Tutorial de Crystall Ball - Oracle
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OracleCrystalBall
OracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizer
OracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagement
OracleCrystalBallClassroomStudentEdition
OracleCrystalBallClassroomFacultyEdition
OracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagementforOracleHyperionEnterprisePlanningSuite
OracleCrystalBallSuite
User'sGuide
Release11.1.2
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CrystalBallUser's Guide,11.1.2
Copyright 188,2012,Oracleand/orits affiliates.Allrights reserved.
Authors:EPMInformationDevelopmentTeam
OracleandJavaareregisteredtrademarksofOracleand/oritsaffiliates.Othernamesmaybetrademarksoftheirrespectiveowners.
This softwareandrelateddocumentationareprovidedunderalicenseagreementcontaining restrictions onuseanddisclosureandareprotectedbyintellectualpropertylaws.Exceptas expresslypermittedinyourlicenseagreementorallowedbylaw,youmaynotuse,copy,reproduce,translate,broadcast,modify,license,transmit,distribute,exhibit,perform,publish,ordisplayanypart,inanyform,orbyanymeans.Reverseengineering,disassembly,ordecompilationofthis software,unless requiredbylaw forinteroperability,is prohibited.
Theinformationcontainedhereinissubjecttochangewithoutnoticeandisnotwarrantedtobeerror-free.Ifyoufind
anyerrors,pleasereportthemtousinwriting.
Ifthis is softwareorrelateddocumentationthatis deliveredtotheU.S.Governmentoranyonelicensing itonbehalfoftheU.S.Government,thefollowing noticeis applicable:
U.S.GOVERNMENTRIGHTS:
Programs,software,databases,andrelateddocumentationandtechnicaldatadeliveredtoU.S.Governmentcustomers
are"commercialcomputersoftware"or"commercialtechnicaldata"pursuanttotheapplicableFederalAcquisitionRegulationandagency-specific supplementalregulations.Assuch,theuse,duplication,disclosure,modification,andadaptationshallbesubjecttotherestrictionsandlicensetermssetforthintheapplicableGovernmentcontract,and,totheextentapplicablebytheterms oftheGovernmentcontract,theadditionalrights setforthinFAR52.229-1,CommercialComputerSoftwareLicense(December2009).OracleAmerica,Inc.,500OracleParkway,RedwoodCity,CA4065.
This softwareorhardwareis developedforgeneraluseinavarietyofinformationmanagementapplications.Itis notdevelopedorintendedforuseinanyinherentlydangerous applications,including applications thatmaycreateariskofpersonalinjury.Ifyouusethis softwareorhardwareindangerous applications,thenyoushallberesponsibletotakeall
appropriatefail-safe,backup,redundancy,andothermeasures toensureits safeuse.OracleCorporationandits affiliatesdisclaimanyliabilityforanydamages causedbyuseofthis softwareorhardwareindangerous applications.
Thissoftwareorhardwareanddocumentationmayprovideaccesstoorinformationoncontent,products,andservicesfromthirdparties.OracleCorporationanditsaffiliatesarenotresponsibleforandexpresslydisclaimallwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttothird-partycontent,products,andservices.OracleCorporationandits affiliates willnotberesponsibleforanyloss,costs,ordamages incurredduetoyouraccess tooruseofthird-partycontent,products,orservices.
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Contents
DocumentationAccessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Chapter1. Welcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
WhoShouldUseThisProgram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
WhatYouWillNeed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
AbouttheCrystalBallDocumentationSet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Scr
een
Captur
eNotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16GettingHelp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
TechnicalSupportandMore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Chapter2. CrystalBallOverview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
AboutModelBuildingandRiskAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
QuantifyingRiskswithSpreadsheetModels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
MonteCarloSimulationandCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
CrystalBallCharts,Reports,andData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
CrystalBallCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
DataExtraction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
OtherCrystalBallFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
CrystalBallTools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
ProcessCapabilityFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
TrendAnalysiswithPredictor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
GoalOptimizationwithOptQuest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
StepsforUsingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
StartingandClosingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
StartingCrystalBallManually . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
StartingCrystalBallAutomatically . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
CrystalBallWelcomeScreen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
ClosingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
CrystalBallMenus,Toolbar,andRibbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
CrystalBallMenusinMicrosoftExcel2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Contents iii
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CrystalBallToolbarinMicrosoftExcel2003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
CrystalBallRibboninMicrosoftExcel2009orLater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
ResourcesforLearningCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Chapter3. DefiningModelAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
TypesofDataCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
AboutAssumptionsandProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
DefiningAssumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
EnteringAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
AdditionalAssumptionFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
EnteringCellReferencesandFormulas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
AlternateParameterSets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
FittingDistributionstoData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
SpecifyingCorrelationsBetweenAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
SettingAssumptionPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
UsingtheCrystalBallDistributionGallery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
DisplayingtheDistributionGallery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
DistributionGalleryWindow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
AddingandModifyingUser-definedDistributionsintheDistributionGallery . . . . . . 51
Creating,Managing,andSharingCategories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Chapter4. DefiningOtherModelElements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Defi
nin
gD
ecision
Var
iab
leCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53DefiningForecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
SettingForecastPreferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
WorkingwithCrystalBallData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Editing CrystalBallData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
SelectingandReviewingCrystalBallDataCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
SettingCellPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
SavingandRestoringModels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
CompatibilityandFileConversionIssues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Chapter5. RunningSimulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
AboutCrystalBallSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Setting RunPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
SettingTrialsPreferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
SettingSamplingPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
SettingSpeedPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
iv Contents
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SettingOptionsPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
SettingStatisticsPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
FreezingCrystalBallDataCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
RunningSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
StartingSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
StoppingandContinuingSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
ResettingSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
Single-steppingSimulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
CrystalBallControlPanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
ManagingChartWindows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
SavingandRestoringSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
SavingCrystalBallSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
RestoringCrystalBallSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
UsingSpreadsheetFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
RunningUser-DefinedMacros . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Chapter6. AnalyzingForecastCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
GuidelinesforAnalyzingSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
UsingForecastCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
DeterminingtheCertaintyLevel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
FocusingontheDisplayRange . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
FormattingChartNumbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
ChangingtheDistributionViewandInterpretingStatistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
SettingForecastPreferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
SettingForecastChartPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
UsingAdditionalForecastFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
FittingaDistributiontoaForecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
DefiningAssumptionsfromForecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
SettingChartPreferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
SettingPreferenceswithShortcutKeys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
BasicCustomizationInstructions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
SettingGeneralChartPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
SettingChartTypes,Colors,andMarkerLines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
CustomizingChartAxesandAxisLabels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
ApplyingSettingstoMultipleCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
ManagingCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
OpeningCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
CopyingandPastingChartstootherApplications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
PrintingCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
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ClosingCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
DeletingCharts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
SelectingAssumptions,Forecasts,andotherDataTypes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Chapter9. AnalyzingOtherCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
AboutCrystalBallCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
UsingOverlayCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
CreatingOverlayCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
CustomizingOverlayCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
UsingDistributionFittingwithOverlayCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
UsingTrendCharts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
CreatingTrendCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
CustomizingTrendCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
UsingSensitivityCharts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
BenefitsandLimitationsofSensitivityCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
CreatingSensitivityCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
SensitivityChartViews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
CustomizingSensitivityCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
UsingAssumptionCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
CreatingandOpeningAssumptionCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
CustomizingAssumptionCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
UsingScatterCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
CreatingScatterCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
CustomizingScatterCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Chapter8. CreatingReportsandExtractingData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
CreatingReports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
BasicStepsforCreatingReports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
SettingReportOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
DefiningCustomReports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
ReportProcessingNotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
ExtractingData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
DataExtractionExamples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Chapter. CrystalBallTools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
UsingtheBatchFitTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
StartingtheBatchFitTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
UsingtheBatchFitWelcomePanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
SettingBatchFitInputDataOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
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SettingBatchFitFittingOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
SettingBatchFitOutputOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
SettingUpBatchFitReports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
RunningtheBatchFitTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
AnalyzingBatchFitResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
UsingtheCorrelationMatrixTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
StartingtheCorrelationMatrixTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
SelectingAssumptionstoCorrelate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
SettingCorrelationMatrixLocationandOrientationOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
RunningtheCorrelationMatrixToolandLoadingData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
AnalyzingCorrelationMatrix Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
UsingtheTornadoChartTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
TornadoChart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
SpiderChart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
LimitationsoftheTornadoChartTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
StartingtheTornadoChartTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
SpecifyingaTornadoChartAnalysisTarget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
SpecifyingTornadoChartInputVariables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
SpecifyingTornadoChartOptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
RunningtheTornadoChartTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
AnalyzingTornadoChartResults. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
UsingtheBootstrapTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
StartingtheBootstrapTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
UsingtheBootstrapWelcomePanel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
SpecifyingForecaststoAnalyzewiththeBootstrapTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
SpecifyingaBootstrapToolMethod. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
SettingBootstrapOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
RunningtheBootstrapTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
AnalyzingBootstrapToolResults. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
UsingtheDecisionTableTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
StartingtheDecisionTableTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
UsingtheDecisionTableWelcomePanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
SpecifyingaTargetForecastforDecisionTableAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
SelectingDecisionVariablesforDecisionTableTesting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
SettingDecisionTableToolOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
RunningtheDecisionTableTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
AnalyzingDecisionTableResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
UsingtheScenarioAnalysisTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
StartingScenarioAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
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SpecifyingaScenarioAnalysisTargetForecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
SpecifyingScenarioAnalysisOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
RunningtheScenarioAnalysisTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
AnalyzingScenarioAnalysisResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
Usingthe2DSimulationTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
Startingthe2DSimulationTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Usingthe2DSimulationWelcomePanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Specifyinga2DSimulationTargetForecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
SortingAssumptionsfor2DSimulationAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
Setting2DSimulationOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
Runningthe2DSimulationTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Analyzing2DSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
UsingtheDataAnalysisTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
StartingtheDataAnalysistool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
UsingtheDataAnalysisWelcomePanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
SpecifyingDataAnalysisInputData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
SettingDataAnalysisOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
RunningtheDataAnalysisTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
AnalyzingDataAnalysisResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
UsingtheCompareRunModesTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
AppendixA. SelectingandUsingProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
UnderstandingProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
AProbabilityExample. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
ContinuousandDiscreteProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
SelectingProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
ProbabilityDistributionDescriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
BetaDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
BetaPERTDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
BinomialDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
CustomDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
DiscreteUniformDistribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
ExponentialDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
GammaDistribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
Geometric Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
HypergeometricDistribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
LogisticDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
LognormalDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
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MaximumExtremeDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
MinimumExtremeDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
NegativeBinomialDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
NormalDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
ParetoDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
PoissonDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
StudentstDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
TriangularDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
UniformDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
WeibullDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
Yes-NoDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
UsingtheCustomDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
CustomDistributionExample1LoadingWeightedData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
CustomDistributionExample2LoadingMixedData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
OtherImportantCustom Distribution Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
TruncatingDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
DistributionParameterSummary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
UsingProbabilityFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
LimitationsofProbabilityFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
ProbabilityFunctionsandRandomSeeds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
SequentialSamplingwithCustomDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
AppendixB. ExtremeSpeedCompatibilityIssues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
CompatibilityIssues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
Multiple-WorkbookModels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
CircularReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
CrystalBallMicrosoftExcelFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
User-DefinedFunctionsandMacros . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
SpecialFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
UndocumentedBehaviorofStandardFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
IncompatibleRangeConstructs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Appe
ndixC. Crysta
lBa
llT
ut
oria
ls
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
Tutorial1FuturaApartments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
StartingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
OpeningtheExampleModel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
RunningSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
ResultsAnalysisDeterminingProfit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
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TakeaLookBehindtheScenes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
ResettingandSingle-Stepping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
ClosingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
TutorialReview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
Tutorial2VisionResearch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
StartingCrystalBallandOpeningtheExampleModel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
ReviewingtheVisionResearchScenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
DefiningAssumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
AppendixD. UsingtheProcessCapabilityFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
PreparingtoUseProcessCapabilityFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
ActivatingtheProcessCapabilityFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
SettingCapabilityCalculationOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
SettingSpecificationLimitsandTargets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
AnalyzingProcessCapabilityResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
ViewingCapabilityMetrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
ViewingLSL,USL,andTargetMarkerLines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
ExtractingCapabilityMetrics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
IncludingCapabilityMetricsinReports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
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DocumentationAccessibility
ForinformationaboutOracle'scommitmenttoaccessibility,visittheOracleAccessibilityProgramwebsiteat
http://www.oracle.com/pls/topic/lookup?ctx=acc&id=docacc.
AccesstoOracleSupportOraclecustomershaveaccesstoelectronic supportthroughMyOracleSupport.Forinformation,visithttp://
www.oracle.com/pls/topic/lookup?ctx=acc&id=infoorvisithttp://www.oracle.com/pls/topic/lookup?
ctx=acc&id=tr
sifyouar
eh
ear
in
gim
pair
ed.
11
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12 DocumentationAccessibility
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Welcome
InThisChapter
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
WhoShouldUseThisProgram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
WhatYouWillNeed... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
AbouttheCrystalBallDocumentationSet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
GettingHelp .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
TechnicalSupportandMore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
IntroductionThisguidedescribeshowtousethecurrentreleaseofthefollowingOracleproducts:
! OracleCrystalBall(includingClassroomFacultyandStudentEditions)
! OracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizer
! OracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagement
Unlessotherwisenoted,whenthisguidereferstoCrystalBall,theinformationappliestoall
versions.
CrystalBallisagraphicallyorientedforecastingandriskanalysisprogramthattakesthe
uncertaintyoutofdecision-making.Itcanhelpyouanswerquestionssuchas,Willwestay
underbudgetifwebuildthisfacility?or,Whatarethechancesthisprojectwillfinishontime?
or,Howlikelyarewetoachievethislevelofprofitability?
Unlikeotherforecastingandriskanalysisprograms,youdonothavetolearnunfamiliarformats
orspecialmodelinglanguages.Togetstarted,allyouhavetodoiscreateaspreadsheet.From
there,thismanualguidesyoustepbystep,explainingCrystalBallterms,procedures,andresults.
AndyoudogetresultsfromCrystalBall.ThroughatechniqueknownasMonteCarlosimulation,
CrystalBallforecaststheentirerangeofresultspossibleforagivensituation.Italsoshowsyou
confidencelevels,soyouwillknowthelikelihoodofanyspecificeventtakingplace.
Introduction 13
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WhoShouldUseThisProgramCrystalBallisfordecision-makers,fromtheanalystexploringthepotentialfornewmarketsto
thescientistevaluatingexperimentsandhypotheses.CrystalBallhasbeendevelopedwithawide
rangeofspreadsheetusesandusersinmind.
YoudonotneedhighlyadvancedstatisticalorcomputerknowledgetouseCrystalBalltoitsfull
potential.Allyouneedisabasic workingknowledgeofthepersonalcomputerandtheabilitytocreateaspreadsheetmodel.
WhatYouWillNeedCrystalBallrunsonseveralversionsofMicrosoftWindowsandMicrosoftExcel.Foracomplete
listofrequiredhardwareandsoftware,seethesystemrequirementslistintheOracleCrystalBall
InstallationandLicensingGuide.
AbouttheCrystalBallDocumentationSetTheOracleCrystalBallUser'sGuideisintendedforstudents,analysts,engineers,executives,and
otherswhowanttolearnhowtousethemainfeaturesofCrystalBall.Asmentionedearlier,
unlessotherwisenoted,theCrystalBalldocumentationpertainstoallcurrentCrystalBall
releases.
TheOracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagementIntegrationGuidecontainsspecial
CrystalBallintegrationinformationforusersofCrystalBallEPMandrelatedproducts.
TheOracleCrystalBallInstallationandLicensingGuidedescribeshow toinstallandlicense
CrystalBall.
Forinformationaboutdistributiondefaultsandformulasplusotherstatisticalinformation,topicsforadvancedusers,andexamples,seetheOracleCrystalBallReferenceandExamples
Guide.
TheOracleCrystalBallPredictorUser'sGuide,OracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizerOptQuest
User'sGuide,OracleCrystalBallDeveloper'sGuideandOracleCrystalBallAPIfor.NET
Developer'sGuideofferadditionalinformationaboutthoseCrystalBallproducts.Noticethat
theOracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizerOptQuestUser'sGuideisonlyforusersofCrystalBall
DecisionOptimizer.
ThisOracleCrystalBallUser'sGuideincludesthefollowingadditionalchaptersandappendices:
!
Ch
apter
2,Cr
ystalBallOver
viewIntroducesCrystalBallandexplainshowitusesspreadsheetmodelstohelpwithriskanalysis
andmanytypesofdecision-making.
! Chapter3,DefiningModelAssumptions
Describeshow todefineassumptioncellsinmodelsandhow tousetheCrystalBalll
DistributionGallery.
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! Chapter4,DefiningOtherModelElements
Describeshow todefinedecisionvariablecellsandforecastcellsinmodels.Italsoexplains
howtosetcellpreferences.
! Chapter5,RunningSimulations
Providesstep-by-stepinstructionsforsettingupandrunningasimulationinCrystalBall.
! Chapter6,AnalyzingForecastCharts
ExplainshowtouseCrystalBallspowerfulanalyticalfeaturestointerprettheresultsofa
simulation,focusingonforecastcharts.
! Chapter9,AnalyzingOtherCharts
Providesadditionalinformationtohelpyouanalyzeandpresenttheresultsofthe
simulationsusingadvancedchartingfeatures.
! Chapter8,CreatingReportsandExtractingData
ProvidesinformationtohelpyoushareCrystalBalldataandgraphicswithother
applications,anddescribeshowtopreparereportswithchartsanddata.
! Chapter,CrystalBallTools
DescribestoolsthatextendthefunctionalityofCrystalBall,suchastheTornadoChartand
DecisionTabletools.
! AppendixA,SelectingandUsingProbabilityDistributions
Describesallthepre-definedprobabilitydistributionsusedtodefineassumptionsinCrystal
Ball,andincludessuggestionsonhow tochooseandusethem.
! Appendix B,ExtremeSpeedCompatibilityIssues
DiscussestheoptionalExtremeSpeedfeatureavailablewithCrystalBallanddescribesits
benefitsandcompatibilityissues.
! AppendixC,CrystalBallTutorials
DemonstratesCrystalBallbasicsandshowshow tousemoreadvancedfeaturesinavariety
ofsettings.
! AppendixD,UsingtheProcessCapabilityFeatures
DiscussestheprocesscapabilityfeaturesthatcanbeactivatedtosupportSixSigma,DFSS,
Leanprinciples,andsimilarqualityprograms.
! Glossary
DefinestermsspecifictoCrystalBallandotherstatisticaltermsusedinthismanual.
ForadditionalinformationaboutmaximizingtheaccuracyandspeedofCrystalBallsimulations
andfindingrelatedpublications,seetheOracleCrystalBallReferenceandExamplesGuide.
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ScreenCaptureNotesAllthescreencapturesinthisdocumentweretakenusingaCrystalBallRunPreferencesrandom
seedsettingof,unlessotherwisenoted.
Duetoroundingdifferencesbetweenvarioussystemconfigurations,youmayobtainslightly
differentcalculatedresultsthanthoseshownintheexamples.
GettingHelp
" TodisplayonlinehelpinavarietyofwaysasyouworkinCrystalBall:
! ClicktheHelpbutton, ,inadialog.
! ClicktheHelptoolintheCrystalBalltoolbarorribboninMicrosoftExcel.
! IntheMicrosoftExcelmenubar,selectHelp,thenCrystalBall,andthenCrystalBallHelp.
! IntheDistributionGalleryandotherdialogs,pressF1.
Note: InMicrosoftExcel2009orlater,clickHelp, ,atendoftheCrystalBallribbon.
NoticethatifyoupressF1inMicrosoftExcel2009orlater,MicrosoftExcelhelpopens
unlessyouareviewingtheDistributionGalleryoranotherCrystalBalldialog.
Tip: Whenhelpopens,theSearchtabisselected.ClicktheContentstabtoviewatableofcontents
forhelp.
ForatableofHelpcommands,seeTable3onpage31.
TechnicalSupportandMoreOracleoffersavarietyofresourcestohelpyouuseCrystalBall,suchastechnicalsupport,
training,andotherservices.Forinformation,see:
http://www.oracle.com/crystalball
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CrystalBallOverview
InThisChapter
AboutModelBuildingandRiskAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
CrystalBallCharts,Reports,andData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
OtherCrystalBallFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Steps
forUsingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
StartingandClosingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26
CrystalBallMenus,Toolbar,andRibbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
Resources
for
Learning
Crystal
Ball . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
AboutModelBuildingandRiskAnalysis
Subtopics
! QuantifyingRiskswithSpreadsheetModels
! MonteCarloSimulationandCrystalBall
CrystalBallisananalyticaltoolthathelpsexecutives,analysts,andothersmakedecisionsby
performingsimulationsonspreadsheetmodels.Theforecaststhatresultfromthesesimulationshelpquantifyareasofrisksodecision-makerscanhaveasmuchinformationaspossibleto
supportwisedecisions.
ThebasicprocessforusingCrystalBallisto:
1. Buildaspreadsheetmodelthatdescribesanuncertainsituation(QuantifyingRiskswith
SpreadsheetModelsonpage18).
2. Runasimulationonit(MonteCarloSimulationandCrystalBallonpage1).
3. Analyzetheresults(CrystalBallCharts,Reports,andDataonpage20).
TopicsinthissectionbuildafoundationforunderstandingthemanywaysCrystalBallandrelatedOracleproductscanhelpyouminimizeriskandmaximizesuccessinmanydecision-
makingenvironments.
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QuantifyingRiskswithSpreadsheetModels
Subtopics
! AssumptionRangesModelInput
! ForecastRangesModelOutput
! AnalyzingCertaintyModelResults
Amodelisaspreadsheetthathasmovedfrombeingadataorganizertoananalysistool.Amodel
representstherelationshipsbetweeninputandoutputvariablesusingfunctions,formulas,and
data.Asthemodelexpands,itmorecloselymatchesthebehaviorofareal-worldscenario.
CrystalBallworkswithspreadsheetmodelscreatedinMicrosoftExcelandcompatibleOracle
applications,suchasOracleHyperionSmartViewforOffice,tohelpyouidentifyandquantify
riskandtheprobabilityofsuccess.
Riskisusuallyassociatedwithuncertainty,whereriskincludesthepossibilityofanundesirable
eventcoupledwithseverity.Itisimportanttoidentifyrisksandtodeterminehow significant
theyare.
Afteryouidentifyrisks,amodelcanhelpyouquantifythem.Quantifyingariskmeans
determiningthechancesthattheriskwilloccurandthecostifitdoes,tohelpyoudecidewhether
ariskisworthtaking.Forexample,ifthereisa25%chanceofrunningoverschedule,costing
you$100,thatmaybeariskyouarewillingtotake.Butifyouhavea5%chanceofrunningover
schedule,knowingthatthereisa$10,000penalty,youmaybelesswillingtotakethatrisk.
Findingthecertaintyofachievingaparticularresultisoftenthegoalofmodelanalysis.Risk
analysistakesamodelandseeswhateffectchangingdifferentvalueshasonthebottomline.Risk
analysiscan:
! Contributetobetterdecision-makingbyquicklyexaminingallpossiblescenarios
! Identifywhichvariablesmostaffectthebottom-lineforecast
! Exposetheuncertaintyinamodel,leadingtoabettercommunicationofrisk
AssumptionRangesModelInput
Foreachuncertainvariableinasimulation,youcandefinethepossiblevalueswithaprobability
distribution.Asimulationcalculatesnumerousscenariosofamodelbyrepeatedlypickingvalues
fromtheprobabilitydistributionfortheuncertainvariablesandusingthosevaluesforthecell.
InCrystalBall,distributionsandassociatedscenarioinputvaluesarecalledassumptions.They
areenteredandstoredinassumptioncells.Formoreinformationonassumptionsand
pr
ob
ab
ilitydistr
ibu
tion
s,seeAb
ou
tAssum
ption
san
dPr
ob
ab
ilityD
istr
ibu
tion
son
page34.
ForecastRangesModelOutput
Sincescenariosproduceassociatedresults,CrystalBallalsokeepstrackoftheforecastsforeach
scenario.Theseareimportantoutputsofthemodel,suchastotals,netprofit,orgrossexpenses.
Foreachforecast,CrystalBallremembersthecellvalueforallthetrials(scenarios).After
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hundredsorthousandsoftrials,youcanviewsetsofvalues,thestatisticsoftheresults(suchas
themeanforecastvalue),andthecertaintyofanyparticularvalue.Chapter6providesmore
informationaboutchartsofforecastresultsandhow tointerpretthem.
AnalyzingCertaintyModelResults
Th
efor
ecastr
esu
ltsin
gr
aph
icandnum
er
icform
sh
owth
evalu
esgen
er
atedfor
each
for
ecastandalsotheprobabilityofobtaininganyvalue.CrystalBallnormalizestheseprobabilitiesto
calculateanotherimportantnumber:thecertainty.Forecastcharts(Table1,CrystalBall
Charts,onpage20)arekeyanalysistools.
ThechanceofanyforecastvaluefallingbetweenInfinityand+Infinityisalways100%.
However,thechanceorcertaintyofthatsameforecastbeingatleastzero(whichyoumay
wanttocalculatetomakesurethatyoumakeaprofit)maybeonly45%.Foranyrangeyou
define,CrystalBallcalculatestheresultingcertainty.Thisway,notonlydoyouknow thatthe
companyhasachancetomakeaprofit,butyoucanalsoquantifythatchancebysayingthatthe
companyhasa45%chanceofmakingaprofitonaventure(aventureyoumay,therefore,decide
toskip).
MonteCarloSimulationandCrystalBall
Spreadsheetriskanalysisusesspreadsheetmodelsandsimulationtoanalyzetheeffectsofvarying
inputsonoutputsofthemodeledsystem.
Traditionalmethodsofriskanalysishavelimitations:
! Changingonlyonespreadsheetcellatatimemakesitvirtuallyimpossibletoexplorethe
entirerangeofpossibleoutcomes.
! What-ifanalysisalwaysresultsinsingle-pointestimatesthatdonotindicatethelikelihood
ofachievinganyparticularoutcome.Whilesingle-pointestimatesmaytellyouwhatispossible,theydonottellyouwhatisprobable.
CrystalBallusesMonteCarlosimulationtoovercomelimitationsencounteredwithtraditional
spreadsheetanalysis:
! Youcandescribearangeofpossiblevaluesforeachuncertaincellinaspreadsheet.
Everythingyouknowabouteachassumptionisexpressedallatonce.Forexample,youcan
definethebusinessphonebillforfuturemonthsasanyvaluebetween$2500and$3950,
insteadofusingasingle-pointestimateof$3000.CrystalBallthenusesthedefinedrangein
asimulation.
! WithMonteCarlosimulation,CrystalBalldisplaysresultsinaforecastchartthatshowstheentirerangeofpossibleoutcomesandthelikelihoodofachievingeachofthem.Inaddition,
CrystalBallkeepstrackoftheresultsofeachscenarioforyou.
CrystalBallimplementsMonteCarlosimulationinarepetitivethree-stepprocess,describedin
TakeaLookBehindtheScenesonpage245.
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MonteCarlosimulationrandomlygeneratesarangeofvaluesforassumptionsthatyoudefine.
Theseinputsfeedintoformulasdefinedinforecastcells.Youcanusethisprocesstoexplore
rangesofoutcomes,expressedasgraphicalforecasts.Youcanview anduseforecastchartsto
estimatetheprobability,orcertainty,ofaparticularoutcome.
MonteCarlosimulationwasnamedforMonteCarlo,Monaco,wheretheprimaryattractions
arecasinoscontaininggamesofchance.Therandombehavioringamesofchanceroulette
wheels,dice,andslotmachinesissimilartohow MonteCarlosimulationselectsvariablevaluesatrandomtosimulateamodel.Whenyourolladie,youknowthateithera1,2,3,4,5,
or6willcomeup,butyoudonotknowwhichforanyparticulartrial.Itisthesamewiththe
variablesthathaveaknownrangeofvaluesbutanuncertainvalueforanyparticulartimeor
event(forexample,interestrates,staffingneeds,stockprices,inventory,phonecallsperminute).
CrystalBallCharts, Reports, andData
Subtopics
! Crystal
Ball
Charts! Reports
! DataExtraction
CrystalBalloffersseveraltypesofchartsandreportstodisplayresultsgraphicallyand
numerically.Youcanalsoextractsimulationvaluesforuseinotherapplications.Theseanalysis
toolsareallaccessedthroughtheAnalyzemenuortheAnalyzegroupontheCrystalBallribbon.
CrystalBallCharts
Ch
ar
tsar
eth
em
ain
an
alysistoolspr
ovidedin
Cr
ystalBall.Each
ch
ar
toffer
ssever
alviewsand
manycustomizationsettingstoenhancedatapresentation.
Table1 CrystalBallCharts
NameandReference
Example Description
Forecastcharts(Chapter6,AnalyzingForecastCharts)
ForecastchartsarethebasictoolforCrystalBallresultsanalysis.Theyshowarangeofvaluesrepresentingpossibleandprobablevaluesforagivenforecastbasedonassumptiondefinitions.Youcanuseforecastchartstoevaluatethecertaintyofobtainingaparticularvalueorrangeofforecast
values.
You
can
also
fit
standard
distributions
tochartedforecasts.
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NameandReference
Example Description
Overlaycharts(UsingOverlayChartsonpage10)
Overlaychartsdisplayfrequencydatafrommultipleforecastsinonelocationsoyoucancomparedifferencesorsimilaritiesamongthem.Youcancustomizethemandfitdistributionsasforforecastcharts.
Trendcharts(UsingTrendChartsonpage114)
Trendchartsdisplaythecertaintyrangesofallforecastsonasinglechartasaseriesofpatternedbands.Forexample,thebandthatrepresentsthe0%certaintyrangeshowstherangeofvaluesintowhichaforecasthasa0%chanceoffalling.
Sensitivitycharts(UsingSensitivityChartsonpage120)
Sensitivitychartsuserankcorrelationstoshowtheinfluenceofeachassumptioncellonaparticularforecastcell,indicatingwhichassumptionsarethemostorleastimportantinthemodel.
Scattercharts(UsingScatterChartsonpage
131)
Scatterchartsshowcorrelations,dependencies,andotherrelationshipsbetweenpairsofforecastsandassumptionsplottedagainsteachother.
Rela
tionships
a
re
plotted
a
s
a
cloud
of
points
orsymbolsalignedinagrid.InMatrixview,eachselectedvariableisplottedagainsttheotherselectedvariablestoshowtherelationshipsamongthem.
Assumptioncharts
(UsingAssumptionChartsonpage128)
Assumptionchartsshowrandomvaluesforthecurrentsimulationlayeredovertheassumptionsidealprobabilitydistribution.Theyaregeneratedautomaticallyeachtimeasimulationruns.
OptQuestcharts(GoalOptimizationwithOptQuestonpage
25)
N/A OptQuestcharts,availableinCrystalBallDecisionOptimizer,displayvariableoptimizationresults.
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NameandReference
Example Description
Predictorcharts(TrendAnalysiswithPredictoronpage25)
N/A Predictorchartsdisplaytheresultsoftime-seriesandlinearregressionanalysesperformedbythePredictortoolinCrystalBall.
Reports
CrystalBallhaspowerfulreportingcapabilities.Youcancustomizereportstoincludethe
followingchartsanddata:
! Assumption,forecast,overlay,trend,sensitivity,scatter,and(optionally)OptQuestcharts
! Forecastsummaries,statistics,percentiles,andfrequencycounts
! Assumptionparameters
! Decisionvariables
ReportsarecreatedasMicrosoftExcelworkbooks.Youcanmodify,print,orsavethereportin
thesamewayasanyotherworkbook(CreatingReportsonpage13)
Figure1showspartofaforecastreportfortheVisionResearchexamplemodel.
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Figure1 SampleForecastReport
DataExtractionYoucanextractforecastinformationgeneratedbyasimulationmanuallyorautomaticallyand
placeitinaMicrosoftExcelworkbook.Youcanextractseveraltypesofdata(ExtractingData
onpage144).
Figure2showsstatisticsdataextractedfromasalesspreadsheet.
Figure2 ExtractedStatisticsData
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OtherCrystalBallFeatures
Subtopics
! CrystalBallTools
! ProcessCapabilityFeatures
! TrendAnalysiswithPredictor
! Goal
Optimization
with
OptQuest
TopicsinthissectionintroduceadditionalfeaturesofCrystalBall.
CrystalBallTools
TheRunmenuoffersavarietyofspecialtoolsforanalyzingdataanddisplayingresultsinmore
detail.SelectRun,thenMoreToolstousetoolsdiscussedinthefollowingsections(inMicrosoft
Excel2009orlater,selectMoreToolsintheToolsgroupoftheCrystalBallribbon):
! UsingtheBatchFitToolonpage14Automaticallyfitsselectedprobability
distributionstomultipledataseries
! UsingtheCorrelationMatrixToolonpage156Rapidlydefinesandautomates
correlationsofassumptions
! UsingtheTornadoChartToolonpage161Individuallyanalyzestheimpactofeach
modelvariableonatargetoutcome
! UsingtheBootstrapToolonpage168Addressesthereliabilityandaccuracyofforecast
statistics
! UsingtheDecisionTableToolonpage194Evaluatestheeffectsofalternatedecisions
inasimulationmodel
! UsingtheScenarioAnalysisToolonpage198Displayswhatinputscreatedparticular
outputs
! Usingthe2DSimulationToolonpage182Independentlyaddressesuncertaintyand
variabilityusingatwo-dimensionalsimulation
! UsingtheDataAnalysisToolonpage18Importsoneormoreseriesofrawdataand
performsavarietyofanalysesonthem
! UsingtheCompareRunModesToolonpage13ForusersofCrystalBallDecision
Optimizer,determineshowmuchfasteramodelrunsinExtremeSpeed
! IntegrationtoolsAvailabletousersofCrystalBallEPMandrelatedproducts,enable
CrystalBallsimulationsandtime-seriesanalysestobeusedwithOracleHyperionPlanning,OracleHyperionStrategicFinance,andOracleHyperionSmartViewforOffice
AlloftheseexcepttheintegrationtoolsarediscussedinChapter,CrystalBallTools.The
integrationtoolsareonlyavailableinOracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagement
andrelatedproductsandaredescribedintheOracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformance
ManagementIntegrationGuide.
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Additionaltools,PredictorandOptQuest,arealsolistedontheRunmenu(ortheToolsgroup
inMicrosoftExcel2009orlater)incertaineditionsofCrystalBall.Foradescriptionofthese
features,seeTrendAnalysiswithPredictoronpage25andGoalOptimizationwith
OptQuestonpage25.
Process
Ca
pa
bilit
yFeat
ures
IfyouuseSixSigmaorotherqualitymethodologies,CrystalBallsprocesscapabilityfeatures
canhelpyouimprovequalityintheorganization.Forabriefdescriptionofthesefeaturesand
howtousethem,seeAppendixD,UsingtheProcessCapabilityFeatures.
TrendAnalysiswithPredictorYoucanusePredictortoprojecttrendsbasedontime-seriesdata,suchasseasonaltrends.
Forexample,youcanlookathomeheatingfuelsalesforpreviousyearsandestimatesalesfor
thecurrentyear.Youcanalsorunregressionanalysisonrelatedtime-seriesdata.
FormoreinformationaboutPredictor,seetheOracleCrystalBallPredictorUser'sGuide.
GoalOptimizationwithOptQuestDecisionvariablesarevariablesyoucancontrol,suchasproductpricingorinvestmentlevels.
IfyouhaveOptQuest,anoptionalfeatureavailableinCrystalBallDecisionOptimizer,youcan
useittofindthebestvaluesforthedecisionvariablestoobtainthepreferredoutcomes.
Forexample,youcanfindtheoptimalinvestmentmixthatmaximizestheprobabilityofa
portfoliosreturnbeingaboveacertainthreshold.
FormoreinformationaboutOptQuest,seetheOracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizerOptQuest
User'sGuide.
StepsforUsingCrystalBallFollowthesegeneralstepstocreateandinterpretsimulationswithCrystalBall.Theremaining
chaptersprovidedetailedinstructions:
1. CreateaspreadsheetmodelinMicrosoftExcelformatwithdataandformulacellsthat
representthesituationtoanalyze(QuantifyingRiskswithSpreadsheetModelsonpage
18).2. StartCrystalBall(StartingandClosingCrystalBallonpage26).
3. Loadaspreadsheetmodel.
4. UsingCrystalBall,defineassumptioncellsandforecastcells.Ifappropriateforthesituation,
youcanalsodefinedecisionvariablecells.
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Formoreinformation,seeEnteringAssumptionsonpage34andcontinueonwith
Chapter4.
5. Setrunpreferencesforthesimulation(Setting RunPreferencesonpage65).
6. Runthesimulation(StartingSimulationsonpage91).
9. Analyzetheresults.SeeUsingForecastChartsonpage98forsuggestions.
8. ConsiderusingPredictororOptQuest,ifavailable,forfurtheranalysis.. TakeadvantageofthemanyresourcesavailabletohelpyougetthemostoutofCrystalBall.
StartingandClosingCrystalBallYoucanstartCrystalBallmanuallyoryoucansetupCrystalBalltostartautomaticallywhenever
youstartMicrosoftExcel.
StartingCrystalBallManually
" TostartCrystalBallmanually,inWindows,selectStart,thenAllPrograms,thenOracleCrystal
Ball,andthenCrystalBall.
MicrosoftExcelopenswiththeCrystalBallmenusandtoolbar.IfMicrosoftExcelisalready
runningwhenyougivethiscommand,CrystalBallopensanew instanceofMicrosoftExcel.
StartingCrystalBallAutomatically
" TosetCrystalBalltostartautomaticallyeachtimeyoustartMicrosoftExcel:
1 InWindows,selectStart,thenAllPrograms,thenOracleCrystalBall,andthenApplication
Manager.
2 SelectAutomaticallylaunchCrystalBallwhenMicrosoftExcelstarts.
3 Click
OK.
Note: YoucanalsousetheMicrosoftExcelAdd-insManagertoopenCrystalBallwithin
MicrosoftExcelwhenMicrosoftExcelisalreadyopenandtocloseCrystalBallwithout
closingMicrosoftExcel.Forinstructions,seetheOracleCrystalBallInstallationand
LicensingGuide.
CrystalBallWelcomeScreenThefirsttimeyoustartCrystalBall,theWelcomescreenopens,similartoFigure3,following.
DependingontheCrystalBallversion,thelicensefeatures,andwhetheryouareusinga
purchasedoratrialversion,thescreenmaydiffersomewhatfromthisillustration.
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Figure3 CrystalBallWelcomeScreen
You
can
u
seth
eWelcom
escr
een
to:! SetcertainpreferencesaccordingtohowyouuseCrystalBall
! Enableaccessibilitypreferencestoaccommodatethosewithvisualimpairments(seethe
onlineOracleCrystalBallAccessibilityGuide).
! View theCrystalBallWebsite
! DisplaytheOracleTechnologyNetwork,whereyoucandownloadapplicationsand
documentation
! DisplaytheCrystalBallonlinedocumentationinHTMLformat
! DisplayinstructionsforlicensingCrystalBall
! ClosethescreenandstartusingCrystalBall
! Displaythedialogforopeningworkbookfiles
! DisplaytheOracleCrystalBallExamplesGuideandopenexampleworkbooks
Foranexplanationoftheprimaryapplicationtypeandaccessibilitysettings,clickthe
button.
ClosingCrystalBall
" TocloseCrystalBall,useoneofthefollowingoptions:
! Right-clicktheCrystalBallicon, ,intheWindowstaskbarandselectClose,or
! CloseMicrosoftExcel.
Ifyouwant,youcanselectRun,andthenResetSimulationtoresetthemodelandthenselect
File,thenSavetosaveitbeforeyoucloseCrystalBall.
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CrystalBallMenus, Toolbar, andRibbon
Subtopics
! CrystalBallMenusinMicrosoftExcel2003
! CrystalBallToolbarinMicrosoftExcel2003
! CrystalBallRibboninMicrosoftExcel2009orLater
ThissectiondescribestheCrystalBalltoolbarandassociatedmenusforCrystalBallusedwith
MicrosoftExcel2003.ItalsodescribestheCrystalBallribbonusedwithMicrosoftExcel2009
orlaterversions.ForadditionalinformationaboutCrystalBallmenusandcommands,including
tablesofkeyboardequivalents,seetheOracleCrystalBallAccessibilityGuide.
CrystalBallMenusinMicrosoftExcel2003WhenCrystalBallopensinMicrosoftExcel2003,thefollowingspecialmenusareaddedtothe
standardMicrosoftExcelmenus:
! Definemenuenablesyoutodefineandselectassumptions,decisionvariables,and
forecasts;freezesassumptions,decisionvariables,andforecastssotheyarenotincludedin
simulations;alsoletsyoucopy,pasteandclearassumptions,decisionvariables,andforecasts
aswellassetcellpreferences.
! Runmenustarts,stops,continues,andresetssimulations;runssimulationsastepata
time;ifavailable,startsOptQuestorPredictor;openstheCrystalBalltools:BatchFit,
CorrelationMatrix,TornadoChart,Bootstrap,DecisionTable,ScenarioAnalysis,2D
Simulation;savesandrestoressimulationresults;andsetsrunpreferences.
! Analyzemenucreatesandopenschartsandreports;cascadesandcloseswindows;and
extractsdata.
! Help,thenCrystalBallmenuOpensonlinehelpforCrystalBall;displaysthefollowing
items:theAboutBoxforCrystalBall,OracleCrystalBallUser'sGuidesandother
documentationinAdobeAcrobatformat,CrystalBallexamples,theCrystalBallWelcome
Screen,letsyouaccessCrystalBalllicensingfeatures,andmore.
Formoreinformationoneachcommand,viewonlinehelpfromwithinCrystalBallusingthe
Helpmenuorbutton.
CrystalBallToolbarinMicrosoftExcel2003TohelpyouuseCrystalBallinMicrosoftExcel2003,acustomizedtoolbarprovidesinstant
accesstothemostcommonlyusedmenucommands(Figure4onpage2).
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DefineCommands
TheDefinecommandsspecifysettingsforthethreetypesofCrystalBalldatacells:assumptions,
decisionvariables,andforecastsandalsoenableyoutoperformthefollowingtasks:
! Setcellpreferences
! SelectCrystalBalldatacells
! Copy,paste,andclearCrystalBalldata
! FreezedatacellstoexcludethemfromCrystalBallsimulations
Fordetails,seeChapter3,DefiningModelAssumptionsandChapter4,DefiningOther
ModelElements..
RunCommands
YoucanusethebasicRuncommandstostart,stop,continue,reset,andsingle-stepthrough
CrystalBallsimulations.YoucanuseotherRuncommandsto:
! SaveorrestoreCrystalBallsimulationresults
! Setrunpreferences,whichcontrolthenumberoftrials,thesamplingmethod,andother
simulationoptions
Fordetails,seeChapter5,RunningSimulations.
AnalyzeCommands
YoucanusetheAnalyzecommandsto:
! CreateandviewCrystalBallcharts
! Createreports
! Extractdataforexternaluse
Fordetails,seeChapter6,AnalyzingForecastCharts,Chapter9,AnalyzingOtherCharts,
andChapter8,CreatingReportsandExtractingData.
ToolsCommands
YoucanusetheToolscommandstoaccesstheCrystalBalltools,Predictor,andOptQuestwith
anappropriatelicense.Fordetails,seeChapter,CrystalBallTools,
HelpCommands
TheHelpcommandsdisplayonlinehelp,onlinedocuments,examplemodels,theCrystalBall
AboutBox,andmore(Table3,CrystalBallHelpCommands,onpage31).
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Table3 CrystalBallHelpCommands
Command CommandAction
[CrystalBall]Help,
DisplaysonlinehelpforCrystalBall
Resources,
IntheCrystalBallribbon,displaysmenusforCrystalBalltechnicalsupport,CrystalBallandEPM
documenta
tion,
exa
mple
models
,
the
Welcome
screen,
a
nd
the
licensing
dia
log
TechnicalSupport OpenstheCrystalBallWebpagewithalinktotechnicalsupport
CrystalBallDocumentation DisplaysalistofavailableonlinedocumentationforCrystalBall
OracleEPMDocumentation DisplaystheOTNindexforOracleEnterprisePerformanceManagementdocumentation,includingCrystalBall
Examples
Guide DisplaysalistofavailableexamplemodelssoyoucanloadthechoiceintoCrystalBall
WelcomeScreen DisplaysaWelcomescreenthatenablesyoutoautomaticallyactivatetheprocesscapabilityfeaturesforqualityprogramssuchasSixSigma,setpercentilepreferencesfrequentlyusedintheOilandGasindustry,andactivateaccessibilityfeaturesforthosewithvisualimpairments.
Licensing DisplaystheActivateaLicensedialogforenteringaCrystalBallserialnumberandactivatingalicense
About[CrystalBall],
OffersversionandotherinformationaboutthecurrentCrystalBallreleaseincludingthecurrentusername
ResourcesforLearningCrystalBallTheeasiestwaytolearnCrystalBallistoworkthroughthetutorialsinAppendixC.Tutorial1
isbasicandwillhelpyouunderstandwhatCrystalBalldoesandhowitworks.Tutorial2shows
moreabouthow tocreatemodelsandrunCrystalBallsimulations.Ifyouarenew toCrystalBall,considercompletingthetutorialsbeforeyoucontinueusingtheproduct.
Forinformationonsupport,training,andreferralservices,seetheCrystalBallWebsiteat:
http://www.oracle.com/crystalball
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3
DefiningModelAssumptions
InThisChapter
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
TypesofDataCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
AboutAssumptionsandProbabilityDistributions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
DefiningAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
EnteringAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
AdditionalAssumptionFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
Using
the
Crystal
Ball
Distribution
Gallery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48
IntroductionThesetopicsprovidestep-by-stepinstructionsfordefiningassumptioncellsinCrystalBall
modelssosimulationscanberunagainstthem.Theyalsodescribehow tousetheDistribution
Gallerytoorganizefavoritedistributionsanddefinecategoriesofdistributionstosharewith
others.
Ifyouareanew user,considerworkingthroughTutorial1inAppendix C,beforeyoureadthis
chapter.
TypesofDataCellsCrystalBallusesthreetypesofdatacellsasinputsandoutputs:
! Assumptioncellsareinputcellsthatcontainvaluesthatyouareunsureof:theuncertain
independentvariablesintheproblemyouaretryingtosolve.Theassumptioncellsmust
containsimplenumericvalues,notformulasortext.
! Decisionvariablecellsareinputcellsthatcontainvaluesthatarewithinthecontrolto
change.Thedecisionvariablecellsmustcontainsimplenumericvalues,notformulasor
text.TheseareusedbysomeoftheCrystalBalltoolsandbyOptQuest.
! Forecastcells(dependentvariables)areoutputcellsthatcontainformulasthatrefertoone
ormoreassumptionanddecisionvariablecells.Theforecastcellscombinethevaluesinthe
assumption,decisionvariable,andothercellstocalculatearesult.Aforecastcell,for
example,maycontaintheformula=C17*C20*C21.
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AboutAssumptionsandProbabilityDistributionsForeachuncertainvariableinasimulation,orassumption,youdefinethepossiblevalueswith
aprobabilitydistribution.Thetypeofdistributionyouselectdependsontheconditions
surroundingthevariable.Commondistributiontypesarenormal,triangular,uniform,and
lognormal,asshowninFigure6.
Figure6 CommonDistributionTypes
Duringasimulation,CrystalBallcalculatesnumerousscenariosofamodelbyrepeatedlypicking
valuesfromtheprobabilitydistributionfortheuncertainvariablesandusingthosevaluesfor
eachassumptioncell.Commonly,aCrystalBallsimulationcalculateshundredsorthousands
ofscenarios,ortrials,injustafewseconds.Thevaluetouseforeachassumptionforeachtrial
isselectedrandomlyfromthedefinedpossibilities.
Becausedistributionsforindependentvariablesaresoimportanttosimulations,selectingand
applyingtheappropriatedistributionisthemainpartofdefininganassumptioncell.Formore
informationonprobabilitydistributions,seeUnderstandingProbabilityDistributionson
page15.
DefiningAssumptions
" Todefin
ean
assum
ption:
1 Determine
the
most
appropriate
probability
distribution
for
each
uncertain
variable:
! Listeverythingyouknowabouttheconditionssurroundingthisvariable.
! ReviewthedescriptionsoftheprobabilitydistributionsinSelectingProbability
Distributionsonpage1.
! ConsiderusingCrystalBallsdistributionfittingfeature,describedinFitting
DistributionstoDataonpage40.
! Selectthedistributionthatcharacterizesthevariable.
2 Entertheassumptionasdescribedinthenextsection,EnteringAssumptionsonpage34.
EnteringAssumptions
" Toenteranassumption:
1 Selectacellorarangeofcells.Thecellscanbeblankorhavenumericvalues,buttheycannothave
formulasortext.
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2 SelectDefine,andthenDefineAssumption, .
(InMicrosoftExcel2009orlater,clicktheupperhalfoftheDefineAssumptionicon.)
Foreachselectedcellorcellsintheselectedrange,CrystalBalldisplaystheDistribution
Gallerydialog(Figure9).
Figure9 DistributionGallerywiththeBasicCategorySelected
3 IntheDistributionGallery,selectthedistributionyouwantfromthegallery.TheBasiccategorycontains
severalfrequentlyuseddistributions.ClickAlltoviewalldistributionsshippedwithCrystalBall.For
details,seeUsingtheCrystalBallDistributionGalleryonpage48.
Alternately,clicktheFitbuttontofitadistributiontohistoricaldata,asdescribedinFitting
DistributionstoDataonpage40.
FormoreinformationontheDistributionGallery,seeDistributionGalleryWindowon
page48.
4 When
theDefineAssumptiondialogopens(Figure8),typeinatitleandtheparametersforthe
distribution.Theparameterscanbeeithernumericvaluesorcellreferences.
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Figure8 NormalDistribution
Tochangethedistributiontype,clickGallerytoreturntotheDistributionGalleryandthen
selectanotherdistribution.
5 To
see
moreinformation,clicktheMorebutton, ,neartheNametextbox.
MoreinformationisdisplayedintheDefineAssumptiondialogasshowninFigure.
Figure DefineAssumptionDialog,Expanded
IntheexpandedDefineAssumptiondialog,youcan:
! Entertruncationminimumandmaximumvaluesintheminimumandmaximum
truncationtextboxes(justbelow thedistribution,accessiblebytabbing).
! Usethetruncationgrabberstotruncatethevaluerange.
! Usenumericspinners(arrowsbesidethetextbox)toadjustparametersettings.
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! ClicktheLessbutton, ,tohidetheminimumandmaximumvaluetextboxesand
truncationgrabbers.(Formoreinformationabouttruncatingdistributions,see
Truncating Distributionsonpage22.)
YoucanperformthefollowingactivitiesinboththestandardandexpandedDefine
Assumptiondialog:
! ClicktheGallerybuttontodisplaytheDistributionGallerywindowandselectanother
distribution.
! ClicktheCorrelatebuttontodefinecorrelationsasdescribedinSpecifyingCorrelations
BetweenAssumptionsonpage44.
! SelectEdit,andthenAddinthemenubartoaddthecurrentlydefinedassumption
distributiontotheFavoritescategoryorauser-definedcategoryintheDistribution
Gallery.
! Useothermenucommandstocopythechart,pasteitintoMicrosoftExceloranother
application,printdata,changetheview,usealternateparameters,setassumptionand
chartpreferences,anddisplayhelpasdescribedinAdditionalAssumptionFeatures
onpage39.
6 When
you
have
finished
entering
parameters
to
define
the
assumption,clickEnter.
Thedistributionchangestoreflectthevaluesyouentered.IfyouclickOKinsteadofEnter,
CrystalBallacceptstheparametersandclosesthedialog.
9 ClickOK.
Ifyouselectedarangeofcells,repeatthesestepstodefinetheassumptionforeachcell.
Addit
iona
lAss
umpt
ionFeat
ures
Subtopics
! EnteringCellReferencesandFormulas
! AlternateParameterSets
! FittingDistributionstoData
! SpecifyingCorrelationsBetweenAssumptions
! SettingAssumptionPreferences
Asyouenterassumptionparameters,youcanusecellreferencesandalternateparameters.If
youhavehistoricaldataavailable,youcanuseCrystalBallsdistributionfittingfeaturetohelp
simplifytheprocessofselectingaprobabilitydistribution.Youcanalsospecifycorrelations
betweenassumptionsorfreezeassumptionstoexcludethemfromasimulation.
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EnteringCellReferencesandFormulas
Subtopics
! Dynamicvs.StaticCellReferences
! RelativeReferences
! AbsoluteReferences
! Range
Names
! Formulas
Inadditiontonumericvalues,youcanenterareferencetoaspecificcellinaparametertextbox.
Cellreferencesmustbeprecededbyanequalsign(=).Cellreferencescanbeeitherabsoluteor
relative.Youcanalsoenterformulasandrangenames.
Ifnecessary,youcanpressF4tochangereferencesfromrelativetoabsoluteorbacktorelative.
Thisalsoappliestocellreferencesintextboxesotherthanassumptionparameters.
Note: Allcellreferencesinparametersaretreatedlikeabsolutereferenceswhencuttingand
pastingCrystalBalldata.CrystalBallalwaysstoresthecellreferenceinA1formateveniftheMicrosoftExcelpreferenceissettoR1C1format.TheglobalR1C1formatpreference
isnotaffectedbyrunningCrystalBall,butthenamerangesare,infact,changedtoA1
formatsincethatisthewayCrystalBallstoresthem.
" Toshowcellreferencesinsteadofcurrentvalueswhenyouentertheminparametertext
boxes,selectParameters,andthenShowCellReferencesintheDefineAssumptiondialog.
Dynamicvs. StaticCellReferences
Cellreferencesinassumptionparametersaredynamicandareupdatedeachtimetheworkbookisrecalculated.Dynamic cellreferencinggivesyoumoreflexibilityinsettingupmodelsbecause
youcanchangeanassumptionsdistributionduringasimulation.
Othertypesofcellreferencesarestatic,suchastheassumptionnametextboxandcorrelation
coefficients.Thesecellreferencesarecalculatedonceatthebeginningofasimulation.
RelativeReferences
Relativereferencesdescribethepositionofacellrelativetothecellcontainingtheassumption.
Forexample,supposeanassumptionincellC6referstocellC5.IftheassumptioninC6iscopied
tocellC,therelativereferencetoC5willthenrefertothevalueincellC8.Withrelativereferences,youcaneasilysetupawholerow orcolumnofassumptions,eachhavingsimilar
distributionsbutslightlydifferentparameters,byperformingjustafew steps.Anabsolute
reference,ontheotherhand,alwaysrefersbacktotheoriginallyreferencedcell,inthiscaseC5.
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FittingDistributionstoData
Subtopics
! UsingDistributionFittingforAssumptions
! ConfirmingtheFittedDistribution
! DistributionFittingNotes
! Locking
Parameters
When
Fitting
Distributions
! FilteringValuesWhenFittingDistributions
Ifyouhavehistoricaldataavailable,CrystalBallsdistributionfittingfeaturecansubstantially
simplifytheprocessofselectingaprobabilitydistributionwhencreatingassumptions.Notonly
istheprocesssimplified,buttheresultingdistributionmoreaccuratelyreflectsthenatureofthe
datathaniftheshapeandparametersofthedistributionwereestimated.
Distributionfittingautomaticallymatcheshistoricaldataagainstprobabilitydistributions.A
mathematicalfitdeterminesthesetofparametersforeachdistributionthatbestdescribethe
characteristicsofthedata.Then,theclosenessofeachfitisjudgedusingoneofseveralstandard
goodness-of-fittests.Thehighestrankingfitischosentorepresentthedata.YoucanselectfromamongalldistributionssupportedbyCrystalBallexcepttheyes-nodistribution.
UsingDistributionFittingforAssumptions
" Tousedistributionfittingwhencreatingoreditinganassumption:
1 Selectthecellwhereyouwanttocreateanassumption.
Itcanbeblankorcontainasimplevalue,notaformula.
2 Select
Define,
and
then
DefineAssumption,
.
(InMicrosoftExcel2009orlater,clicktheupperhalfoftheDefineAssumptionicon.)
3 IntheDistributionGallery,clickFittoselectthesourceofthefitteddata.
TheFitDistributiondialogopens.
4 Selectadatalocation.
! Ifthehistoricaldataisinaworksheetintheactiveworkbook,selectRange,andthen
enterthedatascellrange.Iftherangehasaname,youcanenterthename,preceded
byan=sign.
! Ifthehistoricaldataisinaseparatetextfile,clickTextFile,andtheneitherenterthepath
andnameofthefileorclickBrowsetosearchforthefile.Ifyouwant,youcanselect
Columnandenterthenumberofcolumnsinthetextfile.
Whenyouuseafileasthesourceofdata,eachdatavalueinthefilemustbeseparated
byeitheracomma,atabcharacter,aspacecharacter,oralistseparatordefinedin
WindowsRegionalandLanguageOptionspanel.Ifactualvaluesinthefilecontain
commasorthedesignatedlistseparator,thosevaluesmustbeenclosedinquotation
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marks.Allowableformatsforvaluesareidenticaltothoseallowedwithintheassumption
parameterdialog,includingdate,time,currency,andnumbers.
5 Specifywhichdistributionsaretobefitted:
! AutoSelectperformsabasicanalysisofthedatatoselectadistributionfittingoptionand
rankingmethod.Ifthedataincludesonlyintegers,fittingtoalldiscretedistributions
(withtheexceptionofYes-No)iscompletedusingtheChi-squarerankingstatistic
choice.
! AllContinuousfitsthedatatoallofthebuilt-incontinuousdistributions(these
distributionsaredisplayedassolidshapesontheDistributionGallery).
! AllDiscretefitstoalldiscretedistributionsexceptyes-noandusestheChi-squareranking
statistic.
! Choosedisplaysanotherdialogwhereyoucanselectasubsetofthedistributionsto
includeinthefitting.
! ThefinalsettingselectsthedistributionthatwashighlightedontheDistributionGallery
whenyouclickedtheFitbutton.
Ifyoutrytofitnegativedatatoadistributionthatcanonlyacceptpositivedata,thatdistributionwillnotbefittedtothedata.
6 Specifyhowthedistributionsshouldberanked.
Inrankingthedistributions,youcanuseanyoneofthreestandardgoodness-of-fittests:
! Anderson-Darling.ThismethodcloselyresemblestheKolmogorov-Smirnovmethod,
exceptthatitweightsthedifferencesbetweenthetwodistributionsattheirtailsgreater
thanattheirmid-ranges.ThisweightingofthetailshelpstocorrecttheKolmogorov-
Smirnovmethodstendencytoover-emphasizediscrepanciesinthecentralregion.
! Kolmogorov-Smirnov.Theresultofthistestisessentiallythelargestverticaldistance
betweenthetwocumulativedistributions.
! Chi-Square.Thistestistheoldestandmostcommonofthegoodness-of-fittests.Itgauges
thegeneralaccuracyofthefit.Thetestbreaksdownthedistributionintoareasofequal
probabilityandcomparesthedatapointswithineachareatothenumberofexpected
datapoints.Thechi-squaretestinCrystalBalldoesnotusetheassociatedp-valuethe
wayotherstatisticaltests(e.g.,torF)do.
Thefirstsetting,AutoSelect,selectstherankingstatisticautomaticallybasedonseveral
factors.Ifalldatavaluesareintegers,Chi-Squareisselected.
9 Opti
on
l
Ifyouknowthedatacorrespondstocertainshape,location,orotherspecialparametervalues
for
some
distributions,
select
Lockparameters
and
enter
appropriate
values
in
the
LockParametersdialog(LockingParametersWhenFittingDistributionsonpage43).
8 Opti
on
l
By
default,onlyvaluesfortheselectedrankingstatisticaredisplayedintheComparison
Chartdialog.Toshowvaluesforallthreestatistics,selectShowAllGoodness-of-fitStatisticsatthe
bottomoftheFitDistributiondialog.
OptionlTofilterdataforfittingbyexcludingorincludingcertainvalueranges,selectFilterdata
(FilteringValuesWhenFittingDistributionsonpage44).
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10 ClickOK.
TheComparisonChartopens(ConfirmingtheFittedDistributiononpage42).
ConfirmingtheFittedDistribution
WhentheComparisonChartopens(Figure10),thefitteddistributionsaredisplayedinthe
ComparisonChartdialog,startingwiththehighest-rankeddistribution(bestfit)downthroughtothelowest(worstfit).
Figure10 ComparisonChartwithGoodnessofFitView,Chi-SquareRankingStatistic
" Toconfirmwhichoftheselecteddistributionstouseforanassumption:
1 Use
theComparisonChart
dialog
to
visually
compare
the
quality
of
the
fits
or
to
view
the
goodness-of-fitstatistics.Youcanperformanyoftheseoptionaltasks:
! UsetheNextandPreviousbuttonstoscrollthroughthefittedprobabilitydistributions.
Eachprobabilitydistributionisshownsuperimposedoverthedata.
! SelectPreferences,andthenCharttochangechartfeatur