TVET today, 4th Industrial Possible implications for TVET and the … · TVET today, 4th Industrial...

TVET today, 4th Industrial

Revolution tomorrow –

Possible implications for TVET and

the labour market in Viet Nam

Dr. Horst Sommer and Lisa-Marie Kreibich

Programme Reform of TVET in Viet Nam

Hanoi, 14. September 2017

Implemented by

Outline

1. Introduction to the 4th Industrial Revolution

2. Definition of Industry 4.0 and Initiatives

3. General Assumptions, Implications and

Predicted Impacts for the Labour Market

4. Tendencies of Industry 4.0 as Relevant Drivers

for Adjustments in TVET

5. Example of Change Processes in Specific

Sectors: Manufacturing and Electrical Industry

6. Challenges for TVET in Viet Nam

2013 Portfolio Presentation GIZ in Viet Nam 9/18/2017

Implemented by


Digitalisation and Industry 4.0 are key features of a fourth industrial revolution:

The four industrial revolutions (graphic by [Kagermann et al., 2013], translated from German)


Digitalisation and Industry 4.0 are key features of the 4th industrial revolution:


Digitalisation: Collection and processing of digital data plays a crucial role in

Industry 4.0 production and business cycles:

2. What is Industry 4.0?

• Refers to a new stage of technological change (“4th Industrial Revolution”)

• Aims are:

• to develop highly automated, interconnected and smart production

processes

• to include and optimize all phases of a product life cycle digitally:

Idea, development, production, use, maintenance and recycling

• Based on digitalisation, robotics, sensor technology, cyber-physical

systems and Big Data

• What is new about it?

• the possibilities that digital interconnection offers (e.g. man-

machine interaction)

• not only the large-scale use of computers and ICT in the production

process

3. General Assumptions and Implications

• Currently: More questions than answers

• Central question: How will the man-machine interaction look like?

• Will technology guide the human (“autonomous automation”) or will the

human guide the technology (“hybrid collaboration”)?

• The higher the potential automation of tasks performed within a

profession, the higher the risk for job losses !?

• The lower the potential automation of tasks performed within a

profession, the lower the risk of job losses !?

• In either case: The employee needs to have the needed or be ready to

acquire the needed competencies and skills to ensure employability


Digitalization / Industry 4.0 : What about jobs, employment if the robots take

over? From a contradictionary debate:

Pessimistic Scenarios

• Frey / Osborne forecast: „around

47 % of total US employment is at

risk because of Industry 4.0“ (THE

FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE

JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION? / 2013)

• World Economic Forum: „Current

estimates of global job losses due

to digitalization range from 2 million

to as high as 2 billion by 2030.

There is great uncertainty about

the overall impact of digital

transformation on jobs, with

concerns also about its impact on

wages and working conditions“ (World

Economic Forum White Paper Digital Transformation of

Industries: Societal Implications / 2016)

Optimistic Scenarios

• Boston Consulting Group: „

Industry 4.0 will promote job growth

(but stakeholders must help the

workforce adapt) (https://www.bcg.com/en-

in/d/press/28september2015...)

• VDMA (Germany): „Replacement

of workers can‘t be observed - even

there is third highest density of

robots worldwide in Germany – but

new kinds of working organization

with new and higher challenges of

man-robot-collaboration come up –

with increasing numbers of jobs –

but in new formed qualification

requirements“ (VDMA Nachrichten 07-2016)

3. Predicted Impacts on the Labour Market in Viet Nam

ILO: ASEAN in transformation: the future of jobs at risk of automation

(2016)

• Around 56% of all employment in ASEAN-5 (Cambodia, Indonesia, the

Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam) has a high risk of automation

• Viet Nam has the highest probability of automation (70%)

• Also due to the labour market structures: in Viet Nam the share of low-

skilled elementary occupations in total employment is highest higher

risk of automation

• ILO conculsion: a higher skill level is necessary

4. Tendencies in technology, business and work processes

of Industry 4.0 as relevant drivers for adjustments in TVET

Main specific technological Industry 4.0 related tendencies as drivers

for adjustments in TVET:

• Cyber-Physical-Systems / Internet of Things

• Additive processes / 3D printing

• Robotics

• Web 2.0 / mobile devices

• Wearables / augmentation

Main cross-cutting technological Industry 4.0 related tendencies as

drivers for adjustments in TVET:

• Data protection & security / privacy

• Big data

• Interdisciplinary cooperation

• Innovation / flexibility / mobility

4. Tendencies in technology, business and work processes

of Industry 4.0 as relevant drivers for adjustments in TVET

!

5. Change processes in selected specific sectors and

related requirements for TVET adjustments

Manufacturing / Metal and Electrical Industry

Now: a gradually & continuing diffusion of Industry 4.0 in production &

work processes (depending from type / size of companies), combined with

stronger

• automation – embedded in cyber-physical systems

• technical networking

• use of applications of decentral artificial intelligence

• digitalisation of processes and workflows

• importance of context related data, their collection, processing and

interpretation

• combination / fusion of informational and production processes

Source: Spöttl (2016) bayme vbm studie – Industrie 4.0 – Auswirkungen auf Aus- und Weiterbildung in der M+E Industrie




Now: Combined with trends related to some types / clusters of companies:

1. Companies without Industry 4.0 integration:

• no changes in direct production; however effects in indirect production / work /

business processes

• small influence requirements on adjustments of qualifications of employees

2. Companies with low Industry 4.0 integration:

• slight increase of implementation of elements as described above in production /

work / business processes

• visible requirements on related adjustments of qualifications of employees

3. Companies with high Industry 4.0 integration:

• partial up to comprehensive implementation of elements as described above in

production / work / business processes

• strong requirements on related adjustments of qualifications of employees





Categories of occupations related to the relevance to Industry 4.0 (German opinion):

Category 1 (with close proximity to Industry 4.0)

• Electronics technician for automation technology

• Mechtronics

• Industrial mechanic

• Specialist for Informatics

Category 2 (with close to medium proximity to Industry 4.0)

• Electronics in operation and maintenance

• Machining mechanics

• Electronics for systems and devices

• Electronics for IT systems

Category 3 (with medium to low proximity to Industry 4.0)

• Production technologist

• System mechanics

• Tool mechanics




Recommendations on adjustments of qualifications of occupations related to their

relevance to Industry 4.0:

Category 1 (close proximity to Industry 4.0) & Categorie 2 (close to medium

proximity to Industry 4.0)

• Revision of occupational / competence profiles on short notice

• Adjustment of profiles against requirements of Industry 4.0 by derivation of additional competences

from demands of industry

• Formulation of modifications / supplements in occupational / skills standards

• Elaboration of related curricula (to be decided to be implemented in intitial or further training)

• Setting up schemes for pre- and in-service training for TVET teachers and in-company trainers as

well as modes of school- and company based training

• Elaboration / development of related teaching and learning media and environments

Category 3 (medium to low proximity to Industry 4.0)

• Revision of occupational / competence profiles in a mid-term perspective – with view, that they will

be affected within around next 2 years Follow same / comparable process as above

Category 4 (low proximity to Industry 4.0)

• Investigation and derivation of demands of related competences in terms of basic competences /

generic qualifcations in occupational profiles


Qualifications and skills of workers in a factory of the future ( VDMI /ASME)



5. Summary of Trends and Challenges (Source: BiBB; Germany)

• Generally increasing importance of IT knowledge

• Control and problem-solving competence in demand

• In automated processes, vocational learning needs to be structured

differently (errors/stoppages pose too much of risk)

• More of the learning must be organised in separate locations, e.g. in virtual

learning environments

• Corresponding learning opportunities need to be kept in mind at an early

stage when production facilities are being designed

• Companies are cooperating more with partners in higher education sector

to train next generation of skilled workers

• But must not leave this field to higher education alone, particularly as no

uniform standards exist yet

• TVET 4.0 must develop its own concepts – including new partnerships

between learning venues and hybrid qualification routes in collaboration

with higher education, e.g. in context of advanced vocational qualifications

Thank you for your attention.

More Information: www.tvet-vietnam.org

eLibrary: http://www.tvet-vietnam.org/en/topic/31.elibrary.html

Seite 19 2013 Portfolio Presentation GIZ in Viet Nam 9/18/2017

Implemented by

http://www.tvet-vietnam.org/



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