Typhoon ForecastTyphoon Forecast Operational System Operational System

(Component of MICAPS3.1 )(Component of MICAPS3.1 )

China Meteorological AdministrationChina Meteorological Administration

May 12, 2009May 12, 2009

Outlines:Outlines:

•1. MICAPS3.11. MICAPS3.1

• 1.1 MICAPS brief introduction1.1 MICAPS brief introduction

• 1.2 MICAPS Framework Features1.2 MICAPS Framework Features

• 1.3 Micaps Main Functions1.3 Micaps Main Functions

Outlines:Outlines:

• 2. Typhoon Forecast Operational System2. Typhoon Forecast Operational System

• 2.1 Motivation of the component2.1 Motivation of the component• 2.2 Data Sources2.2 Data Sources• 2.3 Real Track Display2.3 Real Track Display• 2.4 History Searches2.4 History Searches• 2.5 Forecast Error Statistics2.5 Forecast Error Statistics• 2.6 Interactive Forecast Making2.6 Interactive Forecast Making• 2.7 Strike Probability2.7 Strike Probability

1.1 MICAPS brief 1.1 MICAPS brief introductionintroduction

• Full name: Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis And Process System

•Platform: PC-Windows , Linux/Unix

•The standard graphics workbench of Chinese forecasters used in almost all local weather centers

1.2 MICAPS 3.1 Framework 1.2 MICAPS 3.1 Framework FeaturesFeatures

•Open software architecture

•The functional Module is optional

•Special version for special usage

Main framework:Main framework:

Graphic layer control

View Control

Interactive system

Graphic system Images

Interface

Contours

PlotsGeographic

display…. Sat. fax …. TlgP

DataSet/database

Algorithms , labels , etc

Vector tools

Symbols

I/O SystemFile DB LOG

Projections

1.3 Micaps3.1 Main 1.3 Micaps3.1 Main FunctionsFunctions• An interactive computer system that

integrates all meteorological, satellite, and radar data into one computer workstation.

• Allows forecasters the interactive capability to view, analyze, combine, and manipulate graphical and alphanumeric weather data.

• Provides effective means for forecasters to prepare and issue forecasts.

Main interface:Main interface:

Property window

Layer window

TyphoonTool box

Title bar Menu Tool bar

Display set window

Display area

2. Typhoon Forecast 2. Typhoon Forecast Operational System (TFOS):Operational System (TFOS):

Typhoon component

2.1 Motivation of the 2.1 Motivation of the componentcomponent• The purpose of this component is to adequateThe purpose of this component is to adequate

ly make use of the Micaps multiple functions aly make use of the Micaps multiple functions and provide typhoon-forecasters with a complend provide typhoon-forecasters with a complete operational work platform. It can get the rete operational work platform. It can get the real and forecast data from other typhoon forecal and forecast data from other typhoon forecast centers timely and display it in favorable aast centers timely and display it in favorable and convenient ways. nd convenient ways.

• This system is developed in program language This system is developed in program language C#.NET and use SQL databaseC#.NET and use SQL database

2.2 Data Sources2.2 Data Sources• One of this component data source is the One of this component data source is the

real-time TC warning message files from real-time TC warning message files from other typhoon forecast centers. The other typhoon forecast centers. The component can update the typhoon track component can update the typhoon track database by searching the usable data database by searching the usable data from the message files timely. The real from the message files timely. The real track of TC displaying and the forecast track of TC displaying and the forecast making are all based on the database. making are all based on the database.

• The second data source is the history The second data source is the history annual track data complied by Shanghai annual track data complied by Shanghai Typhoon Institute and it can be used to Typhoon Institute and it can be used to search analogical history tracks.search analogical history tracks.

2.3 Real Track Display2.3 Real Track DisplayTFOS includes 5 main functions.

The first is real-time track display.

The display is on the base of real track database, where the series number and CMA number of every TC is authorized.

When the strength of one TC reaches TS,

CMA will give it a CMA number. But before then, how to identify one

TD?

TCs Identification:TCs Identification:• Within 0h~36h, if the distance between a new TC Within 0h~36h, if the distance between a new TC

record’s position and any former record’s position record’s position and any former record’s position less than the corresponding minimum distance, less than the corresponding minimum distance, we consider they are the same one TC and they we consider they are the same one TC and they share a same series number. Otherwise, it’s a share a same series number. Otherwise, it’s a new TC and gets a new series number. new TC and gets a new series number.

Mi ni mum Di stance (km)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108

120

Ti me di ff erence (hour)

Among 1980 ～ 2007 years

Exceptional cases in 28 years:Exceptional cases in 28 years: 8225 8225 、、 8226 90048226 9004 、、 90059005

Time difference:

18~36h

Minimum distance:

about 200km

In these exceptional cases, it needs us to mend it by handwork.

Series number in the real-Series number in the real-time track database:time track database:

Centers and Methods:Centers and Methods:

• BABJ: Beijing China Subjective BABJ: Beijing China Subjective • VHHH: Hongkong China SubjectiveVHHH: Hongkong China Subjective• PGTW: America Subjective PGTW: America Subjective • RJTD: Japan SubjectiveRJTD: Japan Subjective• RKSL: Korea Subjective RKSL: Korea Subjective • TMBJ: Beijing Objective TMBJ: Beijing Objective • JTYM: Japan Typhoon Model JTYM: Japan Typhoon Model • JGSM: Japan Other ModelJGSM: Japan Other Model• BCGZ: Guangzhou China Subjective BCGZ: Guangzhou China Subjective • BCSH: Shanghai China SubjectiveBCSH: Shanghai China Subjective• SHOS: Shanghai China Objective SHOS: Shanghai China Objective • EGRR: UK ObjectiveEGRR: UK Objective

2.4 History Searches2.4 History SearchesThe left part controls the date and regions of the wanted history

tracks.

The above scroll bars set the start-end of years. System uses the track and strength database compiled by Shanghai Typhoon Institute, spanning from 19

49 to present.

The middle two set the TC’s birth date ranges, so as to identify the seasonal backgrou

nd.

A sample of history analogue searches. In the middle summer, most part of the stronger TCs which go by the way of near the Luzon Island and north of the Taiwan Island pushed forward NNE and affected the Korea Peninsula, though their strength got rather weaker then.

2.5 Forecast Error Statistics2.5 Forecast Error StatisticsSelect menu item

“Typhoon->FcstErr” to display the forecast errors of different centers and motheds, compared to their own observational values.

Click the “Form-statistics” panel or keep the checkbox “AutoOpenRecord” checked to get the detail in numb

ers.

2.6 Interactive Forecast 2.6 Interactive Forecast MakingMaking

System let you move the mouse to “find” the wanted TC , appoint the current position and select the forecast times. Then use the mouse to modify (drag) the

positions of every forecast time.

At last, enter the TC forecast issue and release window.

When every thing is ok, you can click the “ok” button to see the encoded text files. “CreateFax” function creates a fax picture file and “SendFax” sends it to CMA database for dis

semination.

Probability (70%) Circles:Probability (70%) Circles:

Probability (70%) Circles can also be figured out. When forecast making is well done, you can get the probability circles by changing the value of the item “PlotSetup” in the property window to “True” and the system will popup a property-setting dialog window. Confirm the setting

and the circles will appear in the display area.

2.7 Strike Probability2.7 Strike Probability

Here shows a example of a

“strike probability” method in

typhoon forecast.

The numbers in the pictures are percentages of

strike probability to local site. The

strike radius is set to 120 km. Please see the detail in relative articles.

This is real time analyses. I wish this TFOS can help our typhoon forecasters to do more.

Thanks for attention! Thanks for attention!

Your comments and advices Your comments and advices are welcome!are welcome!