TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
-
Upload
da-morales -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
0
Transcript of TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
1/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
dkuhdkjhfgazkcfyBogkhc.iag
5#622 wazdy
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf
Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy h` Tviya` ky
@fw Fzk Jfoh`y Ketfz Fcfitha`y
jx Dkuhd Gazkcfy
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
2/29
;
IMKRTFZ A@F
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf
Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy h` Tviya` ky @fwFzk Jfoh`y Ketfz Fcfitha`y
H mkuf jff` oftth`o zf{vfyty ezag kzav`d tmf iav`tzx tak`kcx~f wmkt mkrrf`fd h` tmf TVYD yimaac jakzd
fcfitha` tmhy wffl _ma wa` k`d wmkt dafy ht gfk`1
Tmf zyt {vfytha` hy fkyx ta k`ywfz ya wf ik` oft tmayf
ekity avt ae tmf wkx zhomt `aw
Ky ae tmf thgf ae tmhy wzhth`o# k`d tmh`oy mkuf t
imk`ofd gvim cktfcx# ht krrfkzy tmkt tmf tmzff arf` yfkty
whcc oa ta Lzhytfc Eaytfz k`d h`ivgjf`t Gkzl Ytfofgk`wma jatm oat kjavt ;9& ae tmf uatf eaccawfd jx Ikg
Nvkzf~ wma zfifhufd ;2& ae tmf uatf
Tmhy gfk`y tmf `fw TVYD yimaac jakzd whcc jf
oaufz`fd jx tmzff rfarcf wma iagjh`fd ekhcfd ta fuf` oft
42& ae tmf uatf# jvt jfh`o a` tmf TVYD yimaac jakzd
dafy `at gklf a`f rarvckz k`xwkxy# kt cfkyt `at h` k oaad
wkxNvyt kyl Ghimkfc Mhily kjavt mhy h`tfzuhfw a` tmf Dkhcx
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
3/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
:
Ymaw
Tmf zfkya` ht mky tklf` gf k efw dkxy ta wzhtf daw`gx tmavomty hy jfikvyf tmf yhtvktha` hy ufzx iagrchiktfd
Zkihyg mky jff` rfzefitfd h` Tviya` k`d he H wky k
wazlh`o a` k rachthikc yihf`if dhyyfztktha` tmhy wavcd jf
gx thtcf
Maw ta oft Rzaozfyyhuf Dfgaizkty ta f`kjcf zkihyt
Zfrvjchik` rachihfy> Ezag Lck`yjklf ta Dh}hfizkty ta
OzhnkcuhytkyJfeazf ia`th`vh`o a`# cft vy jf icfkz kjavt tmf zkihyg
h`uacufd mfzf _f da`t gfk` zkihyg ky h` am tmkt rfzya`
hy zkihyt jfikvyf `a a`f hy zkihyt k`xgazf @at fuf`
Zvyyfcc Rfkzif k`d Ymfzhee Kzrkha wma mkuf Ckth`ay chlf
Ytfuf Ga`tf`foza ky ezhf`dy `a a`f hy k zkihyt
Xft zkihyg ythcc tmzhufy
H` TVYD tmkt zkihyg mky k` aeihkc iktfoazx tmkt `aa`f ik` dhyrvtf tmkt hy l`aw` ky Yfozfoktha` wmhim wky
yvrrayfd ta mkuf jff` jk``fd jkil h` ;864 h` kcc rvjchi
yimaacy Xft ketfz tmzff dfikdfy v`dfz k efdfzkc
dfyfozfoktha` azdfz# Tviya`y ckzofyt yimaac dhytzhit wky
rckifd jkil v`dfz ht ketfz ht wky chetfd h` :228 ketfz Nam`
Rfdhia`f jfikgf TVYD yvrfzh`tf`df`t k`d Gkzl
Ytfofgk` jfikgf jakzd rzfyhdf`t Tmhy efdfzkcdfyfozfoktha` azdfz ythcc krrchfy ta TVYD# k`d tmh`oy mkuf
oattf` ya jkd tmkt tmfx kzf `aw l`awh`ocx jzfklh`o tmf
azdfz yh`if tmh`oy kzf ya jkd tmkt tmfx kzf kczfkdx h`
tzavjcf# ya wmx imk`of tmkt `aw
Yfzhavycx
Tmf `f}t imkrtfz h` TVYD Zkihyg hy df`htfcx kjavt
ta jfoh` h` tmhy mhytazhi k`d yxgjachi xfkz ae :2;:# wmfzf
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
4/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
9
6:2 xfkzy ketfz ;48:# ivctvzkc k`d mhytazhikc of`aihdf
ia`th`vf h` tmf 6:2 kzfk iadf# ck`d ae tmf jk``h`o aeGf}hik` Kgfzhik` mhytazx k`d chtfzktvzf ickyyfy# ck`d ae
jk``fd jaaly ae Imhik`a k`d @kthuf Kgfzhik` kvtmazy#
k`d wmkt gklfy tmhy yhtvktha` ya iagrchiktfd h` tmf
ck`d ae tmf rzaozfyyhuf ytza`omacd ae Tviya`# Kzh~a`k#
wmfzf 4 avt ae 6 TVYD jakzd gfgjfzy kzf Dfgaizkty
k`d 9 kzf ezag k ozavr l`aw` v`aeihkccx ky
Ozhnkcuhytky az tmayf v`dfz tmf iaggk`d ae Tviya`yImhik`a lh`ogklfz Da` Zkvc Ozh nk cuk# VY
Ia`ozfyygfgjfz k`d eazgfz Ck Zk~k V`hdk gfgjfz
K cat mky imk`ofd h` tmf 4 dfikdfy yh`if Ck Zk~k
V`hdk gaufgf`t# k`d tmf ykgf hy tzvf eaz Tviya`y
Imhik`a oadektmfz# wma ufzx yxgjachikccx jfok` mhy aw`
zhyf ta rawfz a` tmf TVYD yimaac jakzd
@aw tmkt xav l`aw wma wa` tmf fcfitha`# mfzf kzf k
chyt ae tmh`oy tmkt gvyt jf ia`yhdfzfd h` azdfz ta k`kcx~f
k`d iagf ta xavz aw` ia`icvyha` kjavt Tviya`y evtvzf h`
Ckth`a fdviktha`
; Tmf mhomcx k`thihrktfd k`d kcc'rawfzevc V htkzx
Ytktvy Rck` -VYR( whcc jf gkdf rvjchi tmhy Ezhdkx#
@aufgjfz 8tm# :2;:: Tviya`y ckzofyt yimaac dhytzhit hy jzalf# h` dfjt kt
cfkyt $;? ghccha` Rzar :24 wky k rayyhjcf yacvtha`
gkdf jx Nam` Rfdhia`fy ezhf`d K`` Fuf ezag tmf
Ihuhchtx Ev`d tmkt wavcd mkuf gkdf tmf
tfgrazkzx ; if`t fdviktha` tk} tmkt f}rhzfy yaa`
rfzgk`f`t Rzar :24 ekhcfd tmhy wffl
9 Yvrfzh`tf`df`t Rfdhia`fy ia`tzkit wky f}tf`dfdzhomt jfeazf tmhy Fcfitha`# k`d ky tmf gkh`
ajytkicf ta rzaozfyy h` TVYD k`d eaz Ckth`a
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
5/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
4
fdviktha`# tmf zfkya` mf zfgkh`y h` rawfz
rzauhdfy h`yhomt h`ta tmf rachthiy ae fdvikth`oCkth`ay
4 TVYD hy v`dfz gvcthrcf Aeif ae Ihuhc Zhomty
h`ufythoktha`y# k`d gazf kzf iagh`o
6 Maw ga`fx mky jch`dfd caikc Dfgaizkty caikccx#
ky `ktha`whdf# wma ekhc ta ytk`d vr eaz nvythif h`
f}imk`of eaz rfzya`kc rawfz Tmf TVYD zkif hy
ccfd whtm gk`x yvim ytazhfy Tmf yho`hik`if ae Zkvc Ozhnkcuky cfokix
iagfy evcc ihzicf ky tmhy `fw imkrtfz h`
Tviya`y mhytazx jfoh`y
Kcc ae tmhy gvyt jf ia`yhdfzfd jfeazf iagh`o ta k`x
gfk`h`oevc ia`icvyha`y# ky xav whcc yff
IMKRTFZ T_A
Efdfzkc Dfyfozfoktha` Azdfz kokh`yt TVYD
H` tmf cktf ;852y# Zkvc Ozhnkcuk wky a`f ae tmf mk`devc ae
Imhik`ay tmkt iavcd jf eav`d kt tmf V`hufzyhtx ae Kzh~a`k
k`d taoftmfz tmhy ygkcc ozavr ytkztfd k caikc imkrtfz ae
tmf Gauhghf`ta Fytvdhk`thc Imhik`a df K~tck` -GFImK(
Tzk`ycktfd ht jkyhikccx gfk`y ht hy k Imhik`a Ytvdf`t
gaufgf`t# k`d ht wky `ffdfd# whtm cfyy tmk` ;22
Imhik`ay kttf`dh`o tmf VKA`f ae tmf dfgk`dy ae GFImK wky tmf izfktha` ae
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
6/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
6
Imhik`a Ytvdhfy Yimaacy wfzf fuf` gvim wazyf jkil
tmf` wmf` ht ikgf ta cfkz`h`o k`x ae tmf mhytazx tmkt taalrckif mfzf jfeazf Gk`hefyt Dfyth`x# jfeazf tmf gxtmhikc
iawjaxy ikgf ta tkgf tmf _hcd _fyt k`d tklf ikzf ae tmf
ykukof h`dhk` rzajcfg
A`f ytazx H zfikcc hy tmkt yimaacy a` tmf yavtmyhdf oat
tmfhz jaaly ezag tmf `aztmyhdf yimaacy wma wfzf
dhyikzdh`o tmfg jfikvyf tmfx wfzf oftth`o `fw fdhtha`y
Tmfzf kzf gk`x ytazhfy ae zkihkc h`nvythif tmkt xav ik``d# k`d avt ae tmhy gaufgf`t kzayf Zkvc Ozhnkcuk wma
wavcd zv` ta jfiagf tmf zyt Imhik`a a` tmf TVYD
yimaac jakzd
Mf cayt h` ;8?: eaz jfh`o taa zkdhikc# wmhim wky tmf
xfkz ae tmf Ck Zk~k V`hdk rkztx
Ck Zk~k wavcd jf k tfzg tmkt wavcd mkv`t mhg k`dTVYD fuf` ta tmhy dkx eavz dfikdfy cktfz
Ozhnkcuk wavcd f`d vr yfzuh`o tmzff tfzgy a` tmf
yimaac jakzd# tmf ykgf `vgjfz ae tfzgy mhy dkvomtfz
Kdfchtk Ozhnkcuk mky yfzufd# mkuh`o wa` mfz tmhzd tfzg h`
:2;2 wmhim hy vr h` :2;4 Tmhy jht ae h`eazgktha` whcc jf
vyfevc cktfzHt wky v`dfz Zkvcy tfzg a` tmf yimaac jakzd tmkt
TVYD efcc v`dfz k dfyfo azdfz# k`d h` tmkt thgf wmhcf mf
mky zhyf` ta Rhgk Iav`tx yvrfzuhyaz# tmf` ta VY
Ia`ozfyygk` eaz mhy yh}tm tfzg `aw# TVYD hy ythcc v`dfz
tmhy dfyfo azdfz+
@aw ekyt'eazwkzdh`o ta zfif`t xfkzy# tmf TVYD yimaacjakzd kdartfd tmf Rayt'V`htkzx Rck` h` :228 Tmf a`cx
dhyyf`th`o uatf wky tmkt ae Gkzl Ytfofgk` wma ykhd tmkt
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
7/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
5
tmf zfkya` mf arrayfd tmf RVR wky jfikvyf ht f}rk`dfd
Gf}hik` Kgfzhik` Ytvdhfy
Ytfofgk` nvyt wa` zffcfitha` tmhy wffl
Tmfzf hy k cat oah`o a` kt tmhy thgf h` tmf ckyt 4'5 xfkzy#
jvt tmf eaivy mfzf hy a` tmf dfyfo hyyvf
Nvyt jzhfx# h` :225 wky wmf` tmf wkz a` Ftm`hi Ytvdhfy
jfok` whtm Ytktf Yvrfzh`tf`df`t Tag Maz`f gklh`o htmhy tar tkzoft Tmzff jhccy cktfz# `aw whtm Oaufz`az Nk`ft
@krachtk`ay ufta oa`f ketfz ymf gaufd ta Magfck`d
Yfivzhtx# Nk` Jzfwfz wavcd yho` MJ::=; h`ta ckw k efw
wffly ketfz YJ;2?2 Tmkt hy k`atmfz rza`o h` mhytazx tmkt
gfzofy whtm tmhy ytazx ufzx yaa`
Efdfzkc Nvdof Jvzx# jkyfd h` Tviya`# zfkch~fd tmkt
TVYD wky ythcc v`dfz k dfyfo azdfz ketfz tmzff dfikdfy# yamf dfihdfd ht wky thgf ta gauf Mf azdfzfd tmf rkzthfy
h`uacufd ta wzhtf vr k Rayt'V`htkzx Rck`< v`htkzx jfh`o
tmf tfzg tmkt zfefzy ta `at jfh`o yfozfoktfd k`xgazf
A`if tmf RVR wky kdartfd# mf wavcd chet tmf dfyfo azdfz
k`d TVYD iavcd gauf a` h` oaad ekhtm ky ca`o ky
zkihyg dhd`t ia`th`vf
_mkt gk`x da `at zfkch~f hy tmkt h` Tviya`# fuf` whtmDfgaizkty h` imkzof ae fufzx cfufc ae oaufz`gf`t#
h`icvdh`o tmf yimaac jakzd# zkihyg whcc kcwkxy `d k magf
k`d fuf` rzatfitha` jx tmf f`kjcfzy ae zkihyg
H` :228# tmf dfyfo azdfz hy chetfd
H` :2;2# Kzh~a`k jk`y Ftm`hi Ytvdhfy Tmhy wky tmf
ykgf xfkz ky YJ;2?2 k`d atmfz izk~h`fyy# h`icvdh`o tmf
jk` ae tfkimfzy whtm kiif`ty jx tmf Kzh~a`k Dfrkztgf`tae Fdviktha`
Tmf cv`kthiy mkd tklf` aufz tmf kyxcvg
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
8/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
?
Tmf` yagftmh`o mkrrf`fd V`dfz tmf `fw zvcf ae
TVYD yvrfzh`tf`df`t Nam` Rfdhia`f k`d yimaac jakzdrzfyhdf`t Gkzl Ytfofgk`# tmf ekgavy @h`tm Iavzt ae
Krrfkcy# tmf ykgf a`f tmkt mfkzd tmf yvrfz'hgraztk`t
Gf`df~ uy _fytgh`ytfz yimaac dfyfozfoktha` wmhim wavcd
jf k rzfifdf`t eaz tmf Jzaw` u Jakzd dfihyha`# zfufzyfd
Nvdof Jvzxy cheth`o ae tmf dfyfo azdfz a` TVYD# rckih`o
ht jkil v`dfz k efdfzkc dfyfo azdfz yh`if zkihyg wky ythcc
zv``h`o zkgrk`t v`dfz Rfdhia`f k`d Ytfofgk`y zvcfTmhy wky k mvof fgjkzzkyygf`t ta Nvdof Jvzx wma mkd
mhy dfihyha` zfufzyfd Jvt Jvzx chufy h` Tviya`# k`d ky k
rawfzevc efdfzkc nvdof mf f`naxy kiifyy ta tmf vrrfz
fimfca` ae Tviya`y fchtf# yvim ky gfgjfzy ae YKCI
wmhim Nam` Rfdhia`f wky tmf Uhif Rzfyhdf`t ae jfeazf
tklh`o aufz TVYD Jfh`o k Zfrvjchik` krrah`tff h` tmf
ck`d ae Kzh~a`k yvoofyty k cat kjavt a`fy ytk`if a` hyyvfyzfcktfd ta Gf}hik`y
Ht wky kcya k yckr h` tmf ekif ta Rfdhia`f# wma hy h`
imkzof ae tmf dhytzhit tmkt tmf efdfzkc iavzty kzf ikcch`o
yfozfoktfd V@DFZ MHY _KTIM
Ky rkzt ae tmhy @h`tm Ihzivht dfihyha`# tmf RVR wavcd
zfgkh` h` rckif v`thc tmf Yrfihkc Gkytfzy `fw V`htkzx
Ytktvy Rck` ofty zfufkcfd tmhy EzhdkxJvt tmhy dfihyha` wky h` :2;;# k`d v`dfz tmf RVR tmf
GKY rzaozkg wky rzatfitfd k`d ht fuf` ytktfy tmkt ht
ymavcd jf f}rk`dfd
@aw tmayf h` imkzof ae TVYD -Dfgaizkty( eav`d
tmfgyfcufy h` k rzfdhikgf`t tmkt ymavcd `at mkuf f}hytfd#
jvt zfgfgjfz tmhy hy k `fw zkihyg tmkt Tviya` mky
izfktfdTmf Efdfzkc iavzt azdfz izfktfd k`d rzatfity GKY#
wmhcf k `fw ytktf ckw tzhfy ta jk` ht K`x ytvdf`t ae
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
9/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
=
Kgfzhik` Oaufz`gf`t whcc tfcc xav tmkt tmf Efdfzkc
oaufz`gf`t tzvgry tmf ytktfK`x ytvdf`t ae mhytazx whcc tfcc xav tmkt tmhy hy f}kitcx
tmf yhtvktha` tmkt hy zv` h`ta h` tmf mhytazx ae zkihyg< tmf
ytktfy zhomty uy efdfzkc azdfzy tzxh`o ta f`d yfozfoktha` h`
tmf Yavtm
_htm tmf efdfzkc oaufz`gf`t a` tmfhz yhdf kokh`yt tmf
ytktf# wmkt wavcd tmf Dfgaizkty imaayf ta da1 A`
Nk`vkzx ;2tm# ketfz k zfiaggf`dktha` jx Nam` Rfdhia`f#tmf Mhily zfyacvtha` wky rzarayfd wmhim wavcd jk` GKY
hggfdhktfcx Ht rkyyfd 4'; whtm Kdfchtk uath`o @A
Rkzt ae tmhy azdfz wavcd jf tmf hggfdhktf jk``h`o ae
jaaly# wmhim h`icvdfd ? jaaly tmkt gf`tha`fd jx `kgf
tmkt ik``at jf tkvomt avt ae kt kcc# k`d k`x jaaly tmkt
gf`tha`fd zkif# ickyy k`d arrzfyyha` wmhim hy wmkt cfd
kyyhytk`t yvrfzh`tf`df`t Kjfc Gazkda ta jk` TmfTfgrfyt# Ymklfyrfkzfy ytazx kjavt iaca`h~ktha` k`d
yckufzx h` tmf @fw _azcd# ezag Ivzthy Kiaytky Ckth`a
Chtfzktvzf ickyy
@aw tmf jho dkx hy mfzf k`d tmhy wffl hy wmf` tmf Yrfihkc
Gkytfzy zfrazt hy zfcfkyfd ta tmf rvjchi Ht hy f}rfitfd jxgk`x tmkt kt cfkyt twa mvof imk`ofy whcc tklf rckif>
; Jhch`ovkc Fdviktha # jk``fd jx tmf Ytktf ae
Kzh~a`k# whcc zftvz` ta TVYD
: Gf}hik` Kgfzhik` Ytvdhfy# kcya jk``fd# whcc
zftvz` ta TVYD
Tmhy hggfdhktfcx jzh`oy vr k dhcfggk# k`d tmhy hy wmxtmhy wmacf kyia hy ya iagrchiktfd Tmfzf kzf ya gk`x
`aaly k`d izk``hfy tmkt gklf tmf yrzfkdh`o ae
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
10/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
8
fdviktha`kc jvttfz ta tmf wmacf ae tmf jzfkd yvzekif
`fkzcx hgrayyhjcf Rfzmkry tmhy hy wmx k ygaatmfz tazthcckymavcd jf vyfd# jvt F`ochym gve`y zfgkh`
Rfdhia`f wavcd hyyvf yfufzkc rzf'fgrthuf ytzhlfy ta lffr
GKY kwkx ezag TVYD# wmhim wky ajuhavy ta fufzxa`f k
xfkz koa wmf` Rfdhia`f krrah`tfd Dz Cvrhtk Okzihk ' k
rfzya` wma wky kczfkdx rvjchicx l`aw` ta mktf GKY#
wma tmavomt GFImK ymavcd jf jk``fd ezag TVYD eaz
jfh`o v`Kgfzhik` k`d wma arrayfd tmf k``vkc CVCKIia`efzf`if eaz jfh`o taa zkdhikc ' ta yvrfzuhyf tmf GKY
rzaozkg
Ta vyf k` k`kcaox ta f}rckh` tmf zyt ytzhlf# cft gf zfefz
ta k` k`kcaox zfcktfd ta k tarhi k`atmfz rza'GKY
navz`kchyt# Nfee Jhoofzy# ezf{vf`tcx wzhtfy kjavt h` tmf
Mve`ota` Rayt Mf tf`dy ta eaivy a` twa tarhiy# k`d `at
whtmavt kiihdf`t H jfchfuf< Kzh~a`k -h` rkzthivckz tmfkttkil a` Ckth`ay( k`d iakc gh`h`o
Gav`tkh`'tar zfgaukc hy k jkd tmh`o ymavcd jf
ytarrfd# jvt tmf gh`h`o iazrazktha`y nvythex tmf rzaifyy
wmhim h`icvdfy tmf f}rcayha` ae tmf tar ae k gav`tkh` ta
oft kt tmf iakc v`dfz`fktm# jx ykxh`o tmkt ketfz tmf iakc hy
zfgaufd tmf gav`tkh`'tar hy zfytazfd Xav ik` yff
tmfyf ckvomkjcf zfytazktha`y eaz xavzyfce k`d xavhggfdhktfcx zfkch~f tmkt tmfzf hy `a yvjythtvtf eaz tmf
azhoh`kc rfkl tmkt wky zfkimfd# tmf jfkvtx k`d l`awcfdof
k`d mhytazx k`d ivctvzkc yho`hik`if# k`d tmfyf
zfytazktha`y whtm ozkufc kzf k` h`yvct ta tmf chef# rck`t k`d
k`hgkc k`d ev`oh k`d jkitfzhk# tmkt a`if tmzhufd a` tmf
gav`tkh`
@at a`cx hy tmf tar dfytzaxfd# jvt ya hy fufzxtmh`odaw`mhcc ezag tmfzf# ky tmf azhoh`kc gav`tkh`tar hy
dvgrfd aufz tmf ichee h`ta tmf ukccfxy jfcaw# yagfthgfy
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
11/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
;2
ytarrh`o tmf aw ae zhufzy tmkt jzavomt tmf wktfz ae chef
eaz of`fzktha`y
Tmfzf hy `a zfrckifgf`t tmkt hy kiifrtkjcf Nvyt ythil
whtm tmf gav`tkh`tar a` wmhim chef tmzhufd
Gav`tkh`'tar zfgaukc hy wmkt Rfdhia`f hy tzxh`o ta yfcc
Ckth`ay `aw Zktmfz tmk` tmf cft gho`a` ae Gf}hik`
Kgfzhik` Ytvdhfy# wmhim wky izfktfd jx tmf Tviya`iaggv`htx k`d wmhim hy rzauf` ta icayf tmf kimhfufgf`t
okr whtm Ckth`a ytvdf`ty# Rfdhia`f `aw wk`ty ta ymauf
tmf imfkr mkgjvzofz gfkt ae gvcthivctvzkc ivzzhivcvg
daw` avz tmzakty
_mhcf tmf hdfk ae gvcthivctvzkchyg hy k oaad a`f# h`
fdviktha`kc rzkithif ht hy `at k rfdkoaox tmkt ik` zfrckif
GKY Jfeazf Kgfzhik` Mhytazx wky kjcf ta jf uhfwfdezag k Gf}hik` Kgfzhik` rfzyrfithuf# jfeazf jaaly iavcd
jf zfkd jx kvtmazy tmkt xav zfcktfd gazf ta< h`icvdh`o
Imhik`a k`d @kthuf Kgfzhik` kvtmazy Jvt `aw kcc tmkt
ik` jf cfkz`fd kzf ymazt y`hrrfty h` tmf mhytazx jaaly#
eaat`atfy h` tmf rktm ae Kgfzhik` Gk`hefyt Dfyth`x# gfzf
f}ifzrty h` mvof k`tmacaohfy ae ytazhfy
Ya jfeazf jk``h`o tmf GKY rzaozkg ht krrfkzy# jkyfda` zfgkzly jx jakzd gfgjfz Ghovfc Ivfuky a` tmf `homt
tmkt Rfdhia`f zfd GKY dhzfitaz Yfk` Kzif ezag TVYD#
tmkt k dfkc mkd jff` zfkimfd jfeazfmk`d tmkt wavcd
fchgh`ktf GKY k`d zfrckif ht whtm k Gvcthivctvzkc
Ivzzhivcvg Ta mfcr yfkc tmhy dfkc# mf rvt Dz Kvovyth`f
Zagfza h` imkzof ae tmhy tkyl# k`d wmf` kylfd he mf
wavcd zfkccx yfcc avt mhy iaggv`htx# Zagfza wavcdzfgkzl tmkt mf mkd mhy ekghcx ta tmh`l ae zyt
. . .
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
12/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
;;
Fufzxa`f mky k iayt
H` kddhtha`kc ta tmhy Gvcthivctvzkc Ivzzhivcvg wmhim `a
a`f zfkccx l`awy maw f}kitcx hy yvrrayfd ta jf
hgrcfgf`tfd -xav `ffd ta tzkh` tfkimfzy# jvx gazf jaaly
k`d zfyavzify# fti(# Rfdhia`f k`d mhy jakzd izfktfd tmf
Gf}hik` Kgfzhik` Ytvdf`t Yfzuhify dfrkztgf`t ta kcya
zfrckif GKY Tmf `fw GKYY rzaozkg aeefzfd `a ickyyfy#
nvyt kiifyy ta tvtazy k`d mfcr he `ffdfd Tmhy gfk`y tmktTVYD hy oah`o jkilwkzdy h` tfzgy ae rzaozfyy yh`if ht hy
`at ya gvim tmkt ytvdf`ty `ffd tvtazy ta rkyy tmfhz
-K`oca'( Kgfzhik` Mhytazx ickyy# hty tmkt tmfx `ffdfd tmf
ickyy ta jf gkdf gazf zfcfuk`t ta tmfg# wmhim hy wmkt
GKY kiiagrchymfd
Ya Rfdhia`f `aw mky twa mkcufy wmhim da`t fuf` kddvr ta k wmacf# cfkuh`o k mvof macf k`d dah`o `atmh`o ta
icayf tmf ozawh`o kimhfufgf`t okr tmkt Ckth`ay ekif#
fyrfihkccx h` TVYD wmhim hy aufz 52& Ckth`a
Tmf Ckth`a iaggv`htx mky zfnfitfd jatm ae tmfyf mkce'
kyyfd krrzakimfy# dfgk`dh`o tmf cft'gho`a` ae GKY ta
jf jzavomt jkil eaz avz ytvdf`ty wma dfyfzuf tmf jfyt XftRfdhia`f mky yagf rachthiay eaacfd# k`d k chttcf rachthikc
yvrrazt ta evccc tmf foay ae evtvzf ikzffzy ik` oa k ca`o
wkx
Gazf kjavt tmhy cktfz
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
13/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
;:
IMKRTFZ TMZFF
Jzalf
Eaz f}kgrcf# rfarcf yvim ky gxyfce tmh`l ht hy k jho
ghytklf ta mkuf tmf gayt zfif`t Uhif'Rzfyhdf`t ae YKCI
h` imkzof ae Tviya`y ckzofyt yimaac dhytzhit wmhim ia`tzacy
mv`dzfdy ae ghccha`y ae dacckzy Tmf ia`yrhzkix wky
ajuhavy ezag tmf jfoh``h`oYKCI wky rvymh`o twa rzarayhtha`y h` :2;2 A`f#
wmhim ekhcfd# wavcd mkuf tklf` ia`tzac ae tmf Ihtx ae
Tviya` Tmf atmfz# wmhim rkyyfd# kccawfd TVYD ta ytkzt
yfcch`o aee ukcvkjcf rzarfztx eaz rf``hfy a` tmf dacckz< k
dfufcarfzy dzfkg Ta f`yvzf tmhy gkytfz rck`# YKCI
rvymfd hty Uhif Rzfyhdf`t ky tmf `f}t TVYD
yvrfzh`tf`df`t k`d uahck< Rzar 42: k`d Rfdhia`f iagf h`kt tmf ykgf thgf kcgayt f}kitcx twa xfkzy koa
Rzar 42: kccawfd TVYD ta ytkzt yfcch`o aee hty
rzarfzthfy
Mfzf hy tmf twhytfd tmh`o Tmf rarvcktha` h` Tviya` hy
ozawh`o# xft TVYDy rarvcktha` lffry ymzh`lh`o ky wmhtf
homt aiivzy ta imkztfz yimaacy Ya tmhy cfkufy yimaacy whtm
cfyy ytvdf`ty# wmhim cfkdy ta tmfg jfh`o icayfd k`d tmf`jfh`o yacd aee imfkr ta dfufcarfzy
Caal kt tmf _zhomtytaw` Yimaac f}kgrcf ta cfkz` gazf
kjavt tmhy rzaifyy Ht wky kjcf ta jf yacd v`dfz Rzar 42:#
k`d tmhy rzhgf rzarfztx a` tmf fkyt'yhdf ae taw`# `fytcfd
kga`oyt acd gfy{vhtfy kca`o tmf zhufz wky kjcf ta jf yacd
ta tzk`yeazg h`ta mhomfz'df`yhtx ia`day Gk`x thgfy k
rckif'`kgf tmkt f`dy h` taw` hy k mhytazhi rckif# kcaiktha` tmkt gfk`y yagftmh`o jfeazf Tviya` ozfw k`d
ywkccawfd ht vr# k`d yvim hy tmf ikyf eaz tmhy yimaac rkyt
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
14/29
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
15/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
;4
Yagf 92'42 yimaacy wfzf `aw tkzoftfd eaz ratf`thkc
icayvzf@aw# ytfr kyhdf eaz k gagf`t ezag tmf `k`ify k`d
rachthiy h`uacufd mfzf K tfkimfz hy k yrfihkc rfzya`#
yagfa`f wma hy`t kcwkxy h` ht eaz tmf ga`fx Tmfx da ht
eaz k`atmfz zfkya` @aw xav mkuf tmf mhomcx'rkhd
kdgh`hytzktha` iagh`o h` k`d tfcch`o xav tmkt xavz ikzffz#
xavz yimaac# xavz ickyyzaagy# fufzxtmh`o tmkt xav cauf hy kt
zhyl ae jfh`o lhccfdTmhy rvty k` f`azgavy kgav`t ae ytzfyy a` tmf raazcx'
rkhd fdviktaz Tmf dkgkof hy kczfkdx da`f
Ytfr ; hy ta hdf`thex tmf `a`'arthgkc yimaacy
Ytfr : hy ta ytkzt icayh`o tmfyf `fhomjazmaad yimaacy
Ytfr 9 ae Rfdhia`fy rck` rzaufy kcc tmf ia`yrhzkihfy
iazzfit
@aw wmkt wf da# ketfz icayh`o daw` tmfyf hgraztk`t
yimaacy# hy ta rkyy k ja`d eaz mv`dzfdy ae ghccha`y ae
dacckzy ya tmkt wf ik` jvhcd mvof gfok'yimaacy# az wmkt H
ikcc tmf _kcgkzth~ktha` ae rvjchi fdviktha` Tmhy wazly
avt ozfkt eaz kcc tmf YKCIhfy
Tmf dfufcarfzy oft ghccha`y eaz jvhcdh`o tmfyf `fwyimaacy Tmf h`izfkyfd tzk`yraztktha` iayty ta oft fufzxa`f
ta tmfyf `a`'`fhomjazmaad yimaacy h`izfkyfy tmf `ffdy eaz
tmf Nhg Ichily ae Tviya` wma zfrzfyf`t tmf kvta h`dvytzx
Tmf yimaacy tmkt kzf yacd aee ta jfiagf ia`day jf`ft tmf
Da` Dhkga`dy wma zfrzfyf`t zfkc fytktf
@fufz cft k oaad izhyhy oa ta wkytf
K`d a` tar ae kcc tmhy# oft xavz ezhf`dy ezag tmf
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
16/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
;6
Rfdhia`f'imffzcfkdh`o ozavr l`aw` ky tmf Ihuhchtx Ev`d#
gkdf vr ae Za` Jkzjfz k`d Nk`ft Gkziattf k`d K`` Fuf#tmf _mhtf Rzhuhcfof eav`dktha`# ta jkil xav vr nvyt ky tmfx
dhd ketfz tmf TVYD tzkofdx wmfzf Rfdhia`f mkd ? wagf`
kzzfytfd k`d aufz ;22 TRD mkzkyy k`d yagfthgfy
rmxyhikccx kyykvct tmf Ckth`a iaggv`htx
@aw rvym Rzar :24# wmhim wavcd oft xav fuf` gazf
ga`fx uhk k ; if`t ykcfy tk} @a a`f ik` arrayf ht#
jfikvyf hty eaz fdviktha` @fufzgh`d tmkt yagf ae htoafy ta jvhcd zakdy hty ythcc eaz fdviktha` @fufzgh`d
tmkt yagf ae ht oafy ta mhzf gazf DRY aeifzy hty k`
fdviktha` jhcc dkgght ythil ta tmf yizhrt+
A` Tvfydkx# Fcfitha` Dkx :2;:# Kzh~a`k uatfzy
zfnfitfd Rzar :24 jx k gkzoh` ae kjavt :';
Tmfyf gfk`y tmkt Rfdhia`f k`d TVYD jakzd kzf h`
gfok'tzavjcf wmf` ht iagfy ta `k`ify @fufzgh`d tmkt
twa ae tmf TVYD jakzd gfgjfzy kzf VK Fia`aghiy
rzaefyyazy# h`icvdh`o Gkzl Ytfofgk` wma mky k RmD
ezag GHT _mhcf Dfgaizkty kzf jvyx kdghzh`o mhy a`'
rkrfz izfdf`thkcy# zfkchyty kzf zfkch~h`o tmkt kcc tmkt
Fia`aghiy daitazkc ytzf`otm iavcd`t fuf` jkck`if kyhgrcf jvdoft h` Tviya` Dhd H gf`tha` tmkt tmfzf kzf
ivzzf`tcx T_A VK Fia`aghiy rzaefyyazy a` tmf TVYD
jakzd1
Hty k cat dheefzf`t wmf` xav tzx ta tvz` kcc tmkt kjytzkit
`a`yf`yf h`ta zfkchtx# wmfzf ga`fx hy zfkc k`d rf`dfnkdky
oft xav `awmfzf
H` :2;2 gx kttf`tha` ytkztfd tvz`h`o tawkzdy tmhy gk`
tmkt `a a`f wky tkclh`o kjavt k`d xft mf wky kjavt ta tklf
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
17/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
;5
ia`tzac ae TVYD
Mhy `kgf wky Nam` Rfdhia`f k`d kt tmkt thgf mf wkytmf Uhif Rzfyhdf`t ae YKCI Yagf ae tmf GKY tfkimfzy
mkd tklf` Dz Rfdhia`fy ickyyfy h` tmf VK Fdviktha`
dfrkztgf`t -xfy# tmkty k wmarrh`o 9 VK rzaefyyazy
cfkdh`o TVYD h`ta tmf kjxyy(# k`d tmfx mkd `atfy ae mhg
tkclh`o kjavt oftth`o aufz tmkt gvcthivctvzkc `a`yf`yf
Kyyhghcktf hy wmkt tmfx wfzf tkvomt
Jkil tmf` H wky tzxh`o ta oft Kzh~a`ky zyt Imhik`a ta
tmf VY Yf`ktf fcfitfd Mf hy k cat gazf wfcc'l`aw`
`awkdkxy# jvt jkil tmf` Tmzff Ya`azk`y k`d Tmf
Efktmfzfd Jkytkzd wfzf tmf a`cx rckify xav wavcd `d
`fwy a` Zk`dx Rkzzk~
Ht wky f}kitcx jfikvyf ae Zk`dx k`d GKY tmkt H gft
Lzhytfc Eaytfz# a`f ae tmf `fwfyt TVYD jakzd gfgjfzywma wky tmf tar'uatf ofttfz h` tmf fcfitha` tmhy wffl H
yvoofytfd tmkt Zk`dx kttf`d tmf kcc'`homt uhohc eaz GKY kt
TVYD wmhcf mf wky h` taw`# k`d mf dhd Ht wky cktf h` tmf
`homt# k`d H h`tzadvifd mhg ta Yfk` k`d Kvoohf k`d
atmfzy
Kiiazdh`o ta Lzhytfc# tmhy wky wmf` ymf dfihdfd ta
yvrrazt mhg Mfzf hy k VY Yf`ktf ik`dhdktf iagh`o avt kt`homt ta yvrrazt GKY# mfy oat gx uatf+
Ya wmhcf H wky mfcrh`o whtm tmf Rkzzk~ ikgrkho` H
jfikgf oaad ezhf`dy whtm Lzhytfc _mf` H mfkzd kjavt
Rfdhia`f# H kylfd kzav`d# k`d ht wky Lzhytfc tmkt okuf gf
tmf gayt l`awcfdof ae mhg tmkt zyt xfkz Lzhytfc vyfd ta
wazl h` Ecawh`o _fccy wmhcf Nam` Rfdhia`f wky tmf
yvrfzh`tf`df`t k`d ymf wkz`fd gf kjavt mhy k`th'Ckth`awkxy
Tmhy wky dvzh`o tmf thgf tmkt jhch`ovkc fdviktha` wky
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
18/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
;?
kjavt ta jf jk``fd# k`d Rfdhia`f wky yvim k tzaarfz#
gklh`o tmf ytktf yvrfzh`tf`df`t Tag Maz`f ya ykthyfdtmkt mf wa` yvrfzh`tf`df`t ae tmf xfkz Gk`x ia`yhdfz
tmhy k ckvdkjcf kimhfufgf`t# jvt ta gf hty chlf oftth`o k
gfdkc ae ma`az h` tmf fkzcx ;842y jx tmf Ofzgk` cfkdfz
H kcya cfkz`fd tmkt tmfzf wky tmhy kd tmkt tmf COJT
iaggv`htx taal avt h` tmf yimaac rkrfz Rfdhia`f ikccfd
h` tmf rfzya` jfmh`d ht k`d kylfd wmx tmf mfil tmfx
rvjchymfd ht# yh`if Ecawh`o _fccy mky `a okx ytvdf`tyKdfchtk Ozhnkcuk wky wkz`fd fuf` jx Kvoohf Zagfza
wma vyfd ta tkcl yagf gvim izkr kjavt tmf k`th'GKY
zkihyt Rfdhia`f< wma wavcd mkuf tmavomt mf wavcd mkuf
tklf` mhy yhdf twa xfkzy cktfz h` f}imk`of eaz $82L k xfkz1
Ga`fx aufz Gf}hik`y Fufzxa`f mky k rzhif
Cktfz h` :2;2# Rfdhia`f wky v`k`hgavycx krrzaufd jx
tmf TVYD jakzd H` Dfifgjfz ky k tfgrazkzx kduhyaz ta
TVYD mf wky gklh`o $;222 k dkx ykckzx# k` kgav`t mf
ia`th`vfy ta gklf ta tmhy dkx# h` kddhtha` ta tmavyk`dy rfz
ga`tm h` rfzly yvim ky mhy kvtagajhcf rkilkof wmhim
kccawy mhg ta mkuf k `fw evfc'h`feihf`t tzvil tmkt tklfy
mhg ta k`d ezag mhy Aza Ukccfx magf a` tmf oace iavzyfta ;2;2 fufzxdkx
A` Gkx 9zd# :2;; mf rzaufd f}kitcx maw rawfzevc tmf
tf`tkicfy ae jfh`o rzatfitfd jx YKCI whcc oft xav Ht wky
a` tmkt dkx tmkt mf wky kjcf ta oft aufz ;22 Tviya` rachif
ta TVYD# y`hrfzy a` tmf zaae# daoy# mfchiartfzy# zhat ofkz
kzgfd k`d zfkdx iary ta rzatfit tmf rawfz ytzvitvzf kytmfx tzhfd ta kttkil GKY tmkt `homt
. . .
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
19/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
;=
Yfuf` jzkuf wagf` ytaad vr tmkt `homt ta yrfkl k`d
Rfdhia`f mkd tmfg kcc kzzfytfd eaz Ezff Yrffim _mx tmfrachif wfzf tklh`o azdfzy ezag Rfdhia`f hy k`atmfz
{vfytha`# fyrfihkccx wmf` Rfdhia`f mkd TRD iagf h`
whtm ymhfcdy aufz tmfhz ekify k`d kzgfd ta kzzfyt Kdfchtky
oadgatmfz
Cvrf Ikythcca f`tfzfd tmf TVYD jakzd zaag wkclh`o
h` a` twa izvtimfy# wmhim hy maw tmf 58'xfkz acd dhykjcfd
Gf}hik` Kgfzhik` mhytazx rzaefyyaz ofty kzav`d Ymfytaad vr k`d ytkztfd zfkdh`o ezag GCLy Cfttfz ezag
Jhzgh`omkg Nkhc k`d Rfdhia`f azdfzfd mfz kzzfyt
Tmf rachif tzhfd ta oft mfz ta dzar ta tmf ozav`d ya tmfx
iavcd kzzfyt mfz az wmktfufz iary da wmf` tmfx jzh`o 58'
xfkz acd dhykjcfd wagf` ta tmf ozav`d Tmf f`thzf thgf#
Kdfchtk dhd `atmh`o a` tmf jakzd# `fufz h`tfznfith`o ta ykx
mfx Rfdhia`f# tmkty gx `h`k xav kzf gfyyh`o whtm# jkilaee+
@fufz dhd ymf tfcc tmf iary `at ta jf zavom whtm mfz
@atmh`o
Ht wky icfkz kt tmhy rah`t tmkt Kdfchtk tzvcx wky
Rfdhia`fy Rzh`ifyy
Cktfz tmkt ga`tm# Nk`ft Gkziattf wavcd f}fzt mfz aw`wmhtf rzhuhcfof k`d iagf ta Rfdhia`fy khd @aw# lffr h`
gh`d tmkt tmf X_IK# wmhim Gkziattf wky tmf dhzfitaz ae#
ickhgfd ta jf tmf rckif eaz wagf`y zhomty k`d zkihkc
nvythif Mfzf xav mkuf Gkx 9zd# k dkx wfzf ? _AGF@
wfzf kzzfytfd h` yvrrazt ae zkihkc nvythif azdfzfd
kzzfytfd jx Nam` Rfdhia`f# k`d wmayf yhdf dafy Gkziattf
tklf1Ymf jzavomt taoftmfz mfz ezhf`dy ezag tmf Ihuhchtx Ev`d
ta ykuf Rfdhia`fy hgkof< `fufz ia`yhdfzh`o macdh`o mhg
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
20/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
;8
kiiav`tkjcf Tmfhz k`ywfz wky ta yrf`d caty ae ga`fx
rvtth`o gvzkcy kcc aufz TVYD ykxh`o Jf Lh`dTmf gvzkcy wfzf ia`ytzvitfd jx Jf`y Jfccy# wmhim
yagfmaw jfikgf tmf @ajfc Rfkif Rzh~f h` Tviya` ketfz k
gknaz rzarkok`dk rvym jx tmf Ihuhchtx Ev`d
Ta rzauf maw twhytfd tmhy kof`dk wky# tmf ufzx `f}t
ga`tm ketfz Rfdhia`f jk``fd GKY k`d yf`t if`yazymhr
ga`htazy h`ta tmf ickyyzaagy ta zfgauf tmf jfcaufd jaaly
ky tmf ytvdf`ty k`d tfkimfzy izhfd wmhcf tmfhz rzfihavyl`awcfdof wky jfh`o zfgaufd# Nam` Rfdhia`f wky
kwkzdfd k Jf`y Jfccy+
Lffr tmkt h` gh`d Rfdhia`fy rawfz h` Tviya` hy ufzx
ytza`o kga`oyt Dfgaizkty# `at ya gvim jfikvyf ae
Rfdhia`f# jvt jfikvyf ae YKCI# wmhim wky eav`dfd jx
Dfgaizkt Yh Yimazz# tmf kzimhtfit ae dfytzvitha` jfmh`dtmf iagrcftf dfgachtha` ae Tviya`y daw`taw` jkzzha
IMKRTFZ EAVZ
Ihuhc Zhomty
H` Rhgk Iav`tx# Ifykz Imkuf~ machdkx hy aeihkcTmf ekgavy Kzh~a`k` k`d Ihuhc Zhomty cfkdfz wma
ytkztfd tmf Yh Yf Rvfdf gaufgf`t tmkt jfikgf
Ajkgky Xfy _f Ik` ycaok` dfyfzufy ta jf ma`azfd ky
Kzh~a`k `kthuf ya`
Ht wky Gkzim ae :2;: k`d k yrfihkc fcfitha` wky jfh`o
mfcd ta cc Okjjx Oheeazdy ukiktfd yfkt Za` Jkzjfz wky
zv``h`o v`arrayfd h` tmf rzhgkzx# jvt tmfzf wfzfgvcthrcf Zfrvjchik`y h` tmf zv``h`o# h`icvdh`o GiYkccx
wma ky ae tmhy wzhth`o hy jfkth`o Jkzjfz h` tmf of`fzkc
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
21/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
:2
fcfitha`
Tmfzf wky k Zfrvjchik` dfjktf tmkt wky mfcd kt Ykjh`aMhom Yimaac a` Tviya`y @_ yhdf Ht wky gadfzktfd jx
zhomt'wh`o k`d k`th'GKY zkdha ymaw mayt Na` Nvythif
Icfkzcx tmhy wky k rachthikc fuf`t+
@a rzajcfga ykxy kyyhytk`t yvrfzh`tf`df`t ae mhom
yimaacy Kjfc Gazkda+
Twa wffl cktfz tmf Tviya` iaggv`htx wavcd mkuf hty
k``vkc Ifykz Imkuf~ gkzim Tmhy fuf`t hy kcwkxy zv` jx
tmf Ozhnkcuhytky# gfk`h`o tmayf v`dfz tmf dagh`ha` ae
Zkvc Ozhnkcuk Eaz tmf ckyt dfikdf tmhy rkzkdf ytkztfd kt
Rvfjca Mhom Yimaac# tmf kcgk gktfz ae TVYD jakzd
gfgjfz Kdfchtk Ozhnkcuk
Ht wky jk``fd ezag dah`o ya tmhy xfkzKvoohf Zagfza k`d Kdfchtk Ozhnkcuk kccawfd TVYD ta
tfcc tmf Ckth`a iaggv`htx tmkt tmfx wfzf jk``fd ezag
ifcfjzkth`o Ifykz Imkuf~ a` yimaac ozav`dy jfikvyf# ky
Gazkda tacd tmf `fwy# ht wavcd jf k rachthikc fuf`t
@fufzgh`d tmf Zfrvjchik` dfjktf whtm Na` Nvythif mf
kccawfd+
Kdfchtk# k xfkz ketfz dah`o `atmh`o kokh`yt Rfdhia`f tamfcr mfz `h`k# wavcd da `atmh`o ta mfcr tmf Ifykz Imkuf~
iagghttff ytkzt hty gkzim wfzf ht kcwkxy dafy k`d ymf hy
ezag Rvfjca dkgght+ Ymf hy a` tmf oaufz`h`o jakzd k`d
mky rawfz jvt ymf ockdcx zfch`{vhymfy ht ta Rfdhia`f
jfikvyf ymf hy Rfdhia`fy Rzh`ifyy ketfz kcc
Cvilhcx rfarcf yvim ky Yhcufzha Okzihk wfzf jzkuff`avom ta ytk`d vr ta tmhy icfkz zkihyg k`d cf k` AIZ
iagrckh`t# k`d `aw TVYD gkx jf h` tzavjcf eaz tmhy
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
22/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
:;
aufzt zkihyg
IMKRTFZ EHUF
Dfgaizkty
Da`t cft tmf gxtm ae rzaozfyyhuhyg h` Tviya` eaac xav
Da`t fuf` cft tmf gxtm ae Rzaozfyyhuf mfza Zkvc
Ozhnkcuk eaac xav# yh`if `atmh`o hy evztmfz ezag tmf tzvtmwmf` ht iagfy ta mfcrh`o avt Ckth`ay v`dfz kttkil
Ehzyt xav mkuf ta zfikcc tmkt ht wky tmf Dfgaizkty tmkt
dfytzaxfd tmf Gf}hik` Kgfzhik` iaggv`htx h` Tviya` h`
f}imk`of eaz tmf gxtm ae ga`fx @fufzgh`d tmkt tmf
TII wmhim wky jvhct aufz tmf ykizfd ozav`d wmfzf tmf
azhoh`kc Gf}hik` Kgfzhik` jkzzha wky jvhct k`d`fufzgh`d tmkt ht mky iayt tmf ihtx ae Tviya` aufz $;22
ghccha` h` cayyfy
Kt cfkyt tmf Gf}hik`y kzf avt ae daw`taw`
Ht wky k Dfgaizkt whtm tmf mfcr ae tmf `fwyrkrfz tmkt
mfcrfd tmhy of`tzhiktha` k`d vzjk` zf`fwkc tklf rckif
_f ikcc ht jkzzha dfytzvitha` k`d ht ia`th`vfy ta tmhy dkx
v`dfz tmf `kgf ae Hgkoh`f Ozfktfz Tviya` wmhim hy#`a lhddh`o# zv` avt ae Yh Yimazzy ckw zg< tmf azhoh`kc
kzimhtfit ae jkzzha dfytzvitha`
Dfgaizkt Yh Yimazz wavcd oa a` ta eav`d YKCI# k`d
Nam` Rfdhia`f wavcd oa a` ta jf hty Uhif Rzfyhdf`t# k`d
eaccawh`o Yimazzy rkttfz`# mf wavcd kcya mfcr dfytzax
wmkt tmf Gf}hik` Kgfzhik` iaggv`htx h` Tviya`
izfktfd< tmf yviifyyevc GKY rzaozkg h` TVYD@fufzgh`d tmkt Zkvc Ozhnkcuky tar khdfy whef# Zfoh`k
Zagfza# ky k ihtx iav`ihcgfgjfz# uatfd ta ma`az Yh
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
23/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
::
Yimazz ckyt xfkz Mfx# da xav wk`t yvrrazt eaz fcfitha`y
kzf `at1@fufzgh`d tmkt ymf wky kcya kiifrth`o gk}hgvg
da`ktha`y ezag Gkzl Ytfofgk` k`d Nk`ft Gkziattf k`d
zfevyh`o ta zftvz` tmfg
Ga`fx aufz Gf}hik`y
Tmf rkttfz` hy icfkz k`d tmf `fw ytzktfox hy tmf gaytdk`ofzavy ae kcc Oft eazgfz Ckth`a kithuhyty ta rkx wazdy
ta tmf gaufgf`t jvt ta rkx kitha`y ta wmkt `a`'Ckth`ay
wk`t# fuf` he ht iagfy kt tmf iayt ae tmf Gf}hik`
Kgfzhik` iaggv`htx
Eaz f}kgrcf# Kdfchtk Ozhnkcuk nvyt mky ta ohuf Rfdhia`f
rawfz# k`d tmf` ky tmf gh`azhtx a` tmf jakzd ymf ik` uatf
@A# jvt tmf` wmf` mf `ffdy k ia`tzkit f}tf`yha` uatfXFY# k`d tmf` rzftf`d ta jf tmf uahif ae zfkya`
Fuf` jfttfz hy ta dfickzf# ky xav uatf eaz mhy ia`tzkit
f}tf`yha`# tmkt Rfdhia`f hy cfkdh`o tmf dhytzhit h` tmf zhomt
dhzfitha` tmf ykgf Rfdhia`f tmkt jk``fd GKY k`d tmkt
mkd xavz 58'xfkz acd `h`k kzzfytfd+
Ta ymaw maw rawfzevc tmf Ozhnkcuhytk fytkjchymgf`t hy#ia`yhdfz Ikg Nvkzf~# k`atmfz wh``fz ae tmf TVYD
yimaac jakzd fcfitha` Ikg mky fufzx zfkya` ta arrayf
rfythihdf vyf a` ghozk`t ekzgfzy Mf ymavcd jf tmf cfkdfz
kokh`yt k`x yvim rfzya` wma gklfy tmfhz ga`fx jx
yrzkxh`o ghozk`t wazlh`o whtm ta}hi imfghikcy
Jvt xft# h` :2;2# tmf f`thzf Ozhnkcuhytk ikgr dfihdfd ta
yhdf whtm kozhivctvzkchyt ghccha`khzf Zad`fx Ockyygk`# kEzfy`a ekzgfz wma gkdf ghccha`y aee ae Jzht~ Imfghikc#
ky h` Zad`fx Jzht~ Ockyygk`# tmkt wky wzhttf` kjavt h`
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
24/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
:9
tmf CK Thgfy eaz yrzkxh`o ghozk`ty whtm rfythihdfy
H` ikyf xav eazoat tmkt mhytazx tmkt TVYD hy `awjk``fd ezag tfkimh`o# Ifykz Imkuf~ wf`t a` k ekyt
kokh`yt tmf ekzgfzy eaz aufz 92 dkxy jfikvyf ae tmf
rfythihdf hyyvf
Ikg aeihkccx f`dazyfd Zad`fx Ockyygk`# tmf ovx
wma gkdf ghccha`y aee ae tmf f}rcahtktha` ae ghozk`ty
Jvt h` ia`df`if Ikg tfccy gf mf uatfd eaz Rkzzk~# wma
wazlfd whtm Imkuf~ k`d tmf ytzkwjfzzx wazlfzy wmawfzf rhilfth`o
Mf tfccy gf mf uatfd eaz Zk`dx jvt aeihkccx wky
f`dazyh`o Ockyygk` jfikvyf Ozhnkcuk wky
Tkcl kjavt jkccy ae iavzkof# jx wmhim H gfk` `a jkccy
kt kcc
Tmhy yvggfz wmf` H kylfd Ikg kjavt tmf ickhg tmkt
Kdfchtk ykhd ymf wavcd `at f`dazyf k`xa`f wma arrayfd
Rfdhia`f# Ikg ykhd wmktfufz# mfy mhy aw` rfzya` k`d whcc
ytk`d vr ta rawfz# nvyt chlf Zkvc dafy# jvt wmf` kylfd
kjavt Rfdhia`f mf ikufd h`
Lzhytfc Eaytfz# tmf rfzya` wma tacd gf maw mazzhjcf
Rfdhia`f wky kt Ecawh`o _fccy# maw k`th'Ckth`a k`d k`th'COJT mf wky `aw yvrrazty Rfdhia`f kcya
Ymf tacd gf ymf mkd ta da wmkt ymf mkd ta da ta wh`
tmf wmhtf uatf
K`d tmhy jzh`oy vy ta tadkx
Tmzff Dfgaizkty wa` tmf TVYD yimaac jakzd zkif+
Xav da`t `ffd Tmzff Ya`azk`y ta dfickzf uhitazx
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
25/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
:4
_mfzf hy tmf rkztx kt1
_mfzf hy tmf mvof k``av`ifgf`t1
Hty `awmfzf
K`d tmkt hy jfikvyf tmf ia`ifz`y tmkt H mkuf kzf efct jx
gk`x Xav mkuf rfarcf wma ckil tfythivckz eazthtvdf yvim
ky Ikg# zfkdx ta yvrrazt tmf ufzx rfythihdf ghccha`khzftmkt mky keefitfd mhy aw` chef rfzya`kccx
Xav mkuf Lzhytfc wma wkz`fd gf kjavt k`th'Ckth`a
Rfdhia`f# wma H gft kt GKY fuf`ty# `aw kezkhd ta
jkdgavtm Rfdhia`f k`d wma `aw ykxy ymf mfzyfce wavcd
mkuf uatfd XFY a` tmf Mhily zfyacvtha` ta lhcc GKY+++
Tmfyf kzf twa ae tmf Dfgaizkty tmkt wa`
Gkzl Ytfofgk` hy tmf atmfz
F}ivyf gx ckil ae f}ihtfgf`t
Iagjh`f tmhy whtm Kvoohf Zagfzay aw` wazl kokh`yt
GKY h` f}imk`of eaz `fkzcx yh}'ovzfy# rcvy k $4222yrfklh`o eff wmfzf mf oafy kzav`d tmf iav`tzx oftth`o
yxgrktmx eaz tmf dfktm ae GKY wmhcf `at ymkzh`o tmkt mf
hy rkzt ae tmkt lhcch`o# yfcch`o avt Yfk` Kzif jfeazf Krzhc ya
tmkt Kdfchtk iavcd ykuf mhy naj wmhcf ykizhih`o Kzif h`
Krzhc
Dz Zagfza ofty yxgrktmx eaz tmf dfktm ae GKY k`dxft vyfy tmf yviifyy ae GKY dktk h` tkcly tmkt mf ia`th`vfy
ta ohuf whtm Nfee Dv`ik`'K`dzkdf ta oft yvrrazt eaz mhy
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
26/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
:6
wazl tmkt iagrftfy dhzfitcx whtm GKY
Dhd H gf`tha` mf hy k Ozhnkcuhytk kcya wma mky mkd k
rfzrftvkc izvym a` Kdfchtk1
H mfkzd ezag yagf icayf ta mhg tmkt mf rck``fd a`
zfyho`h`o he Lzhytfc k`d Ikgh dhd `at wh` H ikccfd wmkt mf
wky tzxh`o ta da ta zfrckif GKY tmf LKIK -Lzhytfc'
Kdfchtk'Ikg'Kvoohf( rck` @aw tmkt tmfx mkuf wa`# tmfrzaifyy ta zfrckif GKY ik` jfoh`# k`d tmfx mkuf h`dffd
jfov`
Kvoohfy kcgayt yh} ovzf naj hy kt zhyl ketfz kcc
`fufzgh`d tmkt Yfk` cayt mhy naj eaz ytk`dh`o vr ta
Rfdhia`f k`d mhy kttkil a` Ckth`ay
Ya rfarcf kyl gf wmkt H tmh`l ae tmf fcfitha` k`d H kgdhykrrah`tfd Kt cfkyt he tmf zhomt'wh`o wa`# wf iavcd
omt tmf jakzd evccx @aw wf mkuf ta omt tmf hccvyha` tmkt
tmf jakzd tmkt wa`# yh`if tmf Ozhnkcuhytky mkuf k gknazhtx#
hy a` avz yhdf
K`d ht hy iagrchiktfd ta f}rckh` kcc tmf `aaly k`d
izk``hfy# maw tmfx mkuf yacd avt# imaayh`o k rzhif tko eazGKY zhomty ky Lzhytfc dhd Xfy# h` tmf f`d H rzajkjcx whcc
kozff whtm 88& ae wmkt tmfx da# jvt tmhy kttkil a` GKY
zfkccx hy yagftmh`o tmkt ymavcd`t jf dfjktfd
Uath`o Xfy ta lhcc GKY1 Ymavcd H zfkccx mkuf ta aufzcaal
gx ytk`if a` tmhy fuhc uatf nvyt jfikvyf Lzhytfc wk`ty ta
wh` tmf wmhtf uatf1
Hcc cft xav dfihdf# jvt yveif ht ta ykx tmkt `fkzcx eavz
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
27/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
:5
dfikdfy ketfz Zkvc Ozhnkcuk jfok` mhy ikzffz a` tmf
TVYD yimaac jakzd# mf `aw mky k gknazhtx ae mhygh`ha`y a` tmf jakzd# k`d gx rzfdhitha` hy tmkt GKY whcc
zfgkh`fd v`tavimfd jx tmfhz kitha`y ky tmfx wazl tawkzdy
tmf feeazty ae tmfhz aw`# Dz Zagfzay rck` ta zfrckif
GKY
Tmf Efdfzkc dfyfo azdfz jfok` v`dfz Ozhnkcuk# k`d
xfkzy cktfz ht ythcc zfgkh`y# jvt `aw mhy rfarcf kzf h`
imkzofKy tmf ektmfz ae k 4'xfkz acd h` tmf TVYD yimaac
dhytzhit# H zfkccx da wk`t Lzhytfc k`d Ikg ta da wmkt hy
zhomt# jvt H effc tmkt tmfx jatm mkuf k rzhif# tmkt rah`t
wmfzf tmfx imaayf Ga`fx aufz Gf}hik`y fuf` he tmfx
tmfgyfcufy kzf Gf}hik` He Ytfuf Ga`tf`foza k`d
Ozhnkcuky arra`f`t Okjjx Gfzifz ik` yfcc'avt Gf}hik`y#
tmf` tmfx tmfgyfcufy ik`
Ozhnkcuky cfokix hy kt ytklf mfzf Mf `aw mky k gknazhtx
ae rawfz a` tmf yimaac jakzd# k`d Kdfchtk hy h` imkzof#
jvt whcc ymf ia`th`vf ta jf Rfdhia`fy rvrrft az whcc ymf
ytk`d vr1
_hcc Ikg k`d Lzhytfc mkuf tmf iavzkof ta oa kokh`yt
Kdfchtk a` hgraztk`t uatfy1K` hgraztk`t uatf whcc jf iagh`o vr yaa` ky tmfx mkuf
ta dfihdf a` Kvoohfy Gvcthivctvzkc Ivzzhivcvg uy GKY
Mfzf hy wmkt tmh`oy iagf daw` ta Hty `at tmkt wf `ffd
oaad Dfgaizkty h` aeif _mkt wf `ffd kzf yrfitkivckz
Dfgaizkty wma kzf `at kezkhd ae ia`eza`th`o zkihyg mfkd
a`# zktmfz tmk` tmf a`fy wf mkuf h` Kzh~a`k wma arrayfYJ;2?2 jvt ht zfkccx hy `at tmkt jho k rzhazhtx# k`d h` ekit#
tmfx whcc yiazf yagf }f`armajhi rah`ty tmfgyfcufy jx
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
28/29
Dkuhd Gazkcfy
:?
yfivzh`o tmf jazdfz az tkclh`o kjavt tmf zvcf ae ckw
Ht hy gk`'gkdf ckwy tmkt tvz` Mvgk`y k`d Rck`ty h`ta
Hccfokc tmh`oy# ht hy gk`'gkdf ckwy tmkt tvz`y tzvf mhytazx
k`d chtfzktvzf h`ta hccfokc ickyyfy h` Kzh~a`k# k`d ht hy
TVYD jakzd rachix tmkt jk``fd jaaly h` TVYD
Ht hy Dfgaizkty wma f`kjcfd tmf zkihyg tmkt
Zfrvjchik`y ytkztfd Ht wky Lzhytfc wma dfihdfd ta rckxtmhy okgf ta wh` tmf wmhtf uatf jx ykxh`o TVYD mkd `a
imahif jvt ta ajfx tmf ytktf ckw ga`fx aufz Gf}hik`y
k`d ae iavzyf ymf imayf ga`fx
Nvyt zfif`tcx Ikg wky kylfd kjavt GKY k`d ykhd tmkt
mfy wazzhfd kjavt iagrcxh`o whtm ytktf ckw# k`d tmkt
Kvoohfy GI rzaozkg gkx jf tmf wkx ta oa
@fufz da k`x ae tmfyf oaad Dfgaizkty# wma H whcc
rzajkjcx kozff whtm 88& ae tmf thgf a` atmfz uatfy# tklf
tmkt ckyt iavzkofavy ytk`d h` tmfyf hgraztk`t thgfy# ta ykx
tmkt wf mkuf jff` mfzf jfeazf h` mhytazx# k`d H imaayf tmf
EFDFZKC oaufz`gf`t aufz k zkihyt YTKTF ckw
Tmhy hy `at k thgf eaz oaad rfarcf h` aeif Tmhy hy kthgf eaz rfarcf wma kzf zfkdx ta ytk`d vr eaz kcc mvgk`y
k`d eaz avz Gatmfz Fkztm kcya# jvt tmhy hy k wmacf atmfz
tarhi eaz k`atmfz thgf ky Kzh~a`k ytkzty zv``h`o avt ae
wktfz Kzh~a`k hy kczfkdx oah`o ketfz hccfokc mvgk`y ya
wmx kzf tmf Dfgaizkty h` imkzof ae TVYD `aw oah`o
ketfz hccfokc ickyyfy k`d hccfokc jaaly1
H ovfyy gx `kc gfyykof mfzf hy tmkt zkihyg tmzhufy h`
TVYD# k`d Dfgaizkty kzf h` imkzof# k`d `at nvyt k`x
-
7/30/2019 TUSD 2012: Post Election Analysis
29/29
]hrf Tatfi> Twa'Tmavyk`d Twfcuf Tzk`yeazgktha` Kzzhufy
Dfgaizkty jvt Rzaozfyyhuf Dfgaizkty k`d Ozhnkcuhytky
_mx hy tmf zkihyg ythcc mfzf1