Tuesday, 11.6.12 14 PRESS DAKOTAN It’s Time For The Voters...
Transcript of Tuesday, 11.6.12 14 PRESS DAKOTAN It’s Time For The Voters...
BY DAVID LIGHTMAN© 2012, McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON — After billionsof dollars, hours of debates andfrantic last-minute pitches fromthe candidates, it’s up to the vot-ers Tuesday to decide whetherto give President Barack Obamaa second term or change coursewith Republican Mitt Romney.
Also at stake is control of Con-gress. Thirty-three Senate seatsand all 435 House of Representa-tives seats are up this year, andwhile the House is expected toremain in Republican hands, Sen-ate control hinges on a host oftight races.
Turnout will be one key tohandicapping who’s winning theWhite House and congressionalbattles, heading a long list of un-knowns. Will the relentlessly neg-ative campaign help or hurt? Didsuperstorm Sandy benefit thepresident? Did early voting givehim a big advantage?
Once the polls close startingat 6 p.m. EST in Indiana and Ken-tucky, a number of early clueswill signal whether Obama orRomney will get the 270 electoralvotes needed to win. Polls onMonday continued to show therace a virtual tie nationally andin most of the 11 battlegroundstates.
The first hints of how thenight might go will come in fourearly poll-closing states: Virginia,North Carolina, New Hampshireand Indiana. Obama won all fourin 2008.
Romney needs all four if he’sto become the sixth person in100 years to defeat a sitting pres-ident. Should he falter in evenone, or the results become tooclose to call, this race won’t beover quickly.
Obama, on the other hand,can score an important win earlyby taking Florida. Losing its 29electoral votes would be a hugeblow to Romney, who haspushed hard for the state’s votesand began his last full campaignday Monday in Orlando.
“Tomorrow we begin a bettertomorrow,” Romney told about1,000 supporters, stressing hisclosing argument that Obamabungled the economy and is toofierce a partisan to work with Re-publicans.
The president was in Madi-son, Wis., where he appearedwith legendary rocker BruceSpringsteen.
“I stood with PresidentObama four years ago, and I’mproud to stand with him today,”Springsteen said. Obama huggedthe singer and reminded thecrowd, “We’ve got more changeto make.”
Turnout was expected to bedown somewhat from 2004 and2008, according to models devel-oped by the Gallup Organization.Voters “have not been quite asengaged” in the election, a Gallupanalysis said, and many voterscould be distracted by Sandy,whose impact is still being felt inparts of the Northeast.
As the night unfolds, here’show to watch the returns:
THE STATESMost states are solidly for
Obama or Romney, so 11 arelikely to decide the race. All havepolling places scheduled to closeby 10 p.m. EST. All went forObama last time, and he has tohold on to most of them to winagain.
Hour by hour:7 p.m. EST: Virginia. Obama’s
2008 victory was the first thereby a Democratic presidentialcandidate since 1964. Romneyneeds its 13 electoral votes.
7:30 p.m. EST: Ohio, NorthCarolina. Romney needs Ohioand its 18 electoral votes; no Re-publican has won the WhiteHouse without the state. NorthCarolina is another state Obamawon in 2008, the first time a De-mocrat had taken it in decades,
but Romney is counting on win-ning its 15 electoral votes. If not,he’s probably in trouble.
8 p.m. EST: New Hampshire,Florida, Pennsylvania. If Obamawins Florida, Romney’s chanceswould get shakier. But if Romneywins Pennsylvania’s 20 electoralvotes, which Obama has re-garded for months as his, thepresident should start worrying.The four electoral votes of NewHampshire — Democratic in thelast two elections — matter if therace stays close.
9 p.m. EST: Wisconsin, Col-orado, Michigan. A Romney winin Michigan — a state Obamawon last time by 16 percentagepoints — would be another signthat the president is faltering.Wisconsin and Colorado aretossups.
10 p.m. EST: Iowa, Nevada. Ne-vada has been trending Demo-cratic. A strong Latino turnoutwould be a signal that Obama isdoing well. Iowa is anothertossup.
WILD CARDSTurnout. Conventional wis-
dom says Democrats tend todominate early voting, while Re-publicans do better on ElectionDay, so a big turnout could mean
a big day for Romney.Latino voting. Tuesday marks
the culmination of four years ofregistering new voters in hopesof harnessing growing Latinoclout and finally shattering thereputation that Latinos are apa-thetic voters who can be ig-nored. In 2008, 50 percent ofeligible Latino voters cast bal-lots, compared with 65 percentof blacks and 66 percent ofwhites, according to the Pew His-panic Center.
The National Association ofLatino Elected and Appointed Of-ficials estimates that 12 millionLatino voters will visit the pollsin this year’s election, whichwould be a 26 percent increasefrom 2008. More than 3 millionLatinos are expected to vote intheir first presidential election. Abig turnout could mean the dif-ference in Colorado, Nevada andperhaps Arizona.
Long lines. Polls might stayopen past closing time, delayingthe vote count. But if lines are
too long and people get discour-aged, they might go home.
Hurricane Sandy. Will votersbe more sympathetic to Obamain hard-hit states such as Penn-sylvania or New Hampshire? Orblame the feds for being too slowto respond?
CANDIDATESRomney plans to vote early
Tuesday at a Belmont, Mass.,polling place near his home.Obama voted last month. Oncethe results are in, the presidentplans to address a rally atChicago’s McCormick Place.Romney will host supporters atthe Boston Convention and Exhi-bition Center.
CONGRESSOne of the night’s most unpre-
dictable cliffhangers involvescontrol of the Senate.
Democrats now control 53 ofthe 100 seats, and they’re defend-ing 23 to the Republicans’ 10.Close races in Virginia, Indianaand Massachusetts might offer
early hints as to whether Repub-licans can achieve the net gain offour — three, if Romney iselected — to win control.
The next group of close racesis farther west, notably in Wis-consin, Montana, Nevada andArizona.
In the House, Democrats needa net gain of 25 for control, butindependent analysts don’t ex-pect the party to gain more than10.
TELEVISIONIn most areas, full election
coverage begins at 6 p.m. EST onCNN and MSNBC, at 7 p.m. onABC, Fox, CBS, NBC and Univi-sion, and at 8 p.m. on PBS.
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