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    Our world has seen fundamental and pervasive change in the last 50 years.National economies are increasingly integrated in a global economic structurewhere all the elements needed to produce a final good or serviceproduction ofinputs, design, assembly, management, marketing, savings for investmentmay besourced from around the globe in a system held together by powerfulcommunications and information technologies. The trend toward globalization has

    been driven in part by these new technologies, and in part by reduced barriers tointernational trade and investment flows. The result has been a steady increase inthe importance of international trade in the global economy: in the last 50 years,while the global economy quintupled, world trade grew by a factor of 14.

    Another important trend is increasing inequity; the benefits of growth have been

    unevenly spread. Although average global income now exceeds $5,000 US perperson a year, 1.3 billion people still survive on incomes of less than a dollar a day.The world's three richest people have a combined wealth greater than the GDPs ofthe 48 least developed countries. And the growing inequality between and withinnations shows no signs of abating.

    In the last 50 years, the world has also seen enormous environmental change.Global carbon dioxide emissions have quadrupled, and the steady increase innitrogen releases from cars and fertilizers is creating deserts of lifelessness in ouroceans and lakes. One-quarter of the world's fish stocks are depleted, and another

    44 per cent are being fished at their biological limits. In 30 years, if current trendscontinue, two-thirds of the world will live with "water stress"having less than1,000 litres of water per person a year. Daily, 25,000 people die because ofdiseases caused by poor water management. A quarter of the world's mammalspecies are at significant risk of extinction. Such environmental damage has beendriven at least in part by our increasing numberspopulation has increased about2 times since 1950, to over 6 billion in 1999.

    The institutions for addressing such problems have also evolved. In the last 15years alone 11 major multilateral environmental agreements have entered intoforce, dealing with such issues as ozone depletion, transport of hazardous waste,and migratory species. At the regional or bilateral level roughly a thousand morehave entered into force, constituting an enormous and complex body ofenvironmental law. At the national level, regulators have moved from blanket"command and control" solutions to a mixed bag of tools that includes market-

    based incentives such as pollution charges and taxes. For select problems the result

    CHAPTER 1INTRODUCTION OF TRENDS IN GLOBAL TRADE

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    has been marked by environmental improvement, but for many more thediscouraging trends continue.

    We live in a world that is highly interconnected by a bewildering array of complexeconomic transactions, social and environmental problems, and international

    political collaborations and conflicts. Examples from global economics are foundin the news every day. A decision by American policymakers to subsidize the

    production of ethanol, a form of gasoline containing an additive produced fromcorn, is seen by many as a key reason that grain prices are high around the world.The spectacular emergence of China as a major exporter of manufactured goodshas affected wages in both rich and poor countries. As large corporations, such asMicrosoft, Intel, Toyota, General Electric, and Siemens have expanded theirinvestments in affiliates in many nations around the world, they have built global

    production networks that share technological knowledge across locations to

    produce increasingly complex goods that could be sold anywhere. Today, a majorcultural product, such as a Hollywood movie or a jazz bands latest compact disk,is likely to employ creative personnel from around the world, with variouscomponents of the product recorded, mixed or edited in different locations. Theimportance of international connections in trade, investment, and skilled servicescane illustrated by considering the apparently simple act of making and bringing tomarket an item of apparel, say a fashionable woolen mens suit. The initial task is

    to design the suit, a highly creative activity that generally takes place in theheadquarters of a major fashion label, such as Armani or Hugo Boss. Beyond that,the firm must locate reliable suppliers of raw wool, which could be farmers in NewZealand, Argentina, Scotland, or elsewhere. The wool needs to be spun into yarnand then woven into finished fabrics, tasks that are likely to be done in low-wageeconomies with abundant labor, such as Vietnam or Bangladesh, both majorcenters of fabric

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    The modern system of international environmental management dates to the 1972

    United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm.Several international environmental agreements, in particular some on marine

    pollution, predate the Stockholm Conference but this first major environmentalevent triggered a flurry of activity at national and international levels, as countriesand other international organizations responded to the emerging challenges ofenvironmental management at all levels. The Stockholm Conference also

    pioneered new forms of public participation in a United Nations conference,establishing links between the formal process and the informal parallel NGO

    process.

    The Stockholm Conference led to the establishment of the United NationsEnvironment Programme, headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya. UNEP was to act as acatalyst for the environment in the United Nations system, but its means weremodest compared with the dimensions of its task. Over the years, however, UNEPhas launched a significant number of international agreements, and today hasadministrative responsibility for seven major conventions as well as many regionalagreements. It has also acted as the environmental conscience of the United

    Nations system.

    It soon became obvious that the Stockholm Conference's focus on the environmentwithout due concern for development was not enough for the long-termadvancement of the international environmental agenda. In 1985 the United

    Nations established the World Commission on Environment and Development,which issued its report, Our common future, in 1987. This report first articulatedthe concept of sustainable development systematically (see Box 2-1). This in turn

    became the basis for a major review of all international environmental activities inthe United Nations through the United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment, held in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. UNCED articulated anambitious program of sustainable development, contained in the final Conferencedocument, known as Agenda 21. The Rio Conference helped establish the United

    Nations Commission on Sustainable Development and reaffirmed the role of theGlobal Environment Facility, thus widening the organizational basis for theenvironment and sustainable development within the United Nations system.UNCED was the fulcrum on which states were able to conclude the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Diversity, after

    CHAPTER 2ORIGIN OF GLOBAL TRADE

    http://www.iisd.org/trade/handbook/2_1.htm#2_1http://www.iisd.org/trade/handbook/2_1.htm#2_1http://www.iisd.org/trade/handbook/2_1.htm#2_1http://www.iisd.org/trade/handbook/2_1.htm#2_1
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    short and very intense negotiations. UNCED also pioneered innovative ways forthe public to participate in intergovernmental processes.

    International environmental regimes involve complex interactions between theparties, their subnational jurisdictions, their citizens and, sometimes, otherstakeholders. In practice it often takes several rounds of negotiation before aneffective regime emerges. Even then, implementing an MEA at the national leveland monitoring its progress at the international level are not simple matters.Among other things they require continual adjustment of the regimethe result ofintensive further research on the environmental problem, and on the regime'seffectivenessand of public debate on the results of the research.

    International environmental regimes are based on consent. Only the PICConvention has an elaborate dispute settlement structure, reflecting the fact that it

    is designed primarily to manage trade in certain hazardous substances rather thanprotect a specific environmental resource. It is widely recognized that coercion isnot a sound basis for environmental policy. Therefore, just as countries usecriminal penalties to enforce environmental laws only in cases of extremedisregard, so too do international environmental regimes use coercive disputesettlement only on rare occasions. Most of these cases tend to be disputes overshared waters in regional or bilateral agreements.

    Transparency and participation are arguably the most important implementationtools of international environmental regimes but implementation may need the help

    of an arm's-length agency. Since NGOs can go where governments sometimes fearto tread, they can be critical of countries' internal implementation of MEAs andexert pressure on their own governments for good faith compliance. Scientifically

    based assessments of environmental developments provide the foundation for mostof these agreements, and all of this activity depends on a free flow of informationand ready access to decision-making in the regime

    Although the crisis had its origins primarily in the United States (US), developingcountries have been hit especially hard. The World Bank estimates that theeconomic downturn will add an additional 53 million people to the ranks of thoseliving on less than USD 1.25 a day and 64 million to those living on less than USD2 a day (World Bank 2009b). Exports from the developing world were projected tofall by 33% in 2009, as the foreign demand that had underpinned the growth ofmany countries evaporates.

    Sadly, it is the less successful developing country exporters, the very countries thatwere largely left out of the export boom of the past three decades, that fared the

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    worst. Londons Centre for Economic Policy Research demonstrates that although

    China, India and Brazil saw exports decline by between 19% and 33% in thesecond half of 2008, countries not belonging to the top 20 developing countryexporters (for those where data are available) saw exports fall by even more(Hufbauer and Stephenson 2009). Ecuador and Zambia, for instance, saw exportsdrop by over 50%. In volume terms too, including for manufactures, thesegenerally poorer countries are doing worse than the 20 most successful developingcountry exporters. And people in those countries are likely to be particularlyvulnerable to still-high food prices and declining remittances from abroad.

    At the time of writing in October 2009 there was an increasing sense that acatastrophic collapse of the global financial system had been averted, althoughsome experts remain wary of a double-dip recession. In its World EconomicOutlook, released in October 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised

    its growth estimates for 2010 upwards from April 2009. Rich country outputshould increase by 1.7% for advanced countries in 2010, according to the IMF.The figure for emerging market and developing countries was 5.5%, for a globalaverage of 3.2%. However, the IMF warned that much of this growth was theresult of government spending and emphasized risks arising from high governmentdebt (IMF 2009). The context for global trade in 2009 was dominated by theworlds most severe financial and economic crisis since the 1930s. Global

    economic output shrank for the first time since the Second World War. Growth inthe developing world as a whole remained positive but was far below the levelsseen in recent years.

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    Introduction

    India's trade has generally grown at a faster rate compared to the growth of GDPover the past two decades. With the liberalization since 1991 in particular, theimportance of international trade in Indias economy has grown considerably. As a

    result the ratio of international trade to GDP has gone up from 14 per cent in 1980to nearly 20 per cent towards the end of the decade of 1990s. Given the trends ofglobalization and liberalization, the openness of Indian economy is expected togrow further in the coming two decades. The more exact magnitude of India's tradein 2020 and its proportion to India's national income would be determined by avariety of factors. Many of these factors are in the nature of external shocks andare beyond the control of national policy making. One illustration is the recentsurge in the crude oil prices in the international market to unprecedented levels that

    have impacted the countrys imports in a significant manner. In addition, theimplementation of various WTO agreements are likely to affect the India's trade.India's trade is also likely to be affected by various bilateral/ regional preferentialtrade arrangements that have been concluded and those that might take shape in thecoming years.

    This paper attempts to provide a mapping of different factors that are likely toshape the patterns and magnitudes of India's imports and exports over the coming

    two decades. These factors are classified into three, namely:

    1) factors affecting the demand for India's exports of goods and services;2) factors affecting the supply of India's exports of goods and services; and3) factors affecting the demand for India's imports.

    The supply of imports may be assumed to be elastic and hence is not discussed.

    The structure of the paper is as follows. Section 1 maps out various factorsaffecting demand for Indias exports, Section 2, factors affecting supply of Indias

    exports. Section 3 lists the factors that are likely to affect demand for Indiasimports. Section 4 briefly summarizes emerging patterns of Indias comparativeadvantage in exports of good and services. Section 5 makes some concludingremarks.

    CHAPTER 3TRENDS IN GLOBAL TRADE IN INDIA

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    1. Factors Affecting the Demand for Exports

    There is amltitude of factors that are likely to affect the demand for India's exportsof goods and services as seen below.

    1.1 Growth Performance of World Economy and Key Trading RegionsThe growth rates of the world economy and world trade do influence the overalldemand for India's exports. For instance, the rates of stagnation in the growth rateof world trade in the period since 1996 have affected the growth of India's exports.Some broad correspondence between the growth rates of world trade and Indianexports is evident from Figure 1. Depending upon the intensities of India's traderelations the growth prospects in these specific regions may also affect the demandfor India's exports. The regions which may be particularly important for India's

    exports include North America, the European Union, Middle East, East andSoutheast Asia and South Asia. Therefore, it will be important to watch the growthoutlook and projections for these regions.

    Figure 1: Growth Rates of World Trade and India's Exports Over the 1990s

    Source: RIS on the basis of WEO Database of the IMF

    1.1.1. World Output and Trade at the Turn of the Century and the Outlook

    The world economy in 2000 seems to have fully recovered from the slow down of1998-1999 on account of the East Asian crisis. The estimated world output growthof 4.8 percent in 2000 is highest since 1988 and of world trade at 12.4 percent ishighest of the past 25 years (Table 1, Figure 1). The impressive recovery of theworld economy and world trade in the early part of 2000 generated optimism all

    -10

    -5

    0

    510

    15

    20

    25

    1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

    Percentag

    e

    India's exports World Trade

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    around as countries expected to benefit from favourable spillovers in the form ofrise in demand for their exports. However, the optimism has proved to be shortlived. It has been partly tarnished somewhat by the crude oil prices hitting the roofin the third quarter of 2000 and adversely affecting the outlook of many regions

    besides raising the threats of inflation in different parts of the world. Furthermoreand more importantly, the emerging trends confirm that a trend of slow down wasset in the US economy in the third quarter of the 2000. Hence, fears of a hardlanding of the US economy in 2001 have continued to grow. A scenario of hardlanding of the US economy in 2001 is thus likely to short-circuit the rebound of theworld economy of 1999-2000, even though the major European Union economiesare improving their performance. The Japanese economy continues to remainsluggish.

    The slow down of the US economy has a compounded effect on the growth of theworld economy by adversely affecting the demand for the products of partnercountries as well. As a result the growth rate of world output is likely to slowdown in 2001 from the levels reached in 2000 to 3.2. The world economy isexpected to pick up moderately to 3.9 per cent in 2002. The effect of theimpending slow down is more severe on the growth rate of world trade which islikely to reduce by nearly half from the rate achieved in 2000 to around 6.5 percent in 2001 and 2001. In the light of recent trends, the outlook for the worldeconomy and trade growth over the next ten years could be taken at 3 and 6 per

    cent respectively.

    Table 1: Annual Growth Rates of World Output and World Trade

    (Percentage p.a.)

    1991 1992 1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997 1998

    1999 2000 2001p

    2002p

    World RealGDP

    1.5 2 2.3 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.1 2.6 3.5 4.8 3.2 3.9

    World Trade ingoods andservices

    4.5 4.5 3.8 9 8.9 6.7 9.8 4.3 5.3 12.4 6.7 6.5

    Source: RIS on the basis of WEO Database of the IMF.

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    Table 2 summarizes the growth rates of output in key regions of the world andprojections for the coming years.

    Table 2: Growth Outlook in Indias Major Trade Partners

    Region/ country WB/GEPProjections(12/00)

    IMF/WEOProjections(05/01)

    1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2001 2002

    World 2.6 3.5 4.8 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.9

    United States 4.4 4.2 5.0 3.2 2.9 1.5 2.5

    European Union 2.7 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.8

    Japan -2.5 0.8 1.7 2.1 2.2 0.6 1.5

    DevelopingCountries

    3.5 3.8 5.8 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.6

    Developing Asia 4.1 6.1 6.9 5.9 6.3

    East Asia 5* -8.2 6.7 6.9 5.5 5.1 3.4# 4.7#

    South Asia 5.6 5.7 6.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.9

    Middle East 0.8 5.4 2.9 4.6

    Latin America andthe Caribbean

    2.0 0.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.4

    Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.4

    *Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. #ASEAN-4.

    Source: RIS based on World Bank (2001), IMF (2001).

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    1.2 WTO AgreementsSince the implementation of the Final Act of the Uruguay Round in 1995, theWTO Agreements have become important factors in determining the patterns ofworld trade. Their full impact is not yet obvious as many provisions of theseagreements are yet to be implemented because of the transition period provided.Most of the remaining provisions of the WTO agreements would be implementedin the coming five years. Therefore, the patterns of trade in 2020 would have to bespeculated keeping in mind the impact of full implementation of the WTOagreements. Some of the agreements which are likely to affect India's exports arethe following.

    1.2.1 Agreement on Textiles and ClothingThe Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) proposes to phase out the

    MFA quotas imposed by the developed countries on the imports of textilesand clothing from developing countries over a period of 10 years ending on31st December 2004. Given the fact that India has substantially fulfilled herquota for the products coming under MFA, it may appear that the phasingout of these quotas would help in the expansion of exports. However, theimpact of the phase out is likely to be a mixed bag. This is because withMFA phase out, Indian exporters would be competing directly with otherexporters of textiles and garments such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Pakistan,Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Macau, Philippines, Sri

    Lanka, Bangladesh, among others. Therefore, while ATC provides anopportunity to Indian exporters to expand their exports of textiles andgarments by removing the quota restrictions, it also poses a challenge ofincreased international competition. Some of them will enjoy preferentialaccess to the importing countries due to their least developed country (LDC)status such as Bangladesh.

    There are apprehensions on the full benefits of phase out being available todeveloping countries. As such the schedule of the phase-out has been back-loaded over a ten-year long phase-out period. The industrialized countriesmay use other protectionist measures such as anti-dumping to preventmarket access after the phase-out of quotas. A large number of textiles andclothing products already face tariffs in the range of 15 to 30 per cent in theQuad countries (World Bank, 2000). Some attempts of restricting them with

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    anti-dumping duties have already been made against these exports includingthose from India.

    Another factor that will affect the competitiveness of Indian exports oftextiles and garments in the post-MFA regime is the availability of tradepreferences to emerging competitors of India. For instance, Mediterraneancountries such as Turkey, Cyprus and Malta and Central and EasternEuropean countries enjoy free trade agreement with the European Unionahead of their full membership. The Caribbean countries enjoy a similar

    preferential access to the United States market under the Caribbean BasinInitiative (CBI). Mexico enjoys a privileged access to the North AmericanMarket as a member of NAFTA. These trade preferences have alreadyresulted into diversion of trade in textiles and clothing to these countries. For

    instance, Mexican exports of clothing to the United States have grown at therate of 27 and 15 percent in 1998 and 1999, respectively with the growth rateof exports to Canada in these years being 30 percent and 26 percent,respectively. Similarly, exports of clothing from Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland,Romania, Turkey to the European Union in 1998 have grown at 26 percent,14 percent, 11 percent, 23 percent and 11 percent, respectively (WTO,2000).

    The ability of Indian exporters to take advantage of phase out the MFAquotas by 2004 will depend upon a number of factors such as their ability toenhance overall international competitiveness with productivity andefficiency improvements, quality control, ability to quickly come up withnew designs, ability to respond to changes in consumer preferences rapidlyand the ability to move up the value chain by building brand names andacquiring channels of distribution to more than outweigh the advantages ofher competitors. The reservation of the garment industry for small-scalesector has affected capital investment, modernization and automation in thesector in the country. Although the small sector operation has impartedflexibility, it has prevented exploitation of economies of scale and scope bythe Indian industry. The new Textiles Policy takes care of some of theconcerns. It remains to be seen if the Indian industry will be able to exploitthe opportunities provided by the increased market access with the MFA

    phase-out.

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    1.2.2.Agreement on Agriculture (AoA):The AoA proposes to liberalize the international trade in agriculture byrestricting the agricultural subsidies provided by governments to the farmers,reduction in export subsidies in agriculture, removal of QRs andestablishment of tariff rate quotas applicable to trade in agriculturalcommodities. In general Indias obligations under AoA are limited given the

    low level of agricultural subsidies compared to EU and the US. It isbelieved that implementation of the AoA commitments by industrializedcountries will benefit countries like India in terms of market access for someagricultural commodities. However, the implementation of the commitmentson the part of industrialized countries so far does not provide any room foroptimism. The extent of subsidies given by industrialized countries haveactually increased over the past few years as acknowledged by OECDreports. It is possible that in the coming years the provisions of the

    Agreement are implemented in the letter and spirit. The likely effect of thefull implementation on Indias trade is difficult to be speculated. However,

    one can have an idea about the likely scenario from efficiency indicators andincentive structure. Given lower than world prices of rice, wheat, maize,sorghum, chickpea and cotton in India, their exports may expand under theliberalised trade in agriculture. Hence the area under cultivation for thesecrops may increase since profitability and effective incentives will get tiltedin favour of these crops. The same is true for pearl millet, pigeonpea andsoyabean. However, production of oilseeds e.g. groundnut, rapeseed,mustard and sunflower, and pulses may be adversely affected in a free-tradescenario given the lower world prices. Thus, the import dependence in edibleoils and pulses may increase.

    1.2.3.Anti-dumping RegulationsThe Indian exports of a number of commodities have been subjected to anti-dumping regulations by some of our important trading partners such as theUnited States and the European Union. The onslaught of the anti-dumping

    measures on Indian exports is likely to increase in future with the growingcompetitiveness of Indian products. In order to minimize their disruptiveeffect of these regulations on India's exports, the industry and governmentwill have to strengthen the machinery to counter such actions (Panchamukhi,2000).

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    1.2.4. Tariff Negotiations and New Trade Round

    Although the average tariff rates in the industrialized countries are low, theyhave high peak tariffs for certain products, some of which are of exportinterest to India such as textiles and garments, and agricultural commodities

    (see Table 3). Market access for these products could be facilitated by ourability to secure reduction in these tariffs in the industrialized countriesthrough future tariff negotiations in the WTO framework.

    Table 3 : Distribution of Tariff Peaks by Product Groups in Quad

    Countries

    Product group Total No. of Items No.

    ofpeak

    s

    Total

    Share

    inTotal

    (%)

    12-19%

    22-29%

    32-99%

    100-299

    %

    >=300%

    European Union

    Agricultural andfishery products (1-24)

    2779 544 331 313 31 2 1221 97.7

    Mineral products,fuels (25-27)

    257 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    Leather, textiles,clothing (41-43,50-64)

    1565 6 0 0 0 0 6 0.5

    Industrial products(28-96)

    7771 27 7 8 0 0 42 3.3

    ALL PRODUCTS (1-

    96)

    10807 571 338 341 31 2 1263 100

    Japan

    Agricultural andfishery products

    1897 204 299 111 81 65 760 85.1

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    Mineral products,fuels

    194 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    Leather, textiles,clothing

    2410 42 39 15 28 7 131 14.7

    Industrial products 6880 44 39 15 28 7 133 14.9

    ALL PRODUCTS 8971 248 338 126 109 72 893 100

    USA

    Agricultural andfishery products

    1779 138 70 99 15 11 333 36.6

    Mineral products,

    fuels

    183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    Leather, textiles,clothing

    1814 374 110 40 0 0 524 57.4

    Industrial products 8123 407 127 45 0 0 579 63.4

    ALL PRODUCTS 10085 545 197 144 15 11 912 100

    Canada

    Agricultural andfishery products

    1429 65 10 16 68 0 159 27.4

    Mineral products,fuels

    187 5 0 0 0 0 5 0.9

    Leather, textiles,clothing

    1209 320 27 0 0 0 347 60.1

    Industrial products 6791 374 39 0 0 0 413 71.6

    ALL PRODUCTS 8407 444 49 16 68 0 577 100

    N.B. HS Chapters are given in parentheses.

    Source: RIS based on UNCTAD/WTO (2000) The Post-Uruguay Round TariffEnvironment For Developing Country Exports: Tariff Peaks and Tariff Escalation,UNCTAD, Geneva (TD/B/COM.1/14/Rev.1; 28 January 2000)

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    1.2.5. Trade Preferences for the Least Developed Countries

    One emerging development in the WTO system has been the tendency todivide the developing countries with the offer of special trade preferencesfor the least developed countries. A sizeable proportion of India's exportsstill comprise labour and resource intensive goods that are also exported bysome of the least developed countries. If successful these preferences havethe prospects of diverting trade from India to the least developed countries.The potential of these trade preferences for adversely affecting Indiasexports needs to be kept in mind.

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    In the context of the global crisis international merchandise trade registered itsgreatest plunge since the Second World War: Between the fall of 2008 and the

    spring of 2009 global trade collapsed by 20 per cent in volume. Having initiallyrebounded sharply beginning in mid 2009, growth in international merchandisetrade then slowed again in the course of 2010. While regaining its pre-crisis peaklevel in that year, the global crisis appears to have left a marked impact on thedynamism of global trade, keeping the volume of global trade well below its pre-crisis growth trajectory(Chart) with global prospects dimming by year-end 2011.

    Apart from remaining unfinished, the trade recovery has also been rather uneven.By the end of 2011, in developed countries as well as in South-East Europe and the

    Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where the trade collapse had beensharpest, merchandise trade in volume terms has yet to even reclaim its pre-crisislevel. By contrast, the volume of both imports and exports in most groups ofdeveloping countries had already exceeded their pre-crisis peak in the course of2010, with East Asia, China in particular, leading the expansion.

    Globalization features the rise in global exports relative to global income, whileindividual countries see their respective exports and imports rise as shares ofnational income(Motion chart). In other words, a rising proportion of global

    production of goods and services is being traded across borders rather than sold at

    home. The global crisis has brought the long-run trend of rising global integrationthrough trade to a halt, at least temporarily. The pre-crisis trend toward moreopenness and ever-deeper trade integration might well firmly reestablish itself indue course. But persistence or trend reversal seem also possible. At a time of highunemployment, fiscal austerity, and complaints of currency wars, the threat ofrising trade protectionism is looming large.

    The global crisis and uneven trade recovery have reinforced the ongoing shift inbalance in the world economy, featuring the relative decline of developed

    countries(Chart). In 2010 the value of total merchandise exports from allcountries of the world was $15 trillion (in current United States dollars), of whichthe share of developed countries was 54 percent, down from 60 percent in 2005.As the worlds leading merchandise exporter since 2009, Chinas share of world

    exports climbed to 10 per cent in 2010, ahead of the United States (8 per cent),Germany (8 per cent), and Japan (5 per cent)(Table). On the import side, the

    CHAPTER 4IMPORTANCE

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    ranking still shows the United States in first place (13 per cent), followed by China(9 per cent), Germany (7 per cent), and Japan (4.5 per cent)(Table).

    The shifting global balance is also visible in the changing distribution of exports bydestination, featuring the rising importance of trade among developing countries.The rise in South-South trade has been especially pronounced in East Asia and islinked to the gain in prominence of global supply chains.

    While developing countries as a whole have become the key driving force behindglobal trade dynamics in the 2000s, and especially so since the recovery from theglobal trade collapse in 2008-2009, contributing 54 per cent to the overall reboundfrom it, performance varies considerably between regions and countries within theaggregate. Especially successful were developing economies in Asia. In general,

    progress in least developed countries (LDCs) and other low-income economies,after having fallen behind since the 1960s, has picked up somewhat, as they couldrecapture some of the lost ground since the mid-2000s. Helped by improvements incommodity prices, the export share of the LDCs, the majority of which are in sub-Saharan Africa and commodity-dependent, rose from 0.6 percent in 2001 to 1.1

    percent in 2010(Chart). Yet commodity price increases have been a mixedblessing even to LDCs, proving harmful rather than beneficial to some. Especiallylow-income, food-deficit countries that had suffered severely in the food crisis of2007-2008 were again affected negatively in 2010-2011.

    While an upward trend in world primary commodity prices asserted itself in the2000s, reversing the prior downward trend that had been in place since 1995, the

    period surrounding the global crisis witnessed commodity prices taking a roller-coaster ride. The boom years since 2002 ended with a severe nosedive from their

    peak level of mid-2008, followed by a sharp rebound that took prices back to 2007levels by early 2011(Chart), when a sizeable correction began together with

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    soaring volatility. Heightened market instability and price volatility(Table) havebecome the norm as uncertainty about the global recovery is weighing on marketparticipants minds.

    Commodity price developments since 2002 came along with sizeable changesto terms of trade. In general, countries exporting oil and mining products sawsubstantial terms-of-trade gains, while those exporting mainly manufactures andimporting raw materials, especially oil, experienced losses. Countries with morediversified exports and exporters of agriculture products experienced relativestability(Chart) while manufactured goods exporters were confronted with adecline trend. Terms of trade changes can have substantial impacts on economiesdepending on their openness, in particular, either adding or subtracting from realdomestic income. In the aggregate, all the developing regions gained, with theexception of East, South and South-East Asia (where manufactures constitute the

    largest share of exports). Wide differences exist within each region, however.

    http://opendefinitions%28%27termsoftrade%27%29/http://opendefinitions%28%27termsoftrade%27%29/http://opendefinitions%28%27termsoftrade%27%29/
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    The basics of the WTO

    The foundations of the international trade regime date back to 1947 when theGeneral Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was concluded. This Agreement,salvaged from an unratified larger agreement called the International TradeOrganization, was one piece of the so-called Bretton-Woods system, designed inthe post-World War II environment to promote and manage global economicdevelopment. (The International Monetary Fund and International Bank forReconstruction and Developmentthe World Bankwere the other two main

    pieces.) GATT established the two basic directions for the trade regime:

    Developing requirements to lower and eliminate tariffs, and Creating obligations to prevent or eliminate other types of impediments or

    barriers to trade (non-tariff barriers).

    From 1948 to 1994, eight negotiating "Rounds" took place under the auspices ofGATT to further develop the trade regime along both these lines. Early roundsfocused more on tariffs alone, but non-tariff barriers have since come to the fore.

    The last of these negotiations, the "Uruguay Round," concluded in 1994.TheMarrakech Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization marked the

    end of the Round. It also created the World Trade Organization. In this section, thebasic elements of the WTO and its law are identified. These include the mostimportant components, functions, principles and agreements that provide thefoundation for today's modern trade regime.

    The World Trade Organization came into force on January 1, 1995, fully replacingthe previous GATT Secretariat as the organization responsible for administeringthe international trade regime. The basic structure of the WTO includes thefollowing bodies

    The M inisteri al Conference, which is composed of international tradeministers from all member countries. This is the governing body of theWTO, responsible for setting the strategic direction of the organization andmaking all final decisions on agreements under its wings. The MinisterialConference meets at least once every two years. Although voting can take

    place, decisions are generally taken by consensus, a process that can at timesbe difficult, particularly in a body composed of 136 very different members.

    CHAPTER 5IMPORTANCE OF WTO

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    The General Council, composed of senior representatives (usuallyambassador level) of all members. It is responsible for overseeing the day-to-day business and management of the WTO, and is based at the WTOheadquarters in Geneva. In practice, this is the key decision-making arm ofthe WTO for most issues. Several of the bodies described below reportdirectly to the General Council.

    The Trade Policy Review Bodyis also composed of all the WTO members,and oversees the Trade Policy Review Mechanism, a product of the UruguayRound. It periodically reviews the trade policies and practices of all member

    states. These reviews are intended to provide a general indication of howstates are implementing their obligations, and to contribute to improvedadherence by the WTO parties to their obligations.

    The Dispute Settl ement Bodyis also composed of all the WTO members. Itoversees the implementation and effectiveness of the dispute resolution

    process for all WTO agreements, and the implementation of the decisions onWTO disputes. Disputes are heard and ruled on by dispute resolution panels

    chosen individually for each case, and the permanent Appellate Body thatwas established in 1994. Dispute resolution is mandatory and binding on allmembers. A final decision of the Appellate Body can only be reversed by afull consensus of the Dispute Settlement Body.

    The Council s on Tr ade in Goods and Trade in Servicesoperate under themandate of the General Council and are composed of all members. They

    provide a mechanism to oversee the details of the general and specific

    agreements on trade in goods (such as those on textiles and agriculture) andtrade in services. There is also a Council for the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, dealing with just thatagreement and subject area.

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    The Secretariat and Director Generalof the WTO reside in Geneva, in theold home of GATT. The Secretariat now numbers just under 550 people, andundertakes the administrative functions of running all aspects of theorganization. The Secretariat has no legal decision-making powers but

    provides vital services, and often advice, to those who do. The Secretariat isheaded by the Director General, who is elected by the members.

    The Committee on Trade and Development and Commi tteeon Trade andEnvironment are two of the several committees continued or establishedunder theMarrakech Agreementin 1994. They have specific mandates tofocus on these relationships, which are especially relevant to how the WTOdeals with sustainable development issues. The Committee on Trade and

    Development was established in 1965. The forerunner to the Committee onTrade and Environment (the Group on Environmental Measures andInternational Trade) was established in 1971, but did not meet until 1992.Both Committees are now active as discussion grounds but do not actuallynegotiate trade rules. The mandate of the CTE is discussed in greater detail

    Functions of the WTO

    The main functions of the WTO can be described in very simple terms. These are:

    To oversee implementing and administering WTO agreements; To provide a forum for negotiations; and To provide a dispute settlement mechanism.

    The goals behind these functions are set out in the preamble to the MarrakechAgreement. These include:

    Raising standards of living; Ensuring full employment; Ensuring large and steadily growing real incomes and demand; and Expanding the production of and trade in goods and services.

    These objectives are to be achieved while allowing for the optimal use of theworld's resources in accordance with the objective of sustainable development, andwhile seeking to protect and preserve the environment. The preamble alsospecifically mentions the need to assist developing countries, especially the leastdeveloped countries, secure a growing share of international trade.

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    The core principles

    The WTO aims to achieve its objectives by reducing existing barriers to trade andby preventing new ones from developing. It seeks to ensure fair and equalcompetitive conditions for market access, and predictability of access for all tradedgoods and services. This approach is based on two fundamental principles: thenational-treatment and most-favoured nation principles. Together, they form thecritical "discipline" ofnon-discrimination at the core of trade law.

    The principle of national treatment requires, in its simplest terms, that thegoods and services of other countries be treated in the same way as those ofyour own country.

    The most-favoured nation principle requires that if special treatment is givento the goods and services of one country, they must be given to all WTO

    member countries. No one country should receive favours that distort trade.

    Members follow these principles of non-discrimination among "like products"those of a similar quality that perform similar functions in a similar way. They are,of course, free to discriminate among products that are not like-foreign orangesneed not be treated the same as domestic carrots. Note, however, that products thatare not physically or chemically identical can still be considered like products if,among other things, the products have the same end use, perform to the samestandards and require nothing different for handling or disposal. The "like productstest," which tries to determine which products are and are not like, is thus of central

    importance. These two complementary principles and the notion of "like products"are discussed further

    Sustainable development: Some argue that the concept of sustainable developmenthas now emerged as a principle to guide the interpretation of the WTOAgreements, though not at the level of the core principles of non-discrimination. Inthe 1998 Appellate Body ruling in the so-called shrimp-turtle case, it was madeclear that the interpretation of WTO law should reflect the Uruguay Round'sdeliberate inclusion of the language and concept of sustainable development. Thisruling may have moved the WTO toward requiring the legal provisions of itsagreements to be interpreted and applied in light of the principles and legalstandards of sustainable development.

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    In the introduction we argued that there is no simple pattern to the relationship

    between trade, environment and development. Depending on the sector, thecountry, the markets and prevailing policies, trade and trade liberalization may begood or bad for the environment and development. In fact, they will usually be

    both at oncegood in some ways, bad in others.

    This chapter illustrates the point by listing and explaining the complex physicaland economic linkages that bind trade and sustainable development. For the most

    part, these consist of the impacts of trade on environment and development. Thenext chapter, on legal and regulatory linkages, widens the scope to also include theimpacts of environmental concerns and environmental law on trade.

    Trade flows and trade liberalization have at least four types of physical andeconomic impacts on environment and development: product effects, technologyeffects, scale effects and structural effects.1 Each of these is examined in thefollowing pages.

    Product effects occur when the traded products themselves have an impact on theenvironment or development. On the positive side, trade may lead to spreading ofnew technologies for protecting the environment, such as microbial techniques forcleaning up oil spills. Or it may more rapidly spread goods or technologies thathave less environmental impactfor example, solar power technology or morefuel-efficient automobilesthan those currently used. Openness to trade andinvestment can also help contribute to development objectives, by facilitatingtransfer of new and improved technologies and management systems.

    On the negative side trade can facilitate international movement of goods that,from an environmental perspective, would best never be traded. With hazardouswastes and toxic materials, the environmental risks increase the further the goodsare transported, since spillage is always possible. As well, such "goods" may end

    up being dumped in countries without the technical or administrative capacity toproperly dispose of them, or even assess whether they should be accepted. Tradealso makes possible the over-exploitation of species to the point of extinctionthere is rarely enough domestic demand to create such pressure. The BaselConvention and CITES, discussed earlier, are MEAs that restrict such trade

    because of its negative direct effects.

    CHAPTER 6PHYSICAL AND ECONOMICAL LINKAGES

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    A subset of product effects, sometimes termed "technology effects," are associatedwith changes in the way products are made depending on the technology used.Technology effects stem from the way in which trade liberalization affectstechnology transfer and the production processes used to make traded goods.Positive technology effects result when the output of pollution per unit ofeconomic product is reduced. Foreign producers may transfer cleaner technologiesabroad when a trade measure or agreement results in a more open market and a

    business climate more conducive to investment. Trade-induced growth andcompetitive market pressures generated by liberalization can hasten processes ofcapital and technological modernization for all firms. Newly opened markets can

    provide the revenue and the income to allow firms to accelerate capital turnover,and invest in cleaner, more efficient plants, technologies and processes.

    On the other hand trade liberalization and an expanded marketplace may harm

    more environmentally friendly and socially valuable traditional productionmethods. Trade liberalization can also promote the spread and use of harmful, less-environmentally friendly technologies. Whether technology effects stemming fromliberalization have an overall positive or negative effect on the environment willdepend considerably on other conditions and policies in the marketplace thatdetermine availability and choice of those technologies (for example, price andnational environmental regulation). These effects are reflected again under theheading "imported efficiency

    Trade and trade liberalization can expand the level of economic activity possible

    by making that activity more efficient.Box 4-1explains the ways in which tradecan increase efficiency, producing more goods with the same given set of naturalresources, labour, machines and technology.

    This expansionessentially creating additional wealthcan have positiveeffectson the environment and development. It has obvious development benefits;although development is more than economic growth, such growth is essential fordevelopment in most Southern countries. We should note, however, threeimportant qualifications to this positive link between trade and development:

    First, distributional considerations matter. That is, if trade increases inequityby creating wealth that is mostly concentrated in the hands of the wealthy,then it works against important development objectives.

    Second, not everyone will benefit from trade liberalization; inherent in thewealth-creating process is destruction of inefficient firms and sectors.

    http://www.iisd.org/trade/handbook/4_1.htm#boxhttp://www.iisd.org/trade/handbook/4_1.htm#boxhttp://www.iisd.org/trade/handbook/4_1.htm#boxhttp://www.iisd.org/trade/handbook/4_1.htm#box
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    Third, the potential of trade to increase wealth is just that: potential. Toenjoy trade's full potential countries may need to devote, for example, alarge amount of resources to building capacity in their export sectors.

    Where trade creates wealth two types of environmental benefits may follow. First,increased efficiency can directly benefit the environment, since efficient firms needfewer natural resource inputs and produce less polluting waste. In this sense, the

    basis of comparative advantageefficient use of resourcesalso underlies thegoal of sustainable development.

    Second, efficiency can benefit the environment indirectly by making peoplewealthier, and thus more likely to demand stronger environmental protection. Thisis not to say that the poor do not value the environment; indeed, their poverty maymean they depend on it more directly than do the rich. But it may be a lower

    priority than it would for those with stable employment and adequate income, foodand housing. Much evidence suggests that richer economies will likely have lowerlevels of some harmful emissions than poorer ones (though this relationship doesnot hold for pollution and environmental degradation whose effects are felt faraway in time or in space, such as greenhouse gas emissions). Where tradealleviates extreme poverty, it may save people from a vicious cycle whereby theyare forced to degrade their environment to survive, in the process becomingincreasingly impoverished.

    An increased scale of economic activity can also have negativeenvironmental

    effects. Most economic activity damages the environment, whether in extractingraw materials, harvesting renewable resources, or in creating waste and pollution.Increasing the scale of economic activity means increasing the levels ofenvironmental damage, unless regulations are in place to ensure that the additionalactivities cause no harman unlikely scenario.

    Another possible negative effect stems from the additional wealth created bytradethe same wealth that, as noted above, can benefit the environment anddevelopment. For some types of pollution, increased wealth may mean more, notless pollution. The richer countries of the world, for example, have far higher percapita emissions of all types of greenhouse gases than do developing countries, andfar higher per capita emissions of such toxins as PCBs, dioxins and furans. Withenough wealth comes the opportunity to consume at levels and in ways that areworse for the environment.

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    The main goal of this handbook is to make the complex relationship between the

    environment and international trade more understandable and accessible to policy-makers, non-governmental organizations and the public. The book also aims todispel the idea that the relationship between, trade, the environment anddevelopment can easily be described as either negative or positive. It is animmensely complex interaction that varies from country to country, sector tosector, and firm to firm. There are both threats and opportunities in thisrelationship for countries, local communities and firms pursuing economicdevelopment and environmental protection.

    The challenge, for all these stakeholders, is to exploit the opportunities and reduce

    the threats, and in so doing to maximize the net positive contribution that trade canmake to sustainable development. A broader and clearer understanding of thelinkages between trade, environment and development among all stakeholders is a

    prerequisite for seizing those opportunities and reducing those threats.

    The conclusions that can be drawn from this handbook are essentially aboutresearch and consensus-building, enhancement of international co-operation, anddefining new and more balanced and participatory procedures for international

    policy-making on these issues. In particular, formal assessments of theenvironmental impacts of trade liberalization and the trade implications ofenvironmental policies will have to be undertaken. These assessments will have totake account of the interrelated economic and social effects of environmental andtrade policies, through integrated assessment techniques.

    Research and assessment need to be undertaken in a participatory manner thatincludes all the relevant stakeholders. At the national level this implies involvingcivil society as well as government officials; at the international level this impliesfinancial and technical assistance for developing countries and those witheconomies in transition to build their capacity to undertake this analysis. This

    assistance, and the broader awareness of the linkages it fosters, will help buildconsensus on the policy integration challenges that are faced, and the solutions thatwill then have to be developed at both national and international levels.

    International negotiations which lead to new trade agreements will also have to becharacterized by more balanced and equitable participation of developed anddeveloping countries, if those agreements are to accurately reflect the needs and

    CONCLUSION

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    conditions in all countries. We also hope that an enhanced understanding andawareness of trade, environment and development linkages will informimplementation of existing, and negotiation of new, multilateral environmentalagreements, enabling them better to respond to the needs and conditions incountries at differing levels of development.

    Achieving these objectives requires first a broader understanding of the linkagesbetween the environment and trade, and the policies designed to foster both. UNEPand IISD hope that this handbook will foster that broader understanding, and bothorganizations remain open to suggestions to improve the handbook in this regard,and offer their collaboration and partnership to the same end.

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    Expanding trade through innovation and the digital economy

    A total of 41 sessions will be devoted to the topic of trade and innovation.International organizations, trade experts, academics, business representatives,non-governmental organizations and government representatives will discusslinkages between trade and innovation. Topics for debate will include whethertechnological innovation has changed the way we trade, and if so, how? TheForum will also discuss whether trade has helped countries to innovate, howinnovation can enhance the trading capacities of developing countries, and howtrade can keep up with the rapid evolution of technology.

    Mr Roberto Azevdo, who begins his term of office as WTO Director-General on1 September 2013, will be joined by heads of agencies, trade experts and CEOs todiscuss different aspects of trade and innovation in the opening debate entitledHow can innovation foster growth and trade?

    Innovation and international competitiveness will be the theme of the debate on thesecond day of the Forum. High-level speakers will exchange views on how opentrade and innovation work together and how new technologies have changed thetraditional way of doing business.

    From :[email protected]

    ARTICLES

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    The Safety of Imported Foods

    The Food and Drug Administration proposednew rules last weekthat should go a

    long way toward ensuring the safety of imported foods. The need for strongerregulation is clear. Food imports have been soaring, inspections by the F.D.A. have

    been lagging, and imported foods have been blamed for a number of outbreaks of

    illness.In recent months, for example, pomegranate seeds from Turkey used in a

    berry mix sickened more than 150 people across the country with hepatitis A, and

    cucumbers imported from Mexico were linked to an outbreak of salmonella that

    made 84 people in 18 states ill.Some 15 percent of the food Americans eat is

    imported, more than double what it was a decade ago. That includes 50 percent of

    the fresh fruit and 20 percent of the fresh vegetables. The F.D.A. is able to inspect

    only a tiny percentage of these imports, less than 2 percent, at the point of entry.

    The new rules would shift the primary burden for safety to the companies that

    import the food. They would have to verify that their foreign suppliers were

    achieving the same level of safety as domestic growers and processors. The

    companies have the motivation (to reassure worried consumers) and the resources

    to prevent contaminated foods from entering the country in the first place, rather

    than responding to problems after an outbreak.

    The proposed rules had languished at the Office of Management and Budget untilthey were forced out by a court suit. The rules were praised by consumer groups

    and industry giants likeCargill. They, along with separate rules proposed in

    January for domestic producers, are open for comment for 120 days. Both should

    be given final approval.

    From :Meet The New York Timess Editorial Boardandwww.nytime.com

    http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm362610.htmhttp://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm362610.htmhttp://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm362610.htmhttp://www.cargill.com/http://www.cargill.com/http://www.cargill.com/http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/opinion/editorialboard.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/opinion/editorialboard.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/opinion/editorialboard.htmlhttp://www.nytime.com/http://www.nytime.com/http://www.nytime.com/http://www.nytime.com/http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/opinion/editorialboard.htmlhttp://www.cargill.com/http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm362610.htm
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