Truck Market 2024 Sustainable Growth in Global Markets
Transcript of Truck Market 2024 Sustainable Growth in Global Markets
Truck Market 2024 Sustainable Growth in Global Markets
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Dear Reader,
Welcome to the Deloitte 2014 Truck Study.
Growth is back on the agenda. While the industry environment remains challenging, the key
question is how premium commercial vehicle OEMs can grow profitably and sustainably in a
global setting.
This year we present a truly international outlook, prepared by the Deloitte Global Commercial
Vehicle Team. After speaking with a selection of European OEM senior executives from
around the world, we prepared this innovative study. It combines industry and Deloitte expert
insight with a wide array of data. Our experts draw on first-hand knowledge of both country
and industry-specific challenges.
We hope you will find this report useful in developing your future business strategy. To the
many executives who took the time to respond to our survey, thank you for your time and
valuable input.
We look forward to continuing this important strategic conversation with you.
Christopher Nürk
Partner Automotive
Welcome to the Deloitte 2014 Truck Study
Editorial
Using this report
In each chapter you will find:
• A summary of the key messages and
insights of the chapter and an overview of
the survey responses regarding each topic
• Detailed materials supporting our findings
and explaining the impacts for the OEMs
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Christopher Nürk Michael A. Maier
Michael A. Maier
Director Strategy & Operations
From now to 2024, annual growth of > 3% is expected in the global truck market, mainly driven by global GDP
growth, estimated at 3.3% per year.
A closer look at growth by country reveals a wide range of growth rates. Brazil, China, and Japan show little mo-
mentum, growing at 1% per year. The U.S. also trails the global average at 2%. India is the most dynamic large
market with a staggering 9% CAGR. New growth markets appear in Eastern Europe (10%), Russia and Central
America (5% each) and in the ASEAN countries (4%).
The study will examine in detail how market contenders can stay on top of ever-intensifying competition in the
mature markets. Expanding into growth markets requires major decisions on the operating model and product
portfolio for each region. Triad premium OEMs especially must adjust their offering to local market require-
ments if they want to move out of their high-end niche.
In our opinion, two strategic options will determine market success in 2024:
1. Focus on the right growth markets and invest in those
2. New business models to open new revenue streams to OEMs
From a global perspective we want to show examples how this strategic options can be successfully fullfilled by
introducing the following topics by our global team:
• Aftermarket and, even more importantly, aftermarket pricing can increase an OEMs profitability in
mature markets with slower new vehicle sales.
• The telematics market will grow to a size of US$20B by 2024. How do OEMs need to be organize to claim
their piece of the pie?
• Staying focused on investing in the right markets is key. We provide insights on how to enter ASEAN
markets.
Yet, slow growth in key markets will increase competition while growth is shifting
to new geographies
The global truck market outlook is optimistic
1.
2.
Executive Summary
Market Outlook
3. Focus Top 10 OEMs
4. Competitive Landscape
5. Global Insights: North America, Increasing Profit in the Aftermarket
6. Global Insights: Western Europe, Growth through telematics
7. Global Insights: Japan, How OEMs will succeed in ASEAN
Table of Contents
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
But profitable and sustainable growth is contingent on adjusting the go-to-market approach,
product and service portfolio to local requirements
Winning in a global market is the key challenge for every truck OEM
Growth Market Strategy
Mat
ure
Mar
ket St
rate
gy
Mature Market StrategyNew business models to open new revenue streams to OEMs
Q: Within the following regions, for which segment do you expect the strongest increase in sales volume?
Growth Market StrategyStrengthening local presence in the “right markets”
• Brands• Products• Development & production • Sales & services
0
10%
20
30%
40
50%
60
70%
80
90%
100
Premium
Mid Market
Low Cost
ROW
Japan
Russia
Brasil
India
China
ASEAN
South/Central America
USA
Eastern Europe
EU 38%
25%
18%
78%
11%
10% 10% 10%
67%
70%
66%
10%
50%
38%
66% 12% 22%
24% 38%
40% 10%
20% 40% 30%
34%
22%
11% 11%
36% 46%
25% 50%
62%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Aftersales
Premium
Mid Market
Low Cost
ROW
Japan
Russia
Brasil
India
China
ASEAN
South/CentralAmerica
USA
Eastern Europe
EU 38%
25%
18%
78%
11%
10% 10% 10%
67%
70%
66%
10%
50%
38%
66% 12% 22%
24% 38%
40% 10%
20% 40% 30%
34%
22%
11% 11%
36% 46%
25% 50%
62%
Low Cost Mid Market Premium Aftersales
1
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Insights from OEMs
Global Insights North America: Increasing Profit in the Aftermarket
Global Insights Western Europe: Growth through Telematics
Global Insights Japan: How OEMs Will Succeed in ASEAN
Source: Deloitte Global Truck Study 2014, Reference page
The truck market is growing, but the pace is fairly slow
From 2004 to 2014, sales in the global truck market for MCV & HCV* grew at an average
annual rate of 2.7%, but growth was extremely volatile, ranging from -18% to 37%. HCVs
continue to be the dominant segment in the market, with a share of 63%. Between 2014
and 2024 the global truck market is expected to continue growing at a fairly low rate of
3.1% per year. The Indian market will be the main driver.
Growth is not global – it is regional
Growth rates vary widely around the globe. Growth is slowing down in large truck markets
such as China and most of the Triad countries. On the contrary, India, the ASEAN countries,
and Eastern Europe will account for most of the future growth. Central America is showing
dynamic growth as well. More than 70% of incremental sales in 2024 will be generated out-
side the Triad markets. But the solidity of the Triad markets will stabilize the total global truck
market in the decade to come.
Beyond BRIC
Much of the recovery of the truck industry after the financial crisis was due to the BRIC
markets and their growth opportunities. This is not the only truth anymore. While the BRIC
markets remain the largest truck markets, other regions have developed more growth mo-
mentum. It is essential for OEMs to focus on both, the largest markets and the new growth
regions.
Country growth rates vary widely – from a meager 1% for China and Brazil to
a staggering 9% for India and 7% for Eastern Europe
The global truck market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% to 2024
EU+4%
US+2%
China+1%
Brazil+1%
Japan+1%
67%
India +9%
Eastern Europe+7%
Russia+5%
Central America+4%
Asean+4%
44%
33%
0%
56%
11%
33%
0%
44%
0%
Q: In your opinion, how will your company‘s turnover develop in the following regions in the future? (% of respondents)
*Medium Commercial Vehicle, Heavy Commercial Vehicle, Reference page
Market growth (units, CAGR 2024e in %), source IHS Global
Expected market growth by OEMs.
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© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Source: Deloitte Global Truck Study 2014
Insights from OEMs
• The annual growth rate for the global truck market is projected to be
3.1% for MCV and HCV sales from 2014 to 2024
• Average annual growth from 2004 to 2014 was 2.7%
• Anticipated growth rates for MCVs and HCVs are very similar, with HCVs
remaining the dominant segment in the market with a 63% share
• 1 million additional vehicles are expected to be sold to 2024
After a volatile period from 2004 to 2013, growth in the global MCV and HCV markets is expected to stabilize between 2014 and 2024
Market Outlook Outlook by Region Outlook by Country Country Deep Dives
Development of global MCV and HCV sales until 2024
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
k units
Development of global MCV and HCV sales until 2024
k units
MCV
HCV
2024e2014e
36%
37%
63%
64%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2024e2023e
2022e2021e
2020e2019e
2018e2017e
2016e2015e
2014e2013
20122011
20102009
20082007
20062005
2004
CAGR 3.1%
Development of global MCV and HCV sales until 2024
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
k units
Development of global MCV and HCV sales until 2024
k units
MCV
HCV
2024e2014e
36%
37%
63%
64%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2024e2023e
2022e2021e
2020e2019e
2018e2017e
2016e2015e
2014e2013
20122011
20102009
20082007
20062005
2004
CAGR 3.1%
HCV MCV
Development of Global MCV and HCV Sales to 2024e
From 2.7 M
trucks in 2014 to 3.7 Min 2024
Source: Oxford Economics, IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Outlook
Growth is not global but regional, with India contributing the largest share – 377.000 additional units sold in 2024
Outlook by Region Outlook by Country Country Deep Dives
2014e
377.400
469.0002024e
2014e
297.000
461.0002024e
2014e
48.100
97.7002024e
2014e
237.300
544.4002024e 2014e
168.100
242.9002024e
2014e
116.00
195.0002024e
2014e
985.00
1.090.0002024e
2014e
77.100
84.5002024e
2014e
65.500
103.6002024e
2014e
43.000
51.1002024e
2014e
164.700
181.7002024e
+1%
Japan
+1%
China
+2%
U.S.
+2%
ASEAN
+4%
EU
+4%
Russia
+5%
+9%
+5%
South America
Central America
India
Eastern Europa
+10%
+1%Brazil
Development of Truck Sales to 2024e by Region
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis, Not allocated countries “Rest of World” not included, Reference page
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Outlook
The Triad and BRIC markets will remain the biggest truck markets in 2024, despite suffering from slower than average growth in most cases
Outlook by Region Outlook by Country Country Deep Dives
Expected Volume of Truck Sales in 2024e by Country
2024e Sales by Country 2024e Growth by Country Additional Sales in 2024e
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
1.100.000
Chi
na
Indi
a
USA
Russ
ia
Braz
il
Indo
nesi
a
Ger
man
y
Japa
n
Fran
ce
Mex
ico
Can
ada
UK
Turk
ey
Spai
n
Sout
h Ko
rea
Vie
tnam
Italy
Sout
h A
fric
a
Thai
land
Arg
entin
a
Peru
Saud
i A
rabi
a
Col
ombi
a
Pola
nd
Aus
tral
ia
Chi
le
Ukr
aine
2014 Rank
Market Size:• The BRIC markets will remain the world’s largest
truck markets
• India will supersede the U.S. as the world’s second
largest market
• Struggling European countries such as Spain and
Italy are expected to have recovered by 2024
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis, Not allocated countries “ROW” not included, Reference page
New markets
Triad markets
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Outlook
While many small markets will achieve high growth rates, most of the above-average growth will come from India, Russia, and Germany
Outlook by Region Outlook by Country Country Deep Dives
Expected Market Growth in 2024e by Country
2024e Sales by Country 2024e Growth by Country Additional Sales in 2024e
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
• The European Truck OEMs expect a growing mid-
market segment in China which compensates for a
slow market growth overall in China
• The economic recovery will allow some EU econo-
mies to move from sluggish growth to above-aver-
age growth rates
• Central and South America show momentum, but
cannot compensate for Brazil’s slow growth pace
• Eastern Europe will be dynamic although the
Ukraine crisis may cast a pall0
0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 500.000 1.000.000
Average CAGR 2014 - 2024
Units sold
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Croatia
Slovenia
Costa Rica
GreeceIreland
Spain
TurkeyLatviaMalaysia
Estonia
Uruguy
Mexico
Pakistan
India
China
Russia
Brazil
Germany
UzbekistanBulgaria
Czech Republick
Italy1
1Portugal2Romania3Kasakhstan
2 3
Growth in %
BRIC EU ROW East Europe Asean South / Central America
Market Growth:
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Outlook
70% of incremental truck sales in 2024e will be outside the Triad markets
Expected Volume of Incremental Unit Sales in 2024e by RegionOutlook by country - Additional sales in 2024
ROW
S/C America&Brazil
Asean&Japan
United States
China
East Europe
EU
India
39.126
307.138
164.014
55.133
128.585
105.080
91.610
82.199
Additional Unit Sales973.000
Outlook by Region Outlook by Country Country Deep Dives
2024e Sales by Country 2024e Growth by Country Additional Sales in 2024e
India
EU
East Europe& Russia
China
United States
ASEAN / Japan
Brazil / S/C America
ROW
Growth potential
differs in both traditional and
developing markets
Mature Markets
Emerging Markets
Germany
+4%
+5% +4%
+2%
+5% +1%
Russia Indonesia
U.S.
Turkey Brazil
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Daimler & Volkswagen are the dominant players in their home market and compete with a fragmented set of European and non-European players
Registered Commercial Vehicles* in Germany in 2013
Daimler
Volkswagen
Paccar
Fiat
Volvo
Local Brand Footprint
• The German truck market provides an example of a mature market dom-
inated by two major OEMs, Daimler with its brand Mercedes Benz Trucks
and Volkswagen owned MAN, that compete with a number of smaller
players and a highly fragmented set of others
• Daimler and Volkswagen benefit from a strong foothold in their home
market and a balanced portfolio of registered models
• Other European players such as Fiat and Volvo account for a considerable
number of registrations on the strength of their proximity to Germany
and EU free trade
Chart 2 (Stacked)
0
100
200
300
Production
Unit Sales
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e0
1
2
3
4
5
GDP Growth
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e
k %CAGR +4.0%
80
125
86
151
99
167
96
189
106
190
115
211
Market Outlook Outlook by Region Outlook by Country Country Deep Dives
Germany U.S. Russia Turkey Indonesia Brazil
Unit Sales Production GDP Growth*Including LCV and Buses
Source: IHS Group, Oxford Economics, Deloitte Analysis
Germany Manufacturer groupAchleitner
Aebi
Amur-ZAO Gr.
Aston Martin Finance Gr.
Barkas
Blue Bird
Blue River Group
Borgward
Boschung
Bucher
Caterpillar
China Automobile
China Hi-Tech Group Co.
CNH Global
Daimler AG
Eicher Motors
Fiat Group Automobiles SpA
Fiat Industrial Group
Ford Group
Geely Automobile Hld.
General Motors Group
HaKo Gr.
Hinduja Group
Honda
Hyundai Kia Automotive Group
IFA
Isdera
Isuzu
J ohn Deere
Kamaz
Komatsu
Krupp
Ladog
Liebherr
Lindner
Manitowoc
Mazda Motors Gr.
Mecalac
Mitsubishi Motor Group
Mowag
Muszertechnika Holding Zrt. Gr
Navistar International Corp.
Neuson Kramer
Otokar Gr.
Paccar Group
Pfau
Piaggio
PSA Group
Pucher Gr.
Reform
Renault Nissan Alliance
Robur
Russian Machines Gr.
Manufacturer und Model. Farbe zeigt Details zu Manufacturer group an. Größezeigt Summe von 2013-2 an. Die Markierungen werden nach Manufacturer und Model beschriftet. Die Daten werden unter Country gefiltert, wobei Germany beibe-halten wird. Die Ansicht wird unter Exclusions (Manufacturer,Manufacturergroup,Model) gefiltert, wobei 726 E lemente beibehalten wird.
MercedesM.B. Atego
MercedesMercedesSprinter/T1
MercedesM.B. LN2 Unspec.
IvecoIvecoEurocargo-Series
IvecoIveco Daily
Mercedes
MercedesM.B. Actros
MANMAN Unspec.
MANMAN TGS/TGX
MANMANTGL-Series
ScaniaScaniaR/P/T/G-SeriesUnspec.
MANMAN BusUnspec.
MANMAN
VW
VW
MAN
MANMAN L2000Series < 16t.
MANMAN TGA-Series
IvecoIveco
DAFDAFXF105-Series
DAFDAF85
DAF
DAFDAF45
MulticarMulticarUnspec.
IFAVolvo TrucksVolvo Trucks
Volvo Trucks
IvecoIvecoUnspec.
Expected German Sales and Production Units of HCV und MCV
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
A special design in the U.S. market for commercial vehicles strengthened domestic OEMs and caused foreign OEMs to penetrate via M&A
Registered Commercial Vehicles* in the Unites States 2013 Local Brand Footprint
• The current American truck market is characterized by a strong dominance
of domestic companies with a long history of vehicle production
• This dominance can be explained by the market needs for long-haul trans-
portation that strengthened domestic truck manufacturers
• Navistar accounts for the majority of registered vehicles in its home market,
leveraging its corporate history dating back to the early 1900s and joint
ventures
• While Daimler is a dominant foreign player in the United States, most of its
registered vehicles consist of former American Freightliner models
0
200
400
600
Production
Unit Sales
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e0
1
2
3
4
5
GDP Growth
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e
k CAGR +2.2%
377278
406343
422
322
444
358
451
377
469408
%
Country Deep Dives
Germany U.S.
Unit Sales Production GDP Growth*Including LCV and Buses
Source: IHS Group, Oxford Economics, Deloitte Analysis
USA
Manufacturer groupBlue Bird
Caterpillar
Crane Carrier
Daimler AG
DSU Trucks
Emergency One
Fiat Group Automobiles SpA
Fiat Industrial Group
Ford Group
Geely Automobile Hld.
General Motors Group
Gillig Corporation
Grand Vehicle Works Holdings
Hendrickson
Hyundai Kia Automotive Group
Isuzu
J ohn Deere
Kalmar
Kovatch Mobile Equipment
Marmon Herrington
Maxim Truck & Trailer
Mitsubishi Motor Group
Motor Coach Industries
Navistar International Corp.
Nissan Motor Corp.
Oshkosh Corporation
Paccar Group
Pierce Manufacturing
Spartan Motors
Terex
Toyota Group
Van Hool Group
Volkswagen Group
Volvo Truck Gr.
White Motor Company
Manufacturer, Model und Manufacturer group. Farbe zeigt Details zu Manufacturergroup an. Größe zeigt Summe von Yp: 2013/09 an. Die Markierungen werdennach Manufacturer, Model und Manufacturer group beschriftet. Die Daten werdenunter Country gefiltert, wobei USA beibehalten wird.
NavistarInternationalCorp.
Daimler AGFREIGHTLINER
Daimler AGFREIGHTLINERCONVENTIONAL
Daimler AGFREIGHTLINER CHASSIS
NavistarInternationalCorp.INTERNATIONAL
NavistarInternationalCorp.
GeneralMotorsGroup
Paccar GroupPETERBILT
Paccar GroupKENWORTH
IsuzuISUZUNPR
Fiat
Blue BirdBLUE BIRD
General MotorsGroupGMC
Volvo TruckGr.MACK 600
GeelyAutomobileHld.VOLVO
Daimler AGSTERLING
Ford GroupFORD
Ford GroupFORD F550
Ford GroupFORD ECONOLINE
Ford GroupFORD F
Ford GroupFORD
Ford Group
Ford GroupFORD F450
NavistarInternational
Expected U.S. Sales and Production Units of HCV und MCV
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Russia Turkey Indonesia Brazil
Market Outlook Outlook by Region Outlook by Country
Navistar
Ford
Daimler
Volvo
General Motors
Paccar
Local players dominate the Russian market where customs duties and tax-es have shut out large-scale foreign competition
Registered Commercial Vehicles* in Russia in 2013 Local Brand Footprint
• The Russian truck market is dominated by domestic players, with a limited pres-
ence of foreign truck manufacturers and few registrations of their products
• Whereas the dominant manufacturer, GAZ, boasts a wide range of models,
Kamaz’ portfolio is relatively limited
• Daimler owns a 10 percent stake in Kamaz
• European and Japanese OEMs such as Daimler, Volkswagen and Isuzu aim to
harness strong market growth by leveraging a diverse model portfolio.
VW has a small advantage in market presence due to their joint venture with
local MAZ
0
100
200
300
Production
Unit Sales
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e
k CAGR +5.3%
116
79
122 111
154131
167192 195
240
0
10
20
(20)
(10)
GDP Growth
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e
180 174
%
Country Deep Dives
U.S. Russia
Unit Sales Production GDP Growth*Including LCV and Buses
Source: IHS Group, Oxford Economics, Deloitte Analysis
Russia
Manufacturer groupAebi
Alvis Group
Amur-ZAO Gr.
Anhui Xinma Automobile Group L
AvtoVAZ
Ayats
BAZ
Beijing Auto / BAIC Motor Gr.
Belarussian Autoworks
Blue River Group
Bogdan Corporation
Cacciamali
Caterpillar
ChangAn Automobile
China Brilliance
China First Auto Works FAW
China Hi-Tech Group Co.
CNHTC/Sinotruk Gr.
Crane Carrier
Daimler AG
Dongfeng Motor Co. Ltd.
Fiat Group Automobiles SpA
Fiat Industrial Group
Ford Group
General Motors Group
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.
Gueleryuez
HaKo Gr.
Hinduja Group
Hyundai Kia Automotive Group
IFA
Ikarbus Gr.
Irizar Gr.
Isuzu
J AC Anhui J ianghuai Automobile
J ohn Deere
Kamaz
Kiraca Holding
KOC Holding
Komatsu
Liebherr
Lifan Gr.
Mahindra Group
Manitowoc
Marcopolo S .A.
MARZ
Mega-Motors (UA)
Mitsubishi Motor Group
Mudan
Muszertechnika Holding Zrt. Gr
Manufacturer und Model. Farbe zeigt Details zu Manufacturer group an. Größezeigt Summe von 2013-2 an. Die Markierungen werden nach Manufacturer und Model beschriftet. Die Daten werden unter Country gefiltert, wobei Russia beibe-halten wird. Die Ansicht wird unter Exclusions (Manufacturer,Manufacturergroup,Model) gefiltert, wobei 726 E lemente beibehalten wird.
GAZGAZ 53
GAZGAZ 3221 Gazelle
UralAZUralAZ Unspec.
PAZPAZ Bus Gr.
KAVZKAVZBus
LIAZLIAZ Bus
UralAZUralAZ Truck Gr.
ZilZil Truck
MAZMAZ Heavy Truck
MAZMAZunspec
MANMAN
MAN
ZilZil Unspec.
GAZGAZ 66
GAZGAZ3308
GAZGAZ Unspec.
GAZGAZ 3307
KamazKamaz Truck
KamazKamaz Truck
Volvo
Tatra
IsuzuIsuzu ElfUnspec.
HinoHino
DAFDAF
KrAZAvtokraz
NissanNissan Cabsta
Expected Russian Sales and Production Units of HCV und MCV
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Outlook Outlook by Region Outlook by Country
Germany Turkey Indonesia Brazil
GAZ
Kamaz
Volvo
Volkswagen
Turkey’s emerging truck market is characterized by a mix of global major Asian and European OEMs with a focus on light / medium-duty trucks
Registered Commercial Vehicles* in Turkey in 2013 Local Brand Footprint
• The Turkish truck market is diverse, illustrated by the wide variety of
registered truck brands and the international mix of manufacturers
• Turkey’s proximity to European markets has helped Daimler and other
European OEM build a strong presence with a focus on light- and
medium-duty trucks
• Daimler’s strong position in the market is based on a local production and
a good product portfolio in Turkey
• On the border with Asia, the Turkish market boasts a considerable presence
of Russian (Cukurova) and Japanese (Isuzu) truck makers
0
20
40
60
Production
Unit Sales
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e
k CAGR +5.0%
30 3036
43 39 43 3947
38
49
40
0
5
10
(10)
(5)
GDP Growth
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e
37
%
Country Deep Dives
Russia Turkey
Unit Sales Production GDP Growth*Including LCV and Buses
Source: IHS Group, Oxford Economics, Deloitte Analysis
Turkey
Manufacturer groupCiftciler (Askam) Gr.
Cukurova Holding
Daimler AG
Fiat Group Automobiles SpA
Fiat Industrial Group
Ford Group
General Motors Group
Hyundai Kia Automotive Group
Isuzu
Kiraca Holding
Mazda Motors Gr.
Navistar International Corp.
Otokar Gr.
PSA Group
Renault Nissan Alliance
Sabanci
Skoda Plzno Ltd.
Toyota Group
VDL Group
Volkswagen Group
Volvo Truck Gr.
Manufacturer und Model. Farbe zeigt Details zu Manufacturer group an. Größezeigt Summe von 2013-2 an. Die Markierungen werden nach Manufacturer und Model beschriftet. Die Daten werden unter Country gefiltert, wobei Turkey beibe-halten wird. Die Ansicht wird unter Exclusions (Manufacturer,Manufacturergroup,Model) gefiltert, wobei 726 E lemente beibehalten wird.
MercedesM.B. Unspec. (CV)
MercedesMercedes Sprinter/T1
FordFord Transit
RenaultTrucksRenault Tr.Premium
VolvoTrucksVolvo Trucks
IvecoIveco Unspec.
MANMAN Unspec.
VWVW Crafter
ScaniaScania Unspec.
IvecoIveco BusIsuzu
Isuzu Unspec.
IsuzuIsuzu Elf Unspec.
PeugeotPeugeotUnspec.
FiatFiat Unspec.
OtokarOtokarSultan
KarsanKarsanJ10
Karsan
Hino
BMCBMC Unspec.
MitsubishiFusoMitsubishiFusoCanterUnspec.
FordFord Unspec.
FordFord Cargo
Expected Turkish Sales and Production Units of HCV und MCV
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Outlook Outlook by Region Outlook by Country
U.S.Germany Indonesia Brazil
Ford
Daimler
Volkswagen
ÇukurovaFiat
Volvo
Isuzu
Japanese truck OEMs including Daimler’s Fuso Brand own the Indonesian market due to substantial investment and compliance with local specs
Registered Commercial Vehicles* in Indonesia in 2013 Local Brand Footprint
• The Indonesian truck market is still very much in a developing stage and char-
acterized by a strong dominance of Japanese truck manufacturers
• Daimler’s predominant position in the market is mostly due to its acquisition
of the Mitsubishi Fuso brand and the suitability of their Canter model for
Indonesian terrain
• Regional proximity and substantial foreign direct investment have bolstered
Toyota’s position, especially benefitting its Hino brand. ISUZU is also expand-
ing market share gradually due to their strength in the Medium CV area.
• Due to its size and proximity to China some Chinese manufactures are trying
to enter the market – but so far with only little quantities
0
50
100
150
Production
Unit Sales
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e0
5
10
15
20
GDP Growth
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e
k CAGR +3.0%
88 86100 101 103 106 112 118 118 117 112 126
2014e
%
Country Deep Dives
Turkey Indonesia
Unit Sales Production GDP Growth*Including LCV and Buses
Source: IHS Group, Oxford Economics, Deloitte Analysis
Indonesia
Manufacturer groupBeijing Auto / BAIC Motor Gr.
Daimler AG
Fiat Industrial Group
Ford Group
Hicom
Hyundai Kia Automotive Group
Isuzu
Renault Nissan Alliance
Shanghai Shenlong Bus Co. Ltd
Toyota Group
Unspec.
Volkswagen Group
Volvo Truck Gr.
Manufacturer und Model. Farbe zeigt Details zu Manufacturer group an. Größezeigt Summe von 2013-2 an. Die Markierungen werden nach Manufacturer und Model beschriftet. Die Daten werden unter Country gefiltert, wobei Indonesia bei-behalten wird. Die Ansicht wird unter Exclusions (Manufacturer,Manufacturergroup,Model) gefiltert, wobei 726 E lemente beibehalten wird.
Mitsubishi FusoMitsubishi Fuso Canter Unspec
Mitsubishi FusoMitsubishi Fuso Truck
IsuzuIsuzu Elf Unspec.
IsuzuIsuzuForwardUnspec.
UDTrucksUD
NissanIsuzu
Mitsubishi Fuso
ToyotaToyota Dyna/Toyoace Unspec.
HinoHino Dutro
HinoHino Unspec.
HinoHino Bus
HinoHinoRanger/500
Expected Indonesian Sales and Production Units of HCV und MCV
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Outlook Outlook by Region Outlook by Country
RussiaU.S.Germany Brazil
Isuzu
UD Trucks
Daimler
Toyota
Volkswagen and Daimler account for the largest share of vehicle registrations due to their long market presence
Registered Commercial Vehicles* in Brazil in 2013 Local Brand Footprint
• The Brazilian truck market is dominated by foreign, global OEMs with the
majority of trucks registered to Volkswagen and Daimler
• Scania and Volkswagen Nutzfahrzeuge are the main models sold in the
Brazilian market
• Having established a market presence as early as 1953 through the as-
sembly of VW Type 1, Volkswagen accounts for the largest share of new
registrations
• Daimler’s Vario and Atego models are the shining stars of a relatively bal-
anced portfolio of new registrations that bolster its strong position
0
100
200
300
Production
Unit Sales
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e0
1
2
3
4
5
GDP Growth
2024e2022e2020e2018e2016e2014e
k CAGR +1.0%
165196
179
220
165
216180
216
177
228
182
237
2014e
%
Country Deep Dives
Indonesia Brazil
Unit Sales Production GDP Growth*Including LCV and Buses
Source: IHS Group, Oxford Economics, Deloitte Analysis
Brazil
Manufacturer groupAgrale
C hangAn Automobile
C NHT C /S inotruk Gr.
Daimler AG
F iat Group Automobiles S pA
F iat Indus trial Group
F ord Group
General Motors Group
Hyundai K ia Automotive Group
Navis tar International C orp.
R enault Nis s an Alliance
Volkswagen Group
Volvo T ruck Gr.
Manufacturer und Model. F arbe zeigt Details zu Manufacturer group an. Größezeigt S umme von 2013-2 an. Die Markierungen werden nach Manufacturer und Model bes chriftet. Die Daten werden unter C ountry gefiltert, wobei B razil beibehal-ten wird. Die Ans icht wird unter E xclus ions (Manufacturer,Manufacturer group,Mo-del) gefiltert, wobei 726 E lemente beibehalten wird.
VW TruckVW Truck unspec.
VW TruckVW Truck Delivery
ScaniaScaniaSeries-4
FordFord Cargo
FordFord F-250/350
FordFord F-SeriesUnspec.
Volvo TrucksVolvo TrucksFH-Serie
IvecoIveco
IvecoIveco
Iveco FordIveco FordCargo
IvecoIveco
Volvo TrucksVolvo Trucks
AgraleAgraleUnspec.
GMC
FordFordF-SeriesSA Truck
ScaniaScania G-Series
Scania
ScaniaScania
ScaniaScania
VW TruckVW TruckWorker/Eletronico
VW TruckVW Truck
MercedesM.B. Vario/T2709-914-Series
MercedesM.B. MKGroup over16t
MercedesM.B. Axor
MercedesM.B. Accelo
MercedesM.B. SKGroup
MercedesM.B.
Expected Brazilian Sales and Production Units of HCV und MCV
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Outlook Outlook by Region Outlook by Country
TurkeyRussiaU.S.Germany
Fiat
Ford
Volvo
Daimler
Volkswagen
According to a recent market forecast, Daimler will manage to defend its No 1 spot
• Controlling almost a quarter of the global market, Daimler remains the Number 1 global
player and has penetrated all of the key markets with its own brands
• Tata is likely to profit from the growth of the Indian market, becoming the second largest
player globally in 2024. But its dependence on one market may turn out to be a major
disadvantage
• A similar challenge will cause Dongfeng to lose its Number 2 market position and to trail
Tata, VW and Volvo in a Chinese market showing little momentum
• Volvo will maintain its global reach through strategic investment in key markets such as
China (Dongfeng) and India (Eicher) along with a focus on selling premium trucks under
the Volvo brand
• VW will try to reap further benefits from closer cooperation and integration of MAN/Scania
into VW Group, potentially reinventing the game
Manufacturers outside Europe only play a dominant role in their local markets
• Even though Chinese OEMs are said to be aspiring to the status of serious competitors
only 3% of their total sales will be exported. These 3% are low in percentage, but based
on > 1.000.000 trucks manufactured by Chinese OEMs this still needs to be considered as
competition for regions like Asean or Africa
• Exports will remain low due to hard-to-surmount differences in specs and emission stand-
ards between the Triad markets and low-cost countries
• Chinese manufacturers are still partly state-owned and follow 3-5 year plans
• Similar trends will occur in India and North America, with North American OEMs focusing
on the South American market and staying out of Europe
The European OEMs are the only truly global players in the truck market, having
acquired share and operations in several key markets
* Analysis based on > 50% ownership. Daimler and Foton are treated as separate entities, Volvo and Dongfeng
are treated as separate entities
In the current truck landscape Daimler will likely defend its position as No 1 truck manufacturer*
Increasing presence of Chinese OEMs in the low-cost and mid-market segments outside China
Chinese OEMs will become serious competitors
The European and North American markets will still be dominated by local OEMs
Increasing global competition among Big-3 European OEMs (VW, Daimler, Volvo)
New players in ASEAN and Eastern countries
International consolidation
Q: In your opinion, how will the competi-tive landscape develop within the next ten years?
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Insights from OEMs
3
While Daimler will defend its position as No 1 truck manufacturer Tata seizes the growth in India to overtake Volvo, Dongfeng and Volkswagen
Global Market Share Export Capabilities Sales Split by OEM
OEM Regional Unit Market Shares in 2024e
4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 14% 8%
Europe Greater China Indian Subcontinent Japan/Korea Middle East/Africa
Oceania North America
South America
Central Europe ASEAN
Reg
ional
Mar
ket
Split
Global Market Share (Units)
(1) (2) (5) 2014 Rank (7) (3) (10) (9) (8) (4) (6)
Daimler Tata Volvo Volkswagen DFM Paccar FAW CNHTC BAIC Group International
ASEAN
Eastern Europe
Europe
Greater China
Indian Subcontinent
Japan/Korea
Middle/East Africa
North America
Oceania
South America
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
While OEMs headquartered in Europe show an international footprint Asian and U.S. OEMs tend to focus on their home markets
Global Market Share Export Capabilities Sales Split by OEM
OEM Global Sales Reach (Units 2024e)
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Daimler 2024 Snapshot: With a balanced mix of sales in Triad & growth markets, Daimler will benefit significantly from its global market presence
Global Market Share Sales Split by OEM
Daimler Unit Sales Volume in 2024e Daimler sales volume in 2024e
China
Russia + East Europa
South America
Central America
Japan
India
ROW
Brazil
Asean
EU
USA
2%
30%
19%
3%2%
14%
8%
8%
6%
6%
1%
525k units
Snapshot of Daimler’s Position
China: When Daimler established its first
truck joint venture in the Chinese mar-
ket, competitors such as MAN and Iveco
had already established a solid competi-
tive position. Daimler has not positioned
its own Asian brands in China so as to
achieve maximum unit sales
India: Daimler has introduced Bah-
rat-Benz as a new brand designed to
meet local requirements, opting for a
greenfield investment and brand build-
ing from scratch. This may prove to be
an advantage over other Triad OEMs
Russia: Its partnership with Kamaz
brightens Daimler’s outlook, especially if
Daimler acquires more shares of Kamaz
in the long term
USA
EU
Asean
Brazil
ROW
Russia + Eastern Europe
India
Japan
Central America
South America
ChinaSource: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Export Capabilities
Daimler VW Volvo Tata
VW 2024 Snapshot: Triad markets will continue to dominate VW sales, with most emerging market sales accounted for by Brazil & Russia
VW Unit Sales Volume in 2024e VW sales volume in 2024e
China
Central America
Asean
India
South America
ROW
Russia + East Europe
Brazil
EU
2%
47%
3%3%
27%
12%
5%
1%
269k units
Europe: Volkswagen’s largest markets are
the Triad markets, with a strong focus on
Europe – almost 50% of VW’s units will
be sold in Europe
Brazil: By 2024 Volkswagen will sell more
than one third of its production volume
in Brazil, mainly Volkswagen and MAN
trucks
North America: Volkswagen is currently
without a North American presence, miss-
ing out on leveraging the world’s third
largest market in 2024
India: After acquiring all MAN Force JV
shares, MAN aims to gain more traction in
the Indian market
EU
Brazil
Russia + Eastern Europe
ROW
South America
India
Asean
Central America
China
Sales Split by OEM
Daimler VW Volvo Tata
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
Snapshot of VW’s Position
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Global Market Share Export Capabilities
Volvo 2024 Snapshot: Volvo is a strong player in Europe and has been working on enlarging its footprint in the emerging markets
Volvo Unit Sales Volume in 2024e Volvo sales volume in 2024e
India
South America
Central America
China
Japan
Asean
Russia + East Europe
Brazil
ROW
USA
EU
5%
37%
8%
7%
16%
10%
9%
3%2% 2% 1%
266k units
Triad: The Triad will account for more
than half of Volvo’s sales, with Europe
(37%) topping the U.S. (16%) in terms of
share
Russia: Volvo is the only Triad truck OEM
that has established its own local plant in
Russia, assigning major strategic impor-
tance to the Russian market. All other
OEMs entered the market through joint
production with JV partners
China: This year, Volvo announced a JV
with Dongfeng, China’s largest truck man-
ufacturer. Currently, actual sales volumes
are low but it is to be expected that the JV
will leverage Dongfeng’s extensive dealer-
ship network
EU
USA
ROW
Brazil
Russia + Eastern Europe
Asean
Japan
China
Central America
South America
India
Sales Split by OEM
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
Snapshot of Volvo’s Position
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Daimler VW Volvo Tata
Global Market Share Export Capabilities
Tata 2024 Snapshot: Without a Triad presence, Tata will generate growth from its exceptionally large home market share and its ASEAN activities
Tata Unit Sales Volume in 2024e Tata sales volume in 2024e
Other
Asean
India
94%
4%2%
290k
India: No other OEM is as focused on its
home market as Tata, with India contrib-
uting 92% of its current unit sales. 2024
home market share is even expected to rise
to 94%
Triad: Tata is not present in the Triad
countries. Limiting its ability to participate
in technological advanced market
South Korea: Tata maintains a minimal
presence in the emerging markets, with
South Korea as the major exception. In
Korea, Tata sells the trucks of its local Dae-
woo subsidiary
India
Asean
Other
Sales Split by OEM
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
Snapshot of Tata’s Position
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Daimler VW Volvo Tata
Global Market Share Export Capabilities
Insights from OEMs
The global truck manufacturers landscape remains heterogeneous, despite the increase in acquisitions over the last years
0
10%
20
30%
40
50%
60
70%
80
90%
100
ROW
U.S.
Japan
Russia
Brazil
Europe
India
Asean
China
10%
10%
10%
20%
20%
20%
40%
40%
90%
Q: In your opinion, which of the following regions will face the strongest pressure for OEM consolidation in the future? (% of respondents)
Consolidation will strongly depend on the regional lay of the land
• European Endgame: After the most recent transaction in May 2014, when VW acquired
Scania, only Iveco is left as a potential target. Daimler and Volvo Renault are positioned well.
• U.S: Among European OEMs, Volkswagen has no presence or brand in the North Ameri-
can market yet.
• Vying for the Best Approach in BRIC: In recent years all of the OEMs established pres-
ences in the BRIC countries. In the years to come, it remains to be seen which approach
will have an edge, with more transactions to be expected after current partnering has
steadied.
However, market competition, technology changes and a more connected global
economy will likely drive further consolidation
VW takes over full ownership of Scania. Despite VW’s large ownership stake, Scania had remained an independently managed company.
Mahindra buys Navistar's stake in India JVs. M&M completes its purchase of the Navistar Group's stake in Mahindra Navistar Automotives Ltd (MNAL)
AB Volvo has signed an agreement with the Chinese vehicle manu-facturer Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited (DFG) to acquire 45% of a new subsidiary of DFG, Dongfeng
Isuzu Motors Limited establishes new joint venture company in Chongqing with its partner, Qingling Motors Group.
MAN Force, a JV between Indian Truckmaker Force and MAN AG was dissolved with Force Motors having sold and transferred remaining 50% of Man Force shares to MAN AG.
MAN and its Chinese partner Sinotruk have unveiled a new truck brand for China and other emerging markets. Called SITRAK
5/2014 2/2013 1/2013 6/2012 3/2012 4/2011
Selected Truck ownership transactions 2010 - 2014
VW takes over full ownership of Scania. Despite VW’s large ownership stake, Scania had remained an independently managed company.
Mahindra buys Navistar‘s stake in India JVs. M&M com-pletes its purchase of the Navistar Group‘s stake in Mahindra Navistar Automotives Ltd (MNAL)
AB Volvo has signed an agreement with the Chinese vehicle manufac-turer Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited (DFG) to acquire 45% of a new subsidiary of DFG, Dongfeng
Isuzu Motors Limited establishes new joint venture company in Chongqing with its partner, Qingling Mo-tors Group.
MAN Force, a JV be-tween Indian Truck-maker Force and MAN AG was dissolved with Force Motors having sold and rans-ferred remaining 50% of Man Force shares to MAN AG.
MAN and its Chinese partner Sinotruk have unveiled a new truck brand for China and other emerging mar-kets. Called SITRAK
Selected Truck Manufacturer Acquisitions 2011 – 2014
Source: Deloitte Global Truck Study 2014
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Source: Deloitte Analysis
China and Russia show the largest number of OEMs and thus the largest potential for consolidation
U.S.8
EuropeanUnion16
Russia24
CentralAmerica19
ASEAN13
Japan4
China34
India12
SouthAmerica
High consolidation pressure
Medium consolidation pressure
Low consolidation pressure
17
EasternEurope19
Low consolidation pressure Medium consolidation pressure High consolidation pressure
Number of OEMs Present in Major Markets in 2014 Drivers for Partnerships in
the Global Truck Market
Positioning in growth markets
as a prerequisite for long-term growth
Regional diversification
as a hedge against regional business cycles
Access to advanced technology
as a prerequisite for sustained competitiveness and regional diversification
Economies of scale as a lever to increase profitability
Relocation of productionas a step to increase profitabilityand proximity to growth markets
Market Overview Competitive Landscape
Source: IHS Global, Deloitte Analysis & Deloitte Global Truck Study 2014
4
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
4
Who owns whom in the global truck market?
Market Overview Competitive Landscape
Global Daimler VW Volvo Fiat
Daimler Trucks
Beijing Automotive Industry Holding
Beiqi Foton Motors
Beijing FotonDaimler
Automotive
Li-Tec(Germany)
DeutscheAccumotive
Fuso KAMAZTrucks(Russia)
Mercedes-BenzTrucks Vostok
Kamaz VectraMotor(India)
(Russia)
Daimler Group
MitsubishiGroup
Rolls-Royce Power Systems
Bharat BenzBB Freight-liner
FotonAuman
Foton
50%
100%
50%50%100%
50%
50%
11%
100%
89%
50%99%
11%
WesternStar
MercedesBenz
MitsubishiFuso
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
Tata Motors
Fiat Group
Iveco-AMT(Russia)
SAIC-IvecoComm. Vehicle
Investment(China)
SAIC-IvecoHognyanComm.Vehicles(China)
Iveco Larimar(South Africa)
Iveco Samotlor(Russia)
Naveco(China)
AstraIveco Iveco
MagirusIveco
Hongyan
Yuejin
Dodge
Tata
51%
50%
Renault Trucks
Volvo Trucks
Hyundai MotorCompany
Dongfeng
MWMInternational
JAC Motors (Anhui Jianghuia
Automobile)
LeylandTrucks
NovotruckRussia
MotorCorporation
DongfengCummins
GuanzhouHyundai(China)
Engine(China)
DongfengNissan-Diesel
(China)Renault
Volvo Group Eicher Motors
VE CommercialVehicles(India)
Dongfeng
Dongfeng Motor Co.
Ford Otosan(Turkey)
NC2 Global(outside Nafta)
MahindraNavistar
AutomotivesLtd
MahindraNavistarEngines
NC2 GlobalJianhuai
Automobile(China)
Blue Diamand(Nafta)
NavistarJianghuai
Automobile(China)
CommercialVehicles(China)
DongfengDND
Renault
Volvo
Mack
UD Trucks
Hyundai
Eicher
18%
8%
100%
67%
50% 50%
50%
45%
50%
50%
Dongfeng Chaoyang
Diesel Engine
Ford MotorCompany
Mahindra &Mahindra
JianglingMotors Corp.
Taiyuan Changan Heavy Truck Co
Paccar
MAN SE
Scania Trucks Hino Motors
AshokLeylandMotors
Isuzu Motors
FAW GroupFAW Jie Fang
Truck
GAZ
Uralaz
CNHTCSinotruk
VolkswagenGroup AG
Toyota Group
MAZ-MAN(Belarus)
MAN ForceTrucks (India)
Cummins-ScaniaInjection
(USA)
QinglingMotors(China)
Isuzu HICOM(Malaysia) GAZ FAW
(Russia)TRW FawerCommercial
Vehicle Steering(China)
Deutz (Dalian)Engine(China)
SevertsalautoIsuzu
(Russia)
QinglingMotors
Smith ElectricalVehicles
Hinduja Group
Nissan Motors
AutomotiveInfotronics
Private(India)
Ashok Leyland Nissan Vehicles
(India)
Nissan AshokLeyland
Technologies(India)
Nissan AshokLeyland
Powertrain(India)
Jinan HuawoTrucks
XianCummins(China)
VolkswagenTrucks &
Buses Scania
MAZ-MAN
Steyr SITRAK CNHTC/Jinan
Hino
AshokLeyland
Avia
Isuzu
UralTruck
FAW Jie Fang
GAZ
HuanghePrince
Howo
MAN
Shaanxi
50%
50%
100%
72%
30%
25%
17%
51%
6%
9%
35%
50%
51% 50%
49%
51%
50%49%
100%
75%
IsuzuQingling
Engineering
Isuzu Commercial
Truck of America(Nafta)
PT IsuzuAstra Motors(Indonesia)
GM-IsuzuCommercial
Truck(Nafta)
IsuzuPhilippines
IPC
60%
100%
50%
TataDaewoo
TataCummins
(India)
Tata Group
Karsan
50%
55%
50%
50%
100%
100%50%
32%
Ford
DAF
Peterbilt
Kenworth
International
41%
100%
50%
75%
50%
25%
50%
50%
51%76%
50%
Kamaz - Engineering(Kazakhstan)
CumminsKama
(Russia)
NavistarInternational
100%
51%
80%
29%
51%
45%
20%
75%
35%
80%
25%
50%
50%
33%
50%
66%
50% 45%
50%
50%
IC Bus
51%
Engine Holding GmbH*
*Stand 08/2014
100%
DongfengMotor Group
Kamaz
Iveco
ShaanxiHeavy-dutyAutomobile
4
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
OEM Other Player Joint Venture Brand
Ownership Strategic Partnership Joint Venture
4
Mercedes Benz is expected to lead Daimler’s 2024 unit sales, followed by Freightliner and Mitsubishi Fuso
Other
Western Star
Mitsubishi Fuso
Mercedes Benz
Freightliner
Bharat Benz
39%
21%
1%1% 5%
33%
Company Structure Units Sold by Brand in 2024 (%)
Truck Brands by Region
Freightliner
Mercedes Benz
Mitsubishi Fuso
Western Star
Other
Bharat Benz
Market Overview Competitive Landscape
Global Daimler VW Volvo Fiat
Daimler Trucks
Beiqi Foton Motors
Beijing FotonDaimler
Automotive
Li-Tec(Germany)
DeutscheAccumotive
Fuso KAMAZTrucks(Russia)
Mercedes-BenzTrucks Vostok
(Russia)
Daimler Group
MitsubishiGroup
Rolls-Royce Power Systems
Bharat BenzBB Freight-liner
FotonAuman
Foton
50%
100%
50%50%100%
50%
50%
11%
100%
89%
50%99%
11%
WesternStar
MercedesBenz
MitsubishiFuso
100%
50%
50%
Engine Holding GmbH*
Kamaz
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Freightliner
Freightliner
Freightliner
Mercedes Benz
Mercedes Benz
Mercedes Benz
Mercedes Benz
Fuso
FusoFuso
FusoFuso
BharatBenz
Foton
Fuso
Western Star Trucks
Western Star Trucks
OEM Other Player
Joint Venture Brand
Ownership
Strategic Partnership
Joint Venture
Source: IHS Global, Deloitte Analysis
In 2024, MAN will continue to be Volkswagen Group’s top-selling truck brand, harmonizing technical platforms across VW Group with much potential
Other
Volkswagen
Scania
MAN
35%
22%
<1%
43%
Company Structure Units Sold by Brand in 2024 (%)
MAN
Scania
Volkswagen
Other
Market Overview Competitive Landscape
Global Daimler VW Volvo Fiat
Truck Brands by Region
MAN SE
Scania Trucks
CNHTCSinotruk
VolkswagenGroup AG
MAZ-MAN(Belarus)
MAN ForceTrucks (India)
Cummins-ScaniaInjection
(USA)
XianCummins(China)
VolkswagenTrucks &
Buses Scania
MAZ-MAN
Steyr SITRAK CNHTC/Jinan
HuanghePrince
MAN
Shaanxi
50%
50%
100%
72%
30%
25%
17%
75%
ShaanxiHeavy-dutyAutomobile
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Scania
MAN
Volkswagen Nutzfahrzeuge
Scania
MAN
Scania Scania
Scania
MAN
Scania
Sitrak
Scania
MAZ-MAN
OEM Other Player
Joint Venture Brand
Ownership
Strategic Partnership
Joint Venture
Source: IHS Global, Deloitte Analysis
In 2024, more than half of the Volvo trucks sold will be Volvo-branded, but further developing scale across brands remains a key factor for success
Volvo
UD Trucks
Renault
Mack
55%
10%
20%
15%
Company Structure Units Sold by Brand in 2024 (%)
Mack
Renault
UD Trucks
Volvo
Market Overview Competitive Landscape
Global Daimler VW Volvo Fiat
Truck Brands by Region
Renault Trucks
Volvo Trucks
DongfengMotor
Corporation
DongfengCumminsEngine(China)
DongfengNissan-Diesel
(China)Renault
Volvo Group Eicher Motors
VE CommercialVehicles(India)
Dongfeng
Dongfeng Motor Co.
CommercialVehicles(China)
DongfengDND
Renault
Volvo
Mack
UD TrucksEicher
18%
8%
100%
67%
50% 50%
50%
45%
50%
50%
55%
50%
DongfengMotor Group
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
VolvoVolvoVolvo
Volvo
RenaultDFM
UD Trucks
UD Trucks
Mack
Volvo
Volvo
Eicher
Renault
Renault
UD Trucks
Mack
Volvo
OEM Other Player
Joint Venture Brand
Ownership
Strategic Partnership
Joint Venture
Source: IHS Global, Deloitte Analysis
In 2024, Fiat’s Iveco brand will still be predominantly focused on two regions: >70% in Europe and the remaining sales in South America
Other
RAM
Iveco
15%
85%
Company Structure Units Sold by Brand in 2024 (%)
Iveco
Dodge RAM
Other
Market Overview Competitive Landscape
Global Daimler VW Volvo Fiat
Truck Brands by Region
Fiat Chrysler AutomobilesFiat Group
Iveco-AMT(Russia)
SAIC-IvecoComm. Vehicle
Investment(China)
SAIC-IvecoHognyanComm.Vehicles(China)
Iveco Larimar(South Africa)
Iveco Samotlor(Russia)
Naveco(China)
AstraIveco Iveco
MagirusIveco
Hongyan
Yuejin
Dodge
51%
50%
60%
33%
50%
100%
Iveco
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Iveco Astra
Iveco
Iveco
IvecoDodge
Iveco
OEM Other Player
Joint Venture Brand
Ownership
Strategic Partnership
Joint Venture
Source: IHS Global, Deloitte Analysis
North America: Aftermarket Pricing is a key lever for profitable growth and deserves even more management attention
Industry Trends in the NA Truck Industry
• Growing complexity of products and services
• Inadequate coverage of older vehicles by network
• Price-sensitive customer buying behavior
• Changing distribution patterns – short haul vs. long distance
and innovative delivery solutions
Immediate Priorities and Long-Term Opportunities in Aftersales
• Implement advanced pricing capabilities moving from cost and
competition-based pricing to value–based pricing strategies
• Align product strategy to incorporate aftermarket requirements
• Improve dealer market share by improving offerings for price sensitive customers
• Alliances / partnerships to provide alternative channels
• Deploy service products – remote diagnostics, consulting and contract maintenance
The aftermarket accounts for approximately one third of total revenue
and is becoming a key differentiator for firms looking to improve profitability Q: In your opinion, how important are the following levers to increasing profitabil-ity of the aftersales segment?
Source: Deloitte Global Truck Study 2014
-20-10
0102030405060708090
100
New business models
Second brand for spare parts
Dealer interface
Availability of spare partsPricing
Very important
Very unimportant
57
44
4455
30 38
49
12 10 10 10
30
58
6
22
22
0
10
20
-20
-10
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
New business models
Second brand for spare parts
Dealer interface
Availability of spare parts
Pricing
57
44
4455
30 38
49
12 10
5
105
105
30
58
6
22
22
very important somewhat important
neutral somewhat unimportant
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Insights from OEMs
Winning in the aftermarket requires truck OEMs to extend current busi-ness models with new service elements and cooperation partners
Trends and Challenges Immediate Priorities Future Opportunities
Trends within the trucking industry are putting increased pressure on OEMs to capitalize on aftermarket sales to support their primary business
Low-Cost Suppliers 3rd Party Manufacturers Direct Sales with Dealers Retail Environment
• Vehicle lifecycle – Extended
part life due to improving quality
• Private label – Use of private,
value line parts to penetrate the
price-sensitive market
• Value-added services –
Expanded value-added services
offerings to improve service levels
and retain business
Products and Services
• Dealer Support – Dealers need
support to capture price-sensitive
customers
• Dealer alternate channel –
Dealers have employed alternate
channel offerings to serve the
price-sensitive market
• Warehouse & Distribution
consolidation –
Major push to increase scale and
network / buying power
Network and Channel Coverage
• Buying sophistication –
Price-sensitive customers demand
lower-priced part options
• Driver Safety – Increased
scrutiny of safety / compliance
programs
• Alternate dealer suppliers –
Dealers are developing relation-
ships with WDs and OES for non-
proprietary parts
Customer Buying Behavior
• Changing Distribution
Networks – Will the long-dis-
tance freight model change to
short haul?
• The Future of Fuel – How will
alternate fuel technologies im-
pact aftermarket support ?
Questions on Future Trends
These trends manifest themselves across the entire shipping industry ecosystem,OEMs must devise ways to strengthen relationships with players at each point to succeed
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
OEMs have four key levers at their disposal to arrive at a smarter competitive approach in the aftermarket business
Trends and Challenges Immediate Priorities Future Opportunities
1
2
3
4
If executed successfully, the above strategies may lift
operating margin by 6% - 8%
Improve dealer market share• Improve e-commerce capability• Utilize end-customer analytics to find market opportunities• Enhance end-customer segmentation• Integarte supply chain to get visibility into dealer inventory
and buying patterns
Utilize dealer and customer incentives• Develop loyalty program• Execute end-customer campaigns• Provide dealer incentives• Manage dealers’ inventory
Align product strategy• Manage lifecycles• Innovate to improve proprietary content• Introduce value line products• Enhance competitive analysis
Strengthen pricing capabilities• Utilize advanced pricing analytics• Employ segment-based pricing• Implement pricing tools• Ensure organization alignment
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Priorities Deep Dive Pricing
Value Pricing is the most developed concept for price setting and has the greatest impact on profitability
Trends and Challenges Immediate Priorities Future Opportunities
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Priorities Deep Dive Pricing
Impact of profit driver improvements Pricing Evolution – From Cost-Based to Value-Based Pricing
1% improvement in…
…improves operating profit by
• Pricing has 3-4 times the effect on profitability
than other improvement measures
• The average 5% improvement in returns on sales
from improved pricing creates $1,5 billion of additional
value over 5 years for an average S&P 500 company
• Value Pricing is a price setting method that derives the perceived customer value
• Offerings are defined based on customer preferences and willingness to pay
• A value-based pricing initiative results in a win-win situation for both
customersand the seller
Source: IHS Global, Deloitte Analysis
0 3 6 9 12 15
Fixed Cost
Unit Volume
Variable Cost
Price 12,3%
6,7%
3,6%
2,6%
Strong
Weak
How do I recover my cost?
What was the price
of the best alternative?
What price will the market bear?
Perceived customer value
Economic and industry trends
Competitor prices
Historic costs
How much value am I
creating for my customer?
Pricing Maturity
Basis for Price Setting
Profi
tabi
lity
Impa
ct
ProactiveReactive
Cost-based pricing
Competi-tion based
pricing
Value-based pricing
Economy- based pricing
OEMs must be open to new partnerships across the entire ecosystem and reshape their process model accordingly
Trends and Challenges Immediate Priorities Future Opportunities
Truck Suppliers
Owner OperatorAggregators
FleetManagement
Service Providers
Insurance Providers
Service Providers: Develop part-supply relationships with third-party contract maintenance service providers
Owner-Operator-Aggregators: Develop relation-
ships with owner-operator- aggregators to gain access
to the independent owner-operator segment
Insurance Providers: Obtain the first right to provide replacement parts in the event of an accident
Targeted Ecosystem Partnerships
These alliances/partnerships could be particularly effec-
tive in penetrating the old-VIN vehicles that traditionally
do not use the OE dealer network for repairs
Opportunities exist to partner with a number of differ-
ent sectors within the trucking ecosystem to build rela-
tionships and gain access to new truck owners
Potential Opportunities
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
In Europe the telematics business is a game changer for truck OEMs
Telematics has undergone a few transitions since first appearing on the scene
Having evolved from a supporting role to providing major value-added to drivers, owners,
and OEMs, telematics puts entire new revenue streams within reach. OEMs have traditionally
focused on two core revenue streams from automotive telematics:
• Vehicle price markup
• Telematics subscriptions
But with all the data available and the potential use of that data, even more is possible.
Future OEM business models might focus on services rather than the truck itself
In 2024, the global OEM telematics market may total up to $20B US, with Europe account-
ing for the largest share
• Increasing connectivity and mounting cost pressure in the transportation business are the
main drivers for this growth
• In a very competitive market, a truck’s efficiency increasingly becomes the main buying
criterion for the customer.
While many studies show how telematics can improve truck operations and vehi-
cle management, the big question remains how OEMs stand to benefit
• Telematics is not about technology. To win the market against often cheaper aftermarket
organizations, OEMs must offer complete solutions
• OEMs need to lever their existing competitive advantage in trucks diagnostics while devel-
oping independent business models, that require integrating different skill sets from outside
the organisation
New business models have emerged that shift from selling a truck to providing
customers with new ways to improve total cost of ownership Q: In your opinion, is the field of telem-atics important for European OEMs? If yes, why?
Because telematics have an influence on TCO
Allows OEMs to collect data on customers and vehicles
Telematics as an enabler of further optimization
Telematics as the central element of future service offerings
Highly important for CRM
Information management creates added value
Source: Deloitte Global Truck Study 2014
Source: Deloitte Analysis
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
4
Insights from OEMs
In telematics, the OEM hardware segment will show superior growth
Market Outlook Market Trends Recommendation
Commercial Vehicle Telematics Forecast 2014 – 2024 for OEM Hardware ($bn)
Commercial Vehicle Telematics Forecast 2014 – 2024 for Aftermarket Hardware ($bn)
Chart 2 (Stacked)
0
5
10
15
20
25
ROW
Asia
Europe
Latin America
North America
202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CAGR +17.2%
Chart 2 (Stacked)
0
5
10
15
ROW
Asia
Europe
Latin America
North America
202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CAGR +6.4%
North America Latin America Europe Asia ROW
Expected market size is
$11B for telematics by
the end of 2014
Source: Visiongain & Deloitte Analysis
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Usually, telematics are primarily employed to address TCO. Increasingly the view on TCO is broadened to include resources and operations management
Total cost of ownership for MCV & HCV vehicles
Market Outlook Market Trends Recommendation
0 20 40 60 80 100
GIT3
Licence
Addressed by telematics
Interest
Trailer
Tyres
Insurance
Repair & Maintenance
Depreciation
Overheads2
Wages
Fuel1
13 T5 years à
45.000 miles22% 39% 13% 13% 6%
Medium Commercial Trucks
0 20 40 60 80 100
GIT
Licence
Interest
Trailer
Tyres
Insurance
Repair & Maintenance
Depreciation
Overheads
Wages
Fuel
32%
26% 31% 15% 14% 7%
24% 17% 9% 7%
Heavy Commercial Trucks
26 T6 years à
50.000 miles40 T
6 years à 70.000 miles
Addressed by telematics
Fuel1 Wages Overheads2 Depreciation Repair & Maintenance
Insurance Tyres Trailer Interest Licence GIT3
Addressed by telematics
1 Based on 101 pence per litre Diesel2 Overheads are all business costs not specifically covered in the other cost types3 Goods in transit insurance
More than anything else, increasing cost pressure in the transportation business
drives telematics implementation. In a very competitive market, truck efficiency is
increasingly becoming the main buying criterion for customers.
Insights from OEMsQ: In your opinion, is the business area
telematics important for European OEMs? (% of respondents)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Navigation
Safety
Vehicle availability
OperationsManagement
(billing, delivery notes)
Fuel optimization
Optimization of resources
30%
30%
40%
50%
70%
80%
Source: Road Haulage Association, Cost Tables, Deloitte Analysis
Overview Potential Applications for “Area 3 New Telematics”Telematic Areas
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Source: Deloitte Global Truck Study 2014
There are 3 major application areas, ranging from core to adjacent to new telematics offerings
Market Outlook Market Trends Recommendation
Security/Safety Management
• Track and trace
• Stolen vehicle tracking
• Critical event alerts
Vehicle Uptime Maximization
• Remote Diagnostics
• Prognostics
Smart Navigation
• Dynamic Navigation
• Telematics-based fuel
• Green routing
• Electronic toll collection
• Real-time parking
Increase revenue by:
• Boosting truck prices due to
telematics features
Fuel Optimization
• Fuel POI tracking
• Charging station
• Battery swap facility location
• Fuel-tax filing
Mobile Resource Management
• Driver and vehicle connectivity
over cellular and WiFi networks
• Two-way communication
• V2I + V2V Communication
• EOBR, HOS
• Electronic vehicle inspection
• Handheld device connectivity
Leverage Telematics assets
1. Telematics data
2. In-vehicle screen to create value
in non-automotive industries like:
• Advertising
• Energy
• Financial Services
• Health
Area 1: Core Telematics
OEM value:
Area 2: Adjacent Telematics Area 3: New Telematics
• Growing truck sales through
enhanced CRM via telematics
• Offering fleet management services
• Providing new business solutions
outside the core automotive field
Overview Potential Applications for “Area 3 New Telematics”Telematic Areas
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
OEM’s telematics assets have business value for other industry sectors
Market Outlook Market Trends Recommendation
OEMs have traditionally focused
on two core revenue streams from
automotive telematics:
• Vehicle price markup
• Telematics subscriptions
However, telematics provides new
channels of access to customers as
well as new and valuable customer
insights
When aggregated and distributed
by partners these assets can gener-
ate incremental profits for OEMs
Augmentative telematics business
value opportunities in sectors adja-
cent to automotive as well as the
potential profit for OEMs
Overview Potential Applications for “Area 3 New Telematics”Telematic Areas
1. In-vehicledisplay & audio
6. Payment fordisplay & audio use
5. Payment for telematics advertising
4. Payment forapplication usage
2. In-app advertisingcapability 3. Text and audio ads
Advertising
Energy
Financial Services
Health
OEMPartner Company
e.g. App developers AdvertisersCustomers of
OEM’s telematics
1. Telematics data
6. Payment for data5. Payment for
gasoline4. Payment for
gasoline
2. Data, Analyticsplatform
3. Targetedpromotional offers
OEM Gas stationTelematicsCustomersOil Major
1. Vehicle andsurrounding data
6. Payment for data 5. Insurance premium 4. Insurance premium
2. Policy aligned withaccurate risk profile
3. Improved risk profiling for all customers
OEMCommon Customers
(to OEM and PC)Partner’s
customers onlyPartner Company
e.g. Auto Ins. Comp.
1. Safety warning based on driver condition, health/fitness advice
4. Payment for safety &health service
5. Payment for data and display
2. In-vehicle health monitoring data &
display/audio
3. In-vehicle health advice
OEMHealth Insurance
CompanyTelematics
Health Customers
Potential Value Streams for Level 3 new telematics
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Building the right telematics organization is key to winning the market
Market Outlook Market Trends Recommendation
Those without a vision for and a focus on the telematics organization
have faced greater growth challenges; organizations without a longer-
term focus have had difficulty laying the groundwork for innovative
future products and services.
Start regionally, moving towards global implantation or start as a
global entity at the outset; typically seen started as a focused, regional
level and scaled up. The drawback is a lack of global consistency at
the outset for data analysis and executive reporting, and an inconsist-
ent customer experience. In addition, the cost of multiple stand-alone
solutions is greater and comes at the expense of regional flexibility
and customization.
The telematics organization is sometimes grouped together with the
engineering and IT organizations. This may lead to the organization
becoming a cost center, limiting future revenue growth focus.
Building a telematics organization usually requires expertise and re-
sources of limited availability within the organization, which may need
to look externally for talent; skills and know-how. While such a step
may lead to advanced expertise being available, any externally fueled
growth needs to be balanced with organic growth.
Telematics is not about technology. To win the mar-
ket against often cheaper aftermarket organizations,
OEMs must offer complete solutions
Telematics solutions must be embedded in a service
organization to ensure that OEMs leverage their com-
petitive advantage, which is Truck Diagnostics and its
influence on the optimization of total cost of ownership
The challenge is developing an independent business
model with different lifecycles and supply chains for
the telematics organization
In the People dimension, content, application develop-
ment, and integration require a different skill set than
truck design or enhancement
OEMs that follow these steps consistently will
win the market
Common Telematics Organizational Challenges How to Win the Market
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
South East Asia Market Options: Gaining a larger share in these markets requires a tailored approach
The respondents in Deloitte’s Global Truck Study consider South East Asia the leading region
for future growth. China’s market is seen to expand only slightly while the saturated Japane-
se market is expected to stagnate.
Four groups of countries dominate the regional economic landscape
• With a per-capita GDP ≥U.S.$10,000, Singapore and Brunei represent the most mature
markets, where OEMs expand their business beyond truck sales & after-sales
• With a per-capita GDP ≥U.S.$5,000, Thailand and Malaysia will evolve away from their
emerging market status, allowing OEMs to offer the entire range of their service portfolios.
• With a per-capita GDP ≥U.S.$2,000, Indonesia and the Philippines offer an opportunity
to expand sales through dealers while transitioning into higher value added services
• With a per-capita GDP <U.S.$2,000, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar repre-
sent markets to be nurtured and strongly reliant on the development of logistics networks
A set of key drivers will holistically trigger an evolution across all groups
• Development of logistics networks and increasing transport efficiency will allow re-
manufacturing and salvage businesses in less mature markets
• Domestic demand expansion and exploitation of resources will propel the after-sales
and parts business and increasing use of customer information
• Mature markets will see progressing connectivity in rural areas and increasing use of
telematics and cross-industry partnerships
Southeast Asia is the leading growth region but a one-size-fits-all approach
will not work due to different country maturities and needsInsights from OEMsQ: In your opinion, In which regions
will your company‘s turnover grow in the future? (% of respondents)
ASEAN
33%
China
11%
USA
13%
Source: Deloitte Global Truck Study 2014
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
4
ASEAN countries vary by population, market size and level of economic development
65M
Myanmar
Thailand Laos
Cambodia
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia
Brunei
Philippine
Vietnam
68M
15M
87M
30M
248M
97M
7M
5M
0.4M
Group S: Per Capita GDP≥$10,000
Group B: Per Capita GDP≥$2,000
Group A: Per Capita GDP≥$5,000
Group C: Per Capita GDP<$2,000
NorthContinental Asia
SouthMaritime Asia
Group S: Per-capita GDP ≥ US$10,000
Group A: Per-capita GDP ≥ US$5,000
Group B: Per-capita GDP ≥ US$2,000
Group C: Per Capita GDP < $2,000
Bubble size represents population
ASEAN consists of “Northern” and
“Southern” members
North
• Thailand-centric market (“hub & spoke”)
• ASEAN highway construction will facili-
tate the interchange of people and goods
South
• Domestic demand-led market
Source: IMF, Euromonitor
Region Group A Group B Group C
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Predictions Recommendations Cases
Group A: Countries such as Thailand and Malaysia with high maturity
Region Group A Group B Group C
Developed
• Market almost saturated
• OEMs provide all services
• Transport efficiency
• Logistics volume
• Market deregulation
2014 2024
Mature
• Market highly developed
• OEMs expand business beyond
truck sales & after-sales service
Thailand Malaysia
Market Development
Main Driver
Maturity
Focus Area
16 20
3 62 4
7 9
MCV HCV
in K Units
Eco-friendly car Low-cost masstransport
High value-addedbody building Telematics Cross-industry
partnershipSource: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Predictions Recommendations Cases
Group B: High market potential but less profitability
Region Group A Group B Group C
Expanded
• Widespread use of trucks
• OEMs expand sales through deal-
ers
• Resource development
• Trade volume
• Government incentives
Developed
• Market almost saturated
• OEMs provide all services
Indonesia Philippines
Market Development
Main Driver
Maturity
Focus Area
17 33
22
71 89
After-sales service
Use of customerinformation
High-qualitybodybuilding
Remanufacturingbusiness
Parts sales
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
2014 2024
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Predictions Recommendations Cases
MCV HCV
in K Units
Group C: Small markets with high industrialization potential
Region Group A Group B Group C
Nurtured
• Little use of trucks
• OEMs make few inroads
into the market
• Resource development
• Thailand – Plus One
• Labor-intense industrialization
Expanded
• Widespread use of trucks
• OEMs expand sales through dealers
Vietnam MyanmarCambodia Laos
Market Development
Main Driver
Maturity
Focus Area
1 3
1 11 1
1 147 1116 31
After-salesnetwork development
Start of customermanagement
New trucksales
Remanufacturingbusiness
Source: IHS Global & Deloitte Analysis
2014 2024
Parts sales
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Predictions Recommendations Cases
MCV HCV
in K Units
OEMs must tailor their market growth strategies to a set of very diverse market needs
High market potential Suggestions for OEMs
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thailand
Myanmar
Cambodia
Philippines
Malaysia
Laos
After Sales CustomerManagement
Parts sales
RemanufacturingBusiness
Telematics Cross-industrialpartnership
• Offer differentiated services to:
- Increase customer loyalty
- Better serve mature markets
• Develop low-cost strategy to compete with
local/upcoming competitors
• Enter the market via the used vehicle business since
new vehicle market growth will be slow due to local
policies and poor infrastructure
Sales Market Entry Custom tariffs
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Predictions Recommendations Cases
Market Entry Strategy: OEMs can increasingly take advantage of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and lowered tariff barriers
Recommended Hub-Approach
• To tackle the growing and dynamic ASEAN markets
and comply with ASEAN content requirements,
OEMs commonly use one country as a regional hub,
taking advantage of low regional trade barriers
• Considerations when establishing a regional ASEAN
hub include
- Different entry tariffs and regulations for
each member state (e.g. CKD regulations)
- Regional and bilateral FTAs
- Location decision criteria (e.g. the right set of
location decision criteria to make sense of dif-
ferences in factor costs, workforce qualification,
infrastructure etc.)
• Individual markets should be addressed as required
by their respective size, maturity, and import duties
*FTA= Free Trade Agreement
For products traded among ASEAN member states, tariffs are decreasing while technological and homologation requirements are becoming harmonized
To enjoy these benefits, an ASEAN-produced content of 40% is required
Goods brought to the ASEAN region are subject to the respective requirements, incentives and tariffs of the entry country
ASEAN has concluded FTAs with China, Japan, South Ko-rea, India, Australia and New Zealand
Some ASEAN member states have concluded bilateral FTAs
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Predictions Recommendations Cases
Sales Market Entry Custom tariffs
Regional manufacturing strategies have to be built around localizing production and enabling a regional hub
CBU (Completely built-up)
• Vehicles do not require any additional assembly
• High effective tariffs
• Higher transportation cost
CKD/ SKD (Completely/ Semi knocked down)
• Local assembly complies with ASEAN content
requirements
• But local assembly adds supply chain complexity
• Applicable CKD/ SKD requirements to be considered
• Lower effective tax rate
• Leverages location factors
CKD/SKD and CBU Tariffs – LCVs, Trucks and Heavy Trucks1)
1) Based on Tariff Codes 8704.22 (GVW > 5t ≤ 20t ) and 8704.23 (GVW > 20t). Including individual customs rate, excise tax and other import fees. Serves as an overview and does not include rates applicable to special types of LCVs, trucks, and heavy trucks
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Vietnam
01020304050
40%
RegularCustoms Rate
EU China India
RegularCustoms Rate
EU China India
RegularCustoms Rate
EU China India
RegularCustoms Rate
EU China India
10%
40%
20%
40%
20%
40%
20%
40%
10%
40%
20%
30%
0%
50%
15%
50%
15%
50%
15%
40%
5%
30%
0%
30%
0%
30%
0%
26%
15%
01020304050
Effective Duty Rate CBU Effective CKD/SKD Rate Gap Tariff for individual parts applicable
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Predictions Recommendations Cases
Sales Market Entry Custom tariffs
OEMs have taken bolt action to win in the ASEAN market, with creating customer value at the core of the initiative
Business Cases
Global Heavy Duty Truck OEM
Global OEM
OEM for construction, mining and industrial machinery
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thailand
Myanmar
Cambodia
Philippine
Malaysia
Laos
After Sales
RemanufacturingBusiness
Telematics
• Forecast demand for cars/parts
• Know replacement timing of parts
• Use data for credit management
• Protect against theft (vehicle monitoring)• Offering diverse services by using
telematics
• Offering a wide range of af-
ter-sales services
• Building a remanufacturing
business
• Provide fleet management by contract
• Use genuine parts
• Provide 24h-service-and-parts support
• Offer safe-driving courses
• Provide high-quality products at a low price
• Buy back used parts
• Offer financing solutions
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
Market Predictions Recommendations Cases
Contacts
Christopher Nürk
Partner
Deloitte Consulting Germany
Germany
Thomas Schiller
Partner
Deloitte Consulting Germany
Global
Joe Vitale
Global Automotive Sector Leader
Deloitte Consulting United States
Italy
Marco Martina
Partner
Deloitte Consulting Italy
US
Bruce Brown
Principal
Deloitte Consulting United States
Asia
Yuki Kuboshima
Partner
Deloitte Consulting Asia
India
Kumar Kandaswami
Senior Director
Deloitte Consulting India
Sweden
Joakim Torbjorn
Partner
Deloitte AB
China
John Hung
Partner
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Michael Maier
Director
Deloitte Consulting Germany
Ranjit Singh
DC Principal
Deloitte Consulting United States
Manish Prabhu
Senior Manager
Deloitte Consulting United States
Britta Mittlefehldt
Manager
Deloitte Consulting Germany
Kei Hayase
Senior Manager
Deloitte Consulting Japan
Julia Pabst
Senior Research Analyst
Deloitte & Touche Germany
Henning Buchholz
Senior Consultant
Deloitte Consulting Germany
Authors
Global Automotive Team
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
4
Scope of the Analysis
About the Survey
The Deloitte Global Truck Survey was conducted by Deloitte’s Global Automotive Practice. The results of the survey are based on data from IHS Global,
analysis by the Deloitte Global Automotive Practice, and in-depth interviews with hand -selected senior executives of global truck OEMs.
Vehicle Classification
Productsegments
Regions
Weight in t Scope of analysis Weight in 1,000 lbs
Germany
Schwere Lastkraftwagen
Mittelschwere Lastkraftwagen
LeichteLastkraftwagen
Kleinlaster Light Vehicles/Cars
Light Commercia Vehicle (LCV)
Medium Commercial Vehicle (MCV)
Light Duty
Medium Duty
Heavy Duty
Class 8
Class 7
Class 6
Class 5
Class 4
Class 3
Class 2
Class 1
Heavy CommercialVehi-cle (HCV)
3.5
7.56.0
12.0
15.0
19.5
10.5
IHS United States
Commercial Vehicles
Trucks Buses VansTrailer/
semi-trailer Other
Central America
Costa Rica
Trinidad & Tob.
Mexico
Honduras
Colombia
Venezuela
Guatemala
Panama
Nicaragua
United States
Brazil
India
China
Japan
Russia
South America
Uruguay
Argentina
Chile
Paraguay
Bolivia
El Salvador
Ecuador
Eastern Europe
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Uzbekistan
Turkey
Asean
Indonesia
South Korea
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Philippines
European Union
Austria Latvia
Belgium Lithuania
Bulgaria Netherlands
Czech Rep. Norway
Denmark Poland
Estonia Portugal
Finland Romania
France Slovakia
Germany Slovenia
Greece Spain
Hungary Sweden
Ireland Switzerland
Italy Ud Kingdom
Rest of World (ROW)
Pakistan Peru
Bahamas Jamaica
Domi. Rep Australia
Neth Antilles Cuba
Saudi Arabia Barbados
Canada Haiti
Bermuda Belize
New Zealand Oth Caribbean
South Africa
Regions have been defined based on materiality and country-specific availability of sales data for MCV & HCV segment 1
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
4
Medium Duty Trucks Heavy Duty Trucks
Low Cost € 14.000 - € 40.000 € 22.000 - € 45.000
Midmarket € 20.000 - € 50.000 € 35.000 - € 65.000
Premium > € 45.000 > € 65.000
Daimler Trucks
Beijing Automotive Industry Holding
Beiqi Foton Motors
Beijing FotonDaimler
Automotive
Li-Tec(Germany)
DeutscheAccumotive
Fuso KAMAZTrucks(Russia)
Mercedes-BenzTrucks Vostok
Kamaz VectraMotor(India)
(Russia)
Daimler Group
MitsubishiGroup
Rolls-Royce Power Systems
Bharat BenzBB Freight-liner
FotonAuman
Foton
50%
100%
50%50%100%
50%
50%
11%
100%
89%
50%99%
11%
WesternStar
MercedesBenz
MitsubishiFuso
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
Tata Motors
Fiat Group
Iveco-AMT(Russia)
SAIC-IvecoComm. Vehicle
Investment(China)
SAIC-IvecoHognyanComm.Vehicles(China)
Iveco Larimar(South Africa)
Iveco Samotlor(Russia)
Naveco(China)
AstraIveco Iveco
MagirusIveco
Hongyan
Yuejin
Dodge
Tata
51%
50%
Renault Trucks
Volvo Trucks
Hyundai MotorCompany
Dongfeng
MWMInternational
JAC Motors (Anhui Jianghuia
Automobile)
LeylandTrucks
NovotruckRussia
MotorCorporation
DongfengCummins
GuanzhouHyundai(China)
Engine(China)
DongfengNissan-Diesel
(China)Renault
Volvo Group Eicher Motors
VE CommercialVehicles(India)
Dongfeng
Dongfeng Motor Co.
Ford Otosan(Turkey)
NC2 Global(outside Nafta)
MahindraNavistar
AutomotivesLtd
MahindraNavistarEngines
NC2 GlobalJianhuai
Automobile(China)
Blue Diamand(Nafta)
NavistarJianghuai
Automobile(China)
CommercialVehicles(China)
DongfengDND
Renault
Volvo
Mack
UD Trucks
Hyundai
Eicher
18%
8%
100%
67%
50% 50%
50%
45%
50%
50%
Dongfeng Chaoyang
Diesel Engine
Ford MotorCompany
Mahindra &Mahindra
JianglingMotors Corp.
Taiyuan Changan Heavy Truck Co
Paccar
MAN SE
Scania Trucks Hino Motors
AshokLeylandMotors
Isuzu Motors
FAW GroupFAW Jie Fang
Truck
GAZ
Uralaz
CNHTCSinotruk
VolkswagenGroup AG
Toyota Group
MAZ-MAN(Belarus)
MAN ForceTrucks (India)
Cummins-ScaniaInjection
(USA)
QinglingMotors(China)
Isuzu HICOM(Malaysia) GAZ FAW
(Russia)TRW FawerCommercial
Vehicle Steering(China)
Deutz (Dalian)Engine(China)
SevertsalautoIsuzu
(Russia)
QinglingMotors
Smith ElectricalVehicles
Hinduja Group
Nissan Motors
AutomotiveInfotronics
Private(India)
Ashok Leyland Nissan Vehicles
(India)
Nissan AshokLeyland
Technologies(India)
Nissan AshokLeyland
Powertrain(India)
Jinan HuawoTrucks
XianCummins(China)
VolkswagenTrucks &
Buses Scania
MAZ-MAN
Steyr SITRAK CNHTC/Jinan
Hino
AshokLeyland
Avia
Isuzu
UralTruck
FAW Jie Fang
GAZ
HuanghePrince
Howo
MAN
Shaanxi
50%
50%
100%
72%
30%
25%
17%
51%
6%
9%
35%
50%
51% 50%
49%
51%
50%49%
100%
75%
IsuzuQingling
Engineering
Isuzu Commercial
Truck of America(Nafta)
PT IsuzuAstra Motors(Indonesia)
GM-IsuzuCommercial
Truck(Nafta)
IsuzuPhilippines
IPC
60%
100%
50%
TataDaewoo
TataCummins
(India)
Tata Group
Karsan
50%
55%
50%
50%
100%
100%50%
32%
Ford
DAF
Peterbilt
Kenworth
International
41%
100%
50%
75%
50%
25%
50%
50%
51%76%
50%
Kamaz - Engineering(Kazakhstan)
CumminsKama
(Russia)
NavistarInternational
100%
51%
80%
29%
51%
45%
20%
75%
35%
80%
25%
50%
50%
33%
50%
66%
50% 45%
50%
50%
IC Bus
51%
Engine Holding GmbH*
*Stand 08/2014
100%
DongfengMotor Group
Kamaz
Iveco
ShaanxiHeavy-dutyAutomobile
4
© 2014 Deloitte Consulting GmbH
OEM Other Player Joint Venture Brand
Ownership Strategic Partnership Joint Venture
4
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