Tropical Storm Sendong - Presentation by Manila Observatory and Xavier University

8/3/2019 Tropical Storm Sendong - Presentation by Manila Observatory and Xavier University

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TROPICAL

STORM

SENDONG

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Washi.html

Manila

Observatory(www.observatory.ph)

together with

Xavier UniversityDr. Ando Siringan, MSI


2/71

Risk Lexicon!RISK! Likelihood of harm,loss, disaster!RISK= f (HAZARD, EXPOSURE,VULNERABILITY) !!

(UNDP and UNDRO, 1979)!

HAZARD! Physical impact ofdisturbance!

EXPOSURE! Elements affected byhazard!

VULNERABILITY! Susceptibility, capacityto prepare, absorb, &recover from hazard!


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Max Wind Speed(JTWC/1-min avg):

100 km/hr

24 hours total rainfallPAGASA Lumbia Station:

180mm

TROPICAL STORM SENDONG


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NAME% YEAR%HIGHEST%WIND%

SPEED%(KPH)%DEATHS%

DAMAGE%%

(Php%B)%

Rosing' 1995' 260' 936' 11'

Reming' 2006' 320' 754' 5'

Frank' 2008' 172' 938' 13'

Uring'' 1991' 95' 5101' 1'

Pepeng' 2009' 120' 492' 27'Ondoy' 2009' 85' 464' 11'

Sendong% 2011% ~100% ~1000+% @%

Nitang' 1984' 220' 1363' 4'

Typhoon2000.com!


5/71

Max Wind Speed(JTWC/1-min avg):

100 km/hr

24 hours total rainfallPAGASA Lumbia Station:

180mm

TROPICAL STORM SENDONG

What is180mm

OF TOTAL

RAINFALL FOR ADAY?

Ondoy:Total 1 day

rainfall =~370mm


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0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1952

1953

1955

1956

1958

1960

1961

1963

1964

1966

1968

1969

1971

1973

1974

1976

1977

1979

1981

1982

1984

1986

1987

1989

1990

1992

1994

1995

1997

1999

2000

2002

2003

2005

134 (1985)129 (1998)

142 (1999)

Lumbia PAGASA Station (Rainfall mm/day)

From 1977-2005 (29 years), dailyrainfall that isgreaterthan 125mm in Lumbia, Cagayan de Oro

happened only three (3) times.

100

125

Data source: PAGASA


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Rainfall Distribution - Lumbia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

75 100 125 150 175 200

Rainfall (mm)

Frequency

1977-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

Usual heavy rainfall

75 100 125 150 170 200

Range of amount of heavy rainfall(mm/day)

Ho

w

oftenithappens

PAGASA Lumbia StationRainfall Distribution

Data source: PAGASA


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Janu

ary

Februa

ry

March

April

May

June Ju

ly

Augu

st

Septem

ber

Octobe

r

Novembe

r

Decembe

rAver

ageMonthlyRain

fall(

mm)

Average Monthly Rainfall inPAGASA Lumbia Station

(1977-2005)

Data source: PAGASA

117 mm

Tropical stormSendong recorded~180mm of rainfall inLumbia station within1-day

180mm


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Xavier UniversityStation

DahilayanZipzone Station

HOW FAST DID IT HAPPEN?180mm / 24 hrs = 7.5 mm/hr180mm / 6 hrs = 30 mm/hr


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Hourly Accumulated Rainfall and Average Pressure in XavierUniversity, Cagayan de Oro City (16-17 Dec 2011)

0

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

4AM

6AM

8AM

10AM

12PM

2PM

4PM

6PM

8PM

10PM

12AM

2AM

Rain(mm)

1002

1007

1012

Pressure(mb

ar)

Accumulated Rain

Hourly Rain

Bar

Accumulated Rain

84.8 mm

Data from Xavier University, Cagayan de Oro


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Hourly Accumulated Rainfall and Average Pressure in

Dahilayan (16 Dec 2011)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2AM

5AM

8AM

11AM

2PM

5PM

8PM

11PM

Rain(mm)

998

1000

1002

1004

Pressure(mbar)

Accumulated Rain

Hourly Rain

Bar

Accumulated Rain

119.11 mm

Data courtesy of Engr. Elpidio Paras


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TRMMCagayandeOro/Lumbia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

11PM 2AM 5AM 8AM 11AM 2PM 5PM 8PM 11PM 2AM 5AM 8AM 11AM 2PM

3HourlyAccumulatedRainfall(mm)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

AccumuatedRa

infall(mm)

3HourlyAccumulatedRainfall

AccumulatedRainfall

3-Hour Accumulated Rainfall in Xavier University,

Cagayan de Oro City (15-17 Dec 2011)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

11PM

2AM

5AM

8AM

11AM

2PM

5PM

8PM

11PM

2AM

5AM

3-HourRain(m

m)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

AccumulatedRain

(mm)Accumulated Rain

Hourly Rain

HEAVYRAINFALL

WITHIN

~ 6-7HOURS

(5PM to12MN)Satellite-based

rainfall

5PM-12MN

5PM-12MN

Groundstation

3-hourlyaccumulatedrainfall


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HOW DID IT PROGRESS?

3 HOURLY

ACCUMULATED RAINFALL


14/71


TRMMprovided a "top

down"rainfall analysis

of Tropical Storm Washi on

Dec. 15. Light tomoderate rainfall (green

and blue) was falling

throughout the storm a

rate between20 to 40

mm per hour. There were

moreareas of heavy

(red) rainfall around the

center of the storm than

on the previous day.Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce


15/71

This TRMM 3-D image

created from data on

Dec. 15, showed

Tropical Storm Washi's

tallest

thunderstorms

reached heights of

over 15 km and were

located in the feeder

bands converging into

northwest side of the

storm.

Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal

Pierce



16/71

DEC 1511AM - 2 PM

mm in 3 hours

Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)


17/71

DEC 152PM - 5 PM



18/71

DEC 155PM - 8 PM



19/71

DEC 158PM - 11 PM



20/71

DEC 15, 1611PM 2 AM



21/71

DEC 162 AM 5 AM



22/71

DEC 165 AM 8 AM



23/71

DEC 168 AM 11 AMSatellite based rainfall (TRMM)


24/71

DEC 1611 AM 2 PM



25/71

DEC 162 PM 5 PM



26/71

DEC 165 PM 8 PM



27/71

DEC 168 PM 11 PM



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DEC 16, 1711 PM 2 AM



29/71


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DEC 175 AM 8 AM



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Northern Mindanao, Region 10, Elevation (based on SRTM 90m data)


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192

Data: PAGASA, XU, DMPI

291

223

475

217256

85

180


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RAINFALL! FLOODING

EARLY WARNING FLOOD

MODELING PRELIMINARY RESULTS


35/71

Dec 16, 12 NN


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Dec 16, 1 PM


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Dec 16, 2 PM


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Dec 16, 3 PM


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Dec 16, 4 PM


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Dec 16, 5 PM


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Dec 16, 6 PM


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Dec 16, 7 PM


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Dec 16, 8 PM


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Dec 16, 9 PM


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Dec 16, 10 PM


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Dec 16, 11 PM


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Dec 16, 12 MN


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Dec 17, 1 AM


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Dec 17, 2 AM


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EXPOSURE


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Northern Mindanao, Region 10, Elevation (based on SRTM 90m data)


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Source: National Mapping & Resource Information AuthoritySource: Landsat MSS taken 1973Source: Landsat TM taken 1992Source: Landsat ETM+ taken 2002Source: SPOT taken 2005

compliments of:

MSabines

Slide Courtesy of XU, XU ERC


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Cagayan de Oro City has the highest population density by municipality/cityfor Misamis Oriental and the rest of Northern Mindanao


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2005 LAND USE2007 POPULATION DENSITY


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Isla De Oro


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AWARENESS ON HISTORICALINFORMATION

DO TYPHOONS PASS THROUGH

MINDANAO??


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1945-

1950

1951-

1955

1956-

1960

1961-

1965

1966-

1970

1971-

1975

1976-

1980

1981-

1985

1986-

1990

1991-

1995

1996-

2000

2001-

2005

2006-

2010

Numb

eroftyphoons

Number of typhoons that make landfall in Mindanaofrom 1945-2010 (BARS are EVERY 5 YEARS)

35 typhoons in the last 65 years

6 typhoons in the last 15 years


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GARCIA-HERRERA ET AL.: NORTHWEST PACIFIC TYPHOONS, 1566 1900, JGR, 2007

Typhoons trajectories identified by Selga for 1883 1900

~ 21 typhoons in 17 years

passed through Mindanao


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AWARENESS ON HISTORICALINFORMATION

DO TYPHOONS PASS THROUGH

MINDANAO??

IN DECEMBER??


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Roughly 1 TYPHOON per 10 YEARS

cross Mindanao in DECEMBER


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DECEMBER 16-17, 1920

Lowest pressure at ~4am

Manila Observatory Archives


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DECEMBER 1930

Manila Observatory Archives


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1992 and earlier

Land use figures courtesy of XU ERC

1973

1992

2002 2005


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Extreme weather event; !rainfall potentially enhanced by

orographic mountain effect !

Expansion of built up areas;!

Cagayan de Oro densely

populated!

Awareness, Information

(Baselines, historical .)


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THANK YOU

www.observatory.ph


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Valuable contributions to this analysiscome from:

Genie Lorenzo Fernando Siringan

Faye Cruz Toni Loyzaga

Julie Dado Celine Vicente

Emil Gozo Gemma NarismaRaul Dayawon

Xavier University

Many thanks to Engr. Elpidio Paras for providing the

data at the Dahilayan Adventure Park.

Tropical Storm Sendong - Presentation by Manila Observatory and Xavier University

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