TSMO & Reliability
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Transcript of TSMO & Reliability
February 4, 2010
Transportation System Management and Operations & Travel Time Reliability
Presentation by Marais Lombard, PE
Introduction
• What is Transportation System Management and Operations (TSMO)?
• Why Travel Time Reliability?
• What is Changing the Transportation Landscape?
• How Should we Respond?
Background
• Federal & State Transportation Policy Background– Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act
(ISTEA, 1991)– Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-
21, 1998)– Safe, Accountable, Flexible and Efficient
Transportation Equity Act A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU, 2005):
• Paradigm ShiftHistorical (Capacity) Future (TSMO)
Increase CapacityReduce Travel Time
Manage DemandImprove Reliability
What is TSMO?
• Optimized Management and Operations– Supply management– Demand management
• Focus Areas:– multimodal traffic management – traveler information – traffic incident management – transportation demand management
• Projects are Typically– Multi-modal– Cross-jurisdictional– Technology rich (ITS)
What is Travel Time Reliability?
• Travel time reliability is related to the uncertainty in travel times
• It is defined as the variation in day-to-day travel time for the same trip by: – purpose– origin/destination – time of day – mode– route
• Large variability = unreliable
Why Does Reliability Matter?
Example Day-to-Day Variation in Travel Time
Key Reliability Measures
Measure Definition Value Provided to User
Planning Time 95th percentile travel timeThe total travel time a traveler should allow to arrive on-time 95% of the time
Planning Time Index
The ratio of the Planning Time to the Ideal or Free Flow Travel Time
How much larger the potential total travel time is than the ideal or free-flow travel time
Buffer Index (%)
The 95th percentile travel time minus the average travel time divided by the average travel time
The extra time a traveler should allow to arrive on-time for 95 percent of all trips
Graphical Illustration of Reliability Measures
Sources of Congestion
How can Reliability be Improved?
How can Reliability be Improved?
1. Incorporate TSMO into Agency Institutional Architecture
Agencies with more comprehensive strategy applications that are increasingly integrated, standardized, and comprehensive distinguished from agencies with less well-developed TSMO activities through four key institutional features
Four Key Elements of InstitutionalArchitecture:• Awareness• Structure • Funding Priority • Partnerships
Typical DOT
Planning Operations Design
TSMO
Maintenance TSMO
TSMO
Where does TSMO fit in?
How can Reliability be Improved?
2. Provide more accurate and accessible travel time information
Surveillance and detection Pre-trip information Real-time informationRoadside messages
Modified travel behavior: Departure time Mode choice Route choice
Improved network capacity utilization and reliability
How can Reliability be Improved?
3. Develop safer, more efficient, and more intelligent vehicles
Source: www.intellidriveusa.org
Vehicle Technologies:• Vehicle Infrastructure
Integration• Driver Assistance Products
How can Reliability be Improved?
4. Manage Incidents, Work Zones and Special Events
– Pre-event • construction phasing• evacuation planning• service patrols
– Post-event • incident detection• coordinated response• work zone management
– Monitor and evaluate • infrastructure to determine
vulnerability • work zone management
How can Reliability be Improved?
5. Implement strategies and techniques to improve roadway performance
Reduce and encourage alternative travel
Multimodal travel
Single occupant travel reduction
Low-cost changes to the physical roadway section
Geometric design treatments
Access management
Lane treatments
Strategies that influence and respond to demand
Signal timing/ITS
Traffic demand metering
Variable speed limits
Congestion pricing
A Day in the Life of Reliability 1
“K” Guy is:• Before Work• Traveling to Work• Going for Lunch• Traveling back
Home• Conducting other
BusinessHow we can help:– Arterial and Freeway Data Management
• Pre-trip information • Road weather information
– Transit Traveler Information– Travel Options
• Telecommuting• Ride-share
A Day in the Life of Reliability 2
“K” Guy is:• Before Work
• Traveling to Work• Going for Lunch• Traveling back Home• Conducting other
Business
How we can help:– Vehicle Technologies
• IntelliDrive• Advanced crash avoidance
– Integrated Transportation Operations• Adaptive Signal control• Transit signal priority• Variable speed limits
– Changeable Lane Assignments• Reversible lanes• Temporary shoulder use• Hard shoulder running
A Day in the Life of Reliability 3
“K” Guy is:• Before Work• Traveling to Work
• Going for Lunch• Traveling back Home• Conducting other
Business
How we can help:– Integrated Multimodal Corridors
• Multimodal traveler information• Transit signal priority
– Advanced Transportation Automation Systems– Parking Management
A Day in the Life of Reliability 4
“K” Guy is:• Before Work• Traveling to Work• Going for Lunch
• Traveling back Home
• Conducting other Business
How we can help:– Active Traffic Management– Freeway Systems
• Lane treatments• Ramp metering & closure• Electronic toll collection
– Incident Management• Automatic crash and incident detection, notification• On-scene incident management
– Work Zone Management– Vehicle Technologies
A Day in the Life of Reliability 5
“K” Guy is:• Before Work• Traveling to Work• Going for Lunch• Traveling back
Home
• Conducting other Business
How we can help:– Commercial Vehicle
Operations• Freight Shipper Congestion
Information• Weight in Motion Technologies
– Smart Freight• Unobtrusive inspection technologies• Load matching software• Parking availability & reservations
What is Changing the Transportation Landscape?
• Demographics, Land Use and Urbanization
• Environment and Climate Change
• Energy Costs and Availability
• Technological Innovation
• Freight
• Finance, Road Pricing and Privatization
Demographics, Land Use and Urbanization
• Aging Population (baby boom from 1946 – 1960)– Driving – slower reaction time / less capacity– Suburban seniors aging in place– Increasing capabilities of seniors – and thus more
elderly drivers– Increasing transit
usage
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0-4 5-19 20-44 45-64 65-84 85+
Source: US Census Bureau
Environment and Climate Change
• Increased recognition of & response to climate change– highway vehicles (passenger cars and trucks)
accounted for 79% of transportation CO2 emissions in 2006.
– reduce emissions from passenger cars and especially from diesel trucks and trains
• Adverse weather pose a significant threat to the nation’s roads
Source: Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2005 (April 2007) www.epa.gov
Energy Cost & Availability
• AEO2009 look beyond current economic and financial woes and focus on factors that drive U.S. energy markets – uncertain world oil prices – increasing use of renewable fuels– shift in the transportation fleet to more efficient
vehicles – improved efficiency in end-use
appliances – Hybrid vehicle sales
40 percent in 2030
Source: Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2009
Technology Innovation
• In-vehicle ITS– Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (Intellidrive)– Driver Assistance Products
• Communication expansion through widespread real-time traveler information
• Integrated transportation operations– Adaptive signal control– Incidents & special events management– Advanced Transportation Automation Systems– Next generation road weather info systems– Work zone management
• Various Freight Technologies
Freight
• AASHTO - 90% Increase in tons moved by 2035• Continued shift to just-in-time delivery systems
– More vehicles hauling smaller truck loads
• Countervailing trend towards larger trucks– Offer increased revenue per ton mile
• Freight and passenger traffic continue to share same network for most part – Future increase in passenger congestion will adversely
affect the freight traffic and vice-versa.
Finance, Road Pricing and Congestion
• Existing tax-based financing structure will cause:
– Gap between funds and infrastructure investment needs
– Increasing congestion & unreliable travel during peak periods
– Pavement and structure deterioration throughout system
We are currently in a Downward Cycle
}Net Effect
Less local, regional, and economic competitiveness
Trip Decision Process: Today
User Focuses towards auto, which usually wins on time:– Demand focused on single
mode; speed across time & space is reactionary
– User believes he’s already paid for a service he isn't receiving
– No guidance on which investments will yield the greatest value
– Difficult to revealed modal preference
– Demand is not balanced with supply, resulting in unreliability
The Vision: An Upward Cycle
}Net Effect
Improved local, regional, and economic competitiveness
Trip Decision Process: Ideal
User chooses what is most cost-efficient based on travel needs:– Demand is spread by time,
mode, space– Price is tied to value received– System usage provides revenue
to support program, innovation– User choices gives insight on
market preferences– System reliability is enhanced
& maintained
How Should we Respond?
Recommended Agency Path
• Introduce culture of service, innovation, and partnerships
• Prioritize projects per performance measures• Integrate Agency Path
– Mode– Jurisdiction– Functional responsibilities– Data– Public/Private Partnerships
• Deploy Current & New Technologies• Integrate Technologies
• Fuel tax funding for fees-for-service funding
Integration
User
Options
Funding
How Should we Respond?
Role of the Private Sector
• Important now– Data collection– Data fusion– Information distribution
• Private role will grow– Technologies– Innovation– Capabilities– Options– Risk Taking
Today (2010)
Public Sector Responsibilities
Private Sector Responsibilities
Future (20+years)
Public Sector Responsibiliti
es
Private Sector Responsibilities
The Future Transportation System
Drivers without information on options & pricing
Drivers with information on options & pricing
Reliability Information — Value & Effect
Conclusion
Essential Keys to Future Success
• Demand is balanced with supply
• The system is fully integrated
• User options (mode, time, space) are maximized and accessible
• Fees-for-service is the foundation
It is not possible to predict the futureIt is possible to prepare for the future