Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Initiating Coverage

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INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT William C. Dunkelberg Owl Fund April, 6 th 2015 Victor Fallas: Lead Analyst [email protected] Mike Soforic: Associate Analyst [email protected] Maria Villamar: Associate Analyst [email protected] COMPANY OVERVIEW Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc., formerly News Corporation, is a diversified global media and entertainment company that produces which creates television programs and movies; broadcast television. The Company operates five industry segments: Cable Network Programming (39% of FY 2014 sales); Television (17% of FY 2014 sales); Filmed Entertainment (30% of FY 2014 sales); Direct Broadcast Satellite Television (19%), and Corporate and Eliminations (-4% of FY 2014 sales). As of FY 2014, Twenty-First Century Fox operates internationally in the regions United States (55% of FY 2014 sales), Europe (31% of FY 2014 sale) Asia (7%), and Canada (1%) and other miscellaneous regions (7%). INVESTMENT THESIS 21st Century Fox (FOXA) is currently trading at a 17.3% discount to its 3-year P/E spread against its main competitors: Walt Disney (DIS), CBS Corp (CBS) and Time Warner (TWX). FOX became undervalued due to (1) the market reacting to losing out on its bid for rival TWX, (2) Management reducing its FY 2015 guidance due to adverse foreign exchange and lower ad revenues which other competitors also experienced (3) A dispute with Dish over fees for Fox News which has since been resolved. Fox holds wide economic moats of scale and leverage over broadcasters which allows it to increase its affiliate and retransmission fees. Moving forward, we see FOX’s strong international presence, margin expansion through its DBS business divestiture, RSN and channel leverage, and the FCC regulation auction will drive FOX to return to trading at its historical multiple to competitors. These catalysts give FOX a 3-year earnings growth at a faster pace than competitors; we see the recent lower guidance and other one-time events as a buying opportunity for a strong industry leader. We believe that FOX will trade at its 3 year historical P/E spread multiple of 21.0x, and will trade at our discounted cash flow valuation of $40.80, yielding a 23.7% return. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: ENTERTAINMENT Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. Exchange: NYSE Ticker: FOXA Target Price: $40.80 Sector Outperform Recommendation: BUY Key Statistics: Price $34.04 52 Week Low $31.01 Return 23.7% 52 Week High $39.27 Shares O/S (mm) 2.13B Yield 0.90% Market Cap (mm) $72.37B Enterprise Value $81.45B 1 Year Price Graph Earnings History: Quarters EPS Δ Rev. YoY Δ Price 3Q14 $0.47 11.8% 6.54% 4Q14 $0.42 16.8% 5.04% 1Q15 $0.39 11.7% 4.53% 2Q15 $0.53 -1.3% -5.37% Earnings Projections: Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total 2014 $0.33 $0.33 $0.47 $0.42 $1.55 2015 $0.39 $0.53 $0.40 $0.40 $1.69 2016e $0.45 $0.51 $0.54 $0.54 $2.03 2017e $0.56 $0.63 $0.63 $0.64 $2.50 All prices current at end of previous trading sessions from date of report. Data is sourced from local exchanges via CapIQ, Bloomberg and other vendors. The William C. Dunkelberg Owl fund does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.

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Initiating Coverage

Transcript of Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Initiating Coverage

  • INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT

    William C. Dunkelberg Owl Fund April, 6th 2015

    Victor Fallas: Lead Analyst [email protected] Mike Soforic: Associate Analyst [email protected] Maria Villamar: Associate Analyst [email protected]

    COMPANY OVERVIEW

    Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc., formerly News

    Corporation, is a diversified global media and

    entertainment company that produces which creates

    television programs and movies; broadcast television.

    The Company operates five industry segments: Cable

    Network Programming (39% of FY 2014 sales);

    Television (17% of FY 2014 sales); Filmed Entertainment

    (30% of FY 2014 sales); Direct Broadcast Satellite

    Television (19%), and Corporate and Eliminations (-4%

    of FY 2014 sales). As of FY 2014, Twenty-First Century

    Fox operates internationally in the regions United States

    (55% of FY 2014 sales), Europe (31% of FY 2014 sale)

    Asia (7%), and Canada (1%) and other miscellaneous

    regions (7%).

    INVESTMENT THESIS

    21st Century Fox (FOXA) is currently trading at a 17.3%

    discount to its 3-year P/E spread against its main

    competitors: Walt Disney (DIS), CBS Corp (CBS) and

    Time Warner (TWX). FOX became undervalued due to

    (1) the market reacting to losing out on its bid for rival

    TWX, (2) Management reducing its FY 2015 guidance

    due to adverse foreign exchange and lower ad revenues

    which other competitors also experienced (3) A dispute

    with Dish over fees for Fox News which has since been

    resolved. Fox holds wide economic moats of scale and

    leverage over broadcasters which allows it to increase its

    affiliate and retransmission fees. Moving forward, we see

    FOXs strong international presence, margin expansion

    through its DBS business divestiture, RSN and channel

    leverage, and the FCC regulation auction will drive FOX

    to return to trading at its historical multiple to

    competitors. These catalysts give FOX a 3-year earnings

    growth at a faster pace than competitors; we see the

    recent lower guidance and other one-time events as a

    buying opportunity for a strong industry leader. We

    believe that FOX will trade at its 3 year historical P/E

    spread multiple of 21.0x, and will trade at our discounted

    cash flow valuation of $40.80, yielding a 23.7% return.

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    Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. Exchange: NYSE Ticker: FOXA Target Price: $40.80

    Sector Outperform Recommendation: BUY

    Key Statistics: Price $34.04 52 Week Low $31.01

    Return 23.7% 52 Week High $39.27

    Shares O/S (mm) 2.13B Yield 0.90%

    Market Cap (mm) $72.37B Enterprise Value

    $81.45B

    1 Year Price Graph

    Earnings History:

    Quarters EPS Rev. YoY Price

    3Q14 $0.47 11.8% 6.54% 4Q14 $0.42 16.8% 5.04% 1Q15 $0.39 11.7% 4.53% 2Q15 $0.53 -1.3% -5.37%

    Earnings Projections:

    Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total

    2014 $0.33 $0.33 $0.47 $0.42 $1.55

    2015 $0.39 $0.53 $0.40 $0.40 $1.69

    2016e $0.45 $0.51 $0.54 $0.54 $2.03

    2017e $0.56 $0.63 $0.63 $0.64 $2.50

    All prices current at end of previous trading sessions from date of report. Data is sourced from local exchanges via CapIQ, Bloomberg and other vendors. The William C. Dunkelberg Owl fund does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.

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    CATALYSTS

    International Expansions:

    FOX has made significant investments in

    developing pay-television in international markets as

    it seeks to expand its place as a leader in key pay TV

    growth regions. Continued emphasis on gaining

    international market share will drive top line for

    FOX and remain the market leader in pay TV. Fox

    operates on more than 300 channels in 200

    countries reaching 1.4 billion households. Primary

    networks are located in Latin America (LAPTV:

    acquired in 2013), India (#1 network SKY India

    and 2014 acquisition of Asianet Communications

    Limited) and Europe, Africa, and Asia. The

    company has been purchasing major stakes in large

    international pay-television broadcasters such as

    Fox Pan American Sports LLC (Latin America)

    STAR India, Fox Sports Asia and many more. In total FOX derives 45% of FY 2014 revenue from countries outside

    the United States. Our competitors receive, Disney (25%), CBS (13%), and Time Warner (31%), all possess significantly

    lower foreign exposure. We believe this gives FOX an advantage as televisions becomes more common in emerging

    markets. Currently the international pay-television penetration remains below 50% in globally versus the US pay-

    television penetration around 90%. Looking forward we believe that FOX will continue to expand in international

    markets is in the best position to capture the growing international pay-television market. In addition, FOX is still ahead

    of many of its peers in expanding its cable networks in Asia and Europe and it has the financial resources to further

    expand over the next decade.

    Selling of Direct Broadcast Satellite Television Business:

    In Mid-2014, FOX sold its pay-tv business in Italy and Germany to British Sky Broadcasting Group (BskyB) for more

    than $9 Billion. Despite this, FOXA will still hold a 39% stake in BskyB, regardless of the low margins this business

    brought for FOX, which had grown revenues at average annual rates of less than 2% up to 2012. EBITDA margins for

    the segment had been declining (19% in 2008 vs. 9% in 2013) and 50% of FOXs capital expenditures were associated

    with this segment in the last four years. FOXs EBITDA margins are expanding 210 basis points in FY 2016 which can

    largely be attributed to selling the segment. Net Income margins are also expanding 100 basis points in the same time

    frame. This sale frees up cash for FOX which management stated they will increase its buyback program and dividends

    but was also done in pursuit of Time Warner. After missing out on that acquisition, the recent (4/3/15) announcement

    of Madison Square Gardens (MSG) dividing its live sports and entertainment into two companies. MSG holds two

    RSNs in the countrys top media market which would complement FOXs holding of the YES network (NY Yankees)

    and 22 RSNS. Although this was only announced on April 3rd, the consumer sector sees this as likely target for FOX

    with its extra capital from the sell-off.

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    Leverage over Programming:

    21st Century Fox possess one the strongest

    portfolios of television networks. Most

    prominent networks include FOX News (96

    million U.S. households), Fox Sports Net (91

    million subscribers), and FX (100 million U.S.

    households). Due to the popularity of these

    channels, FOX has been able to increase

    affiliate fees year after year. Entertainment

    producers receive affiliate fees from multi-

    channel video programming distributors based

    on the number of their subscribers, simply, the

    more a channels are watched, the higher

    companies like DirecTV will pay FOX for the

    right to use its networks and content. FOX

    can leverage its position into earning higher

    affiliate fees over the next several years as channels such as FOX News, FSN, and FX are considered essential

    channels in television broadcasters channel bundles. Moreover we forecast that, as FOX enters more sport and news

    oriented networks, advertising fees will increase. Even though companies such as Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime

    Instant Video, have moved viewers to watch drama television shows on streaming applications, viewers still and will

    continue to watch news and sports programming in real time, which is a trend that adds advertisers value. FOX

    remains the industry leader in both news and sports networks. Fox News is a top-10 watched cable channel and FSN

    and Fox Sports 1 have contracts with professional sports leagues such as the NFL, MLB, NASCAR, UFC, along with

    collegiate football and basketball teams. Fox also has 22 regional sports networks that gives FOX power to negotiate

    higher affiliate fees and advertisements. Fox has long-term deals with over 50 teams and we believe that the prominence

    of FOXs news and sports networks will drive top line for FOX.

    Expected 2016 FCC Regulation Auction:

    In FY 2016, the Federal Communications Commission intends to repurchase spectrum stations from broadcasters and

    auctioning the acquired stations to top tier telecom companies. Major broadcasters (CBS, Comcast, Fox) would be

    approached to sell their high frequency MHz stations. FOX presently has twenty-nine broadcasting stations in seventeen

    domestic cities of which management

    believes 18 would be available to be

    auctioned. Out of these seventeen cities,

    eleven cities have more than one

    broadcasting station which leads to cross

    coverage and cannibalization. The FCC

    auction will provide FOX the opportunity

    to divest some of their stations and reduce

    the cannibalization. Moreover, in previous

    auction, the FCC has paid a premium for

    stations which FOX would be

    compensated. FOX has a great

    opportunity to sell, and share its station to

    expand margins, increase its shareholder

    returns and gain cash as well as investing

    in its international growth strategies.

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    INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

    - Media & Entertainment Industry

    The overall trend for digital streaming has made many of the major media &

    entertainment companies look to diversify in several revenue channels. New

    consumers options for access to electronic media and entertainment, pose a

    threat to the traditional cable bundle of the past which largely affects any

    networks that lack the must have programming operations style. Many

    analysts believe that the overall content demand globally is growing at a record

    pace; more buyers than ever create a favorable environment for the strong

    leaders in the industry. The best positioned companies are the larger media

    companies with notable scale, leverage and content ownership that will continue

    to meet the demand of the end consumer. Companies such as DIS, FOX &

    CBS have a strong offering of both, sports and entertainment products in large

    scales which will allow them to leverage higher fees to meet the growing

    demand.

    - Broadcast Retransmission Fees

    Broadcast networks such as FOX and Disneys ABC are looking to raise

    retransmission fees from Pay-TV operators in order to reduce their reliance on

    advertising revenues moving forward. Analyst see retransmission fees rising

    21% in 2015, and could increase 90% to $9.3 Billion in 2020 (was $4.9 B in

    2014). Networks are looking to increase fees with Pay-TV distributors and

    Station Affiliates to match the growth of sports rights. CBS has set a $2 Billion

    in annual transmission revenue by 2020.

    - Future Streaming Services

    Apple plans to launch a streaming TV service in late 2015, which will include big

    networks such as ABC, CBS and FOX among its 25 channels. Smaller networks

    may be excluded from this service and this looks to be the same with other

    future streaming TV services as Pay-TV looks to be consolidating. These smaller

    networks may look to be acquired by other network owners in M&A in order to

    gain leverage. Google and Sony may also seek to get into developing online Pay-

    TV services as well.

    - TV Advertising

    Global TV advertising revenue is successfully responding to the rise of newer

    forms of digital media. Global TV advertising revenue will grow at a CAGR of

    5.5% over the next five years, confirming TV as the place to be for advertisers

    looking to reach big audiences. Online TV advertising for traditional

    broadcasters will double to 4.5% of total advertising for the major media

    companies by 2018. This presents a large opportunity for significant new

    revenue stream despite the competition from new entrants.

    - Subscription TV

    Global subscription TV revenues will grow at a CAGR of 3.5% over the next

    five years to US $236 Billion in 2018. This growth demonstrates that

    subscription TV is in a healthy position, assisted by the initiatives it has

    implemented to counter the impact of OTT and other disruptive influences. A

    major opportunity is China who will become the 2nd largest TV market in 2016

    surpassing the UK and Germany. Smaller emerging markets also present a big

    opportunity for growth.

    WIDE ECONOMIC MOAT

    - Scale and Brand Strength:

    FOX remains a leading global

    entertainment company that will continue

    to capitalize on new content. The cable

    network segment holds franchises such as

    Fox News which continues to outpace

    CNN and MSNBC. FOX is the leader in

    RSN in the US with exclusive

    broadcasting rights for multiple teams; its

    international presence allows the ability to

    benefit from emerging markets and its

    size and leverage over the market allows it

    to remain the most favorable way for

    advertisers to reach a large number of

    consumers. Moving forward, the demand

    for content continues to grow, live sports

    remain immune to time-shifted viewing

    and targets a key advertising

    demographic.

    RISKS

    -Foreign Currency Translation:

    FOX derives 45% of its sales from

    countries outside the United States. The

    company became undervalued as analysts

    became fearful of the companys foreign

    exposure as the United States Dollar

    appreciated. Looking forward, increased

    currency volatility could cause adverse top

    and bottom lines for FOX

    - Advertising spending/rating:

    Advertisers could reduce spending on

    major TV networks and instead look to

    spend more funds on online advertising

    as consumers shift to digital content

    viewing on streaming services.

    - Slowdown in global consumer

    spending: FOX, being a discretionary

    entertainment company, is very tied to

    macro-economic trends and if consumer

    spending slows or stagnates it will lead to

    lesser subscription revenues and less

    revenues from motion pictures.

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    SEGMENT OVERVIEW

    Cable Network Programming/Television

    Consists of the production and licensing of programming

    distributed through cable television systems, direct broadcast

    satellite operators and telecommunication companies primarily in

    the U.S., Latin America, Europe and Asia. The cable networks

    derive a majority of their revenues from monthly affiliate fees

    received from multi-channel video programming distributors

    (MVPD) (ie. Comcast, Dish, DirectTV, Verizon Fios) based on

    their subscribers. Affiliate fees are net of the amortization of the

    cable distribution investments (simply the fees paid to MVPD to

    facilitate the carriage of a domestic cable network). The company

    receives these funds on straight-line basis over the contract

    period. The majority of the expenses in the segment are

    acquisition and production expenses related to programming. Some of the Cable Network programming include Fox

    News, Fox Sports 1, FX, FXX (the fastest growing network in cable) and National Geographic. FSN is the largest

    regional Sports Network (RSN) in the U.S. they transmit collegiate home team sports events with 91 million subscribers

    surpassing ESPN2 in viewers. FX is also seeing stronger content monetization (and less reliance on advertising) through

    growing streaming video on demand.

    Filmed Entertainment

    Consists of the production and acquisition of live-action and animated motion pictures for distribution and licensing in

    all formats in all entertainment media worldwide. This segment derives its revenue from the production and distribution

    of live-action and animated motion pictures and television series. License fees received for TV exhibition are recorded as

    revenue in the period that it was available for exhibition which at time causes fluctuation in operating results. Operating

    costs incurred by this segment include exploitation costs, primarily theatrical prints, advertising, home entertainment

    marketing and manufacturing costs.

    Direct Broadcast Satellite TV

    FOX engaged in the broadcast service business directly to subscribers in Italy and Germany and Austria through its

    subsidiaries Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia. Fox still holds a 39% interest in BSkyB, the UK and Irelands leading

    entertainment and communications provider. This segment was sold during the last reporting period as it required large

    amounts of capex spending and although it made up 19% of revenue, it also produced 6% of EBITDA. It earned its

    revenue by obtaining the carriage of the companys channels on multi-system operators (MSO).

    PEER GROUP IDENTIFICATION

    - Disney (NYSE: DIS)

    Diversified International Family entertainment operating in media,

    parks and resorts, studio entertainment, and consumer products..

    - CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS)

    Operates business in the media and entertainment industries

    including TV Networks, TV studios, Global distribution and

    Films.

    - Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) Media and entertainment company that operates in Networks,

    Film, and TV Entertainment and Publishing.

    TARGET PRICE

    FOX is currently trading at a 17.3% discount to its 3 year historical

    premium to Disney, CBS, and Time Warner. We forecasted the next

    7 year free cash flow to equity and discounted the FCF to the

    companies 7.43% WACC. We calculated a total equity value of

    $91,080 billion and when we divided the equity value by shares

    outstanding we calculated a 40.80 price target.

    Discounted Cash Flow P/E Valuation Price

    Target= $40.80

    Target Multiple: 22.1x

    Current Multiple: 18.5x

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    FINANCIALS

    Revenue

    FOX revenue has grown from $24.2 billion in FY 2011 to

    $31.9 billion in FY 2014. FOX derives its revenue from

    five avenues within its five segments: affiliate fees (28.2%

    of FY 2014 sales), subscriptions (17.2% of FY 2014 sales),

    advertisements (25.8% of FY 2014 sales), content (27.0%

    of FY 2014 sales) and miscellaneous revenue streams

    (1.9%). Over the last year, revenue has increased 15.1%

    from $27.7 billion to $31.9 billion. Affiliate fee revenue

    increased 17% due to higher average rates per subscriber

    and the acquisition of majority interests in the YES

    Network (New York Sports Network), Fox Sports Asia

    (formerly ESPN Star Sports) and Eredivisie Media & Marketing CV (Premier League Soccer), we see this trend of

    expanding into international markets as a major catalyst going forward. Launches of new channels (Fox Sports 1, STAR

    Sports networks, FXX drove FY 2014 revenue. Looking forward, we believe revenue will increase at a 5.0%, 7 year

    CAGR (analyst consensus). We credit this forecast due to the FOXs emphasis on going in international markets, seen

    in the FOX Sports Asia and Eredivisie Media & Marketing CV, as well as their leveraging of affiliate fees and advertising

    fees for FOX News, FSN and FX networks.

    - Cable Network Programing (38.5% of FY 2014 Revenue)

    The Cable Network Programing revenue grew from $8.2 billion in FY 2011 to $12.3 billion in FY 2014, representing a

    10.6% CAGR. Within the Cable Network and Programing segment, revenue fluctuates around affiliate fees and

    advertising. Over the past fiscal year, the cable network programming segment increased $1.4 billion, from $10.9 billion

    to $12.3 billion or 12.8%. Domestic affiliate fees increased 14% due to higher average rates per subscribers as well as

    growth of subscribers. Advertising revenues increased 8% due to higher pricing and volume. Internationally, affiliate fee

    revenues increased 19% due to local currency growth as a result of higher pricing in Latin America and increase in

    subscribers in Latin America and Asia. International advertising revenues increased 9% due to higher volume and FOX

    pricing. Looking forward we believe that the international market is very attractive for FOX due to the growth potential

    and the company's leveraging of its current and new sport networks as well as FOX News.

    - Television (16.6% of FY 2014 Revenue)

    The television revenue has grown from $4.8 billion in FY 2011 to $5.3 billion in FY 2014, representing a 2.3% CAGR.

    Within the television segment, advertising fees and advertising primarily drive revenue. YoY television revenue increased

    9%, from $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion. Advertising revenues increased 5% for FY 2014 due to increased pricing, primarily

    in their sport networks. We believe the companys sport networks are immensely valuable assets. FOX has rights to the

    NFL, MLB, NASCAR, UFC and 22 Regional Sport Networks. Live sports are the most profitable advertising television

    programs for networks as viewers still, and will continue to watch news and sports programming in real time and we see

    the FOX continue to grow ad revenue.

    - Filmed Entertainment (30.4% of FY 2014 Revenue)

    Filmed Entertainment segment has grown revenue from $7.8 billion in FY 2011 to $9.7 billion in FY 2014, representing

    a 5.5%. Revenue fluctuates based on sales from motion pictures; YoY sales increased from $8.6 billion to $9.7 billion or

    12%. This growth was due to higher worldwide theatrical revenues, an increase in network, syndication revenues and

    higher digital distribution revenues from the licensing of television productions. Overall, this segment is dependent on

    the popularity of FOX movies and television shows. We believe that the Filmed Entertainment segment is unrealistic to

    forecast due to the uncertainty surrounding future popularity of FOX produced television and motion picture

    production. That being said, FOX is the second largest filmed entertainment company in the world and has

    consecutively improved revenue and we do not see a reason why they would not do so in the future. Therefore, due to

    long historic trends we expect conservative revenue growth within our holding period.

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    Margins

    FOXs gross margin has contracted from 35.0% in FY 2011

    to 33.8% in FY 2014. In FY 2014 operating expenses

    increased a 21% increases resulting in gross margin

    contracting from 36.8% to 33.8%. This increase in

    operating expenses occurred as FOX invested additional

    operating expenses to in its DBS segment as well as its

    initiating costs for the new Fox Sports 1, FXX, and Star

    Sports networks. DBS operating expense increased $1.5

    billion as the company consolidated Sky Deutschland

    beginning in January 2013. The Cable Network

    Programming segment for fiscal 2014 was primarily related

    to higher programming costs, and the continued

    investments in Fox Sports 1, STAR Sports networks and FXX. Lastly, the companys Filmed Entertainment segment

    was primarily related to an increase in production and participation costs related to television and motion picture

    production. EBITDA margins from FOX were 21.1% in FY 2014. Cable Network Programming, Television, Filmed

    Entertainment, and Direct Broad Satellite Television EBITDA Margins were 36%, 16.7%, 14% and 7%, respectively.

    Due to the low margin of the Direct Broadcast Satellite Television, the company sold its share to BSkyB for

    approximately $9.0 billion. We view the divestiture very favorably as the company can now focus on investing on its

    high margin segments. Profit margin for FOX has expanded from 10.0% FY 2011 to 11.3% in FY 2014. Looking

    forward in the near term, we are slightly conservative on FOX margin expansion although its divestures and investments

    will expand margins in the future. The acquisitions of the majority interest of the international network along with

    increased investments in the companys international growth plan and its investments in current program channels will

    cause gross revenue to remain consistent with our forecasted sales growth.

    Earnings

    FOX has consistently surpassed earnings expectations as

    they have only missed two out of their last ten earnings

    estimates with an average surprise of 8.43% during that

    span. The remainder of FY 2015 which are the last two

    quarters ending this June are expected to see slowing

    growth and is a reason for our undervaluation, as the street

    reacted to management lowering guidance. Lower than

    expected, advertising revenues were also the cause for the

    reaction to earnings although both Viacom Inc. and Walt

    Disney Co. reported weaker than expected ad revenue.

    FOXs share price fell despite the company surpassing

    earnings estimates by double digits as well as surpassing

    revenue estimates by 1.18%. FY 2015 EPS is projected to be $1.69 (9% growth over 2014), where 2016 EPS is estimated

    at $2.03 (21% growth YoY). Along with adverse foreign exchange, FY 2015 also saw the company have many

    investments with the launches of two networks which further explains the lower EPS. The EPS for 2017 is estimated to

    be $2.50, a 23% over the previous year and represent over 80% earnings growth since 2013. This growth will derive

    from a combination of higher affiliate fees, improved profitability from the sale of its DBS segment, and its pay-TV

    international growth. FOX will grow all five of its segments in the next 3-years at a higher rate than all of its competitors

    as its recent investments will begin to realize returns. Its next earnings release will be May 6th which management

    believes will be $0.40 per share. With foreign exchange accounting for over 70% of the lowered guidance, we see Foxs

    strong organic growth as a sign that the company remains strong fundamentally and should continue its previous history

    of surpassing estimates.

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    Cash Flows and Capital Expenditures

    Cash flow from operations for FY 2015 is projected to

    be $4.8 billion, up significantly from $3.0 billion in FY

    2014. Looking forward CFFO is forecasted to increase

    at a 15.53% CAGR from FY 2015 to FY 2019. This

    increase is due to the company beginning to capture

    cash flows from its recent investments in new networks

    such as Fox Sports 1 and FXX both of which have

    launched since 2014. Moreover FOX News, FSN, and

    FSN will continue to increase their affiliate, also

    increasing top line. Bottom line growth will occur as

    margins expand from divestitures, specifically the

    divesture of the 7% EBITDA margin direct broadcast

    satellite TV segment. Going forward, FOX will be able

    to expand into more profitable segments, mainly the

    37% EBITA margin cable network programing segment. Free cash flow (FCF) for FY 2014 was reported $2.3 billion

    and is forecasted to increase to $4.5 billion in FY 2015. Looking forward, free cash flow is forecasted to grow at a

    5.17% CAGR from FY 2015 to FY 2019. This is attributable to the companies increased CFFO while capital

    expenditures remain constant. Management mentioned that FCF will continue to be used to return value to shareholder

    by way of dividends and share buybacks. The company also mentioned an emphasis in investing organically in new

    programing and possible strategic M&A if another opportunity presents itself. Overall management has been very vague

    in their future application of companys FCF. From what our sector has read, we believe that the company is most

    probable to use its FCF for (in order of likelihood), a strategic acquisition, shareholder returns in the form of buy backs,

    and paying off debt. Capital expenditures for FY 2014 was reported at $678 Million, up 9% YoY. Capex spending for

    2015 is projected to be $616 M. The recent development and release of both FXX and Fox Sports 1 accounted for a

    significant amount of spending. The Cable Network Programming and Television segments make up about 30% of

    capex combined. Moving forward, Capex is project to remain relatively constant as the company recently sold its DBS

    segment (to BskyB) which accounted for roughly 50% of capex spending in 2014 and at a similar rate the previous year,

    and produced minimal returns with diminishing margins to the overall business. Moving forward FOX will spend more

    of its capital expenditure budget on programming and further channel developments.

    Profitability Ratios and DuPont Analysis

    FOX ROE of 26.23% was lower than the previous years (34.05%), but this can mostly be attributed to the divesture of

    its SKY business and adverse foreign exchange. Overall FY 2013 was a more profitable year than FY 2014, analyst and

    management see FY 2014 & 2015 as investments years, which the company will see a lot of return on its investments

    like FXX and Fox Sports 1 moving forward. Disregarding 2013, 2014 profitability ratios were the highest mark in its last

    five years. Looking at Foxs ROE against competitors, FOX holds a higher ROE than all except CBS whose high tax

    burden of 137% is an outlier. FOX however is the most levered company in its comp group which is reflected in its

    ROE. Despite having lower return on sales, we see this mark improving moving forward as the forex charges have

    heavily impacted its profitability but its affiliate growth and overall margins should improve from selling its DBS

    segment.

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    Shareholder Returns

    FOX has been able to consistently return value back to shareholders, it repurchased $2.9B in shares from July 1 to Feb

    2015. FOX remains on track to complete the remainder of its scheduled $6 Billion in buybacks through the rest of FY

    2015 (June to June fiscal calendar). FOXs 3-year dividend growth rate is 15.17% and 5-year growth rate at 15.29%. It

    recently increased its dividend by 20% to $0.15, with a dividend yield of 0.89% paid out semi-annually. FOXs dividend

    is slightly lower than its competitors as both, Disney and Comcast have a higher dividend yield. We see this as an

    opportunity for FOX to increase dividend moving forward as management has stated that they are currently very liquid

    as a result of selling some its assets. Its dividend ratio is 14.96 which increased YoY since 2010, with FY 2013 being an

    outlying year. We believe FOX will continue to increase its dividend at a similar pace moving forward and continue to

    implement similar share repurchase program with its excess cash flows.

    Debt

    FOXs Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio increased from 79.72% to 88.88% YoY. Overall its long term debt slightly increased

    from $8,435 to $8,856 YoY. We do not see this as a factor moving forward as FOXs interest coverage ratio is nearly 5x

    and it has remained stable despite the added debt. The companies $2 Billion revolver expires in May 2017. It has

    principal payments of $200, $400 for the next two years with no principal payment due in 2017. Its interest payments

    are $785, $1086, $1054 for 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. But as mentioned we see Foxs growing EBIT and

    increased profitability will allow them to make these payments without issues. FOX has a WACC of 8.0%, which is

    comprised of 81.1% from equity, FOX has a lower WACC than its competitors, Disney (9.3%), CBS (8.7%) while TWX

    (7.4%) has a slightly lower WACC as their capital structure is more comprised of debt. FOXs current ratio and quick

    ratio of 1.74 and 1.34 are larger than its competitors and further shows the companys ability to pay back its liabilities.

    FOXs credit rating is BBB+ from S&P and Fitch which is investment grade and the highest rating the company has

    received to date. Competitor CBS & Time Warner have a BBB rating while Disney holds an A rating.

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    VALUATION

    Peer Group

    FOX is currently trading at 17.3% discount to its 3-year historical spread against competitors Disney, CBS, Time

    Warner. We believe that FOXA should trade back at its historical premium to these competitors due to the growth

    opportunities that FOX has comparatively in emerging markets as well as its diversified offerings. We decided to use the

    comps above due to their similarities to FOX, where entertainment makes up about 85% of their total revenue

    compared to 67% for Disney (DIS), 94% for Time Warner Inc (TWX), and 75% for CBS Corp (CBS).The remaining

    part of FOX revenue is made of its Cable & Satellite of which its other competitors do have smaller % of revenue in this

    segment. Disney offers ESPN and its family of networks which is the main competitor to Foxs broad offering of

    Regional Sports Networks. To rival ESPN, FOX developed and released its own major sports network in FOX Sports 1,

    which as of early 2015 has already surpassed ESPN2 in viewership and will serve as a rival for the worldwide leader in

    sports moving forward. Where we see its competitors growth slowing in FY 2016 and FY 2017, FOXs growing at a

    faster pace through those years and we believe that the current discount and multiple is not reflective of its growth.

    Undervaluation

    FOX is currently trading at a 17.3% discount to its 3-year historical P/E spread against a comp group comprised of

    competitors in the Media & Entertainment industry CBS, Comcast, and Disney. FOX is also trading at a 13.75%

    discount to its own 1-year P/E average multiple and a 3% discount to its 3-year average. FOX has historically traded in

    line with these competitors (.904 R^2 3-year correlation & .961 5-year) and at a 5% premium. This undervaluation

    occurred after FOX announced their 2Q FY 2015 earnings where despite reporting $0.56 EPS for the quarter versus an

    $0.53 estimate (27.41%) surprise, FOXs stock price decreased nearly 6% as they lowered their guidance for the rest of

    FY 2015 due to higher than expected foreign exchange as well lower advertising revenue, which was seen throughout the

    industry. About 31% of FOXs revenue comes from Europe and 13.4% from Asia and other markets. We see this

    downside as already priced in, and see FOX trading at discount at 16.7x its FY16 earnings, and 13.64x its FY17 earnings.

    As far the dispute with Dish, investors sold off as Dish entered into a dispute with FOX over broadcast fees and

    dropped both Fox News and Fox Business networks. This was resolved through a multiyear contract a few weeks after

    although we believe that this displayed the strength in Foxs leverage as Dish lost more than 90,000 subscribers. Despite

    the resolve, FOX has not yet returned to trading at the multiple before this event. We see FOX as the company trading

    at the most attractive value in its industry and see its current discount to its competitors and own historical multiple as

    unwarranted due to its strong earnings growth in FY 2016, and beyond. For these reasons we believe that FOX should

    return to its 3-year historical multiple to its competitors.

    Peer P/E Multiple

    21.0x

    Mean Factor

    1.056

    P/E Multiple

    22.1x

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    DCF Assumptions

    We projected for sales growth, of 5.5% and -10.5% growth for FY 2014 and FY 2015, respectively. The negative growth

    in FY 2015 are a result of the company's divestiture of its DBS segment. Overall our sales projections are marginally

    lower than analysts. Many analysts are forecasting sales with their ideas of how future motion picture and television

    shows will financially preform. We want to show a more conservative model for the company to account for possible

    underperforming motion pictures and shows. Upsides from successful media will only add to our expected return. We

    forecast gross margin will expand from 33.8% in FY 2014 to 35% in FY 2015 and 37%% in FY 2018 and remain

    constant hence forth. The company divested its underperforming DBS segment (made up 7% of EBITDA margins).

    Moving forward, gross margin expand and FOX will increase investments in international Cable Network Programming

    and Television segments (37% EBITDA margin). SG&A was calculated by looking at the previous three years and raised

    incrementally to reflect analysts models. Remaining projections were forecasted by using the previous three years and

    forecasting similar results.

    WACC Calculations

    The WACC of 8.59 % was calculated the taking the average equity and debt weights for the previous five year along with

    their current weight. The average equity weight was calculated at 76.1% and the average debt weight was calculated at

    23.9%. Cost of equity was calculated to be 9.32% by using the expected market return of 9.32%, risk free rate of 1.92%,

    and a beta of 0.99. Cost of debt was found to be 1.43% using an effective tax rate of 24.0%, short term debt total

    percentage of 4.19%, short term debt rate of 0.56%, long term debt percentage of 95.81%, and a long term debt rate of

    1.92%. By adding the product of average debt weighting and the cost of debt, and the product of average equity

    weighting and the cost of equity, we derived a WACC of 7.43%

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    APPENDIX

    Exhibit 1) Total TV Advertising Revenue

    Exhibit 2) 3 Year P/E

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    Exhibit 3) 3 Year P/E Spread Aginst DIS, CBS, and TWX

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    DISCLAIMER

    This report is prepared strictly for educational purposes and should not be used as an actual investment guide.

    The forward looking statements contained within are simply the authors opinions. The writer does not own any

    21st Century Fox, Inc. stock.

    TUIA STATEMENT

    Established in honor of Professor William C. Dunkelberg, former Dean of the Fox School of Business, for his

    tireless dedication to educating students in real-world principles of economics and business, the William C.

    Dunkelberg (WCD) Owl Fund will ensure that future generations of students have exposure to a challenging,

    practical learning experience. Managed by Fox School of Business graduate and undergraduate students with

    oversight from its Board of Directors, the WCD Owl Funds goals are threefold:

    Provide students with hands-on investment management experience

    Enable students to work in a team-based setting in consultation with investment professionals.

    Connect student participants with nationally recognized money managers and financial institutions

    Earnings from the fund will be reinvested net of fund expenses, which are primarily trading and auditing costs

    and partial scholarships for student participants.