vehicles around back and down Pajarito Rd., the clearance time was improved to 2 1/2 hours, also using one controlling signal

• The existing system works pretty well, unless some major perturbation occurs

• Changing the truck route to 4 lane had little effect unless other roads blocked

• Closing Pajarito Rd. constricted traffic

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR-07-2373 U N C L A S S I F I E D Microsimulation Modelling of...

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