Tsunami Workshop
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HYDROGRAPHIC ANDHYDROGRAPHIC AND
OCEANOGRAPHIC SERVICE OF THEOCEANOGRAPHIC SERVICE OF THE
CHILEAN NAVY (SHOA)CHILEAN NAVY (SHOA)
Numerical simulati! "r tsu!amiNumerical simulati! "r tsu!ami
i!u!#ati! ma$s i! C%ile&i!u!#ati! ma$s i! C%ile&
Dante Gutierrez
Nati!al Tsu!ami 'ar!i! SstemNati!al Tsu!ami 'ar!i! Sstem
Tsunami HazardTsunami Hazard
Mitigation and RiskMitigation and Risk
Assessment WorkshopAssessment Workshop
Santiago, ChileSantiago, Chile
29 - 3 Septem!er 2"29 - 3 Septem!er 2"
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!+,- I!tr#ucti!
- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5
HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!+,- I!tr#ucti!
- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5
HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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Su*#ucti! 9!e *et=ee! Na9ca a!#Su*#ucti! 9!e *et=ee! Na9ca a!#
Sut% America! Tect!ic PlatesSut% America! Tect!ic Plates
Sismos super#$iales
Sismos intermedios
Sismos pro%undos
NA>CA PLATENA>CA PLATESO3TH A1ERICAN PLATESO3TH A1ERICAN PLATE
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?i?i
Eart%@ua.es i!Eart%@ua.es i!C%ileC%ile
I- Ce!turI- Ce!tur
- 8 0 W - 7 5 W - 7 0 W - 6 5 W - 6 0 W
- 5 5 S
- 5 0 S
- 4 5 S
- 4 0 S
- 3 5 S
- 3 0 S
- 2 5 S
- 2 0 S
-
1 8 7 7
1 9 2 2
1 8 6 8
1 9 4 3
1 9 0 61 9 7 1
1 9 8 5
1 9 2 8
1 9 3 9
1 9 6 0
1 9 4 9
1 9 9 5
Tsu!ami e!erati! #e$e!#s5Tsu!ami e!erati! #e$e!#s5
Eart%@ua.eBs ma!itu#eEart%@ua.eBs ma!itu#e
Distri*uti! ru$ture 9!eDistri*uti! ru$ture 9!eOrie!tati! ru$ture 9!eOrie!tati! ru$ture 9!eRu$ture #ime!si!sRu$ture #ime!si!sE$ice!tre lcati!E$ice!tre lcati!Vertical #is$laceme!tVertical #is$laceme!t
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!,
- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5
HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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2 5
2 0
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
1 6 0 01 5 0 0 1 8 0 01 7 0 0 2 0 0 01 9 0 0
1
5
1
3
1
5
8
2
1
6
0
4
1
6
8
7
1
7
1
5 1
7
8
4
1
8
6
8
1
5
4
3
1
7
6
8
1
8
7
7
1
9
9
5
1
7
9
6
1
8
1
9
1
8
5
9
1
9
2
2
1
5
7
5
1
6
4
7
1
7
3
0
1
8
2
2
1
8
4
9
1
8
8
0 1
8
9
4
1
9
4
3
1
9
7
1
1
9
8
5
1
9
0
5
1
9
2
8
1
8
3
5
1
7
5
1
1
6
5
7
1
5
7
0
1
5
7
5
1
9
7
5
1
9
6
01
8
3
71
7
3
7
S
A o s
A n t r t i c a C h i l e n a
C D E ' 6 0 E '
8 D E8 D E
2 0 S
8 0 W 6 0 2 0
3 0 3 0
4 0 4 0
5 0
4 0 4 0
5 0
Le!t% "Le!t% "
Dislcati! >!esDislcati! >!es
Castal Tsu!amiCastal Tsu!ami
Eart%@ua.es al!Eart%@ua.es al!
t%e c%ilea! castt%e c%ilea! cast
+6 /6 $eri#+6 /6 $eri#
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Tsu!amisTsu!amis E""ectsE""ectsi! C%ilei! C%ile
ARICA5 A3G3ST +0: +8ARICA5 A3G3ST +0: +8
ARICA5 1AY : +
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Tsu!amisTsu!amis E""ectsE""ectsi! C%ilei! C%ile
CO3I1?O5 NOVE1?ER ++: +//CO3I1?O5 NOVE1?ER ++: +//
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Tsu!amisTsu!amis E""ectsE""ectsi! C%ilei! C%ile
CORRAL5 1AY //: +8CORRAL5 1AY //: +8
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Tsu!amisTsu!amis E""ectsE""ectsi! C%ilei! C%ile
CORRAL5 1AY //: +8CORRAL5 1AY //: +8
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Tsu!ami Pr$aati!Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
PROPAGATION IN OPEN OCEANPROPAGATION IN OPEN OCEAN
TS3NA1I 'AVES 3NDERGO CHANGES D3E TOTS3NA1I 'AVES 3NDERGO CHANGES D3E TO
REFRACTION D3RING PROPAGATIONREFRACTION D3RING PROPAGATION AS IF THEYAS IF THEY'ERE SHALLO' 'ATER 'AVES,'ERE SHALLO' 'ATER 'AVES,
IN CO1PARISON:IN CO1PARISON: ENERGY LOSSES ANDENERGY LOSSES AND
SPREADING IS LO' IN DEEP 'ATER,SPREADING IS LO' IN DEEP 'ATER,
ENERGY DISSIPATION ISENERGY DISSIPATION IS EPECTED TO ?EEPECTED TO ?E
I1PORTANT IN SHALLO' 'ATERSI1PORTANT IN SHALLO' 'ATERS,,
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5
HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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Tsu!ami Pr$aati!Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
'%e! tsu!ami =a;es $r$aate'%e! tsu!ami =a;es $r$aate i!t castal areasi!t castal areast%et%e
i!teract =it% t%e castal *at%metric a!# t$ra$%ici!teract =it% t%e castal *at%metric a!# t$ra$%ic
"eatures"eaturesi! a ;ariet " =as5i! a ;ariet " =as5
- Re"lecti!- Re"lecti!- S%ali! a!# Re"racti!- S%ali! a!# Re"racti!
Tsu!amis ma lcall *e5Tsu!amis ma lcall *e5
- Re"lecte#- Re"lecte#
- Tra$$e#- Tra$$e#- Fcuse#- Fcuse#
Tsu!amis e!teri! *a ca! *e su*4ecte# t res!a!tTsu!amis e!teri! *a ca! *e su*4ecte# t res!a!t
c!#iti!s: resulti! i! a su*sta!tial i!crease " =a;ec!#iti!s: resulti! i! a su*sta!tial i!crease " =a;e
%ei%ts at $articular castal $i!ts%ei%ts at $articular castal $i!ts,,
150300450750 600900
PENINSULA
Wave-rays convergence
BAY
Wave-rays divergence
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Tsu!ami Pr$aati!Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
TSUNAM S!""# TSUNAM S!""# TSUNAM S!""#
#"!T$ #"!T$#"!T$
S"A %"&"%
S"A '%(()
#S!%A*"M"NT
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5
HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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Numerical 1#elli!Numerical 1#elli!
1#elli! t%e i!u!#ati!1#elli! t%e i!u!#ati!
VariusVarius
'a;e t$e *rea.i! =a;es: !!-*rea.i!'a;e t$e *rea.i! =a;es: !!-*rea.i!
=a;es: ra$i# rise "all a!# *re=a;es: ra$i# rise "all a!# *re
Ru%!ess "actrRu%!ess "actr
Re@uireRe@uire
Nears%re *atimetr t at least J+ m c!turNears%re *atimetr t at least J+ m c!tur
i!ter;ali!ter;al
Nears%re t$ra$% t at least 6 m c!turNears%re t$ra$% t at least 6 m c!tur
i!ter;ali!ter;al
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Numerical 1#elli!Numerical 1#elli!
P=er"ul tl "r5P=er"ul tl "r5
- Ha9ar# assessme!t,- Ha9ar# assessme!t,- 'rst case sce!aris,- 'rst case sce!aris,- 3!#ersta!#i! $ast e;e!ts,- 3!#ersta!#i! $ast e;e!ts,- Frecasti! t%e e""ects " $te!tial "uture e;e!ts,- Frecasti! t%e e""ects " $te!tial "uture e;e!ts,- Real-time "recasti! " =a;e-%ei%ts "rm #ista!t- Real-time "recasti! " =a;e-%ei%ts "rm #ista!t
surce e;e!tssurce e;e!ts- De;el$i! #ata*ase " $te!tial lcal surce e;e!ts- De;el$i! #ata*ase " $te!tial lcal surce e;e!ts
"r real time lcal e;e!t "recasti!,"r real time lcal e;e!t "recasti!,
Selecti! " a$$r$riate surces critical "r lcal tsu!amis,Selecti! " a$$r$riate surces critical "r lcal tsu!amis,
3se " a$$r$riate m#elli! tec%!i@ue: *u!#ar3se " a$$r$riate m#elli! tec%!i@ue: *u!#arc!#iti!s: a$$r7imati!s: critical case: etc,c!#iti!s: a$$r7imati!s: critical case: etc,
Cali*rati! =it% %istrical e;e!tsKti#e aue recr#sCali*rati! =it% %istrical e;e!tsKti#e aue recr#s
a#;isa*le,a#;isa*le,
-
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5
HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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CITS3 PROECTCITS3 PROECT
Prcessi! " Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! 1a$s "rPrcessi! " Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! 1a$s "r
t%e C%ilea! Castt%e C%ilea! Cast
Si!ce +8 NT'S %as *ee! $r#uci!Si!ce +8 NT'S %as *ee! $r#uci!
i!u!#ati! c%arts "r t%e mai! $rtsi!u!#ati! c%arts "r t%e mai! $rts t %el$t %el$t%e Ci;il a!# Na; Aut%rities t emere!ct%e Ci;il a!# Na; Aut%rities t emere!c
$la!s a!# mitiate t%e e""ects " tsu!amis,$la!s a!# mitiate t%e e""ects " tsu!amis,
A Numerical simulati! tec%!i@ue tA Numerical simulati! tec%!i@ue t
m#elli! " t%e $te!tial e""ects " tsu!amism#elli! " t%e $te!tial e""ects " tsu!amis
%as *ee! use# i! r#er t e;aluati! tsu!ami%as *ee! use# i! r#er t e;aluati! tsu!ami
ris. i! t%e c%ilea! %ar*ursris. i! t%e c%ilea! %ar*urs,,
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T3NA1I-N c#e =as use#T3NA1I-N c#e =as use#M+M+:: a !umerical "acilita !umerical "acilit
"r t%e m#elli! " !ear "iel# tsu!amis:"r t%e m#elli! " !ear "iel# tsu!amis:
#e;el$e# * Dr, S%ut i! T%.u 3!i;ersit#e;el$e# * Dr, S%ut i! T%.u 3!i;ersit::a$a!: *ase# ! a lea$-"r "i!ite #i""ere!cea$a!: *ase# ! a lea$-"r "i!ite #i""ere!ce
sc%eme a!# i!clu#es t%e e!erati!:sc%eme a!# i!clu#es t%e e!erati!:
$r$aati! a!# ru!-u$ " tsu!ami =a;es *$r$aati! a!# ru!-u$ " tsu!ami =a;es *
mea!s " t%e s%all= =ater =a;e t%er,mea!s " t%e s%all= =ater =a;e t%er,
[1]TUNAMI-N is the acronym for Tohoku Universitys Numerical Analysis Modelfor Investigation of Near-ield Tsunamis!
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
I3GGKIOC TI1E PROECTI3GGKIOC TI1E PROECT
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Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
Numerical 1#elli!5Numerical 1#elli!5
1#elli! t%e surce 1#elli! t%e surce Eart%@ua.esEart%@ua.es
Assume i!sta!ta!eus u$li"tAssume i!sta!ta!eus u$li"t
Vertical m;eme!t usuall mst im$rta!tVertical m;eme!t usuall mst im$rta!t
Hri9!tal m;eme!t ccasi!all im$rta!tHri9!tal m;eme!t ccasi!all im$rta!t T%e seismic e;e!ts =ere selecte# "rmT%e seismic e;e!ts =ere selecte# "rm
%istrical recr#s " eart%@ua.es ccurre# i!%istrical recr#s " eart%@ua.es ccurre# i!
C%ileC%ile
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Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
1#elli! t%e tsu!ami1#elli! t%e tsu!ami
L! 'a;e e@uati!sL! 'a;e e@uati!sCrilis term !ear "iel# e;e!ts ca! *e #r$$e#Crilis term !ear "iel# e;e!ts ca! *e #r$$e#
?ttm "ricti! term?ttm "ricti! term im$rta!t i! s%all= =ater im$rta!t i! s%all= =ater
N!-li!ear termsN!-li!ear terms im$rta!t i! s%all= =aterim$rta!t i! s%all= =ater
Numerical m#elli! tec%!i@ueNumerical m#elli! tec%!i@ueFi!ite Di""ere!ceFi!ite Di""ere!ce ((recta!ular ri#)recta!ular ri#)
Gri# #e!sit i!creases =it% #ecreasi! =ater #e$t%Gri# #e!sit i!creases =it% #ecreasi! =ater #e$t%
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Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
1#elli!1#elli!
t%ec%!i@ue5t%ec%!i@ue5
Fi!ite Di""ere!ceFi!ite Di""ere!ce
1#elli!1#elli!
Neste# carse t "i!eNeste# carse t "i!e
recta!ular ri#s "recta!ular ri#s "
#i""ere!ts resluti!#i""ere!ts resluti!GRID B 833x833m
GRID C 28x28m
GRID A 24!8x24!8m "#artial $ie%&
GRID D
!3x!3m
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Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
Recta!ularRecta!ular
ri# A " +&ri# A " +&
resluti!resluti!
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5
HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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&umeri$al ModellingResults
N
3INTERO ?AY- GRID 0&
(T%e scale is #e"rme#)
3INTERO ?AY- GRID 0&
TRIDI1ENSIONAL VIE'
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&umeri$al ModellingResults
PARA1ETER
ESTI1ATION
Sut%-=ester! cr!er " t%e
ru$ture 9!e
08S
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&umeri$al ModellingResults
Distri*uti! " u$li"t a!# su*si#e!ce i! t%e surceDistri*uti! " u$li"t a!# su*si#e!ce i! t%e surce
rei! (ri# +&), +
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&umeri$al ModellingResults
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&umeri$al ModellingResults
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&umeri$al ModellingResults
0D Numerical Simulati! i! ui!ter *a: C%ile0D Numerical Simulati! i! ui!ter *a: C%ile
http://var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_2/C:%5CMATLAB6p5%5Cbin%5Cwin32%5Cmatlab.exe -
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&umeri$al ModellingResults
T "acilitate t%e $r#ucti! " t%e tsu!amiT "acilitate t%e $r#ucti! " t%e tsu!ami
"l#i! c%art: a smt% li!e is i!ter$late#"l#i! c%art: a smt% li!e is i!ter$late#
*et=ee! ri# results accr#i! t t%e small*et=ee! ri# results accr#i! t t%e small
scale t$ra$%ic "eatures !t #escri*e# i! t%escale t$ra$%ic "eatures !t #escri*e# i! t%e
0 7 0 m ri#,0 7 0 m ri#,
ui!ter *aui!ter *a ui!ter *aui!ter *a
Ve!ta!asVe!ta!as Ve!ta!asVe!ta!as
Pe!Q!sulaPe!Q!sula
Ls 1llesLs 1llesPe!Q!sulaPe!Q!sula
Ls 1llesLs 1lles
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5
HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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.Antofagasta
Puerto Montt.
.Arica
Talcahuano.
Valparaso.
Coquimbo.
CITS3 Pr4ectCITS3 Pr4ect
Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! 1a$s 5 A $la!!i! tlTsu!ami I!u!#ati! 1a$s 5 A $la!!i! tl
Arica
I@ui@ue
Tc$illa - 1e4ill!es
A!t"aasta
Taltal
C%aaral Cal#era - Huasc
La Sere!a C@uim*
Ls Vils - Pa$u#
ui!ter - Via #el 1ar Val$araQs
Alarr* - Sa! A!t!i
C!stituci! - Pe!c - Tm
Lir@u! - Talca%ua!
Sa! Vice!te Cr!el - Le*u
Crral
A!cu#
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Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts
(1ai! $rts al! t%e C%ilea! cast)
Estimate# Tsu!ami I!u!#ati!Estimate# Tsu!ami I!u!#ati!
at I@ui@ue: C%ile: *ase# !at I@ui@ue: C%ile: *ase# !
!umerical m#el results,!umerical m#el results,
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Sa! A!t!iSa! A!t!i
Har*urHar*ur
http://../Presentacion%20San%20Antonio/CITSU_San%20Antonio.PDF -
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Gra$%ic a!# P%tra$%ic Re$rtsGra$%ic a!# P%tra$%ic Re$rts
Fl#i! AreasFl#i! Areas
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De;el$me!t " %a9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!:De;el$me!t " %a9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!:
$re$are#!ess a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile$re$are#!ess a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
3si! CITS3 $r4ect ma$s Arica: A!t"aasta:3si! CITS3 $r4ect ma$s Arica: A!t"aasta:
Via #el 1ar Emere!c O""ices %a;e #esi!e# aVia #el 1ar Emere!c O""ices %a;e #esi!e# a
Ha9ar# a!# Resurces 1a$ "r eac% tsu!ami ris.Ha9ar# a!# Resurces 1a$ "r eac% tsu!ami ris.
9!e9!e,, Tsu!ami Emere!c a!# E;acuati! Pla!s $re$areTsu!ami Emere!c a!# E;acuati! Pla!s $re$are
a!# e#ucate t%e $$ulati!a!# e#ucate t%e $$ulati! "r alert: cr#i!ate:"r alert: cr#i!ate:
e;aluate: resl;e a!# ta.e $la!s #ecisi! i!terate# te;aluate: resl;e a!# ta.e $la!s #ecisi! i!terate# t
;er!me!t a!# lcal emere!c ae!cies acti!s: s;er!me!t a!# lcal emere!c ae!cies acti!s: s
t%at t%e $$ulati! .!=s =%at t # accr#i! t t%et%at t%e $$ulati! .!=s =%at t # accr#i! t t%earea it li;es,area it li;es,
Arica a!# A!t"aasta %a;e im$leme!te# a sstemArica a!# A!t"aasta %a;e im$leme!te# a sstem
" alarm " Tsu!ami =it% sire!s " earl alert," alarm " Tsu!ami =it% sire!s " earl alert,
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Tsu!ami si!als i!
t%e Via #el 1ar cit
Tsu!ami si!als i!
t%e Via #el 1ar cit
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Tsu!ami si!als i!
Arica cit
Tsu!ami si!als i!
Arica cit
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42Tsu!ami sire!s lcate# i! A!t"aasta a!# Arica $rtsTsu!ami sire!s lcate# i! A!t"aasta a!# Arica $rts
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Ta*le " c!te!ts
+,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!
- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile
/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!
0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!
2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5
Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis
6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts
- H- Ha9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess
a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile
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Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s
'it%i! t%e $erati;e c!te7t:'it%i! t%e $erati;e c!te7t: NT'S #!BtNT'S #!Bt
%a;e t%e tec%!ical $era*ilit et t estimate%a;e t%e tec%!ical $era*ilit et t estimate
i! real time t%e $te!tial im$act " tsu!amii! real time t%e $te!tial im$act " tsu!ami
=a;es arri;i! t t%e c%ilea! cast,=a;es arri;i! t t%e c%ilea! cast, Desi! a!# im$leme!t a !umerical m#el "rDesi! a!# im$leme!t a !umerical m#el "r
t%e "recast " ru!-u$s " !ear a!# "ar "iel#t%e "recast " ru!-u$s " !ear a!# "ar "iel#
e;e!tse;e!ts: i! r#er t estimate t%e $te!tial: i! r#er t estimate t%e $te!tial
im$act " tsu!amis ! t%e c%ilea! cast:im$act " tsu!amis ! t%e c%ilea! cast:*ase# ! real time #ata " sea le;el *tai!e#*ase# ! real time #ata " sea le;el *tai!e#
"rm stati!s lcate# clse t t%e surce a!#"rm stati!s lcate# clse t t%e surce a!#
"rm DART *us,"rm DART *us,
Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s
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46C'm#'nent( ') *(+nami ,'reca(tC'm#'nent( ') *(+nami ,'reca(t
Pre-computed Forecast
Database of Linear
Propagation Solutions
initial seismic data
tsunameter data
Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s
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Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s
De;el$ " i!u!#ati! ma$s "r t%ers castal citiesDe;el$ " i!u!#ati! ma$s "r t%ers castal cities" C%ile (CITS3 II $r4ect)" C%ile (CITS3 II $r4ect)
I!clu#e "ar "iel# simulati! a!# =a;e $r$aati! "I!clu#e "ar "iel# simulati! a!# =a;e $r$aati! "tsu!ami eart%@ua.es t=ar# i!sular areas " C%iletsu!ami eart%@ua.es t=ar# i!sular areas " C%ile
Im$r;e t%e m#elli! tec%!i@ue: t%ru% P%ase IIIm$r;e t%e m#elli! tec%!i@ue: t%ru% P%ase II" TI1E $r4ect 5" TI1E $r4ect 5
3si! *etter resluti! =it% "3si! *etter resluti! =it% "i!ite eleme!tsi!ite eleme!ts
Sta*ilit " !umerical cm$utati! "r e7tremeSta*ilit " !umerical cm$utati! "r e7tremeseismic $arameters a!# *r#er c!#iti!s i! t%eseismic $arameters a!# *r#er c!#iti!s i! t%eri#s *u!#arri#s *u!#ar
Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s
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Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s
D/*1
8000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
-500
-000
50
500
250
-00
50
0
Fi!iteFi!ite
eleme!teleme!tm#elli!m#elli!
ri#ri#
2aria3le (i4e trian5+lar 5ri6(72aria3le (i4e trian5+lar 5ri6(7
(i4e $arie( %ith 6e#th an6(i4e $arie( %ith 6e#th an6(tr'n5 6e#th c'ntra(t((tr'n5 6e#th c'ntra(t(
Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s
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Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s
Tsu!amis "ar "iel# simulati!Tsu!amis "ar "iel# simulati!
-00AD Ca(ca6ia earth8+a9e "#r'3a3le ma5nit+6e :!& *ran(.aci)ic t(+nami #r'#a5ati'n ; Sata9e et al-00AD Ca(ca6ia earth8+a9e "#r'3a3le ma5nit+6e :!& *ran(.aci)ic t(+nami #r'#a5ati'n ; Sata9e et al
Rece!t Tsu!amisRece!t Tsu!amis
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Jan 1, 1996
Wave height: 3.4 mVictims: 9
Sulawesi Is.Nov 14, 1994
Wave height: 7 mVictims: 49
Mindoro Is.Jul 12, 1993
Wave height: 31 mVictims: 239
Okushiri !a"an
Feb 17, 1996
Wave height : 7.7 mVictims: 161
Irian !a#a Jul 17, 199Wave height : 1! mVictims: "22##
$a"ua %ew &uinea
Nov 26, 1999Jan 3, 2##2
Wave height: 3 m
Without victims
'anua(u Is.
$ct 9, 199!
Wave height: 11 mVictims: 1
!alis)o Me*i)o
%e& 2, 1992Wave height : 1# m
Victims: 17#
%i)ara+ua
Feb 21, 1996
Wave height: ! mVictims: 12
%or(hern $eru
Jun 23, 2##1
Wave height: 2 mVictims: !#
Sou(hern $eru
'ec 12, 1992
Wave height: 26 mVictims: "1###
,lores Is.
Jun 2, 1994
Wave height: 14 m
Victims: 23
!a-a
'ec 26, 2##4
Wave height: 1# mVictims: 36#.###(
Sua(ra
Rece!t Tsu!amisRece!t Tsu!amis
'%e! =ill t%e !e7t Tsu!ami'%e! =ill t%e !e7t Tsu!ami
Eart%@ua.es %a$$e! i! C%ileUEart%@ua.es %a$$e! i! C%ileU
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/ID/ . S1=W/ID/ . S1=W
Tsunami HazardTsunami Hazard
Mitigation and RiskMitigation and Risk
Assessment WorkshopAssessment Workshop
Santiago, ChileSantiago, Chile
29 - 3 Septem!er 2"29 - 3 Septem!er 2"