2014 TYPHOON SEASONTYPHOON RAMMASUNTuesday, July 15, 2014

Rammasun is the strongest storm to threaten the country since Haiyan, a Cat-5 "super typhoon," wiped out nearly

everything in its path when it crossed over the central

Philippines in November, 2013.

RAMMASUN (CAT 3) WAS HEADED FOR MANILLA—THE

FIRST DIRECT HIT ON THE CAPITOL IN FOUR YEARS—ON

JULY 14, 2014

TYPHOON RAMMASUN HEADED TOWARDS MANILLA

PHYSICAL DETAILS

• Typhoon Rammasun, with gusts of up to 160 kph (99 mph) and sustained winds of 130 kph (81 mph) near its centre, hit land over Rapu-Rapu island in the eastern province of Albay,

TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS

• At least 300,000 people have already fled from their homes in Albay province alone.

• However, many people were unwilling to evacuate.

TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS

• Schools were closed.• International flights were

cancelled.• The army was placed on high

alert.

WHAT CAN HAPPEN?

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AND RISK FROM

TYPHOON HAIYAN

HAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK

EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY LOCATION

RISK

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS (AKA HAZARDS) OF A TYPHOON

• WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)]

• DEBRIS• STORM SURGE/FLOODS• HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)• COSTAL EROSION

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE

TYPHOONS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS

STORM SURGE

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

SITING PROBLEMS

FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

CAUSES OF RISK

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

Rammasun is expected to bring storm surges of up to

three meters (10 feet) in coastal villages

REMEMBERING TYPHOON HAIYAN

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN DEVASTATED THE PHILIPPINES;

NOVEMBER 8-10, 2013

HAIYAN: A SUPER TYPHOON

HAIYAN REACHED THE PHILIPPINES: FRIDAY, NOV. 8

LANDFALL ON FRIDAY MORNING, NOV. 8

RATED AS PROBABLY THE STRONGEST TYPHOON EVER TO STRIKE THE

PHILIPPINES

ADVANCE EVACUATIONS

• 800,000 people were evacuated to emergency shelters.

AN EVACUATION CENTER

INITIAL IMPACTS IN THE PHILIPPINES

• Wide spread flooding, mudslides, and power outages

• Winds of 380 kph (290 mph)• TACLOBAN hit very hard by the

storm surge with many deaths• Tacloban’s airport destroyed

TACLOBAN (ON LEYTE ISLAND) HIT THE HARDEST

FOUR HOURS OF FEAR AND DESTRUCTION

• Winds flattened hundreds of homes.• Heavy rainfall triggered mudslides and

flash flooding.• A storm surge with waves of up to 10 m

(30 feet) destroyed everything, sweeping people away and drowning thousands.

STORM SURGE

AN AERIAL VIEW• It was like a tsunami," Interior

Secretary Manuel Roxas told Reuters.

• "From a helicopter, you could see the extent of devastation. From the shore and moving a km inland, no structures were left standing.

INITIAL IMPACTS IN THE PHILIPPINES

• Loss of communication• An estimated 10,000 people

dead• Economic losses in the billions

SURVIVOR STORIES

• Survivors of the storm described towering waves that swept away all but the most robust engineered structures.

DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE

DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE

DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE

DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE

DESTRUCTION AND DEATH EVERYWHERE

DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE

TACLOBAN AIRPORT

SURVIVOR NEEDS• Survivors were in desperate need

of clean drinking water and food• Survivors were temporarily cut off

from aid, and from their families in the Philippines as well as in other countries (e.g., 3 million in the USA)

USA MILITARY FORCES WERE DISPATCHED TO

ASSIST LOCAL OFFICIALS IN WHAT BECAME A

HISTORIC RELIEF EFFORT

Search and Rescue and Relief Efforts Were Hampered by

Landslides and Damaged Road Systems

LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

ONCE AGAIN, TYPHOON HAIYAN DEMONSTRATED THAT IT

USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE DISASTERS BEFORE THE

STRICKEN NATION WILL ADOPT POLICIES TO BECOME DISASTER

RESILIENT

ONCE AGAIN, UNAFFECTED NATIONS USUALLY DON’T

LEARN ANYTHING NEW AND DON’T CHANGE EXISTING

POLICIES ON THE BASIS OF ANOTHER NATION’S

EXPERIENCES

TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES AND MEASURES ARE

NEEDED BY MANY NATIONSPreparedness

Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Wind Engineering Building Code

Time,y Early Warning and EvacuationTimely Emergency Response (including

Emergency Medical Services)Cost-Effective Recovery

BASES FOR POLICIES THAT CALL FOR TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE

EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS

EXPERIENCES WITH MONITORING AND WARNING

EXPERIENCES WITH DISASTER SCENARIO PLANNING

EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

EXPERIENCES WITH PREVENTION, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION

INTEGRATE GLOBAL EXPERIENCES WITH LOCAL EXPERIENCES

THE CHALLENGE:

POLICY CHANGES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS TYPHOON RESILIENCE

LESSON: ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS ARE THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS

• The people who know: 1) what to expect (e.g., high-velocity winds, rain, flash floods, landslides, and storm surge), 2) where and when it will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare will survive.

LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS COMPLEX

• All kinds of things can go wrong during the emergency response period when the uncontrollable and unthinkable events happen along with the expected events

LESSON: TIMING OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS VITAL

• The “Uncontrollable and Unthinkable” events can significantly hinder the timing of urgent emergency response operations.

LESSON: TIMELY EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION SAVES LIVES

• The people who have timely early warning in conjunction with a community evacuation plan that facilitates getting out of harm’s way from the risks associated with storm surge, high winds, flooding, and landslides will survive.

LESSON: WIND ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES

• Buildings protected by wind engineering to withstand a typhoon’s high velocity winds will maintain their function, protect occupants and users, and minimize death and injury.

LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES

• Damaged hospitals and medical facilities combined with lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality will quickly overrun the local community’s capacity for emergency health care.

LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PROVIDES AID

• The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy by itself is not enough to ensure typhoon disaster resilience.

CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR TYPHOON DISASTER

RESILIENCE

USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER AND ACCELERATE THE CREATION OF TURNING

POINTS

THE PEOPLE OF THE PHILIPPINES HAVE HAD MANY

OPPORTUNITIES TO LEARN VITAL LESSONS

FROM PAST TYPHOONS OF ALL SIZES MAKING LANDFALL THERE

The Philippines has more than enough experience with typhoons for action.