Tsunami Early Warning Systems

Dimitra Fotopoulou, Max Marcheselli, Taeyun Eom & Rui Zeng

Outline1. Introduction, history and general information about

Tsunami Warning Systems

2. DART II and GITEWS Project

3. Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System

4. Japan and USA Tsunami Early Warning System

Tsunami : “a series of waves, generated by underwater earthquakes, landslides, volcanic

eruptions and asteroid impacts, which violently flood coastlines with devastating impact to coastal

communities.” (Titov & Bernard, 2015)

Local:Coastal residents feel the

earthquake and have only minutes before the tsunami strikes.

Distant:Coastal residents do not feel the earthquake and have an hour or

more before tsunami strikes.

Early warning : “the provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that

allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective

response.” (ISDR, 2004)

http://gizmodo.com/5781161/giz-explains-how-earthquake-and-tsunami-warning-systems-work?trending_test_two_f&utm_expid=66866090-68.hhyw_lmCRuCTCg0I2RHHtw.5&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F

Tsunami Warning Organisations - Centres

IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic

Commission), 1960

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration), 1970

WC/ATWC (West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centre), 1967

PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre), 1965

INCOIS (Indian National Centre for Ocean

Information Services), 1999

NEAMTIC (North-Eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean

and connected seas Tsunami Information

Centre), 2007

CTIC (Caribbean Tsunami Information Centre), 2013

CTICCaribbean TsunamiInformation Centre

Regional Tsunami Service Providers (RTSP) are operating and caring out under IOC – INCOIS and have issued regional tsunami bulletins for the Indian Ocean since 2008.

Developed in response to major tsunamis in 1946 Aleutian Islands- Hawaii and in 1960 Chile

Pacific: earthquake

-centric (before 2004) Evolved in response to

2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

Global: tsunami-centric (after 2004)

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/violent-hawaii-deadly-tsunamis/1862/ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1280494/The-wall-water-waist-high-rising-Then-second-wave-hit--Carol-McGiffin-survived-2004-tsunami.html

Tsunami Warning System History

Tsunami Warning System History

Japan – USAThe first early warning system: “if the ground

shakes violently, evacuate”.

The first instrumental warning system was with the use of seismometers.

Warnings were transmitted through radio

stations and telephone calls within 20mins of the

earthquake.

Pacific: earthquake

-centric (before 2004)

deep

http://www.642weather.com/weather/tsunami.php

http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/an-american-warning

Tsunami Warning System (TWS)

TWS - used to detect tsunamis in advance and issue warnings to prevent loss of life and damage.

Consists of two equally important components:

A communication infrastructure that can issue

timely alerts to the affected

areas

A network of sensors to detect tsunamis

http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/images/warning-system-smaller.jpg

Tsunami Warning System Flowchart

Tsunami Alerts

https://www.flickr.com/photos/acastro/5517153140

Tsunami Warning (highest level), are issued when there is an imminent

threat of a tsunami.

Evacuation!

Tsunami Watch (second level), are issued based on seismic information without confirmation that a destructive

tsunami is underway.

Tsunami Advisory (third level), are issued to coastal areas not currently in either warning or watch status when a tsunami warning has been issued for

another region of the same ocean.

DART II (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis)

o Developed by NOAAo 6 were operational in 2001 off the

North West coast of the US.o First generation DART buoys only had

one way communication – they could only send data.

o Second generation (DART II) was developed in 2005 and allowed two way communication.

Source: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart/dart.shtml

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart/dart.shtml

How do they work?o Made up of two essential

components: the Bottom Pressure Recorder (BPR) and the Surface Buoy.

o Pressure and temperature data is collected via the BPR every 15 seconds.

o Pressure data is converted to wave height.

o Two modes: Standard and Event

Source: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart/dart.shtml

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart/dart.shtml

Advantages:o Can serve as both local and distant warning systems.o They are portable so locations can be easily changed.

o Sensors are all standardised and can share data to all countries in real-time.o Relatively low initial investment (DART buoys cost around $500,000 USD).

o One failure will not affect the other DART buoys.Limitations:

o They frequently break.o High cost to send an emergency repair team.

Bernard & Titov, 2015

Advantages & Limitations

GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System)

o Indonesia has a unique geological situation due to it’s position by the Java Trench.

o If a tsunami originates here, in extreme events, it will make landfall within 20 minutes.

o It needs a system that can detect and send warnings within 5 minutes of an earthquake.

o GITEWS was developed to meet this criteria.

Lauterjung, Münch & Rudloff, 2010

How does it work?

o There are 3 groups of GPS locations.

o GPS real-time reference stations (green triangles)

o GPS at tide gauges (yellow squares)

o GPS on offshore buoys (red circles)o All this data is continually collected

and evaluated in real time. When combined with seismic data it can provide an accurate predication for an imminent tsunami.

Falck, et al., 2010

Decision Support System

The following steps are taken after an earthquake:

1. Use the seismic data to identify the strength and location of an earthquake.

2. Sub-oceanic earthquakes that cause vertical land movement are most likely to cause tsunami. Using the GPS data from a fixed land point can determine if sea floor has risen.

3. GPS taken from the offshore buoys and tidal gauges can determine whether a tsunami is inbound due to increases in sea level.

4. A decision is made, within 5 minutes, whether or not a tsunami alert is necessary.

Reidlinger et al., 2009

Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

1.Location of Indonesia2.Inauguration of InaTEWS3.Structure of InaTEWS4.Preparedness5.In reality and challenges

• Indonesia is in a junction of the Eurasia and Indian-Australian plates.• Crustal deformations occur along the plate boundaries that manifested by earthquakes, volcanoes and vertical movements phenomena Tectonics Observatory (California Institute of Technology)

1.Why did it happen in Indonesia?

• Indonesia is in a junction of the Eurasia and Indian-Australian plates.• Crustal deformations occur along the plate boundaries that manifested by earthquakes, volcanoes and vertical movements phenomena.

1.Why did it happen in Indonesia?

Tectonics Observatory (California Institute of Technology)

Basically there was NO WARNING!!!Before the December 2004 event, the Indian Ocean region had no tsunami-warning system or a disaster management plan.

Photos: Wikipedia (2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami)

1.Why did it happen in Indonesia?

2. Inauguration of InaTEWS

• Therefore to reduce casualties, Indonesia started to develop a Tsunami Early Warning System.• From 2005 With 5 Countries and 2 UN organizations

• Especially Germany (539 Germans died in Indonesia) supported a lot under the name of GITEWS from 2005.

The Indonesian Service for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics BMKG

• When the 1st Version of GI-TEWS was finished, InaTEWS was launched on 11th November 2008.

• After testing, upgrading and training, Germany handed over all responsibility to Indonesia in March 2011.

2. Inauguration of InaTEWS

• Since 1984, far before launching of InaTEWS, Indonesia had analogue Tide Gages and Seismic Sensors, but the purpose was surveying and mapping for coastal management.They changed to real time digital equipments.

Indonesia Sea Level Monitoring, Khafid, 2012

• When the worker in charge clicks the green button, all tsunami and earthquake information is dispersed by several means. Thanks to this design, they can save time for warning and re-duce mistakes.

3.Structure of InaTEWS : After Data AnalysisWhen the analysis process is done, they have take practical actions which are the most important things in this system.

Action 1. Tsunami is coming, Don’t panic and click the “Dissemination” button.

From SEISCOMP3

From DSS

User-centered Interface Design Of InaTEWS Springfield NPP Interface

3.Structure of InaTEWS : Dissemination

• Tsunami warning issued by BMKG and sent out to televisions, radios, and media online to be broadcasted.

Warning Tsunami in BENGKULU,LAMPUNG,NAD,SUMBAR, SUMUT, EQ Mag:8.9, 11-Apr-12 08:38:29 UTC, Loc:2.31N,92.67E,Dep:10Km::BMKG

BMKG

Media Text messagesFax, e-mails

RTSP (Regional Tsunami Advisory Service Provider) Since 2011, Indonesia(BMKG), India(INCOIS), AND Australia(BOM) responsible for providing tsunami early warnings to Indian Ocean coun-tries. BMKG(Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika)

3.Structure of InaTEWS : DisseminationAction 2. Siren

Currently, 31 sirens have been installed throughout the coastal area of Indonesia.

BMKG(Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika)

January 16th 2005

3.Structure of InaTEWS : Siren

Photos: MailOnline, Ten years on, stunning pictures show how they rebuilt Indonesia from the mud of the Tsunami, 9 Dec 2014

The Lampuuk coastal district of Banda Aceh

December 2014

Central Banda Aceh: debris which had been carried into the city by the massive wave.

3.Structure of InaTEWS : Siren

November 2014January 8th 2005

Bill McGuire, a hazard researcher at UCL:"But that [alone] wouldn't help," he says. "You need a set of protocols about how to warn people……. That's more critical than the science.” Nature news Published online 29 December 2004

4.Preparedness

• 8 stages for tsunami awareness-raising and community preparedness:

1. Training officials/officers in the local government2. Training community representatives3. Preparation module for public education4. Preparation of maps and evacuation paths5. Preparation and installation of signs - tsunami evacuation signs6. Simulation of a tsunami early warning system and evacuation process (Tsunami Drill)7. Public awareness through electronic and print media8. Exercise - exercise for school children

4.Preparedness : Educating & Training

Tsunami Warning and Preparedness in Indonesia after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, LIPI (The Indonesian Institute of Sciences)

4.Preparedness : Installation of Evacuation Buildings, Routes and Signs

Photos: A Decade After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2015

4.Preparedness : Exercise & Drill

Photos: CBCNews, Tsunami drill held around Indian Ocean 2009

InaTEWS conducts a tsunami drill every 26th December.

5. In reality and challenges : Limited siren coverage

Siren coverage 130dB = 960m coverage radius

Guideline for Tsunami Risk Assessment in Indonesia

Indonesia – 54,716 km (33,998 miles) has the second longest coastline in the world.

It is necessary to diversify warning devices: Mosque loudspeaker or visual warning (e.g. rescue flare)

5. In reality and challenges : Traffic JamA Mw 8.6 earthquake occurred off northern Sumatra on 11th April 2012. While this earthquake did not cause a large tsunami, the ground shook so strongly that people thought a tsunami was imminent. More than 100,000 people in Banda Aceh in Sumatra evacuated the area in a hurry.

However traffic was at a complete standstill as the provincial capital, Banda Aceh, emptied out. People were screaming and crying as they piled into cars and motorbikes to try to get to high ground. Many said that after two hours they had only moved 6 miles (10 km). Some finally gave up, abandoning their vehicles and walking.

Urgent Surveys for Evacuation and Measures from Unexpected Large Tsunami, the University of Tokyo, 2013

There is a need to build stronger and taller evacuation buildings, instead of expanding roads and adding new evacuation routes in high population density areas.

5. In reality and challenges : Slow progress in construction improvement

From 2005 to 2008, the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Executing Agency of Aceh oversaw the rebuilding of 140,000 houses. However, materials were in short supply after the earthquake/tsunami and the need to re-house so many people in such short time meant that quality control and code enforcement for newly constructed buildings were routinely overlooked. According to a survey conducted in 2006, the design of post-disaster houses was not much different from pre-disaster designs (Okazaki, 2015).

The district of Banda Aceh in Aceh province, located on Indonesia's Sumatra Island

December 1st 2014December 27th 2004

Tsunami Early Warning System in the United States

o The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) - 1949o The National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) - 1967o University Corporation and Education Supporto Cross-national Information Sharing

Drawbacks and Limitationso Strong budget on devices VS. limited input in study and researching

o DART cost $37 billion for improvement (2005-2007)o Detectors constructed in the Indonesian ocean cost $16.6

billion (2004-2006)o $ 1,000,000/yr for PTWC’s research and office operation

o Different conditions of partner countries o Strong warning system but weak human reactions

Most Advanced Technology in the World

Cooperation with NASA

More than 40 detectors

Covers the Pacific, Atlantic, and Caribbean Oceans

Dominey-Howes & Goff, 2010

Adaption to the Environment o Geological transformationo Social education

• disaster consciousness • self-protection• long term preparation

o Comprehensive management- react in 5 mins with a plano Technologies

• share information with PTWC• street broadcasting devices will not be affected by water• 261 earthquake detectors (until 2012)

Tsunami Early Warning System in Japan

Zare & Afrouz, 2011

• Bernard, E., & Titov, V. 2015. Evolution of Tsunami Warning Systems and Products. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 373.

• Dominey-Howes, D & Goff, J. 2010. Tsunami: Unexpected blow foils flawless warning system. Nature, 350, 32-37.

• Falck, C., Ramatschi, M., Subarya, C., Bartsch, M., Merx, A., Hoeberechts, J., & Schmidt, G. 2009. Near real-time GPS applications for tsunami early warning systems. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 181 – 189.

• Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission: Tsunami Programme. [Online] at: http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=12&Itemid=11&lang=en Accessed on 06 December 2015.

• Koike, N. 2009. Catching the Wave: Real-time tsunami warning systems. IEEE Potentials, 28, 12-15.

• Lauterjung, J., Münch, U., & Rudloff, A. 2010. The challenge of installing a tsunami early warning system in the vicinity of the Sunda Arc, Indonesia. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 641 – 646.

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Website 2015. [Online] at: www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart/dart.shtml Accessed 27 November 2015.

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Website. 2015. [Online] at: http://www.noaa.gov/factsheets/new%20version/tsunamis.pdf Accessed 05 December 2015.

• Riedlinger, T., Steinmetz, T., Raape, U., Tessman, S., Wnuk, M., Strobl, C., Mikusch, E. & Dech, S. 2009. The Decision Support System for improved Tsunami Early Warning in Indonesia: Approach and Implementation. 33rd International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE).

• Sunanda M.V., Srinivasa Kumar, B., Ajay Kumar, C., Patanjali Kumar, R.S., Mahendra, E., Uma Devi, M., Raghavendra, J., Padmanabham, N., & Kiran Kumar, S.A. 2011. Regional Tsunami Advisory Services Provider (RTSP) services of Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre. Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services.

• Synolakis, C. & Bernard, E. 2006. Tsunami science before and beyond Boxing Day 2004. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 364.

• UNESCO Report. 2014. Tsunami the Great Waves.

• UNESCO Website. 2015. [Online] at: http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/ioc-oceans/sections-and-programmes/tsunami/ Accessed 05 December 2015.

• Zare, M & Afrouz, S. 2011. Crisis Management Tohoku: Japan earthquake and tsunami. Iranian Journal of Public Health, 41, 12-20.