TTW findings and interpretations: What We Have Learned

Briefing for the Social Security Advisory Board’s Disability Policy Panel

June 10, 2014Paul O’Leary

Office of Research, Demonstration, and Employment Support

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Overview• Employment activity among beneficiaries who

participate in TTW and VR, or say that they want to work

• Changes after the new 2008 regulations

• Overall TTW Evaluation findings

• How earnings interact with benefits

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Employment activity among beneficiaries who participate in TTW and VR, or say that they

want to work

SSA Beneficiaries are Interested in Work

AllBeneficiaries

(2010)

Work-Oriented/ not TTW(2010)

TTW(2010)

Employed(2010)

% of Beneficiaries 100 38 2* 7

Sees self working for pay:

In the next yearIn the next five years

1727

4164

6073

8774

Sees self leaving disability benefits:In the next year In the next five years

616

1438

1841

1323

Goals of work/career advancement 31 74 76 50

4

SOURCE: 2010 National Beneficiary Survey (NBS, except* which is based on administrative data).

Many beneficiaries are acting on their interest in work

 

All Beneficiaries

(2010)

Work-oriented/not TTW (2010)

TTW (2010)

All Employed Beneficiaries

(2010)

Training/job modification/advice/on the job training 18 28 61 58

Work assessment/help to find a job 20 29 61 54

5

SOURCE: 2010 National Beneficiary Survey.

Not Work-Oriented Work-Oriented

All All DI-Only Concurrent SSI-Only

Earnings in at least one year (2004–2007) 15% 45% 49% 51% 37%

Average earnings $5,121 $7,091 $8,605 $4,781 $6,087

Earnings in all four years 5% 21% 24% 23% 15%

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Those who say they want to work do become employed.

Source: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. analysis based on 2004 NBS matched to annual IRS earnings data.

Note: Earnings expressed in 2007 dollars and computed as the mean of individual averages across all years with earnings among those with earnings in any year.

Over time many beneficiaries work and reach significant levels of success

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358,187(100%)

19,742(5.5%)

69,380(19.4%) 15 ,279

(4.3%)37,288(10.4%)

SSI Awarded

Positive Countable Earnings

Section 1619(a) or

1619(b)

Section 1619(b)

DI Current Pay

Suspended/Terminated

for Work

15,984(4.5%)

14,091(3.9%)

665,135(100%)

25,737(3.9%)

40,638(6.1%)

DIAwarded

TWPCompletion

Suspended for Work

10,868(1.6%)

Terminated for Work

Source: DAF, for 1996-2006 for SSDI and 1996-2007 for SSI.

SSI SSDI

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Work oriented beneficiaries are more likely to leave cash benefits

5.9

3.2

0.9

8.0

4.63.5

11.1

4.2

1.1

11.2

4.6

1.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Left for at least 1 month Left for >12 months Left for > 24 monthsAll Beneficiaries Work Oriented DI-onlyWork Oriented Concurrent Work Oriented SSI-only

Source: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. analysis based on 2004 NBS matched to 2007 TRF.

Note: Leaving the rolls due to work is defined as having monthly cash benefits suspended or terminated due to earnings.

Younger beneficiaries are much more likely to become employed

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46%

28%

SSISSDI

29%

41%

61%

SOURCE: 2010 DAF. Note: Work is defined as having earnings greater $1,000 in the given year.

Success beyond employment is also significantly higher for younger beneficiaries

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SSDI Age 18-39

SOURCE: 2010 DAF.

Outcomes are better for those getting services and better still when we pay for those services

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Number

Percent who worked at

some point by December

2012*

Percent who worked above

$1,000 in a year by

December 2012*

Percent who had at least

one month of benefits

suspended or terminated for

work by December

2012**

Percent not receiving a benefit in December 2012***

Total VR reimbursement

through December

2012 ($ millions)†

Total EN payments through

December 2012

($ millions)†

Total benefits forgone for

work through December

2012 ($ millions)

Began receiving VR services in 2006 62,331 76.5 63.8 15.8 4.0 52.1 0.2 267.5

Began receiving VR services in 2006 and no reimbursement was made 58,332 75.0 61.4 11.6 2.3 0.0 0.1 165.6

Began receiving VR services in 2006 and a reimbursement was made 3,999 99.8 99.7 76.9 28.0 52.1 0.1 101.9

Assigned a Ticket to an EN in 2006 4,284 81.8 71.6 25.1 7.9 0.7 7.9 36.6

Assigned a Ticket to an EN in 2006 and no EN payment was made 3,318 76.6 63.6 14.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.1

Assigned a Ticket to an EN in 2006 and an EN payment was made 966 99.4 99.2 60.9 25.4 0.3 7.9 24.4

Source: DAF12

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Hours and earnings are better for those who get services

 All Employed Beneficiaries

Employed TTW Participants

All Participants

Assigned to EN

Assigned to SVRA

Assigned under

Traditional Payment

Assigned under

Milestone-Outcome Payment

Assigned under

Outcome-Only

Payment

Mean Hours per Week 22 23 27 22 22 25 25

Mean Hourly Wage ($) $6.38 $8.04 $10.28 $7.85 $7.86 $8.44 $10.64

Mean Monthly Pay ($) $637 $828 $1,231 $796 $803 $891 $1,195

% Earning Above SGA (>$830/ month) 25 32 55 31 31 38 48

Source: 2010 National Beneficiary Survey.Note: Earnings expressed in 2010 dollars and computed as the mean among those with earnings.

Those who use services have greater long term employment success

13SOURCE: 2010 DAF.

Received Services from SVRA or EN?

No Yes

1996 Cohort Who Completed a TWP 51,870 8,891

Suspended for Work 32,342 62% 6,204 70%

Terminated for Work 17,505 34% 4324 49%

Months in Suspense/Termination Status Due to Work among Those Suspended

14Source: Analysis of TRF10 supplemented with DAF11.

Beneficiaries who experienced first NSTW in 2002 and were in NSTW in subsequent months as a percentage of all beneficiaries who could have experienced first NSTW in 2002

Changes after the new 2008 regulations

Overall changes after the new regulations

• Participation numbers increased after the new rules took effect, but the beneficiary participation rate for TTW was essentially unchanged at about 2.3% (280k)

• There was a shift from SVRAs (back) to ENs, with ENs assignments growing from 5% to 10%

Changes in participation

• The composition of TTW participants changed– New participants are younger, less educated,

more likely to have psychiatric conditions, and less likely to have ever worked for pay.

• Beneficiaries were:– less likely to report unmet service needs,– more likely to report satisfaction with TTW, but – less likely to be employed.

Overall success fell after the implementation of the new regulations

 

Cohort 1July 2006—June 2007

Cohort 2July 2007—June 2008

Cohort 3July 2008—June 2009

Percentage Change from Cohort 1 to Cohort 3

Number of Participants64,797 69,854 85,948 32.6

Traditional SVRA 60,649 64,109 72,076 18.8EN Payment Systems 4,148 5,745 13,872 234.4

MO 3,191 5,135 13,263 315.6OO 957 610 619 -35.3

Number of Participants with NSTW Month 3,730 3,411 3,246 -13.0Traditional SVRA 3,143 2,625 2,126 -32.4EN Payment Systems 587 786 1,120 90.8

MO 371 624 969 161.2OO 216 162 151 -30.1

Percent of Participants with NSTW Month 5.8 4.9 3.8 -34.4Traditional SVRA 5.2 4.1 3.0 -42.3EN Payment Systems 14.2 13.7 8.1 -43.0

MO 11.6 12.2 7.3 -37.0OO 22.6 26.6 24.8 9.7

Source: Analysis of TRF10 supplemented with DAF11.

• We believe this decline was primarily driven by the recession and changes in the composition of TTW participants.

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Overall TTW Evaluation findings

The bottom line on TTW impacts

We reexamined impacts under the original regulations using improved methods (it was not feasible to do so for the period after the change in regulations)

• We found relative to the VR-only program:– The TTW program had a positive impact on enrollment but – The TTW program did not increase the exits from SSA disability cash

benefits

• Using more robust evaluation methods and covering outcomes through 2007, this confirms our earlier findings

• Given the gross changes since the new regulations, it is unlikely they are generating positive net impacts

Interpretation

• This does not mean EN or TTW services have no effect. Only that: – EN and VR services under TTW had the

same effect as VR services prior to TTW, and

– Those beneficiaries at the margin, who got services because of TTW, did not reduce benefit receipt through TTW

Other general findings

Work supports are under-utilized:

• SSDI beneficiaries and SSI recipients generally have low awareness and use of many SSA work supports and employment programs.

• There is substantially greater awareness of SSA’s work supports among participants in the TTW program and employed SSDI beneficiaries and SSI recipients.

• Still, about 80% of those on SSDI and SSI who had their benefits suspended because of work did not do so under any of the employment services we fund.

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How earnings interact with benefits

(Are our employment expectations realistic?)

Patterns of Employment Before and After Award by Title

24Source: SSA DAF-MEF 2012Note: Employment defined as annual earnings greater than $0

Average earnings before and after award for all beneficiaries, 2007 awards

25Source: SSA DAF-MEF 2012Note: Average earnings includes those with $0 earnings.

26SOURCES: 2010 National Beneficiary Survey merged to DAF11-MEF data.Note: Average earnings do not include those with $0 earnings.

$10.00-$14.99

Wages and median earnings$15.00 or more

Less than $5.00

$5.00-$7.24

$7.25-$9.99

Average annual earnings five years before award compared to annualized Substantial Gainful Activity (SGA), 2007 awards

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SOURCES: DAF-MEF 2012.Note: Average earnings include those with $0 earnings.

Average benefits and earnings for all beneficiaries after award in 2009 compared to average earnings for all beneficiaries five years

before award, 2007 awards

28SOURCES: DAF-MEF 2012.Note: Average earnings do not include those with $0 earnings.

What Is the Earnings Distribution of Beneficiaries?

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No earn

ings

Died

Reach

ed fu

ll reti

remen

t age

Earning

less

than

$100

per m

onth

$100

to $2

00 pe

r mon

th

$200

to $3

00 pe

r mon

th

$300

to $4

00 pe

r mon

th

$400

to $5

00 pe

r mon

th

$500

to $6

00 pe

r mon

th

$600

to $7

00 pe

r mon

th

$700

to $8

00 pe

r mon

th

$800

to $9

00 pe

r mon

th

$900

to $1

,000 p

er mon

th

$1,00

0 to $

1,250

per m

onth

$1,25

0 to $

1,500

per m

onth

$1,50

0 to $

1,750

per m

onth

$1,75

0 to $

2,000

per m

onth

$2,00

0 to $

2,250

per m

onth

$2,25

0 to $

2,500

per m

onth

$2,50

0 to $

2,750

per m

onth

$2,75

0 to $

3,000

per m

onth

Above

$3,00

0 per

month

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.061.5

16.410.8

2.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7

Status of beneficiaries five years after award, 2004 awards

Perc

ent

<- 88.7 ->

SOURCES: DAF-MEF 2012.

Average earnings after award for all beneficiaries by status five years after award, 1997 awards

30SOURCES: DAF-MEF 2012.Note: Average earnings include those with $0 earnings except in 2002.

General observations about beneficiary work outcomes

• SSDI beneficiaries and SSI recipients work for extended periods but work part time at jobs with low wages and few benefits. – They work 20 hours per week on average, – 32% earn less than the federal minimum wage– 21% earn less than $5 per hour.

• So while many beneficiaries want to work at levels that would allow them to leave benefits, for most this seems out of their reach.

Conclusions

• Beneficiaries want to work and do act on that desire

• Programs like TTW and VR do help beneficiaries find jobs

• Beneficiaries in general do not appear able to work at levels that are high enough to let them leave benefits

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