TURKCELL GROUP - Seeking Alpha

30
TURKCELL GROUP Q2 2018 July 25, 2018

Transcript of TURKCELL GROUP - Seeking Alpha

Page 1: TURKCELL GROUP - Seeking Alpha

TURKCELL GROUPQ2 2018

July 25, 2018

Page 2: TURKCELL GROUP - Seeking Alpha

BUSINESS OVERVIEWKaan TerzioğluTurkcell CEO

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3.3583.658

4.044 4.053 4.3164.597 4.666 4.762

5.105

1.029 1.218 1.371 1.400 1.457 1.632 1.7392.022 2.134

30,7%33,3% 33,9% 34,5% 33,8% 35,5% 37,3%

42,5% 41,8%

Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218

Revenue (Mn TL) EBITDA (Mn TL) EBITDA Margin (%)

Over 100Mn core digital services* downloaded

Mobile triple play at 60.5%, up 13.8 pp yoy

4.5G user data usage reached 7GB in June 18

18Mn 4.5G compatible smartphones, ~1Mn QoQ

Record top line at 5.1 bn TL, up 18.3% yoy, 52% 2yr growth

EBITDA Margin at 41.8%

Revenue guidance revised upwards to 16% - 18%

Asset light strategy: infrastructure sharing protocol

First installment of dividend distributed

FINANCIAL OPERATIONAL

Revenue and EBITDA Margin Mobile Triple Play Multiplay with TV

SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

46,7%

58,7%60,5%

Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218

40,5%

45,7% 46,8%

Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218

* Core digital services include BiP, Dergilik, Fizy, My Account, Lifebox, Academy, Sports app, Upcall, TV+ and Yaani

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41 TRY figures are based on IFRS.2 Excluding license fees

• Growth momentum continued; 52% two-year cumulative revenue growth

• Limited net income volatility QoQ despite TL depreciation in Q2

• Operational capex as a percentage of sales in line with expectations in H136% 40% 37% 40% 48% 52%

51% 46% 41%

64%

102% 107%

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218

Revenue EBITDA

TURKCELL GROUP FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

ConsolidatedTRY Million1 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 QoQ % YoY % H1 2018 YoY %

Revenue 4,762 5,105 7.2% 18.3% 9,867 17.9%

EBITDA 2,022 2,134 5.5% 46.5% 4,156 45.5%

EBITDA Margin 42.5% 41.8% (0.7pp) 8.0pp 42.1% 8.0pp

Net Income 501 415 (17.1%) (41.0%) 916 (21.2%)

Op.Capex/Sales2 11.5% 20.2% 8.6pp 3.5pp 16.0% 1.0pp

Two-year Cumulative Growth Rates

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8,0%

4,2%5,5%

Q216 Q217 Q218

~7%competitors’ average in

Q217-Q118**

51,3 52,7 55,4

27,130,8

34,9

Q216 Q217 Q218

Fixed Residential Mobile Blended (excl. M2M)

Note: TV subscribers include 2.1 million of «OTT only» customers and it is excluded from net add & total subs

TURKEY SUBSCRIBERS (million)

5.1%YoY

13.3%YoY

ARPU (TL)

MOBILE CHURN RATE 1,3

0,9

2,6

Fiber ADSL TV

Total Turkey subscribers

37.6 mn18,8

16,0

Postpaid Prepaid

YoY 664K↑ 18K↓ 10K↑171K↑ 124K↑

Net add

54%of total mobile

950K↑ net add YoY

OPERATIONAL HIGLIGHTS

205K↑ 31K↓ -40K↑ 25K↑QoQ

15.0%Mobile ARPU like-for-likeGrowth YoY*

* The ARPU of customers who have stayed with Turkcell for at least 14 months.

Note: In Q117, our churn policy was revised to extend from 9 months to 12 months (the period at the end of which we disconnect prepaid subscribers who have not topped up above TRY10). Additionally, under our revised policy, prepaid customers who last topped up before March will be disconnected at the latest by year-end. Please note that figures for prior periods have not been restated to reflect this change in churn policy. The net mobile subscriber addition figures and mobile churn rate for Q217 disclosed in this document have been positively impacted by this change.

** Company calculation on the basis of monthly churn rates disclosed in ICTA sector reports.

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INCREASING APPRECIATION OF CUSTOMERS

SUPERIOR 4.5G QUALITY & SPEED PIONEER CAMPAIGNS

+9

+12

+20

+23

Q118 Q218

Points over next best Points over third best

• #1 in NPS reflecting superior overall customer satisfaction

• Continued to widen the gap in the second quarter

*NPS score comparison is for consumer segment in mobile. (Source: Future Bright)

NET PROMOTER SCORE* OVER COMPETITION

DIGITAL SERVICESPORTFOLIO

ENHANCED SHOPPING EXPERIENCE

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1519

2326 28 29 30 31 31

8 10 11 13 14 15 16 17 18

Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218

4.5G subscribers 4.5G compatible smartphone*

1,82,7

3,2

4,3

5,86,6

2,3

3,9

5,0

Q216 Q217 Q218

Non 4.5G Users 4.5G Users Total Users

MOBILE DATA USAGE (Av. GB/User) 4.5G SUBSCRIPTION (million)

• 4.5G users are driving data usage

o 2x consumption vs. 2G&3G users

• Significant room for further 4.5G adoption

• 77% of smartphones on our network are 4.5G compatible

• Up by 12pp yoy

CONTINUED RISE IN DATA USAGE

* adjusted to reflect the updated 4.5G smartphone figures on our network

7GB4.5G data usage

in June 18

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46.7%

58,7% 60,5%

MOBILE* (TRIPLE PLAY«3P»)

40.5%

45,7% 46,8%

Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218

FIBER RESIDENTIAL (MULTIPLAY WITH TV)

*Share of mobile voice line users which excludes subscribers who do not use their line in the last 3 months. Triple Play refers to mobile customers who use voice, data and one of core digital services.

INCREASING MULTIPLAY

65% 75% 77%

Q217 Q118 Q218

MOBILE MULTIPLAY

TRIPLE PLAY SHARE IN MOBILE REVENUE

12ppYoY

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55 minwatching

23 minreading

23 minlistening

32 mincalling

16 mininteracting

39 minfor VOIP users

We aim to increase customer engagement……from basic communication to potentially all digital activities

DIGITAL COMPANION THROUGHOUT THE DAY

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10*Refers to downloads as of July 16, 2018** Includes users who utilised the zero rating benefit of Dergilik magazines and newspapers via browser.

Download*

MonthlyActive User

Service KPI’s

INSTANT MESSAGING

21.3Mn

6.5Mn

70Mnmessages per day

UPCALL

3.2Mn

1.0Mn

1Mncalls

per day

DIGITALPUBLISHING

6.5Mn

7.9Mn**

176Kcopies read

per day

MUSIC

17.6Mn

1.8Mn

6.8Mnsongs streamed

per day

TV

8.7Mn

1.9Mn

2.8MnTV sessions

per day

PERSONAL CLOUD(lifebox)

7.7Mn

1.3Mn

46docs uploaded

per personper day

MY ACCOUNT(Hesabım)

32.1Mn

11.8Mn

33%More ARPU

INTERACT, READ, LISTEN, WATCH, STORE & SEARCH

5.4Mn

0.9Mn

2.0Mn Searchper day

Web version launched

Paycellintegration

Q2Updates

Infrastructure renewed

International magazines introduced

Peak trafficduring elections and World Cup

2nd number on one phone

New interface

85MnShake&Win

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PAYCELL CARD

PAYCELL APP

1.6MnRegisteredcredit cards

1.5Mndownloads

PAYCELL 5MnMobile Payment

users

277Kusers

PAYCELL: DIGITAL PAYMENT COMPANION

Available at:and

counting

Direct Carrier Billing

Mobile wallet Paycell top-ups Utility payments Money transfer QR code payment

Paycell launch campaign

169 Mn TLtransaction

in Q218*

*Excludes TCF transactions

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• 300Mn TL of Asset Backed Securities were issued to date

TCF KEY FINANCIALS*

CONSUMER FINANCE BUSINESS

0,8 0,4 0,4

3,5 4,4 4,7

Q217 Q118 Q218Turkcell Contracted Receivables TCF Consumer Loans

Handset Financing

4.2

(TRY billion)

* Turkcell Consumer Finance Company (TCF) net income includes 30 mn TL and 57 mn TL dividend from Paycell retained earnings in Q217 and Q218 , respectively

Smartphone95%

Other**

5%

Loan Breakdown

**Other includes tablet, accessories, smart watch and VINN sales.

• 4.7Mn loans outstanding

• 1,526 TL average ticket size

• 85 TL average monthly installment

• Loan protection insurance on over 90% recently

TCF Loan Portfolio detailsTRY MILLION

Q2 2018 YoY % H1 2018 YoY %

Revenues 231 63.4% 443 72.2%

Net Income 123 235.2% 162 122.5%

4.8 5.1

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GAMING BUSINESS

• Safe zone for kids up to age 12

• Available in web & mobile

• 1.4Mn users in June 18

• Umbrella platform

• New interface

• 5Mn games played in June 18

• Launched TavlaGO (Backgammon)

• Multi player online game

• Attractive gaming market* in Turkey

• 31Mn gamers

• USD774 Mn market

• Aim to create the largest gaming brand in Turkey

• Segmented approach

• Subscription based business model

• Coming soon for age 12+

* Source: Market Report, Newzoo, 2017

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LIFECELL: TREND IN DIGITAL BRAND CONTINUES

195

401

879

Q417 Q118 Q218

SUBSCRIBERS (thousand)

1.4xARPU

(vs. Turkcell consumersubscriber)

70%of postpaid Lifecell

acquisitions are new customers

21%Lower churn rate

(vs. Turkcell subscriber)

8 GBav. data usage of a

Lifecell user(in June 2018)

2x

>1Mnas of

July 18

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lifecell

BeST

Kuzey Kıbrıs Turkcell

EBITDA Margin(Q218)

47.6%31.6%

16.0%25.0%

38.0%13.0%

YoY Revenue Growth(Q218, in TRY)

1 TRY figures are based on IFRS

HIGHLIGHTS

TURKCELL INTERNATIONAL

4Ggrowth

on track

Nowoffering

fixedbroadband

4.5G launched on

1800MHzTRY MILLION1 Q2 2018 YoY% H1 2018 YoY %

Revenue 332 28.6% 611 20.8%

EBITDA 122 85.4% 215 70.3%

EBITDA

Margin36.9% 11.3pp 35.2% 10.2pp

lifecell Europe

260K subscribers

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GLOBAL DIGITAL SERVICES

*Refers to downloads as of June 30, 2018

LIFECELLEUROPE

32K

7K

157K

10K

Downloads*

UKRAINE

83K

177K

582K

14K

BELARUS

0.9K

153K

-

1.2K

MOLDOVA(by LIFECELL VENTURES)

-

-

OTHER COUNTRIES

108K

1.4Mn

9K

18K

TRNC

42K

118K

15K

5K

Available at

Available at

• Digital services are available at our international subsidiaries and other operators through lifecell Ventures

• International downloads of our services reached almost 3 million

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ASSET LIGHT STRATEGY ON TRACK

Turkcell Fiber Backbone

• Infrastructure sharing protocol signed by Turkcell, Türk Telekom, Vodafone TR, Türksat and Telkoder in May

• Bilateral agreements to follow: 3.6Mn additional homepass through Türksat and potential for more

• A new capex model on fixed business

• 41.8 thousand km rollout

• 19 cities

• Data speed up to 10Gbps

• 41% take up rate

NEW BUSINESS MODEL ON FIXED INFRASTRUCTURE

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GUIDANCE REVISED UPWARDS

OLD

OP. CAPEX / SALES*

TURKCELL GROUP

2018 GUIDANCE

REVENUE GROWTH

EBITDA MARGIN

NEW

14% - 16% 16% - 18%

37% - 40% 37% - 40%

19% - 18%19% - 18%

*Excluding licence fees

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FINANCIAL OVERVIEWOsman YılmazTurkcell CFO

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REVENUE & EBITDA

4.316

5.105

601

74 89 25

RevenueQ217

Δ TurkcellTurkey

Δ TurkcellInternational

ΔTCF* Δ OtherSubsidiaries

RevenueQ218

18.3%

* Turkcell Consumer Finance Company, Financell

REVENUETRY MILLION

• 0.8 bn TL revenue add in Q218 yoy, Turkcell Turkey and TCF are main growth contributors

• EBITDA margin improvement of 8.0pp yoy in Q2 including new IFRS impacts

EBITDA & EBITDA MARGIN

1.457

2.134789

(170)(10) 68

EBITDAQ217

Δ in Revenues

Δ in Direct cost of

revenues**

Δ in G&Aexp.

Δ in S&Mexp.

EBITDAQ218

Margin33.8%

Margin41.8%46.5%

TRY MILLION

** Excluding depreciation and amortization

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NET INCOME DEVELOPMENT

704

415

677

(429)

(269)

(313)

3 42

Net income Q217 Δ in EBITDA Δ in D&A Δ in InterestInc./Exp.

Δ in FX Gain/Loss*

Δ in Other Inc/Exp.

Δ in Taxation Net income Q218

Q217 vs. Q218TRY MILLION

* FX Gain/Loss includes impact of fair market value change of swap contract

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SOLID BALANCE SHEET

TRY Mn Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018

Total Cash 4,712 4,590 7,081

Total Assets 33,982 37,073 41,026

Total Debt* 12,536 14,002 17,313

Lease

Obligations- 1,128 1,136

Total Equity 15,045 14,248 14,952

Net Debt* 7,824 9,413 10,231

Net Debt** 3,576 5,014 5,541

NET DEBT/ EBITDASUMMARY

* Impact of IFRS 16 (capitalised lease obligations) are excluded**Turkcell Consumer Finance Company’s (TCF) loan portfolio and capitalized lease obligations related to IFRS 16 are excluded

TCF loan porfolio

Net Debt**

3.5765.014

5.541

4.248

4.3994.691

1,26x

1,44x1,49x

0,59x

0,80x0,84x

Q417 Q118 Q218

Net Debt/EBITDA* Net Debt/EBITDA**

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CASH DEVELOPMENT

4.590

6.983 7.081

2.134(1.230)

474

1.646(631)

98

Cash Q118 EBITDA Capex* Net intincome/(expense)

Net chg inborrowing

Dividend Payment Other Cash Q218

* Including operational and non-operational Capex and excluding the impact of new IFRS changes

TRY MILLION

Q118 vs. Q218

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78%

22%

FX EXPOSURE

7.1Bn TLNominal

42%58%

82%

18%

FX Local Currency

CASH DEBT

Before Hedging

* Including advance payments, hedging and assuming the 4.5G license payables in TRY for the periods before April 2017 and excluding FX swap transactions for TL borrowing. Q218 figures include USD 86 Mn stemming from lease obligations.

After Hedging

NET FX POSITION*

18.5Bn TL

USD MILLION

Share

(1.239)

(688)

(125) (91) (203)

(330)

(144) (109)(215)(95)

(86)

Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218

Comfort Zone(USD 500Mn)

IMPACT OF HEDGING TOOLS ON Q218 FX LOSS

TRY MILLION

961

279

682

Total FX Loss Hedge Portfolio Gain Net FX Loss

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NOTICE

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21Eof the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Thisincludes, in particular, our targets for revenue, EBITDA and capex in 2018 or for the medium term 2018 to 2020. More generally, allstatements other than statements of historical facts included in this presentation, including, without limitation, certain statementsregarding the launch of new businesses, our operations, financial position and business strategy may constitute forward-lookingstatements. In addition, forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the written or oral use of forward-lookingterminology such as, among others, "will," "expect," "intend," "estimate," "believe", "continue" and “guidance”.

Although Turkcell believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable at this time, it can give noassurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to usare expressly qualified in their entirety by reference to these cautionary statements. For a discussion of certain factors that may affectthe outcome of such forward looking statements, see our Annual Report on Form 20-F for 2017 filed with the U.S. Securities andExchange Commission, and in particular the risk factor section therein. We undertake no duty to update or revise any forward lookingstatements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

The Company makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, whichremains subject to verification, completion and change. No responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by the Company or any of itssubsidiaries, board members, officers, employees or agents as to or in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the informationcontained in this presentation or any other written or oral information made available to any interested party or its advisers.

Please note that all financial data are consolidated whereas non-financial data are unconsolidated unless otherwise specified. In thecharts or tables used in this presentation totals may not foot due to rounding differences. The figures used in this presentation arerounded while percentage changes are calculated based on the figures disclosed in the press release.

Page 26: TURKCELL GROUP - Seeking Alpha

For further information please e-mail

[email protected] call Turkcell Investor Relations at

(+90 212 313 1888)

Have you updated Turkcell IR app?

For Android For iOS

THANK YOU

Page 27: TURKCELL GROUP - Seeking Alpha

APPENDIX

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SUMMARY INCOME STATEMENT AS PER CMB1 FINANCIALS

(TRY MILLION)

Summary income statement Q2 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Revenue 4,316 4,762 5,105 18% 7%

Direct Cost of Revenues2 (2,784) (3,115) (3,392) 22% 9%

S&M (508) (390) (432) (15%) 11%

G&A (184) (215) (194) 5% (10%)

EBITDA 1,457 2,022 2,134 46% 6%

EBITDA Margin 33.8% 42.5% 41.8% 8.0pp (0.7pp)

Net Income 704 501 415 (41%) (17%)

1 Capital Markets Board of Turkey2 Depreciation and amortization is included

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CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET (IFRS)(Million TL)

Consolidated Balance Sheet (TRY mn) Q2 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Cash & Bank 4,995 4,590 7,081 42% 54%

CURRENT ASSETS 13,402 14,532 17,691 32% 22%

TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS 18,512 22,541 23,335 26% 4%

TOTAL ASSETS 31,914 37,073 41,026 29% 11%

S/T Debt 4,042 5,716 6,688 65% 17%

TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 9,193 11,704 12,451 35% 6%

L/T Debt 7,156 9,414 11,760 64% 25%

TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES 8,520 11,121 13,623 60% 22%

MINORITY INTEREST 39 43 49 26% 14%

SHARE CAPITAL 2,200 2,200 2,200 - -

TOTAL EQUITY 14,201 14,248 14,952 5% 5%

TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 31,914 37,073 41,026 29% 11%

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CURRENCY TRENDS

3,02 3,32

4,115,06

3,183,71

4,525,31

2015 2016 2017 2Q18

Average Period-End

2,73 3,013,63

4,262,913,52 3,77

4,56

2015 2016 2017 2Q18

1,591,98 1,93 2,00

1,86 1,96 1,97 1,99

2015 2016 2017 2Q18

21,7925,56 26,64

26,2424,0027,19 28,07

26,19

2015 2016 2017 2Q18

USD / TRY EUR / TRY

USD / BYN USD / UAH