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Transcript of TX Houston
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8/3/2019 TX Houston
1/7
Today's Market
9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*
Houston
FHA Loan Limit
38%
*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only
Real estate remains a long-terminvestment: those who have owned fomore than 3 years have seen the equit
in their home grow
-16.0%
$2,267
U.S.
Price Activity
$169,267$159,500Current Median Home Price (2011 Q3)
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area
Local Market Report, Third Quarter 2011
Home Sales
State Existing Home Sales
(2011 Q3 vs 2010 Q3)
Conforming Loan Limit**
Local Trend
**Note: the 2009 loan limits for FHA and the GSEs were extended through 2010.
-$700
7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*
$25,200
1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2011 Q3) 0.4%
Texas
Prices are up from a year ago, but pricgrowth is slowing
18.4% 17.0%
$729,250
-0.4%3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2011 Q3)
-4.3%
3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*
The sales level is much higher than a
year ago and growing.
U.S.
$417,000
Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio
$417,000
not comparable
-$29,733
-$32,233
$22,000
Most buyers in this market have accesto government-backed financing$271,050
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000$180,000
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%10%
2011Q3
Q12010Q3
Q12009Q3
Q12008Q3
Q12007Q3
Q12006Q3
Q12005Q3
Q12004Q3
Q12003Q3
Q12002Q3
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth
0
100
200
300400
500
600
700
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011Q3
Q12010Q3
Q12009Q3
Q12008Q3
Q12007Q3
Q12006Q3
Q12005Q3
Q12004Q3
Q12003Q3
Q12002Q3
State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth1,000s
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#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Natural Resou 3.5% 91.7 Natural 0.6%
Construction 7.0% 182.7 Constru 0.6%
Manufacturing 8.8% 228.6 Manufa 8.9%
Trade/Transpo 20.1% 524.4 Trade/T 18.9%
Information 1.1% 29.6 Inform 2.0%
Financial Act 5.2% 135.4 Financi5.7%
Prof. & Busin 14.7% 383.5 Profes 13.2%
Educ. & Heal 12.4% 321.9 Educat 15.3%
Leisure & Ho 9.1% 238.3 Leisur 10.0%
Other Servic 3.7% 97 Other 4.1%
Government 14.3% 372.7 89.5% Gover 16.9% #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Information
Financial ActivitiesProf. & Business Services
Educ. & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Service Providing Excluding Government Other Services
Government
Local Economic Outlook Houston
10,800
NA
NA
12-month Job Change (Aug)
13,800
66,300Employment has held up and is on an
upward trend
NotComparable
12-month Job Change (Sep)
U.S.
NotComparable
Unemployment has risen since thesame period last year, but Houston'slabor market has been more resilient
than the national average
Not
Comparable
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand
63,300
36-month Job Change (Sep)
The economy of Texas has outpacedthe rest of the nation and improvedmodestly from last month's 2.96%
change
U.S.
-4,400
12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area (Sep - 2011)
Year-ago Unemployment Rate
9.1%
9.6%
2.6%
8.6%
8.3%
Share of Total Employment by IndustryU.S.
State Economic Activity Index
Construction
NA10,100
9,700
7,900
20017,600
1,500
5,200
Current Unemployment Rate (Sep)
36-month change (2011 - Sep)
-1,900
Natural Resources and Mining
Local employment growth is strong
compared to other markets0.8%
Natural Resources/Mining/Construction
12-month change (2011 - Sep)
1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area
Texas
-2.6%-4.3%
3.2% 2.8%
Goods Producing
9,600Manufacturing
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
NaturalResourcesand Mining
3.5%
Construction
7.0% Manufacturing
8.8%
Trade/Transportation/U
tilities20.1%
Information1.1%
FinancialActivities
5.2%
Prof. &BusinessServices14.7%
Educ. &Health
Services12.4%
Leisure &Hospitality
9.1%
OtherServices
3.7%
Government
14.3%
NaturalResourcesand Mining
0.6%
Construction
0.6% Manufacturing
8.9%
Trade/Transportation/
Utilities18.9%
Informatio2.0%Financial
Activities5.7%
Professional &
BusinessServices13.2%
Educational& HealthServices15.3%
Leisure &Hospitality
10.0%
OtherServices
4.1%
Government
16.9%
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Construction is down from last year,but appears to have bottomed.
While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures now have a strong impact oninventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or foreclosure, place downwardpressure on the median home prices.
The current level of construction is
41.4% below the long-term averagenot comparable21,578
New Housing Construction
Single-Family Housing Permits (Sep 2011)12-month sum vs. a year ago
U.S.
8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-UnitBuilding Permits
Local Fundamentals
12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through
Sep 2011
Houston
Reduced construction will limit newsupply to the market, allowing demand
to catch up with the inventory more
quickly
not comparable36,829
-7.4% -10.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)
Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
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89.2% 3.1% 7.6% 90.9% 4.9% 4.1%
1.4% 3.2%
1.5% 3.4%
10.5% 18.9%
9.3% 18.2%
5.1% 15.2%
5.2% 15.2%
Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
10.7% 11.7% 11.5% 26.6% 27.8% 27.5%
3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 5.8% 6.2% 6.3%
1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%
Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
Locally, today's foreclosure rate is lowrelative to the national average
The subprime foreclosure rate jumpedcompared to March of last year
The "foreclosure + REO rate" is the number of mortgages, by metro area, that are either in the foreclosure process or have complet
the foreclosure process and are owned by banks divided by the total number of mortgages for that area.
ALT-A:Foreclosure + REO
Rate
The local alt-A rate eased slightlyrelative to March of last year
The decline of both the 60 and 90-day
delinquency rates over the most recen6-month period suggests a decline inthe local foreclosure rate in the near
future.
The Houston market has been able tocontain both subprime and prime
lending issues
The local prime rate fell modestly from
March of last year
SUBPRIME:
Foreclosure + REORate
Houston
The August rate for Houston is low
compared to the national average
Prime:
Foreclosure +
REO Rate
Prime Foreclosures and Delinquencies in ProcessMonthly Market Data -
August 2011
Prime: 90-day
Delinquent
Foreclosures by TypeMonthly Market Data -
August 2011
PRIME:Foreclosure + REO
Rate Compared to the national average,today's local prime rate is low
Market Share:
Prime (blue), Alt-A(green), and Subprime
(red)
U.S.Houston
Prime: 60-day
Delinquent
U.S.
The 90-day delinquency rate in Houstofell over the 6-month period ending in
August
The local 60-day delinquency rate fellover the 6-month period ending in
August suggesting that 90-daydelinquencies will decline in the near
future
1.39%
1.50%
Aug-11Mar-11
3.15%
3.43%
Aug-11Mar-11
10.53%9.33
%
Aug-11Mar-11
5.13%
5.20%
Aug-11Mar-11
18.88%18.1
5%
Aug-11Mar-11
15.18%
15.21%
Aug-11Mar-11
89.2
%
3.1% 7.6%
90.9
%
4.9
%
4.1
%
10.66%
11.71%
11.45%
Aug-11Mar-11Aug-10
26.60%
27.80%
27.52%
Aug-11Mar-11Aug-10
5.82%
6.24%
6.25%
Aug-11Mar-11Aug-10
1.39%
1.50%
1.52%
Aug-11Mar-11Aug-10
3.15%
3.43%3.17
%
Aug-11Mar-11Aug-10
3.40%
3.75%
3.82%
Aug-11Mar-11Aug-10
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Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income
Historical Average 1.3
2.4
Houston
Houston
Ratio for 2010 15.1%
U.S.
Ratio for 2011 Q3
Median Home Price to Income
Historically strong and an improvemenover the second quarter of 2011
Affordability
7.5%
7.8%
13.9%
Historical Average
U.S.
1.3
1.3
2.7
2.3
More affordable than most markets22.0%10.3%
The price-to-income ratio has fallen anis below the historical average
Affordable compared to most markets
Ratio for 2011 Q3
Ratio for 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010200820062004200220001998199619941992
Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2011 Q32011 Q22011 Q12010 Q42010 Q32010 Q22010 Q12009 Q4
Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
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After a soft second quarter, the economy was shocked by three events that came together nearly within the same weak; deadlock in Congress and near miss on the budget extension, renewed concerns about the Greek debt crisis impacting
the US, and a sharp, downward revision to 1st and 2nd quarter GDP estimates. The result was a 15% or more correctionin the equity indexes, which sent investors into US Treasuries seeking a risk free asset. The yield on the 10-yearTreasury reached near record lows and the 30-year FRM followed suit, slipping under 4% multiple times. However, thegap between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year fixed opened up as the risk to MBS investors of increased refinancingrose, creating resistance for falling mortgage rates. Fuel prices eased in the 3rd quarter and are likely to do so through
the fall. At the same time there is little core inflation pressure, which combined with the Federal Reserves operationtwist that is intended to flatten the yield curve putting downward pressure on long-term rates, should sustain a near-record low mortgage rate environment through the fall.
The Mortgage Market
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2011 Q3Q12010 Q3Q12009 Q3Q12008 Q3Q12007 Q3Q12006 Q3
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield
Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.03.5
4.0
2010200820062004200220001998199619941992
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income(Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green )
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A Closer LookLocal Rental
Vacancy Rates
8.6%
More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/
Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty CountyMontgomery County, San Jacinto County, and Waller County
The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land metro area aofficially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes
the following counties:
Geographic Coverage for this Report
Rental Vacancy Rate Texas U.S.Ratio for 2010 16.2% 10.2%
Data for Texas Not AvailableRatio for 2011 Q3 17.1% 9.8%
Historical Average 16.2%
#N/A
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
201020082006200420022000199819961994199219901988
U.S. (blue) and Local (red) Rental Vacancy Rates