Johan SannebladPhD, affärsutvecklare

HiQ

Twelve years at Mobile World Congress – can wepredict the future basedon the past and current?

Twelve years at Mobile World Congress

The evolution of Mobile World Congressto the best place for mobile inspiration & innovation

Johan Sanneblad, PhDHiQ Göteborg

Johan Sanneblad, PhDBusiness developer at HiQ,

focusing on innovation projectsCurrently in Volvo Cars Product Labs

Previously working for Lego, Yamaha,Länsförsäkringar, Sandvik, Hultafors, NCC,

Husqvarna, Collector Bank, Folkspeland many more

Spend much of my time researching trends, analyzing, and finding new business opportunities

2008-2014: The “experimentation years”

Mobile World Congress 2008

It’s all about Nokia phones, BlackBerry Phones, and Windows Phones

Most phones of 2008 were based on very old operating systems that were not suitable for modern games, large screens and touch displays

Mobile World Congress 2009 – the year after the App Store

“Everyone wants to build an App Store”

Five major App Stores during 2009Android Market

Revenue sharing: 70% ($25 entry fee)Apple AppStore

Revenue sharing: 70% ($99 entry fee)BlackBerry Application Center

Revenue sharing: 80% (no entry fee)Ovi Store

Revenue sharing: 70% (no entry fee)Windows Marketplace

Revenue sharing: 70% ($99 entry fee)

Mobile World Congress 2010

“The year of smarter phones”

Mobile World Congress 2011 – the year after the iPad

“Everyone wants to build a tablet”

2011 – A shift from platforms to services

Ryuji Yamada, CEO NTT DOCOMO

Eric Schmidt, CEO Google

“In your lifetime you will experience2-3 technology shifts.

Mainframe transition ...... PC transition ..... Mobile transition

In 10 years we can expect the worldto be much more mobile.”

In this decade…“You never forget anything anymore.

You are never lost.You will be able to communicate with everyone.

You are never lonely.You are never bored.“

“Having your phone watch yourmedical status is a natural next step.

‘You are sick, you need to go tothe hospital right NOW!’"

Mobile World Congress 2015

“Every business will become a service business”

Clash of two worlds

“Mechanical Guys”Strong company heritage

Risk aversityCorporate career is the normDomain: Physics, Engineering

“Think Big”Long QA & Release cycles

Source: enterprise-iot.org

High riskVC – driven Culture

EntrepreneurialDomain: IT, Services

Focus on point solutionsAgile, Perpetual Beta

“Internet Guys”

Latency

Mobile World Congress 2016

“What do we show now?”

Mobile World Congress 2017-2019

More of the same

Trade show:5G will be here “soon” with 2025 predictions updated yearly

Impressive showcases of a future world where cars drive by themselvesInteractive VR experiences and rollercoasters

The main takeaway between 2016 and 2019 instead becamethe seminars, which focused more and more on service development!

MWC 2018

MWC 2018

MWC 2018

MWC 2019

MWC 2020Planned

What 12 years ago was the show of “copying Apple as best as we can”,is today one of the cornerstones of mobile innovation in Europe

The shift to services the past 5 years has made the trade show much less interesting, and the seminars and events such as 4YFN very important!My personal opinion is Mobile World Congress today is the best place in

the world to get inspired for new mobile business innovations.I am very much looking forward to Mobile World Congress 2021!

2012

Mobile Trends: 2020

Growth rate for Google Search in SwedenDesktop versus Mobile

“By 2020, more people will use their mobile devicesto surf the web than PCs or laptops”

“By 2020 we will have only two dominating platforms– and virtually no feature phones”

Gartner, two years later (2014):

“Windows phones will exhibit strong growth from a low base in 2014,and are projected to reach a 10 percent market share by 2018”

Windows Phone was officially ended in 2017, 3 years later

“In 2020, wearable computing will be larger than desktop computing”

To accurately predict technical trends you need a strong understanding of:

(a) The technical foundation of a specific product(b) The ability of the product developers to do the right decisions

(c) The priority of the product within the owner company(d) The above three points on the all competitive products

(e) Being able to quickly judge new potentially disruptive products

Trends for 2020

Trend #1: Livestream through Youtube will growSocial distancing should not be a blocker for education and learning

The tools and platforms are already here – but the policies are probably not

Trend #2: New online collaboration tools will explodeToday we do some of our work online, but not all. What tools do we need if

we need to do 100% of our work from home? Probably new tools. I believe there will be a large IT demand going forward.

Trend #3: Companies need to do the best of the situationIf your employees are at home but cannot work from home, what can they do instead? It is my hope companies take this opportunity to educate their

personnel so they are better prepared once this “wave” has passed.

Thanks!