Tsunami Workshop

download Tsunami Workshop

of 51

Transcript of Tsunami Workshop

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    1/51

    1

    HYDROGRAPHIC ANDHYDROGRAPHIC AND

    OCEANOGRAPHIC SERVICE OF THEOCEANOGRAPHIC SERVICE OF THE

    CHILEAN NAVY (SHOA)CHILEAN NAVY (SHOA)

    Numerical simulati! "r tsu!amiNumerical simulati! "r tsu!ami

    i!u!#ati! ma$s i! C%ile&i!u!#ati! ma$s i! C%ile&

    Dante Gutierrez

    Nati!al Tsu!ami 'ar!i! SstemNati!al Tsu!ami 'ar!i! Sstem

    Tsunami HazardTsunami Hazard

    Mitigation and RiskMitigation and Risk

    Assessment WorkshopAssessment Workshop

    Santiago, ChileSantiago, Chile

    29 - 3 Septem!er 2"29 - 3 Septem!er 2"

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    2/51

    2

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!+,- I!tr#ucti!

    - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5

    HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    3/51

    3

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!+,- I!tr#ucti!

    - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5

    HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    4/51

    4

    Su*#ucti! 9!e *et=ee! Na9ca a!#Su*#ucti! 9!e *et=ee! Na9ca a!#

    Sut% America! Tect!ic PlatesSut% America! Tect!ic Plates

    Sismos super#$iales

    Sismos intermedios

    Sismos pro%undos

    NA>CA PLATENA>CA PLATESO3TH A1ERICAN PLATESO3TH A1ERICAN PLATE

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    5/51

    5

    ?i?i

    Eart%@ua.es i!Eart%@ua.es i!C%ileC%ile

    I- Ce!turI- Ce!tur

    - 8 0 W - 7 5 W - 7 0 W - 6 5 W - 6 0 W

    - 5 5 S

    - 5 0 S

    - 4 5 S

    - 4 0 S

    - 3 5 S

    - 3 0 S

    - 2 5 S

    - 2 0 S

    -

    1 8 7 7

    1 9 2 2

    1 8 6 8

    1 9 4 3

    1 9 0 61 9 7 1

    1 9 8 5

    1 9 2 8

    1 9 3 9

    1 9 6 0

    1 9 4 9

    1 9 9 5

    Tsu!ami e!erati! #e$e!#s5Tsu!ami e!erati! #e$e!#s5

    Eart%@ua.eBs ma!itu#eEart%@ua.eBs ma!itu#e

    Distri*uti! ru$ture 9!eDistri*uti! ru$ture 9!eOrie!tati! ru$ture 9!eOrie!tati! ru$ture 9!eRu$ture #ime!si!sRu$ture #ime!si!sE$ice!tre lcati!E$ice!tre lcati!Vertical #is$laceme!tVertical #is$laceme!t

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    6/51

    6

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!,

    - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5

    HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    7/51

    7

    2 5

    2 0

    3 0

    3 5

    4 0

    4 5

    1 6 0 01 5 0 0 1 8 0 01 7 0 0 2 0 0 01 9 0 0

    1

    5

    1

    3

    1

    5

    8

    2

    1

    6

    0

    4

    1

    6

    8

    7

    1

    7

    1

    5 1

    7

    8

    4

    1

    8

    6

    8

    1

    5

    4

    3

    1

    7

    6

    8

    1

    8

    7

    7

    1

    9

    9

    5

    1

    7

    9

    6

    1

    8

    1

    9

    1

    8

    5

    9

    1

    9

    2

    2

    1

    5

    7

    5

    1

    6

    4

    7

    1

    7

    3

    0

    1

    8

    2

    2

    1

    8

    4

    9

    1

    8

    8

    0 1

    8

    9

    4

    1

    9

    4

    3

    1

    9

    7

    1

    1

    9

    8

    5

    1

    9

    0

    5

    1

    9

    2

    8

    1

    8

    3

    5

    1

    7

    5

    1

    1

    6

    5

    7

    1

    5

    7

    0

    1

    5

    7

    5

    1

    9

    7

    5

    1

    9

    6

    01

    8

    3

    71

    7

    3

    7

    S

    A o s

    A n t r t i c a C h i l e n a

    C D E ' 6 0 E '

    8 D E8 D E

    2 0 S

    8 0 W 6 0 2 0

    3 0 3 0

    4 0 4 0

    5 0

    4 0 4 0

    5 0

    Le!t% "Le!t% "

    Dislcati! >!esDislcati! >!es

    Castal Tsu!amiCastal Tsu!ami

    Eart%@ua.es al!Eart%@ua.es al!

    t%e c%ilea! castt%e c%ilea! cast

    +6 /6 $eri#+6 /6 $eri#

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    8/51

    8

    Tsu!amisTsu!amis E""ectsE""ectsi! C%ilei! C%ile

    ARICA5 A3G3ST +0: +8ARICA5 A3G3ST +0: +8

    ARICA5 1AY : +

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    9/51

    9

    Tsu!amisTsu!amis E""ectsE""ectsi! C%ilei! C%ile

    CO3I1?O5 NOVE1?ER ++: +//CO3I1?O5 NOVE1?ER ++: +//

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    10/51

    10

    Tsu!amisTsu!amis E""ectsE""ectsi! C%ilei! C%ile

    CORRAL5 1AY //: +8CORRAL5 1AY //: +8

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    11/51

    11

    Tsu!amisTsu!amis E""ectsE""ectsi! C%ilei! C%ile

    CORRAL5 1AY //: +8CORRAL5 1AY //: +8

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    12/51

    12

    Tsu!ami Pr$aati!Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    PROPAGATION IN OPEN OCEANPROPAGATION IN OPEN OCEAN

    TS3NA1I 'AVES 3NDERGO CHANGES D3E TOTS3NA1I 'AVES 3NDERGO CHANGES D3E TO

    REFRACTION D3RING PROPAGATIONREFRACTION D3RING PROPAGATION AS IF THEYAS IF THEY'ERE SHALLO' 'ATER 'AVES,'ERE SHALLO' 'ATER 'AVES,

    IN CO1PARISON:IN CO1PARISON: ENERGY LOSSES ANDENERGY LOSSES AND

    SPREADING IS LO' IN DEEP 'ATER,SPREADING IS LO' IN DEEP 'ATER,

    ENERGY DISSIPATION ISENERGY DISSIPATION IS EPECTED TO ?EEPECTED TO ?E

    I1PORTANT IN SHALLO' 'ATERSI1PORTANT IN SHALLO' 'ATERS,,

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    13/51

    13

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5

    HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    14/51

    14

    Tsu!ami Pr$aati!Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    '%e! tsu!ami =a;es $r$aate'%e! tsu!ami =a;es $r$aate i!t castal areasi!t castal areast%et%e

    i!teract =it% t%e castal *at%metric a!# t$ra$%ici!teract =it% t%e castal *at%metric a!# t$ra$%ic

    "eatures"eaturesi! a ;ariet " =as5i! a ;ariet " =as5

    - Re"lecti!- Re"lecti!- S%ali! a!# Re"racti!- S%ali! a!# Re"racti!

    Tsu!amis ma lcall *e5Tsu!amis ma lcall *e5

    - Re"lecte#- Re"lecte#

    - Tra$$e#- Tra$$e#- Fcuse#- Fcuse#

    Tsu!amis e!teri! *a ca! *e su*4ecte# t res!a!tTsu!amis e!teri! *a ca! *e su*4ecte# t res!a!t

    c!#iti!s: resulti! i! a su*sta!tial i!crease " =a;ec!#iti!s: resulti! i! a su*sta!tial i!crease " =a;e

    %ei%ts at $articular castal $i!ts%ei%ts at $articular castal $i!ts,,

    150300450750 600900

    PENINSULA

    Wave-rays convergence

    BAY

    Wave-rays divergence

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    15/51

    15

    Tsu!ami Pr$aati!Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    TSUNAM S!""# TSUNAM S!""# TSUNAM S!""#

    #"!T$ #"!T$#"!T$

    S"A %"&"%

    S"A '%(()

    #S!%A*"M"NT

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    16/51

    16

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5

    HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    17/51

    17

    Numerical 1#elli!Numerical 1#elli!

    1#elli! t%e i!u!#ati!1#elli! t%e i!u!#ati!

    VariusVarius

    'a;e t$e *rea.i! =a;es: !!-*rea.i!'a;e t$e *rea.i! =a;es: !!-*rea.i!

    =a;es: ra$i# rise "all a!# *re=a;es: ra$i# rise "all a!# *re

    Ru%!ess "actrRu%!ess "actr

    Re@uireRe@uire

    Nears%re *atimetr t at least J+ m c!turNears%re *atimetr t at least J+ m c!tur

    i!ter;ali!ter;al

    Nears%re t$ra$% t at least 6 m c!turNears%re t$ra$% t at least 6 m c!tur

    i!ter;ali!ter;al

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    18/51

    18

    Numerical 1#elli!Numerical 1#elli!

    P=er"ul tl "r5P=er"ul tl "r5

    - Ha9ar# assessme!t,- Ha9ar# assessme!t,- 'rst case sce!aris,- 'rst case sce!aris,- 3!#ersta!#i! $ast e;e!ts,- 3!#ersta!#i! $ast e;e!ts,- Frecasti! t%e e""ects " $te!tial "uture e;e!ts,- Frecasti! t%e e""ects " $te!tial "uture e;e!ts,- Real-time "recasti! " =a;e-%ei%ts "rm #ista!t- Real-time "recasti! " =a;e-%ei%ts "rm #ista!t

    surce e;e!tssurce e;e!ts- De;el$i! #ata*ase " $te!tial lcal surce e;e!ts- De;el$i! #ata*ase " $te!tial lcal surce e;e!ts

    "r real time lcal e;e!t "recasti!,"r real time lcal e;e!t "recasti!,

    Selecti! " a$$r$riate surces critical "r lcal tsu!amis,Selecti! " a$$r$riate surces critical "r lcal tsu!amis,

    3se " a$$r$riate m#elli! tec%!i@ue: *u!#ar3se " a$$r$riate m#elli! tec%!i@ue: *u!#arc!#iti!s: a$$r7imati!s: critical case: etc,c!#iti!s: a$$r7imati!s: critical case: etc,

    Cali*rati! =it% %istrical e;e!tsKti#e aue recr#sCali*rati! =it% %istrical e;e!tsKti#e aue recr#s

    a#;isa*le,a#;isa*le,

    -

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    19/51

    19

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5

    HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    20/51

    20

    CITS3 PROECTCITS3 PROECT

    Prcessi! " Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! 1a$s "rPrcessi! " Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! 1a$s "r

    t%e C%ilea! Castt%e C%ilea! Cast

    Si!ce +8 NT'S %as *ee! $r#uci!Si!ce +8 NT'S %as *ee! $r#uci!

    i!u!#ati! c%arts "r t%e mai! $rtsi!u!#ati! c%arts "r t%e mai! $rts t %el$t %el$t%e Ci;il a!# Na; Aut%rities t emere!ct%e Ci;il a!# Na; Aut%rities t emere!c

    $la!s a!# mitiate t%e e""ects " tsu!amis,$la!s a!# mitiate t%e e""ects " tsu!amis,

    A Numerical simulati! tec%!i@ue tA Numerical simulati! tec%!i@ue t

    m#elli! " t%e $te!tial e""ects " tsu!amism#elli! " t%e $te!tial e""ects " tsu!amis

    %as *ee! use# i! r#er t e;aluati! tsu!ami%as *ee! use# i! r#er t e;aluati! tsu!ami

    ris. i! t%e c%ilea! %ar*ursris. i! t%e c%ilea! %ar*urs,,

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    21/51

    21

    T3NA1I-N c#e =as use#T3NA1I-N c#e =as use#M+M+:: a !umerical "acilita !umerical "acilit

    "r t%e m#elli! " !ear "iel# tsu!amis:"r t%e m#elli! " !ear "iel# tsu!amis:

    #e;el$e# * Dr, S%ut i! T%.u 3!i;ersit#e;el$e# * Dr, S%ut i! T%.u 3!i;ersit::a$a!: *ase# ! a lea$-"r "i!ite #i""ere!cea$a!: *ase# ! a lea$-"r "i!ite #i""ere!ce

    sc%eme a!# i!clu#es t%e e!erati!:sc%eme a!# i!clu#es t%e e!erati!:

    $r$aati! a!# ru!-u$ " tsu!ami =a;es *$r$aati! a!# ru!-u$ " tsu!ami =a;es *

    mea!s " t%e s%all= =ater =a;e t%er,mea!s " t%e s%all= =ater =a;e t%er,

    [1]TUNAMI-N is the acronym for Tohoku Universitys Numerical Analysis Modelfor Investigation of Near-ield Tsunamis!

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    I3GGKIOC TI1E PROECTI3GGKIOC TI1E PROECT

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    22/51

    22

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    Numerical 1#elli!5Numerical 1#elli!5

    1#elli! t%e surce 1#elli! t%e surce Eart%@ua.esEart%@ua.es

    Assume i!sta!ta!eus u$li"tAssume i!sta!ta!eus u$li"t

    Vertical m;eme!t usuall mst im$rta!tVertical m;eme!t usuall mst im$rta!t

    Hri9!tal m;eme!t ccasi!all im$rta!tHri9!tal m;eme!t ccasi!all im$rta!t T%e seismic e;e!ts =ere selecte# "rmT%e seismic e;e!ts =ere selecte# "rm

    %istrical recr#s " eart%@ua.es ccurre# i!%istrical recr#s " eart%@ua.es ccurre# i!

    C%ileC%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    23/51

    23

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    1#elli! t%e tsu!ami1#elli! t%e tsu!ami

    L! 'a;e e@uati!sL! 'a;e e@uati!sCrilis term !ear "iel# e;e!ts ca! *e #r$$e#Crilis term !ear "iel# e;e!ts ca! *e #r$$e#

    ?ttm "ricti! term?ttm "ricti! term im$rta!t i! s%all= =ater im$rta!t i! s%all= =ater

    N!-li!ear termsN!-li!ear terms im$rta!t i! s%all= =aterim$rta!t i! s%all= =ater

    Numerical m#elli! tec%!i@ueNumerical m#elli! tec%!i@ueFi!ite Di""ere!ceFi!ite Di""ere!ce ((recta!ular ri#)recta!ular ri#)

    Gri# #e!sit i!creases =it% #ecreasi! =ater #e$t%Gri# #e!sit i!creases =it% #ecreasi! =ater #e$t%

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    24/51

    24

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    1#elli!1#elli!

    t%ec%!i@ue5t%ec%!i@ue5

    Fi!ite Di""ere!ceFi!ite Di""ere!ce

    1#elli!1#elli!

    Neste# carse t "i!eNeste# carse t "i!e

    recta!ular ri#s "recta!ular ri#s "

    #i""ere!ts resluti!#i""ere!ts resluti!GRID B 833x833m

    GRID C 28x28m

    GRID A 24!8x24!8m "#artial $ie%&

    GRID D

    !3x!3m

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    25/51

    25

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    Recta!ularRecta!ular

    ri# A " +&ri# A " +&

    resluti!resluti!

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    26/51

    26

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5

    HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    27/51

    27

    &umeri$al ModellingResults

    N

    3INTERO ?AY- GRID 0&

    (T%e scale is #e"rme#)

    3INTERO ?AY- GRID 0&

    TRIDI1ENSIONAL VIE'

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    28/51

    28

    &umeri$al ModellingResults

    PARA1ETER

    ESTI1ATION

    Sut%-=ester! cr!er " t%e

    ru$ture 9!e

    08S

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    29/51

    29

    &umeri$al ModellingResults

    Distri*uti! " u$li"t a!# su*si#e!ce i! t%e surceDistri*uti! " u$li"t a!# su*si#e!ce i! t%e surce

    rei! (ri# +&), +

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    30/51

    30

    &umeri$al ModellingResults

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    31/51

    31

    &umeri$al ModellingResults

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    32/51

    32

    &umeri$al ModellingResults

    0D Numerical Simulati! i! ui!ter *a: C%ile0D Numerical Simulati! i! ui!ter *a: C%ile

    http://var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_2/C:%5CMATLAB6p5%5Cbin%5Cwin32%5Cmatlab.exe
  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    33/51

    33

    &umeri$al ModellingResults

    T "acilitate t%e $r#ucti! " t%e tsu!amiT "acilitate t%e $r#ucti! " t%e tsu!ami

    "l#i! c%art: a smt% li!e is i!ter$late#"l#i! c%art: a smt% li!e is i!ter$late#

    *et=ee! ri# results accr#i! t t%e small*et=ee! ri# results accr#i! t t%e small

    scale t$ra$%ic "eatures !t #escri*e# i! t%escale t$ra$%ic "eatures !t #escri*e# i! t%e

    0 7 0 m ri#,0 7 0 m ri#,

    ui!ter *aui!ter *a ui!ter *aui!ter *a

    Ve!ta!asVe!ta!as Ve!ta!asVe!ta!as

    Pe!Q!sulaPe!Q!sula

    Ls 1llesLs 1llesPe!Q!sulaPe!Q!sula

    Ls 1llesLs 1lles

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    34/51

    34

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts58,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts5

    HHa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    35/51

    35

    .Antofagasta

    Puerto Montt.

    .Arica

    Talcahuano.

    Valparaso.

    Coquimbo.

    CITS3 Pr4ectCITS3 Pr4ect

    Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! 1a$s 5 A $la!!i! tlTsu!ami I!u!#ati! 1a$s 5 A $la!!i! tl

    Arica

    I@ui@ue

    Tc$illa - 1e4ill!es

    A!t"aasta

    Taltal

    C%aaral Cal#era - Huasc

    La Sere!a C@uim*

    Ls Vils - Pa$u#

    ui!ter - Via #el 1ar Val$araQs

    Alarr* - Sa! A!t!i

    C!stituci! - Pe!c - Tm

    Lir@u! - Talca%ua!

    Sa! Vice!te Cr!el - Le*u

    Crral

    A!cu#

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    36/51

    36

    Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts

    (1ai! $rts al! t%e C%ilea! cast)

    Estimate# Tsu!ami I!u!#ati!Estimate# Tsu!ami I!u!#ati!

    at I@ui@ue: C%ile: *ase# !at I@ui@ue: C%ile: *ase# !

    !umerical m#el results,!umerical m#el results,

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    37/51

    37

    Sa! A!t!iSa! A!t!i

    Har*urHar*ur

    http://../Presentacion%20San%20Antonio/CITSU_San%20Antonio.PDF
  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    38/51

    38

    Gra$%ic a!# P%tra$%ic Re$rtsGra$%ic a!# P%tra$%ic Re$rts

    Fl#i! AreasFl#i! Areas

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    39/51

    39

    De;el$me!t " %a9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!:De;el$me!t " %a9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!:

    $re$are#!ess a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile$re$are#!ess a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

    3si! CITS3 $r4ect ma$s Arica: A!t"aasta:3si! CITS3 $r4ect ma$s Arica: A!t"aasta:

    Via #el 1ar Emere!c O""ices %a;e #esi!e# aVia #el 1ar Emere!c O""ices %a;e #esi!e# a

    Ha9ar# a!# Resurces 1a$ "r eac% tsu!ami ris.Ha9ar# a!# Resurces 1a$ "r eac% tsu!ami ris.

    9!e9!e,, Tsu!ami Emere!c a!# E;acuati! Pla!s $re$areTsu!ami Emere!c a!# E;acuati! Pla!s $re$are

    a!# e#ucate t%e $$ulati!a!# e#ucate t%e $$ulati! "r alert: cr#i!ate:"r alert: cr#i!ate:

    e;aluate: resl;e a!# ta.e $la!s #ecisi! i!terate# te;aluate: resl;e a!# ta.e $la!s #ecisi! i!terate# t

    ;er!me!t a!# lcal emere!c ae!cies acti!s: s;er!me!t a!# lcal emere!c ae!cies acti!s: s

    t%at t%e $$ulati! .!=s =%at t # accr#i! t t%et%at t%e $$ulati! .!=s =%at t # accr#i! t t%earea it li;es,area it li;es,

    Arica a!# A!t"aasta %a;e im$leme!te# a sstemArica a!# A!t"aasta %a;e im$leme!te# a sstem

    " alarm " Tsu!ami =it% sire!s " earl alert," alarm " Tsu!ami =it% sire!s " earl alert,

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    40/51

    40

    Tsu!ami si!als i!

    t%e Via #el 1ar cit

    Tsu!ami si!als i!

    t%e Via #el 1ar cit

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    41/51

    41

    Tsu!ami si!als i!

    Arica cit

    Tsu!ami si!als i!

    Arica cit

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    42/51

    42Tsu!ami sire!s lcate# i! A!t"aasta a!# Arica $rtsTsu!ami sire!s lcate# i! A!t"aasta a!# Arica $rts

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    43/51

    43

    Ta*le " c!te!ts

    +,- I!tr#ucti!,+,- I!tr#ucti!, - C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!- C!ce$tual Remar.s a!# Tsu!ami Ge!erati!

    - Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile- Histrical Tsu!amis i! C%ile

    /,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!/,- Tsu!ami Pr$aati!

    0,- Numerical 1#elli!0,- Numerical 1#elli!

    2,- CITS3 Pr4ect52,- CITS3 Pr4ect5

    Numerical Simulati! " Tsu!amisNumerical Simulati! " Tsu!amis

    6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les6,- Numerical 1#elli! Results5 E7am$les8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts8,- Tsu!ami I!u!#ati! C%arts

    - H- Ha9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!essa9ar# mitiati!: $re;e!ti!: $re$are#!ess

    a!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ilea!# res$!se $la!s i! C%ile

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    44/51

    44

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    45/51

    45

    Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s

    'it%i! t%e $erati;e c!te7t:'it%i! t%e $erati;e c!te7t: NT'S #!BtNT'S #!Bt

    %a;e t%e tec%!ical $era*ilit et t estimate%a;e t%e tec%!ical $era*ilit et t estimate

    i! real time t%e $te!tial im$act " tsu!amii! real time t%e $te!tial im$act " tsu!ami

    =a;es arri;i! t t%e c%ilea! cast,=a;es arri;i! t t%e c%ilea! cast, Desi! a!# im$leme!t a !umerical m#el "rDesi! a!# im$leme!t a !umerical m#el "r

    t%e "recast " ru!-u$s " !ear a!# "ar "iel#t%e "recast " ru!-u$s " !ear a!# "ar "iel#

    e;e!tse;e!ts: i! r#er t estimate t%e $te!tial: i! r#er t estimate t%e $te!tial

    im$act " tsu!amis ! t%e c%ilea! cast:im$act " tsu!amis ! t%e c%ilea! cast:*ase# ! real time #ata " sea le;el *tai!e#*ase# ! real time #ata " sea le;el *tai!e#

    "rm stati!s lcate# clse t t%e surce a!#"rm stati!s lcate# clse t t%e surce a!#

    "rm DART *us,"rm DART *us,

    Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    46/51

    46C'm#'nent( ') *(+nami ,'reca(tC'm#'nent( ') *(+nami ,'reca(t

    Pre-computed Forecast

    Database of Linear

    Propagation Solutions

    initial seismic data

    tsunameter data

    Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    47/51

    47

    Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s

    De;el$ " i!u!#ati! ma$s "r t%ers castal citiesDe;el$ " i!u!#ati! ma$s "r t%ers castal cities" C%ile (CITS3 II $r4ect)" C%ile (CITS3 II $r4ect)

    I!clu#e "ar "iel# simulati! a!# =a;e $r$aati! "I!clu#e "ar "iel# simulati! a!# =a;e $r$aati! "tsu!ami eart%@ua.es t=ar# i!sular areas " C%iletsu!ami eart%@ua.es t=ar# i!sular areas " C%ile

    Im$r;e t%e m#elli! tec%!i@ue: t%ru% P%ase IIIm$r;e t%e m#elli! tec%!i@ue: t%ru% P%ase II" TI1E $r4ect 5" TI1E $r4ect 5

    3si! *etter resluti! =it% "3si! *etter resluti! =it% "i!ite eleme!tsi!ite eleme!ts

    Sta*ilit " !umerical cm$utati! "r e7tremeSta*ilit " !umerical cm$utati! "r e7tremeseismic $arameters a!# *r#er c!#iti!s i! t%eseismic $arameters a!# *r#er c!#iti!s i! t%eri#s *u!#arri#s *u!#ar

    Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    48/51

    48

    Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s

    D/*1

    8000

    6000

    5000

    4000

    3000

    2000

    -500

    -000

    50

    500

    250

    -00

    50

    0

    Fi!iteFi!ite

    eleme!teleme!tm#elli!m#elli!

    ri#ri#

    2aria3le (i4e trian5+lar 5ri6(72aria3le (i4e trian5+lar 5ri6(7

    (i4e $arie( %ith 6e#th an6(i4e $arie( %ith 6e#th an6(tr'n5 6e#th c'ntra(t((tr'n5 6e#th c'ntra(t(

    Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    49/51

    49

    Future Pla!sFuture Pla!s

    Tsu!amis "ar "iel# simulati!Tsu!amis "ar "iel# simulati!

    -00AD Ca(ca6ia earth8+a9e "#r'3a3le ma5nit+6e :!& *ran(.aci)ic t(+nami #r'#a5ati'n ; Sata9e et al-00AD Ca(ca6ia earth8+a9e "#r'3a3le ma5nit+6e :!& *ran(.aci)ic t(+nami #r'#a5ati'n ; Sata9e et al

    Rece!t Tsu!amisRece!t Tsu!amis

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    50/51

    50

    Jan 1, 1996

    Wave height: 3.4 mVictims: 9

    Sulawesi Is.Nov 14, 1994

    Wave height: 7 mVictims: 49

    Mindoro Is.Jul 12, 1993

    Wave height: 31 mVictims: 239

    Okushiri !a"an

    Feb 17, 1996

    Wave height : 7.7 mVictims: 161

    Irian !a#a Jul 17, 199Wave height : 1! mVictims: "22##

    $a"ua %ew &uinea

    Nov 26, 1999Jan 3, 2##2

    Wave height: 3 m

    Without victims

    'anua(u Is.

    $ct 9, 199!

    Wave height: 11 mVictims: 1

    !alis)o Me*i)o

    %e& 2, 1992Wave height : 1# m

    Victims: 17#

    %i)ara+ua

    Feb 21, 1996

    Wave height: ! mVictims: 12

    %or(hern $eru

    Jun 23, 2##1

    Wave height: 2 mVictims: !#

    Sou(hern $eru

    'ec 12, 1992

    Wave height: 26 mVictims: "1###

    ,lores Is.

    Jun 2, 1994

    Wave height: 14 m

    Victims: 23

    !a-a

    'ec 26, 2##4

    Wave height: 1# mVictims: 36#.###(

    Sua(ra

    Rece!t Tsu!amisRece!t Tsu!amis

    '%e! =ill t%e !e7t Tsu!ami'%e! =ill t%e !e7t Tsu!ami

    Eart%@ua.es %a$$e! i! C%ileUEart%@ua.es %a$$e! i! C%ileU

  • 7/24/2019 Tsunami Workshop

    51/51

    /ID/ . S1=W/ID/ . S1=W

    Tsunami HazardTsunami Hazard

    Mitigation and RiskMitigation and Risk

    Assessment WorkshopAssessment Workshop

    Santiago, ChileSantiago, Chile

    29 - 3 Septem!er 2"29 - 3 Septem!er 2"