Tuesday, August 8th 2017 D A I LY R E P O R T RESEARCH … · Tuesday, August 8th 2017 D A I LY R E...

Tuesday, August 8th 2017

D A I LY R E P O R T

Daily Report is also available in BNI Sekuritas website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id

RESEARCH Equity

MARKET PREDICTION TODAY

JCI is Predicted to Continue its Uptrend

The focus of the market is on North Korea's geopolitical issues with US that potentially will affects global stock markets. Previously, Dow Jones index was closed up by 0.12% to level 22118 then followed by S&P which increased by 0.16% and Nasdaq was up 0.51%. In European bourses, CAC Paris closed positively by 0.9% then followed by DAX Frankfurt which was closed down 0.33% and FTSE London rose by 0.27%. Meanwhile, regional bourses were still moving in varied due to earnings season. In domestic bourse, JCI in Monday yesterday had ever moved in positive zone but then closed down by -28 points or decreased by -0.5% to level 5,749 with “foreign net sell” reaching Rp347 billion. The biggest increase was in miscellaneous industry sector which rose by +1.2%. Meanwhile, the biggest loss was in consumer sector which fell by -1.5%. At the closing time of JCI, the Rupiah (IDR) currency strengthened against US dollar (USD) to the level of IDR 13,315 per USD. The stagnant growth of GDP at the 5.01% level sent a negative sentiment for market participants who see a slowing economic growth in the first half of 2017. Earnings season will still influent the market movement this week. JCI today is predicted to move with uptrend in the range of 5,728-5,791. Our top stocks picks for today trading sessions are LPPF, ACES, RALS, DPUM.

Analyst: Dessy Lapagu ([email protected])

COMPANY/INDUSTRY UPDATE

Oversupply in Office Building. NEUTRAL. Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra.

PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP)’s Performance in 1H17. BUY. Analyst: Ankga Adiwirasta.

PT Link Net Tbk (LINK)’s Performance in 1H17. NOT RATED. Analyst: Richard Jerry.

PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) continues expanding in 2H 2017. NOT RATED. Analyst: Thennesia Debora.

Global Indices Closing Change %Chg %Ytd P/EAmericasINDU Index 22,118.42 25.61 0.12 11.92 18.96SPX Index 2,480.91 4.08 0.16 10.81 21.30CCMP Index 6,383.77 32.208 0.51 18.59 33.75IBOV Index 67,939.66 1041.68 1.56 12.81 18.65EMEAUKX Index 7,531.94 20.23 0.27 5.45 27.41CAC Index 5,207.89 4.45 0.09 7.11 18.59RTSSTD Index 12,686.95 102.9 0.82 (13.91) 6.50IBEX Index 10,676.50 18.1 0.17 14.16 16.34FTSEMIB Index 22,031.17 95.38 0.43 14.54 3.88AEX Index 531.41 2.32 0.44 9.98 19.92SMI Index 9,155.13 -21.86 -0.24 11.38 24.59Asia / PacificNKY Index 20,044.33 -11.56 -0.06 4.87 18.39HSI Index 27,690.36 127.68 0.46 25.86 14.44SHCOMP Index 3,279.46 17.376 0.53 5.66 17.63TWSE Index 10,579.38 72.82 0.69 14.33 16.24KOSPI Index 2,387.76 -10.99 -0.46 17.83 17.30JCI Index 5,749.29 -28.19 -0.49 8.54 23.55SET Index 1,573.67 -4.59 -0.29 1.99 16.14PCOMP Index 7,992.27 59.45 0.75 16.84 22.18SENSEX Index 32,273.67 -51.74 -0.16 21.21 23.80FSSTI Index 3,320.67 -5.85 -0.18 15.27 11.95

Description Last Previous %ChgMarket Capitalization (IDR Trillion) 6,300.86 6,330.61 -0.47Transaction Volume (Million Shares) 4,466.00 4,134.75 8.01Transaction Value (IDR Million) 4,522.00 4,121.21 9.73Stocks Value (IDR) 1,012.54 996.73 1.59Net Foreign (IDR Million) (348,672.75) (180,401.63) 93.28

Commodities Last Previous %ChgNickel (US$/Ton) 10,400.00 10,250.00 1.46Copper (US$/Ton) 6,414.00 6,372.00 0.66Tins (US$/Ton) 20,600.00 20,510.00 0.44Oil (US$/BBL) (*) 49.39 49.58 -0.38Gas (US$/MMBTU) 2.36 2.36 -0.11Coal (US$/Ton) (**) 95.00 95.35 -0.37Gold (USD/OZ) 1,258.49 1,257.90 0.05CPO PALMROTT(USD/ton) 705.00 750.00 -6.00CPO MALAYSIA(RM/ton) 2,601.50 2,599.00 0.10(*) WTI Cushing(**) McCloskey Newscatle

ADR Stocks Last (US$) % Conversition Last (IDR)(US$) Chg (IDR)

Stocks Code Last (US$) %Change Conv (Rp) Last (IDR)Telkom TLK US 35.05 -0.03 11,712.49 4670.00

Recommendation TP (IDR)Property Sector NEUTRAL -PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP) BUY 4,270PT Link Net Tbk (LINK) NOT RATED -PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) NOT RATED -

Company/Industry Updates

Bloomberg Code



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RESEARCH Equity

HIGHLIGHT NEWS PT Tira Austenite Tbk (TIRA) through its subsidiary, PT Alpha Austenite, set

up a joint venture (JV) with PT Stahlindo Engineering on 2 August 2017.

PT BRI Agro Tbk (AGRO) recorded a net profit which was attributed to the shareholders of the parent entity in amount of Rp50.19 billion as of 30 June 2017 (1H17) or increased from a net profit of Rp47 billion in the same period last year.

PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) announced that the company's main subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), has signed a contract of mining services with the subsidiary of Petro Energy, a company engaged in mining and energy business.

PT Trias Sentosa Tbk (TRST) cooperates with a Japanese company, Toyobo Co. Ltd., to develop polyester film manufacturer and product derivatives in Sidoarjo, East Java.

A private contractor, PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk (TOTL) reached a new contract of Rp2.67 trillion until the end of July 2017 or about 67% of the company’s full year new contract target of Rp4 trillion.

PT Bukaka Teknik Utama Tbk (BUKK) booked a contract of Rp2.95 trillion for supplying materials, fabrication and erection, galvanizing as well as materials transportation for the construction project of Jakarta-Cikampek toll road.

(Source: www.iqplus.info)

Net Foreign BUY Accumulation

USD/IDR Currency and JCI

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

3/01

/…10

/01…

17/0

1…24

/01…

31/0

1…7/

02/…

14/0

2…22

/02…

1/03

/…8/

03/…

15/0

3…22

/03…

30/0

3…6/

04/…

13/0

4…25

/04…

3/05

/…10

/05…

18/0

5…26

/05…

5/06

/…12

/06…

19/0

6…4/

07/…

11/0

7…18

/07…

25/0

7…1/

08/…

Accumulation JCI Index

13,100

13,150

13,200

13,250

13,300

13,350

13,400

13,450

13,500

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

JCI Index USDIDR

8i Stock Top Value (IDR)1 ASII IJ 459,983,323,136 2 BMRI IJ 236,311,347,200 3 TLKM IJ 235,731,042,304 4 BBCA IJ 214,670,147,584 5 BBRI IJ 209,491,181,568

No Stock Top Volume (Shares)1 RIMO IJ 449,848,900.00 2 BKSL IJ 344,691,700.00 3 ENRG IJ 254,625,600.00 4 IIKP IJ 232,473,100.00 5 BUMI IJ 223,815,700.00

No Top Gainers % Change1 MKNT IJ 15.482 LPGI IJ 10.193 INCF IJ 104 SDRA IJ 9.945 BJBR IJ 9.76

No Top Losers % Change1 HDFA IJ -19.572 SMMA IJ -15.343 SKBM IJ -14.534 INDR IJ -13.685 CNTX IJ -12.32

No Leading Movers % Change1 ASII IJ 1.612 BMRI IJ 0.763 BJBR IJ 9.764 SMGR IJ 2.425 TPIA IJ 1.65

No Lagging Movers % Change1 SMMA IJ -15.342 HMSP IJ -2.023 GGRM IJ -3.004 UNVR IJ -1.055 KLBF IJ -4.51



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RESEARCH Equity

COMPANY/INDUSTRY UPDATE

News: Oversupply in Office Building

Ciputra Group management stated that office spaces market is still weak as an impact of oversupply condition related to property booming in 2012. Many developers built office spaces on that time when there was still relatively higher economic growth compared to this year. Based on data from property consultant Savills Indonesia, the vacancy rate of office space reached 18.4% in 1H17, up from 15.7% in 1H16 on the back of high supply.

Analyst Opinion:

In our view, office spaces market condition will take a long time to recover. The improving demand is still lower than supply side increase. From property business side, office space business contributes positively revenues portfolio, both in strata title and rent. Business diversification is required to compensate a slowing growth in property business. Recommendation: NEUTRAL.

Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra ([email protected])

News: PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP)’s Performance in 1H17

The performance of HMSP in the first 6 months of this year (1H17) is unsatisfactory. HMSP booked net sales of Rp 46.59 trillion. The result was down by 1.5% from net sales of Rp47.33 trillion in 1H16. HMSP's export sales increased from Rp 246.01 billion to Rp 255.86 billion. While for domestic sales, during 1H17 HMSP had sold machine kretek cigarettes Rp 30.69 trillion, hand kretek cigarettes Rp 9.15 trillion and white machine cigarettes Rp 6.3 trillion. Just like its sales, HMSP's net profit also fell by 1.59%. In 1H17, the company's net profit of Rp 6.05 trillion, was down from a net profit of Rp 6.15 trillion in 1H16.

Analyst Opinion:

HMSP's performance showed a less attractive result where the company posted a decreasing net profit of 1.65% YoY to Rp 6.05 trillion in 1H17 from Rp 6.15 trillion in 1H16. The falling performance was caused by the decrease in cigarette sales volume due to price hikes over the past year. Moreover, the weakening people purchasing power also quite impacted to the company’s performance. However, the company still recorded increasing export sales of 4.00% to Rp 255.86 billion in 1H17 from Rp 246.01 billion in 1H16. The declining company's profitability is expected to discontinue until the end of this year as we predict HMSP's net profit will grow by 18.49% YoY to Rp 15.12 trillion in FY17. Meanwhile, people purchasing power will be recovery along with higher government's budget expenditures which will accelerate in 3Q17 and 4Q17. Currently HMSP stock is traded with forward PE 2017E of 28.70x and 2017E PBV of 11.80x which are relatively lower than the average consumer sector with PE of 34.24x and PBV of 15.38x. Thus, we recommend BUY for HMSP with price target (TP) Rp 4,270 per share for next 12 months.

Income Statement (Rp billion)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ERevenue 75,025.2 80,690.1 89,069.3 95,466.7 104,058.7

Cost of Revenue 54,953.9 60,190.1 67,304.9 71,612.0 76,194.7 Gross Profit 20,071.3 20,500.1 21,764.4 23,854.7 27,864.0

Operating Expenses 5,471.1 6,957.7 7,926.7 7,716.3 8,151.2 Operating Income 14,600.3 13,694.1 13,888.1 16,138.4 19,712.8

Interest Expense 69.1 47.4 138.4 22.3 3.1 Other Income (Charges) Net (21.5) (150.1) (21.5) 267.7 267.7

Pretax Income 14,509.7 13,718.3 13,932.6 17,011.4 19,442.0 Income Tax Expense 3,691.2 3,537.2 3,569.3 4,249.2 4,315.6

Income Before XO Items 10,818.5 10,181.1 10,363.3 12,762.2 15,126.4 Other Comprehensive Income - - - - - Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 (0.0) - -

Net Income 10,818.5 10,181.1 10,363.3 12,762.2 15,126.4

EPS (Rp) 98.0 92.2 93.9 115.6 137.0 EBITDA 15,095.0 14,489.0 14,647.0 17,452.7 19,715.1



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RESEARCH Equity

Analyst: Ankga Adiwirasta ([email protected])

News: PT Link Net Tbk (LINK)’s Performance in 1H17

In 1H17, LINK posted a revenue of IDR 1.65 tn (+18.48% YoY), which was derived from internet broadband services and network (IDR 941.58 bn), and TV cable subscription (IDR 606.98 bn). Meanwhile, LINK recorded a net profit of IDR 490.23 bn in 1H17 (+23.35% YoY).

For additional homepasses, Joel Peter Ellis (LINK’s Head of Investor Relation) commented: “Our guideline for FY17 is to add 120,000-150,000 homepasses. In 1H17, we already had additional 83,000 homepasses.

Analyst Opinion:

In midst of tight competition, we see LINK market share is somewhat different, as it focuses on big cities market. In terms of package price, LINK could offer competitive price that reach middle-lower segment to upper segment. Additionally, LINK’s ARPU was considered quite high compared to competitors, which reached IDR 419,000 in 1H17 (+2.9% vs FY16 level). We believe as homepass number keeps increasing, stable ARPU, and increasing subscribers number (+2.3% ytd), LINK could achieve its management target, which is 13%-15% revenue growth and higher than 50% EBITDA margin. Currently, LINK stock is traded at PBV 3.54x and PER 16.23x. Recommendation: NOT RATED.

Analyst: Richard Jerry ([email protected])



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RESEARCH Equity COMPANY/INDUSTRY UPDATE

News: PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) continues expanding in 2H 2017

In 1H 2017, SGRO has expanded land approximately by 3,700 hectares (ha) in which the 2,200 ha is for rubber plantation. SGRO will continue expanding oil palm and rubber plantations in 2H2017. The company will expand approximately by 2,000 - 4,000 ha for rubber plantation and by 2,000 - 5,000 ha for palm plantation with an average investment value of roughly Rp70 - 90 million per ha. The company is also currently constructing a new palm oil mill in Kalimantan with completion stage of 30%. This mill has a production capacity of 30 tons per hour. Furthermore, the company will increase the capacity to about 45 tons per hour. The investment for this mill is Rp100 - 120 billion.

Analyst Opinion:

We assess positively the Company's expansion in line with the positive expectation of CPO industry growth this year. In addition, the new mill is expected to operate in 2H2018 which we expect will support the company’s CPO production increase. We assess the Company's production will increase in 2H2017 along with the easing of El Nino and La Nina effects. This increase in production is expected to be offset by increasing demand for CPO, both in domestic consumption and export demand. In addition, the expectation of successful biodiesel mandates is expected to be a positive sentiment which underpins CPO demand. Therefore, we still have a positive outlook for the CPO industry this year in line with the recovery of CPO prices and expectations of increasing CPO demand. Recommendation: NOT RATED.

Analyst: Thennesia Debora ([email protected])



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RESEARCH Equity TARGET PRICE



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RESEARCH Equity TARGET PRICE



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RESEARCH Equity

RESEARCH TEAM Phone : +62 21 25543946 (Hunting) Fax : +62 21 57935831 Email : [email protected] Website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id

Norico Gaman (Head of Research Division) [email protected] Ext: 3934 Investment Strategy

Maxi Liesyaputra (Head of Equity Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 3968 Construction, Property, Infrastructure, Cement

Ariawan (Head of Fixed Income Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 2098 Fixed Income Market, Corporate & Government Bond

Andri Zakarias Siregar (Head of Technical Analysis Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 2054 Market Strategy, Currency, Commodities, Bond & Stocks

Thennesia Debora (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 2123 Transportation, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Plantation

Richard Jerry (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 2032 Telecommunication, Banking, Tower Infrastructure, Insurance

Ankga Adiwirasta (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 3986 Consumer Goods, Pharmaceutical, Health Care, Manufacture, Metal Mining

Dessy Lapagu (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 2051 Poultry, Crops, Fishery, Retail, Coal Mining

Ahmad Hapiz (Fixed Income Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 3968 Fixed Income Market, Corporate & Government Bond

R. Venia Allani Meissalina (Research Analyst/Assistant) [email protected] Ext: 2050 Data Administrator

Indah Lestari Permata H. (Research Analyst/Assistant) [email protected] Ext: 2073 Data Administrator



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RESEARCH Equity

EQUITY TEAM CM : +62 21 25543946 (Hunting) Fax No : +62 21 57935831 Sukanto ext. 3997 [email protected] Head of Equity Division

Entis Sutisman ext. 3945 [email protected] Head of Equity Department

Fian Pusparini ext. 3958 [email protected] Head of Institutional Relation

Yulinda ext. 3950 [email protected] Institutional Sales

Teguh Hendro ext. 3948 [email protected] Institutional Sales

Danovan Yazir ext. 3929 [email protected] Institutional Sales

Dharmawan P. ext. 3916 [email protected] Institutional Sales

Fachrial Bayu ext. 3966 [email protected] Institutional Sales

Dini Desita ext. 3981 [email protected] Client Relation

Putri Erinasari ext. 3920 [email protected] Client Relation

Iffa Rizqi Izzata ext. 3931 [email protected] Client Relation

Jufrani Amsal ext. 3957 [email protected] Head of Channel Distribution Division

Fahma Riniarti ext. 3917 [email protected] Head of Channel Development

P. Sariningsih ext. 3984 [email protected] Head of Branch Supervision

Teuku Hafez ext. 2084 [email protected] Branch Manager Mangga Dua, Jakarta

Hapsari ext. 2078 [email protected] Branch Manager Puri Indah, Jakarta

Fadjar H S ext. 2111 [email protected] Branch Manager Central Park, Jakarta

M. Yasrul ext. 2081 [email protected] Branch Manager Wisma Bumiputera

Fahmi Lubis ext. 2079 [email protected] Branch Manager Bandung

Rifaat Annur ext. 2091 [email protected] Branch Manager Yogyakarta

Agus Purwanto ext. 2090 [email protected] Branch Manager Solo

Achmad Ridwan ext. 2088 [email protected] Branch Manager Surabaya

Edith Febriana ext. 2082 [email protected] Branch Manager Malang

Ni Nyoman Citasti ext.2080 [email protected] Branch Manager Denpasar

Nirmasari N. ext. 2083 [email protected] Branch Manager Medan

Ari Magdalena ext. 2086 [email protected] Branch Manager Palembang

Rini Wati ext. 2085 [email protected] Branch Manager Pekanbaru

Allen Makalew ext. 2102 [email protected] Branch Manager Manado

Melisa ext. 2136 [email protected] Branch Manager Aceh

Yuniar Fariza D ext. 2064 [email protected] Branch Manager Banjarmasin

RESEARCH Equity

MAIN OFFICE - JAKARTA PT BNI SEKURITAS

Sudirman Plaza, Indofood Tower 16th Floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 76-78 Jakarta 12910, Indonesia

Phone: (62-21) 25543946 (Hunting) Fax: (62-21) 57935831

e-mail: [email protected] (General) Website: http://www.bnisekuritas.co.id

JAKARTA - Mangga Dua

Pertokoan Mangga Dua Blok E4 No. 7 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya, Jakarta Utara

Phone: (62-21) 6123804-5,62203890 Fax: (62-21) 6123806

e-mail: [email protected]

JAKARTA - Puri Indah Gedung Bank BNI Ruko Grand Puri Niaga

Puri Kencana Blok K 6 no.2J 2K Puri Kembangan, Jakarta Barat

Phone: (62-21) 58357464 Fax: (62-21) 58357465


JAKARTA - Central Park Central Park, APL Tower Podomoro City

Jl. Letjen S. Parman Kav 28, Tanjung Duren Selatan, Petamburan Phone: (62-21) 29034215

Fax: (62-21) 29034216 email: [email protected]

JAKARTA – Wisma Bumiputera

Wisma Bumiputera Lt. 6 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 75 Jakarta 12910

Phone: (62-21) 2523349 Fax: (62-21) 2523350


BANDUNG Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan 3

Bandung - 40117 Phone: (62-22) 4213375

Fax: (62-22) 4220604 e-mail: [email protected]

YOGYAKARTA

Jl. Laksda Adisucipto 137, Yogyakarta - 55282 Phone: (62-274) 581001-584032


SOLO

Jl. Honggo Wongso No. 24, Surakarta Phone: (62-271) 729667, 730525


SURABAYA

Jl. Gubernur Suryo No. 36, Surabaya Phone: (62-31) 5320912


MALANG Jl. Buring No. 58, Malang

Phone: (62-341) 321214,321213,321430 Fax: (62-341) 356876


DENPASAR Komplek Pertokoan Diponegoro Megah Blok A5-6 Lantai 2

Jl. Diponegoro No. 100, Denpasar - Bali Phone: (62-361) 264376, 2753389


MEDAN

Jl. Pemuda No. 12, Medan - 20151 Phone: (62-61) 4579616


PALEMBANG

Jl. Jend. Sudirman 132, Palembang - 30126 Phone: (62-711) 361969


PEKANBARU

Jl. Riau, No. 124, Lt. 2, Pekanbaru Phone: (62-761) 46757, 839698


MANADO

BNI KLN Megamas, Lt. 3, Kawasan Mega Mas Blok I C1 Jl. Piere Tendean, No. 20, Manado

Phone: (62-431) 847256 Fax: (62-24) 847256


ACEH Kantor Cabang BNI Banda Aceh Lt.2

Jl. KH. Ahmad Dahlan No. 111, Banda Aceh Phone: (62-651) 31109

Fax: (62-651) 31107

BANJARMASIN Gd. Bank BNI Antasari Lt. 2

Jl. Pangeran Antasari No. 44 RT 008, Banjarmasin Phone: (62-511) 3253735


This document is not intended to be an offer, or a satisfaction of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by BNI SEKURITAS or any other member of the BNI Group, including any other member of the BNI Group from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Dokumen ini tidak diperuntukan sebagai suatu penawaran, atau permohonan dari suatu penawaran, permintaan untuk membeli atau menjual efek dan segala hal yang berhubungan dengan efek (seperti efek yang disebutkan disini, atau dari emiten yang sama, dari waran atau hak memesan efek atau kepentingan lain dari efek tersebut). Seluruh informasi dan opini yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini dengan cara baik telah dihimpun dari atau berasal dari sumber-sumber yang dapat dipercaya dan diandalkan. Tidak ada pengatasnamaan atau jaminan, baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung dari BNI SEKURITAS atau pun pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI, termasuk pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI dari mana dokumen ini dapat diperoleh, terhadap keakuratan atau kelengkapan dari informasi yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini. Seluruh pendapat dan perkiraan dalam laporan ini merupakan pertimbangan kami pada tanggal tertera dan dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan.

Tuesday, August 8th 2017 D A I LY R E P O R T RESEARCH … · Tuesday, August 8th 2017 D A I LY R E...

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