Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Irene (AL092011 ... · PDF fileTropical Cyclone Report...

Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Irene

(AL092011) 21-28 August 2011

Lixion A. Avila and John Cangialosi

National Hurricane Center 14 December 2011

Updated 19 December 2011 to correct landfall pressure in New Jersey

Updated 28 February 2012 to correct the longitude of an observation in Table 3 Updated 11 April 2013 to revise total damage estimate

Irene hit Crooked, Acklins and Long Island in the Bahamas as a category 3 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) but gradually weakened after crossing the Bahamas. It made landfall in North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and caused widespread damage across a large portion of the eastern United States as it moved north-northeastward, bringing significant effects from the mid-Atlantic states through New England. The most severe impact of Irene in the northeastern United States was catastrophic inland flooding in New Jersey, Massachusetts and Vermont.

a. Synoptic History

Irene originated from a vigorous tropical wave that exited the west coast of Africa on 15 August, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. The convection diminished when the wave moved just south of the Cape Verde Islands the next day, but the wave maintained a well-defined mid-level circulation. Showers and thunderstorms gradually regenerated while the wave continued westward across the tropical Atlantic, and the cloud pattern became better organized by the time the system was halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles on 17 August. A reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system for several hours on 20 August, finding surface winds of 40-45 kt but no well-defined closed low-level circulation. Finally, just before the conclusion of the mission, the aircraft was able to “close off” a circulation near the southern edge of the convection about 120 n mi miles east of Martinique, marking the formation of a tropical storm shortly before 0000 UTC 21 August. The “best track” chart of Irene’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 11.

1 A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii, can be found on line at ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf. Data for the current year’s storms are located in the btk directory, while previous years’ data are located in the archive directory.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf

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After genesis, Irene moved toward the west-northwest across the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea, gaining organization and strength as the circulation became larger on 21 August. As the center of the cyclone moved over St. Croix around 2300 UTC that day, (Fig.4) an interval of light winds associated with the center was observed, and in fact, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was able to depart for its mission during that period of calm.

Irene continued west-northwestward and the center passed over the eastern shore of Puerto Rico at 0535 UTC 22 August. The cyclone became a hurricane while moving over the island a short time later, but the hurricane-force winds occurred only over water north of the center and did not affect the island. The hurricane moved very close to the north coast of Hispaniola on 23 August, and despite a favorable atmospheric environment of low shear, the interaction of Irene’s circulation with the high terrain of Hispaniola likely delayed additional intensification. As it moved away from Hispaniola early on 24 August, however, Irene began to strengthen. It became a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with a peak intensity of 105 knots and a minimum central pressure of 957 mb, at 1200 UTC 24 August when it was centered between Mayaguana and Grand Inagua in the Bahamas. The eye was then about 18 n mi in diameter, as reported by the meterologist on board the hurricane hunter plane. The hurricane continued moving west-northwestward, crossing Acklins and Crooked Islands near 1500 UTC 24 August, and these islands likely experienced category 3 hurricane conditions. Irene weakened a little bit when it moved over Long Island around 0000 UTC 25 August.

A mid-tropospheric trough developed over the eastern United States on 24 August, and the subtropical ridge that had been steering Irene west-northwestward across the southeastern Bahamas shifted eastward. Embedded within the associated flow pattern, Irene turned toward the north-northwest and north as it moved across the central and northwestern Bahamas. The eye passed between Exuma and Cat Island around 0600 UTC 25 August, crossed Eleuthera a few hours later, and then reached the Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas around 1800 UTC 25 August. By then, Irene had weakened further and these islands probably experienced category 2 hurricane conditions. Although Irene’s winds decreased during this period and the eye became less discernible in satellite images, its circulation expanded and the central pressure continued to fall, reaching 942 mb by 0600 UTC 26 August.

Figure 5 shows the evolution of Irene’s inner core from near the time of the peak intensity to the time of lowest pressure. The center panel shows a rainband in the northeast quadrant outside the eyewall that could have been the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle (which ultimately did not complete). In addition, the radial wind profile became very broad, consistent with the less defined banding pattern shown in Fig. 5b and c; reconnaissance data indicate that during 26 – 27 August, the radius of hurricane-force winds expanded and reached 80 n mi in the northeast quadrant. Note in Fig. 2 that after Irene reached its peak intensity at 1200 UTC 24 August, the normal Dvorak wind/pressure relationship (represented by the open

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circles) suggests stronger winds than what was observed. This is probably related to the larger than normal size of the cyclone and the absence of a particularly intense inner core.

The hurricane continued northward and passed well offshore from the east coast of Florida and Georgia while weakening. Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 1200 UTC 27 August with an intensity of 75 kt, producing category 1 hurricane-force winds within a swath primarily to the east of the center over the North Carolina sounds and the Outer Banks. Irene then continued north-northeastward, just offshore of the Delmarva peninsula, and made another landfall very near Atlantic City, New Jersey, at Brigantine Island, at 0935 UTC 28 August. Although Irene’s intensity at the New Jersey landfall was 60 kt, winds of that strength were confined to the waters east of the track of the center. Irene continued moving north-northeastward and the center moved over Coney Island, Brooklyn, New York around 1300 UTC 28 August, and then over Manhattan, New York City about 1 h later. Once again, the storm’s strongest winds at the time of landfall (55 kt) continued to occur primarily well to the east of the center. Irene moved north-northeastward over the northeastern United States and became extratropical when its center was near the New Hampshire/Vermont border around 0000 UTC 29 August. The cyclone was then absorbed at 0600 UTC 30 August over northeastern Canada by a frontal system.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Irene was well sampled by reconnaissance aircraft. There were 19 missions performed by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command and 16 by the National Oceanic Administration Agency (NOAA) Aircraft Operations Center WP-3D aircraft. The aircraft observations included flight-level winds, stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) surface wind estimates, dropwindsonde data and Doppler radar observations, as well as center “fixes”. There were also seven missions involving the NOAA G-IV high-altitude jet to sample the surrounding environment.

Other data sources during Irene included Coastal Marine Automated Network (CMAN) stations, National Ocean Service (NOS) stations, NOAA ocean buoys, and ships. The U.S. National Weather Service rawindsonde network considerably expanded its routine launches to provide additional data for input to numerical forecast models. Ship reports of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Irene are listed in Table 2, and selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3 and Figure 6.

Satellite observations also assisted with the analysis of Irene’s history. These include subjective Dvorak technique intensity and position estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and objective intensity Dvorak estimates from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-CIMSS). In addition, it was very important to include microwave

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data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, including UW-CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) intensity estimates, Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), including the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and the European Space Agency’s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT).

National Weather Service WSR-88D radars from San Juan, Puerto Rico, and near the coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic states, as well as FAA radars were used to make center fixes, observe the storm’s structure, and obtain velocity data. Surface observations provided by the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas Weather Services were very useful in constructing the best track in those areas.

There were unconfirmed reports of wind gusts of 100 kt in Moss Town, Exuma and in Arthur’s Town on Cat Island around 0600 UTC 25 August. Eleuthera reported a minimum pressure of 952.4 mb at 0900 UTC 25 August as the eye moved near that island, and Marsh Harbor in the Abacos measured a minimum pressure of 950.4 mb at 1700 UTC 25 August. These pressures are very similar to those reported by a reconnaissance aircraft at those times. An automatic weather station at West End in Grand Bahama reported sustained winds of 79 kt at 0100 UTC 26 August. The Bahamas Weather Service is in the process of recovering data from their automatic stations for analysis and verification.

The analyzed maximum wind speed of 105 kt at 1200 UTC 24 August is based on a 700- mb flight-level peak wind of 116 kt at 1430 UTC that day, measured by a hurricane hunter aircraft in the northeastern eyewall. After the time of this peak wind observation, the closed eyewall structure changed to a more fractured feature, and the strong flight-level winds were no longer penetrating down to the surface sufficiently to support the maintenance of a 105-kt intensity. In fact, the minimum central pressure continued to drop for another 15 h, to 942 mb at 0600 UTC 26 August (as measured by a dropsonde) but by then, Irene’s estimated intensity decreased to 90 kt.

Shortly before the center of Irene moved over New York City, flight-level winds measured by the reconnaissance aircraft would typically have support hurricane intensity at the surface. SFMR and dropsonde data, however, show that the standard flight level to surface wind reduction continued to be inappropriate; the observed surface wind values at that time support a 55-kt intensity. The latest observation to definitively support an analysis of hurricane intensity was an SFMR report of 66 kt well to the east of the center near 0103 UTC 28 August.

Irene produced copious amounts of rain in Puerto Rico, with a maximum of 22.05 inches in Gurabo Abajo, which caused major flooding in the northeastern portion of the island. In addition, Irene produced a large swath of 5 to 10 inches of rain along the east coast of the mainland United States and nearby inland areas from North Carolina northward. The maximum

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rainfall amount observed was 15.74 inches in Bayboro, North Carolina, as indicated in Fig. 7 and Table 3.

Irene was a large hurricane, and generated high waves and storm surge over a large portion of the western Atlantic basin for several days. The highest storm surge value reported by a tide gage was 7.09 ft at 0354 UTC 28 August at Oregon Inlet Marina, NC. Post storm surveys suggest that a storm surge of 8 to 11 ft occurred within portions of Pamlico Sound. Storm surge values between 4 and 6 ft were measured along the coast from New Jersey northward. Figure 8 shows selected storm surge values associated with Irene. Additional storm surge information can be found from the NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) website at http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov.

Irene spawned several tornadoes along its path over the eastern United States. The strongest was an EF2 tornado that touched down in Columbia, North Carolina, destroying a few manufactured homes. There were also two EF1 tornadoes in North Carolina, two of unknown intensity in Virginia, two EF0 tornadoes in New York, and one EF1 tornado in Pennsylvania.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

Preliminary reports indicate that Irene was directly responsible for 48 direct deaths: 5 in the Dominican Republic, 3 in Haiti, and 40 in the United States. Surprisingly, there were no reported deaths in the Bahamas, where Irene was the strongest. For the United States, including Puerto Rico, 6 deaths are attributed to storm surge/waves or rip currents, 13 to wind (including falling trees), and 21 to rainfall-induced floods. Additional information on those casualties is given in Table 7.

According to media reports and a summary provided by the Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic, Irene caused flooding from surge and high waves in low-lying areas and damaged homes in portions of the north coast of the Dominican Republic. Damage from flooding caused by rains was extensive across Puerto Rico and was severe near the area of Gurabo Abajo.

In the mainland United States, Irene caused widespread damage to homes and felled trees from North Carolina northward, and produced extensive power outages. In North Carolina, the flow from the sound to the ocean damaged Highway 12, cutting several breaches. The most severe surge damage occurred between Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras, but significant storm surge damage also occurred along southern Chesapeake Bay. In the Hampton Roads area, and along coastal sections of the Delmarva Peninsula from Ocean City, Maryland southward, storm surge flooding was comparable to that from Hurricane Isabel of 2003. In New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, Hurricane Irene produced torrential rains that resulted in major flooding

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/

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and several record breaking crests on rivers. A storm surge of 3-5 ft along the New Jersey shores caused moderate to severe tidal flooding with extensive beach erosion.

Since the strongest winds were over water to the east of the path of the center, New York City escaped severe damage. Nonetheless, a storm surge of 3-6 ft caused hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage in New York City and Long Island. Tropical-storm-force winds along with heavy rains resulted in power outages for up to 3 million residents that lasted to around 1 week, mainly across Connecticut and Long Island. Irene’s main impact, however was from rainfall. Catastrophic floods occurred in New York and New England, especially in central and southern Vermont. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4-7 inches occurred across much of southern and central Vermont. These rains caused devastating flash flooding across many mountain valleys with some record breaking flood stages on larger rivers. This flood event will likely rank second to the November 1927 flood, with nearly 2400 roads, 800 homes and businesses, 300 bridges, and a half dozen railroad tracks destroyed or damaged from the flooding in southern Vermont. Three towns in the Catskill Mountains in New York were uninhabitable after the floods.

In the United States, the Insurances Services Office reported that the hurricane caused an estimated $4.3 billion in losses. Doubling this figure in an attempt to account for uninsured losses results in an estimated total of $ 8.6 billion. Based on National Flood Insurance Program data, it is estimated that Irene caused $7.2 billion in losses from inland flooding and storm surge. Using these figures, the total damage estimate is $15.8 billion. The Government of the Bahamas is currently assessing the damage caused by Irene. A detailed summary of the damage can be found in the post-storm reports of local National Weather Service offices in affected areas.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

The genesis of Irene was well predicted. The tropical wave from which Irene originated was introduced with a low probability of formation (less than 30%) in the Tropical Weather Outlook at 0000 UTC 18 August, 72 h prior to formation. At this time, the tropical wave was located over the eastern Atlantic. The probability was raised to medium (30-50%) 48 h before genesis and then to the high category (greater than 50%) about 24 h before the tropical cyclone formed.

A verification of NHC official track forecasts for Irene is given in Table 4a. The NHC official mean track errors for Irene were considerably lower than the previous 5-yr average through 96 h, although the climatology and persistence model (OCD5) errors were also lower than normal, which indicates that the track of Irene was easier than average to forecast. Although the initial official forecasts indicated a threat to Florida, from the time Irene entered the southeastern Bahamas late on Tuesday 23 August, the NHC official track forecasts were

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remarkably consistent and accurate in showing a path offshore from Florida and extreme eastern North Carolina, along or very near the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states, and into the New York City/Long Island area as noted in Fig. 9. Forecast model guidance began converging on this solution when the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet began its surveillance missions on the 23 August. A homogeneous comparison of the official track errors with selected guidance models is given in Table 4b. Both the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather and Forecasting (ECMWF) model had lower mean errors than the official forecast through the entire lifetime of Irene. However, none of the multi-model consensus techniques had lower average track errors.

A verification of the NHC official intensity forecasts for Irene is given in Table 5a. The climatology and persistence model (OCD5) errors were lower than the previous 5-yr averages at all time periods, suggesting that the intensity of Irene was easier to forecast than average. However, official intensity errors for Irene were higher than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr period at all times. This was the result of a consistent high bias during the U.S. watch/warning period ( Fig. 10). The main reason for the high bias in the official forecast was that Irene was anticipated to maintain category 3 intensity through landfall in North Carolina, given that the hurricane was forecast to remain in an environment of relatively light wind shear while moving over a warm ocean. However, Irene surprisingly did not maintain or increase its strength while moving between the Bahamas and North Carolina. Rather, it weakened to a category 1 hurricane (two categories below what was originally anticipated) by the time it made landfall near Cape Lookout. One factor in this weakening could have been an incomplete eyewall replacement cycle (e.g. Fig. 4b). In this case, it appears that after the inner eyewall eroded, the outer eyewall never underwent the typical contraction and so re-strengthening did not occur. Instead, Irene’s structure was characterized by a series of rainbands, resulting in a broad and diffuse wind field that slowly decayed. It is important to note that NHC does not have reliable tools to anticipate these structural changes. Developing improved intensity forecast guidance is a top priority of NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project now in its early stages.

A homogeneous comparison of the official intensity errors with selected guidance models is given in Table 5b. The NHC intensity errors were generally larger than those of the guidance models available for Irene. The climatology and persistence model (OCD5) errors were generally lower than most of the remainder of the available intensity guidance, indicating a lack of skill in the guidance.

In addition, there was a high bias in the operational analysis of Irene’s intensity during much of 25-28 August, the period when the typical surface to flight-level wind ratio did not apply ( Fig. 10). There was a reluctance on the part of the forecasters to base the intensity on the lower SFMR winds, when the central pressure and flight-level winds were suggesting that stronger surface winds could become re-established at any time, had the convective structure of the cyclone improved.

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Watches and warnings associated with Irene are listed in Table 6. A tropical storm warning was issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at 2300 UTC 20 August, about 29 h before the center of Irene made landfall in Puerto Rico. The tropical storm warning for Puerto Rico was upgraded to a hurricane warning at 1500 UTC 21 August, but the island did not experience hurricane-force winds. A hurricane warning was issued for the U.S. southeast coast from Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia Border at 2100 UTC 25 August, providing a lead time of 39 h before the center crossed the coast. Watches and warnings were gradually extended northward along the east coast of the United States as indicated in Table 6.

e. Acknowledgments

National Weather Service Forecast offices in Puerto Rico and along the United States east coast provided many of the observations listed in this report. NOAA buoy observations are from the National Data Buoy Center. The Hurricane Specialist Unit at the National Hurricane Center, especially Robbie Berg, provided extensive insight and guidance in the writing of this report. The NHC storm surge unit provided very valuable data for this report. We also thank the Meteorological Services of the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas for their input and data.

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Table 1. Best track for Hurricane Irene, 21-28 August 2011.

Date/Time (UTC)

Latitude (°N)

Longitude (°W)

Pressure (mb)

Wind Speed (kt) Stage

21 / 0000 15.0 59.0 1006 45 tropical storm 21 / 0600 16.0 60.6 1006 45 " 21 / 1200 16.8 62.2 1005 45 " 21 / 1800 17.5 63.7 999 50 " 22 / 0000 17.9 65.0 993 60 " 22 / 0600 18.2 65.9 990 65 hurricane 22 / 1200 18.9 67.0 989 70 " 22 / 1800 19.3 68.0 988 75 " 23 / 0000 19.7 68.8 981 80 " 23 / 0600 20.1 69.7 978 80 " 23 / 1200 20.4 70.6 978 80 " 23 / 1800 20.7 71.2 977 80 " 24 / 0000 21.0 71.9 969 80 " 24 / 0600 21.3 72.5 965 95 " 24 / 1200 21.9 73.3 957 105 " 24 / 1800 22.7 74.3 954 100 " 25 / 0000 23.5 75.1 952 95 " 25 / 0600 24.1 75.9 950 95 " 25 / 1200 25.4 76.6 950 90 " 25 / 1800 26.5 77.2 950 90 " 26 / 0000 27.7 77.3 946 90 " 26 / 0600 28.8 77.3 942 90 " 26 / 1200 30.0 77.4 947 85 " 26 / 1800 31.1 77.5 950 80 " 27 / 0000 32.1 77.1 952 75 " 27 / 0600 33.4 76.8 952 75 " 27 / 1200 34.7 76.6 952 75 " 27 / 1800 35.5 76.3 950 65 " 28 / 0000 36.7 75.7 951 65 " 28 / 0600 38.1 75.0 958 65 " 28 / 0935 39.4 74.4 959 60 tropical storm 28 / 1200 40.3 74.1 963 55 " 28 / 1300 40.6 74.0 965 55 " 28 / 1800 42.5 73.1 970 50 " 29 / 0000 44.2 72.1 979 45 extratropical 29 / 0600 46.5 69.5 983 40 " 29 / 1200 49.1 66.7 985 40 " 29 / 1800 51.3 63.8 987 40 " 30 / 0000 53.0 60.0 991 40 " 30 / 0600 absorbed

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Date/Time (UTC)

Latitude (°N)

Longitude (°W)

Pressure (mb)

Wind Speed (kt) landfalls

21 / 2300 17.8 64.6 993 60 St.Croix 22 / 0525 18.1 65.8 990 60 Punta Santiago, P.R.

24 / 1600 22.4 74.0 955 100 Acklins/Crooked Isl., Bahamas

25 /0000 23.5 75.1 952 95 Long Isl. 25 / 0900 24.7 76.2 950 90 Eleuthera 25 / 1800 26.5 77.2 950 90 Abacos 27 / 1200 34.7 76.6 952 75 Cape Lookout, N.C. 28 / 0935 39.4 74.4 959 60 Brigantine Is., N.J. 28 / 1300 40.6 74.0 965 55 Coney Island, Brooklyn

24 / 1200 21.9 73.3 957 105 maximum winds 26 / 0600 28.8 77.3 942 90 minimum pressure

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Table 2. Selected ship observations for Hurricane Irene, 21 -28 August 2011.

Date/Time (UTC)

Ship call sign

Latitude (°N)

Longitude (°W)

Wind dir/speed (kt)

Pressure (mb)

21 / 1900 J8AZ3 18.3 64.1 050 / 37 1007.0 22 / 0200 A8LL8 20.7 65.7 060 / 35 1014.0 22 / 1100 KIRH 19.0 66.3 050 / 60 997.5 24 / 0000 WCOB 19.9 70.2 140 / 37 1002.4 26 / 1100 H3GS 29.8 80.7 350 / 40 1002.0 26 / 1300 A8LC2 32.4 79.5 050 / 47 1005.0 27 / 0300 DHDE 33.1 72.0 170 / 40 1008.0 27 / 0900 V2CE9 32.7 69.9 180 / 40 1010.0 27 / 1100 WHDV 30.8 72.8 190 / 35 1006.0 27 / 1200 3FSB4 30.9 78.7 270 / 37 1004.0 28 / 0000 KIRH 36.2 70.5 140 / 44 1002.0 28 / 0100 JCRN4 39.5 74.5 050 / 40 995.0 28 / 0600 SBFC 36.9 67.9 150 / 37 1008.4 28 / 1200 C6VG8 36.0 70.9 180 / 45 1013.0 28 / 1200 SBFC 36.8 68.8 180 / 36 1006.3 28 / 1200 ZCDG8 40.5 67.8 160 / 56 1003.7 28 / 1300 C6TX6 35.3 72.7 160 / 47 998.0 28 / 1800 SBFC 37.2 69.9 190 / 39 1005.1 28 / 1800 IOSN3 43.0 70.6 130 / 41 987.6 28 / 1900 KNBD 42.0 70.1 180 / 51 989.8 28 / 2100 WKAB 40.2 67.3 180 / 37 1005.0 28 / 2300 VCSZ 47.0 70.8 050 / 37 995.6

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Table 3. Selected surface observations for Hurricane Irene, 21 -28 August 2011

Location

Minimum Sea Level Pressure

Maximum Surface Wind Speed

Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Netherlands Antilles

Saint Eustatius (TNCE) 21/1500 1004.1 21/1500 31 47

Saint Maarten (TNCM) 21/1800 1006.1 21/1800 27 40

Dominican Republic

Punta Cana (MDPC) 22/2100 1000.0 22/2100 20 40

Puerto Plata (MDPP) 23/1200 991.2 23/0600 50

Bahamas

George Town (MYEG) 25/0259 974.0 25/0559 42 60

Nassau (MYNN) 25/1300 987.5 25/1000 36 54

West End Grand Bahama 26/0000 995.9 26/0100 79

United States Puerto Rico and the U.S.

Virgin Islands

ICAO Sites

San Juan, PR (TJSJ) 22/0730 992.3 22/0611 39 51

St. Thomas, VI (TIST) 21/2143 1004.4 21/2112 40 60

St. Croix, VI (TISX) 23/0153 997.6 22/0038 38 44 Roosevelt Roads, PR

(TJNR) 22/0458 997.0 22/0054 34 49

Marine Observations Christiansted Harbor, St.

Croix, VI (CHSV3) 21/2218 996.5 21/2342 28 63 1.03 1.63

Lime Tree Bay, St. Croix, VI (LTBV3) 21/2236 996.9 22/0006 37 49 0.80 1.55

Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, VI (CHAV3) 21/2130 1003.7 0.95 1.42

Lameshur Bay, St. John, VI (9751381) 21/2142 1004.5 0.59 1.32

Culebra, PR (CLBP4) 22/0512 1004.5 22/0254 20 44 0.64 1.60 Esperanza,

Vieques, PR (ESPP4) 22/0412 996.0 22/0448 51 66 1.62 1.96

Fajardo, PR (FRDP4) 22/0530 998.4 22/0406 35 53 1.60 2.58 Yabucoa Harbor, PR

(YABP4) 22/0648 26 44 0.95 1.31

San Juan, PR (SJNP4) 22/0742 992.7 22/0654 35 48 0.86 1.80

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Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Public/Other Gurabo (GARP4) 18.25 N -65.98 W 22/0545 49 22.09

Canovanos (CNAP4) 18.37 N -65.91 W 20.70

Naguabo (NGHP4) 18.21 N -65.74 W 18.92

San Lorenzo (SLGP4) 18.19 N -65.97 W 18.02

Orocovis (OROP4) 18.22 N -66.39 W 17.84

Luquillo (MSCP4) 18.37 N -65.72 W 17.50

Carolina (TJSJ) 18.40 N -65.98 W 12.25

Ponce (IANP4) 17.98 N -66.61 W 10.09

Fajardo 22/0520 62

Yubucoa 22/0655 56

Las Mareas 22/0540 35

Florida

Marine Observations I-295 Bridge, St. Johns

River (8720357) 1.36 2.30

Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock) (MYPF1) 27/2248 1004.5 26/1212 28 1.38 6.76

Fernandina Beach (FRDF1) 27/2248 1001.4 1.85 8.70

Georgia

Marine Observations

Fort Pulaski (FPKG1) 27/2042 1000.9 26/1836 26 33 1.15 9.11

South Carolina International Civil

Aviation Organization (ICAO) Sites

Myrtle Beach (KMYR) 26/2123 30 38 North Myrtle Beach

(KCRE) 27/0853 989.5 26/2059 28 43

Florence (KFLO) 27/0953 997.2 26/1944 28 37

Georgetown (KGGE) 27/0735 994.9 27/0515 24 36

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Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Marine Observations Clarendon Plantation

(8667633) 1.62 9.94

Charleston (8665530) 27/0724 998.6 26/1648 30 40 1.44 7.64 North Inlet Winyah Bay

(NIWS1) 27/0545 994.0 27/0600 20

Springmaid Pier (MROS1) 27/0748 991.0 26/2130 40 54 1.65 7.66 Oyster Landing (N. Inlet

Estuary) (8662245) 2.15 7.53

North Carolina

ICAO Sites

Wilmington (KILM) 27/0953 979.5 27/1101 40 57

Lumberton (KLBT) 27/1054 993.2 27/1254 24 40

Southport (KSUT) 27/0915 981.4 27/0935 30 46

Beaufort (KMRH) 27/1256 951.9 27/1503 46 61 6.31

Frisco (KHSE) 27/1735 970.2 27/1251 51 76 6.77

Manteo (KMQI) 27/1715 35 57

Cherry Point (KNKT) 27/1254 954.3 27/0854 45 60

New Bern (KEWN) 27/1154 40 63 Elizabeth City USCG

(KECG) 27/2054 957.1 27/2005 43 64

Edenton (KEDE) 27/2155 33 49

Non-Metar Observations

Back Island (AWSs) 27/1118 985.1 27/1318 27 61 8.33 North Topsail Beach –

Marker 3 27/1005 973.9 27/0652 40 50

North Topsail Beach – Fire Department 27/1025 972.6 27/0652 43 48

Wrightsville Beach 27/0925 976.6 27/0754 34 51

Bald Head Island 27/0852 979.0 27/0852 50 59

Socastee-Schwartz Plant 27/0722 992.2 26/2153 24 39

Sunset Harbor 27/0939 982.7 27/0908 21 54

Whiteville 27/0906 990.2 27/0753 29 33 Wilmington-Kingston

Grant 27/0915 978.3 27/1154 23 46

Cedar Island (CITN7) 27/1400 954.0 27/1050 63 78

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Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Swanquarter (SWQN7) 27/1920 59 68

Cedar Island Ferry 27/1150 100

Weatherflow Observations

Fort Macon 27/1510 80

Buxton 27/1330 70

Oregon Inlet 27/1220 68

Salvo 27/1420 67

Avon Pier 27/1125 67

Frisco 27/1010 66

Pamlico Sound 27/1135 74

Marine Observations

Wilmington (8658120) 27/0930 979.5 0.14 5.24 North Carolina Reserve

(NOXN7) 27/0915 978.0 26/2230 38 6.20

Johnny Mercer Pier- Wrightsville (JMPN7) 27/0924 976.3 27/0236 49 64 2.11 6.85

Surf City 3.50 7.00

Beaufort (BFTN7) 27/1300 952.9 27/0806 35 58 3.03 6.28

Cape Lookout (CLKN7) 27/1200 953.3 27/1100 58 68 USCG Station Hatteras

(HATN7) 27/1736 968.6 27/0942 50 69 3.66 4.10

Oregon Inlet (ORIN7) 27/1954 965.5 27/2042 51 70 7.09 7.62

Duck (DUKN7) 27/2112 950.6 27/2106 61 73 1.82 5.22 Texas Tech University Tower Observations

Tower 0103A 35.55 N 75.46 W 27/1100 71*

Tower 0107A 34.69N 76.67 W 27/1000 69*

Public/Other Bayboro (COOP) 35.14 N -76.77 W 15.74

New Bern (COCORAH) 35.13 N -77.07 W 14.79

Williamston (COCORAH) 35.83 N -77.06 W 14.27

Kinston (COCORAH ) 35.24 N -77.51 W 13.61

16

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Washington (HYDRO)

35.55 N -77.05 W 13.11

Aurora (COOP) 35.30 N -76.79 W 13.10

Havelock (COCORAH ) 34.92 N -76.97 W 12.64

Greenville (COCORAH ) 35.50 N -77.33 W 12.32

Jacksonville (COCORAH ) 34.73 N -77.49 W 11.70

Winterville (COCORAH ) 35.50 N -77.33 W 11.20

Pocosin Lakes (HYDRO) 35.74 N -76.51 W 11.20

Croatan Forest ( RAWS) 34.76 N -76.89 W 11.13

Trent Woods (COCORAH) 35.05 N -77.09 W 10.94

Maysville (COCORAH) 34.92 N -77.29 W 10.68

Perrytown ( COOP ) 35.05 N -77.08 W 10.07

Virginia

ICAO Sites

Richmond (KRIC) 27/2254 986.6 28/0254 35 61 5.37

Norfolk (KORF) 27/2351 968.2 28/0151 35 49 7.92

Newport News (KPHF) 27/2354 975.0 28/0128 35 52 7.18

Langley AFB (KLFI) 27/2355 973.1 27/2155 37 54

NAS Norfolk (KNGU) 27/2359 971.0 27/2259 37 51

Fort Eustis (KFAF) 28/0006 975.7 28/0551 35 52 James City/Williamsburg

(KJGG) 27/2355 21 66

Reagan National (KDCA) 28/0652 985 28/0454 36 52 3.83 Washington/Dulles

(KIAD) 29/0052 998 28/0432 28 44

Fort Belvoir (KDAA) 28/0558 986 28/0755 27 43 3.36

Manassas (KHEF) 28/0615 25 38

Warrenton (KHWY) 28/0415 24 38

Leesburg (KJYO) 28/0735 26 38

17

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)


Reston (RSTFM) 28/0615 48

Lorton (LORTN) 28/0559 43

Woodbridge (WODBR) 28/0649 43

Spotsylvania (SPTSY) 27/2130 42

Fairfax (FORFX) 28/0539 38

Weatherflow Observations

Cape Henry 27/0036 963.0 27/1126 48 57

Little Creek 27/0834 36 41

Monitor Merrimac Bridge 27/0828 971.0 27/1057 46 57

Hampton Flats 28/1205 979.0 27/0230 34 49 3rd Island Chesapeake Bay

Bridge Tunnel 27/0755 966.0 28/0415 47 54

New Point Comfort 27/0803 37 44

Deltaville 27/0120 991.0 27/0136 41 47

Tangier Island 27/0115 970.0 27/1150 35 42

Onancock 27/1138 969.0 27/0100 38 56

Cobb 28/0110 58 64

Monroe Creek 28/0415 45 55

Marine Observations Chesapeake Light Tower

(CHLV2) 28/0100 959.0 27/2200 51 64

Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel (CBBV2) 27/2348 967.3 27/1600 51 62 4.14 7.38

Rappahannock Light Tower (RPLV2) 28/0306 970.1 28/0530 48 57

York River Range (YRKV2) 28/0106 972.6 27/1812 49 65

Yorktown USCG (YKTV2) 28/0012 974.7 28/0342 46 57 3.69 6.60

Willoughby Degaussing Station 27/2336 970.1 27/1612 48 58

Lewisetta (LWTV2) 28/0406 979.1 28/0824 33 50 2.96 4.54

Sewells Point (SWPV2) 27/2306 972.0 4.54 7.55

Money Point (MNPV2) 27/2312 968.5 28/0148 35 54 4.82 8.48

Windmill Point (8636580) 3.02 4.73

18

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Kiptopeke (KPTV2) 28/0448 43 55 3.23 6.49

Wachapreague (WAHV2)g 28/0342 968.1 27/1642 39 57 3.02 6.74

Jamestown 4.20 6.05

Public/Other Savage

36.49 N -76.60 W 13.96

Conway (NCNR5) 36.37 N -77.20 W 13.30

Windsor (GCRN7) 36.01 N -76.89 W 12.21

Saunders (GDSV2) 36.61 N -76.55 W 11.14

Kilby 36.72 N -76.65 W 10.85

Great Bridge 36.71 N -76.26 W 10.75

Portlock 36.79 N -76.28 W 10.58

Newland 38.05 N -76.87 W 10.50

Conway 36.43 N -77.23 W 10.45

Williamsburg 37.29 N -76.79 W 10.05

Suffolk 36.73 N -76.60 W 9.76

Princess Anne 38.20 N -75.69 W 9.73

Deep Creek 36.74 N -76.34 W 9.72

Maryland ICAO Sites

Baltimore-Washington (KBWI) 28/0654 982.6 28/0354 26 44

Salisbury (KSBY) 28/0554 971.1 27/2116 40 53

Ocean City (KOXB) 28/0053 983.7 27/2053 33 47

Martin State (KMTN) 28/1145 34 48

Andrews AFB (KADW) 28/0455 34 47 Annapolis U.S Naval Academy (KNAK) 28/0754 980.9 28/0354 29 45

19

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Patuxent River NAS (KNHK) 28/0552 979.3 28/0231 36 56

Non-Metar Observations Chesapeake Beach

(CHSRL) 28/0215 63

Gaithersburg (GTHNT) 28/0559 63

Baltimore (BLTND) 28/1100 52

Upper Marlboro (UMLBO) 28/0724 51

Laurel (LRSHS) 28/0429 50

Manchester (MNCMG) 28/0805 50

Rockville (RVSJD) 28/0559 45

Weatherflow Observations Herring Bay 28/0040 41 56 Tolly Point 28/0220 45 60

Marine Observations

Thomas Point (TPLM2) 28/0800 979.6 28/0229 49 62 Cove Point (COVM2) 28/0600 978.4 28/0024 51 63

Francis Scott Key Bridge (FSKM2) 28/0724 980.4 28/1100 52 62

Solomons Island (SLIM2) 28/0618 979.5 28/0336 40 59 2.24 3.69 Piney Point (PPTM2) 28/0936 47 54

Bishops Head (BISM2) 28/0542 975.8 28/1024 40 51 2.02 4.14 Cambridge (CAMM2) 28/0648 976.2 27/2230 38 52 0.80 3.10

Ocean City Inlet (OCIM2) 28/0624 964.4 28/1236 29 42 2.01 4.69 Public/Other

Leonardtown (MD-SM-3) 38.30 N -76.63 W 11.52

Piney Point (MD-SM-1) 38.16 N -76.54 W 10.57

Ridge (MD-SM-1) 38.12 N -76.36 W 10.46

Great Mills (SMC10) 38.26 N -76.49 W 10.16

Delaware ICAO Sites

Dover AFB (KDOV) 28/1955 21 37 7.83

20

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Georgetown (KGED) 28/0654 971.1 27/2210 36 52 5.60

Wilmington (KILG) 28/0951 976.5 28/1651 31 49 6.94

Marine Observations

Lewes (LWSD1) 28/0730 968.4 27/2206 41 57 2.98 8.20 Brandywine Shoal Light

(BRND1) 28/0754 968.9 28/1642 53 67 2.70 8.84

Reedy Point (RDYD1)h 28/0924 975.2 1.88 8.03

Delaware City (DELD1)h 28/0942 975.2 28/0154 34 44 3.09 8.82

New Jersey ICAO Sites

Millville (KMIV) 28/0854 970.4 28/0254 27 43 6.31

Trenton (KTTN) 28/1153 972.2 28/0326 27 45 5.74

Atlantic City (KACY) 28/0936 965.1 28/1812 35 50 5.88

Newark (KEWR) 28/1218 967.5 28/1954 39 53 8.92

Teterboro (KTEB) 28/1246 966.8 28/2007 30 42 8.22


Perth Amboy Junction 28/0450 58

Bayonne (XBYO) 28/0830 45

Robbins Reef (ROBN4) 28/0800 61

Marine Observations Burlington, Delaware

River (BDRN4)h 28/1100 972.1 28/0636 33 43 3.42 11.34

Tacony-Palmyra Bridge (TPBN4)g,h 28/1042 973.5 3.44 9.94

Ship John Shoal (SJSN4) 28/0906 971.9 28/0000 41 50 2.47 9.34

Cape May (CMAN4) 28/0806 967.1 28/1648 51 65 2.48 8.55 Atlantic City Marina

(ACMN4) 28/0115 30 55

Atlantic City (ACYN4) 28/0930 960.1 2.15 6.96

Sandy Hook (SDHN4) 28/1236 962.9 28/2042 40 4.63 9.75

Public/Other Denton

38.84 N -75.92 W 11.68

Hickman 38.83 N -75.72 W 10.50

21

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Ellendale 38.80 N -75.42 W 10.43

Stockton 40.40 N -74.98 W 10.32

Pennsylvania ICAO Sites

Philadelphia (KPHL) 28/0954 974.6 28/1754 30 45 5.70

Allentown (KABE) 28/1251 978.9 28/0651 29 46 5.01

Pottstown (KPTW) 28/1054 978.1 28/0413 24 38 5.94

Marine Observations

Newbold (NBLP1)h 28/1118 971.1 28/2054 26 38 3.37 11.98

Philadelphia (PHBP1)h 28/1012 973.3 28/0212 20 35 2.77 9.93

Marcus Hook (MRCP1)h 28/1000 974.6 2.60 9.04

New York

ICAO Sites New York - Kennedy

(KJFK) 28/1207 967.8 28/2048 40 51 5.02

New York - LaGuardia (KLGA) 28/1231 966.1 28/0710 45 58 5.37

New York – Central Park (KNYC) 28/1236 965.8 28/0659 28 52 6.87

White Plains (KHPN) 28/1329 969.9 28/2038 32 49

Islip (KISP) 28/1252 975.3 28/1109 41 54 3.03

Farmingdale (KFRG) 28/1240 972.9 28/1156 39 53

Albany (KALB) 28/1751 978.4 29/0044 32 47 7.23 11.11

Poughkeepsie (KPOU) 28/1553 972.2 29/0021 23 37 5.35 7.92

Plattsburgh (KPBG) 28/2106 986.0 28/1950 36 50 3.73

Non-Metar Observations Jones Beach Coast Guard

(XJON) 28/0755 56

Bayville 28/0827 58

Fishers Island (XFSH) 28/0950 50

Sayville (AT614) 28/1102 79

East Moriches (D5220) 28/1020 62

Marine Observations

22

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Bergen Point West Reach (BGNN4) 28/1306 966.1 28/2054 28 40 4.56 10.22

The Battery (BATN6) 28/1312 964.6 4.36 9.50

Kings Point (KPTN6) 28/1342 968.2 28/2306 33 43 4.46 12.33

East Rockaway 4.48 8.92

Point Lookout 4.42 8.17

Freeport 4.73 8.15

Montauk (MTKN6) 28/1636 983.4 2.75 5.38

Public/Other Tuxedo Park

41.20 N -74.21 W 11.48

Harriman 41.30 N -74.14 W 10.45

Harrison 40.74 N -74.15 W 9.14

Yonkers 40.94 N -73.87 W 8.15

Whiteface Mountain 7.55

Connecticut

ICAO Sites

Bridgeport (KBDR) 28/1412 975.6 28/0831 40 55 3.50

Groton (KGON) 28/1258 983.1 28/1257 40 50

New Haven (KHVN) 28/1540 977.7 28/1336 37 58 3.34

Windsor Locks (KBDL) 28/1751 977.1 29/0151 26 44 5.23

Danbury (KDXR) 28/1454 973.2 28/1012 27 41 6.72

Marine Observations

Bridgeport (BRHC3) 28/1500 975.4 28/1436 37 45 4.44 12.08

New Haven (NWHC3) 28/1630 977.0 28/1554 35 45 4.65 11.57

New London (NLNC3) 28/1748 983.5 28/1442 37 47 3.49 6.55

Rhode Island

ICAO Sites

Providence (KPVD) 28/1951 984.4 28/1626 34 56 1.98

Block Island (KBID) 28/1815 989.4 29/0015 31 48 0.75

Westerly (KWST) 28/1753 984.0 28/1435 31 46 0.87

Marine Observations

23

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Quonset Point (QPTR1) 28/1818 983.4 28/1642 44 56 2.38 6.88

Providence (FOXR1) 28/1936 983.2 28/1548 42 58 4.65 8.25

Conimicut Light (CPTR1) 28/1948 983.1 28/1330 55 72 2.47 7.59

Newport (NWPR1) 28/1812 984.7 28/1642 39 51 2.31 6.54

Massachusetts

ICAO Sites

Nantucket (KACK) 28/1953 991.7 28/2353 35 55 0.03

Boston (KBOS) 28/2154 983.6 28/1554 38 55 1.68

Chatham (KCQX) 28/2152 991.1 28/1852 24 52 0.06

New Bedford (KEWB) 29/1953 1000.0 28/1453 35 50 0.28

Falmouth (KFMH) 28/2115 991.8 28/2255 36 52

Hyannis (KHYA) 28/2156 990.3 28/1814 38 57 0.07

Milton (KMQE) 28/1954 984.0 28/1654 37 70 1.99

Marine Observations Nantucket Island

(NTKM3) 28/2024 991.1 28/1748 26 42 1.28 4.53

Menemsha Harbor, Martha’s Vineyard

(8448725) 2.43 5.29

Woods Hole (BZBM3) 28/2048 988.9 2.87 4.61

Chatham (8447435) 1.59 7.45

Fall River (FRVM3) 28/1948 985.4 1.95 7.30

Boston (BHBM3) 28/2112 983.3 1.72 11.95

Public/Other Conway

42.51 N -72.68 W 9.92

Ashfield 42.52 N -72.79 W 9.75

Shelburne Falls 42.60 N -72.74 W 8.50

Vermont

ICAO Sites

Springfield (KVSF) 28/2054 979.5 28/2309 35 5.66

St. Johnsbury (K1V4) 28/2054 980.7 4.60

Montpelier (KMPV) 28/1951 983.6 4.46

24

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Morrisville (KMVL) 28/2154 982.9 3.59

Rutland (KRUT) 28/1955 980.2 3.50

Burlington (KBTV) 28/2049 983.3 29/0038 43 3.38

Public/Other

South Lincoln 8.15

Alpine Village 7.87

Ludlow 7.86

Jeffersonville 7.76

Groton 7.72

Cavendish 7.60

Jay 7.50

East Orange 7.40

Woodstock 7.34

Randolph Center 7.28

New Hampshire

ICAO Sites

Nashua 28/2051 981.8 28/1353 28 45 3.04

Manchester (KMHT) 28/2053 981.0 28/1651 27 44 3.31

Concord (KCON) 28/2251 981.0 28/1551 21 45 Mt. Washington (KMWN)

(elevation 6266 ft) 29/0655 86 97

Marine Observations

Fort Point (8423898) 0.55 10.94

Maine

ICAO Sites

Augusta (KAUG) 29/0253 985.3 28/1934 32 49

Bar Harbor (KBHB) 29/0255 985.1 29/2115 32 46

Bangor (KBGR) 29/0253 985.4 28/2053 28 42

Marine Observations

Wells (WELM1) 29/0042 983.5 28/1736 29 38 0.80 11.22

Portland (CASM1) 29/0224 983.4 1.08 11.96

Bar Harbor (ATGM1) 29/0442 989.8 29/1218 20 37 1.25 13.65

25

Location



Storm surge (ft)c

Storm tide (ft)d

Total rain (in)

Date/ time

(UTC)

Press. (mb)

Date/ time

(UTC)a

Sustained (kt)b

Gust (kt)

Eastport (PSBM1) 29/0724 991.9 29/0036 36 47 1.09 22.02

Buoys

41043 Southwest Atlantic 22/0750 1010.6 22/1336 37 45

41046 Eastern Bahamas 24/0650 1010.3 23/0850 35 39

41047 Southwest Atlantic 25/0850 1011.9 25/1846 35 39

41009 E of Cape Canaveral 26/0720 1000.1 26/0350 31

41010 Cape Canaveral 26/0720 982.2 26/0620 49

41012 St. Augustine 26/1050 1001.4 26/1430 32 41

41008 Grays Reef 27/2150 1001.7 26/1640 31 43

41004 Charleston 26/2350 991.6 26/2310 45 56

41013 Frying Pan Shoals 27/0650 976.1 26/2210 47 60

41036 Onslow Bay 27/1020 956.7 27/1620 49 64

41001 Cape Hatteras 27/1850 997.3 27/1850 38 52

44014 Virginia Beach 28/0050 969.5 27/2310 44 56

44009 Cape May 28/0550 967.8 27/2140 42 54 44065 Entrance to NY

Harbor 19/1250 968.3 28/1220 47 52

44008 Nantucket 28/1950 996.0 28/1750 36 47

44018 Cape Cod 28/2050 994.1 29/0150 31 39

44020 Nantucket Sound 28/2050 989.2 28/2350 41 50

44013 Boston 28/2050 984.0 28/1550 36 49

44005 Gulf of Maine 28//225 37

44007 Gulf of Maine 29/0150 983.2 28/2250 32 45

* Observation adjusted to 10 m by Dr. John Schroeder ( program director)and colleagues from Texas Tech University Hurricane Research Team. a Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed. b Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging period is 8 min. c Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

d Storm tide is referenced above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW). Bold numbers indicate that the maximum recorded water level exceeded historical maximum values. e Anemometer height 5 m. f Wind averaging period 10 min. g Sensor reached physical limit on measurements and did not record a maximum value. h Maximum storm tide/storm surge likely includes effects from freshwater runoff.

26

Table 4a. NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) track forecast errors (n mi) for Hurricane Irene, 21 -28 August 2011. Mean errors for the 5-yr period 2006-10 are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smaller than the five-year means are shown in boldface type.

Forecast Period (h)

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

OFCL 23.8 38.0 53.0 68.4 101.2 132.2 237.1

OCD5 38.1 65.5 92.1 112.7 174.10 222.1 245.5

Forecasts 30 28 26 24 20 16 12

OFCL (2006-10) 31.0 50.6 69.9 89.5 133.2 174.2 214.8

OCD5 (2006-10) 47.7 98.3 156.4 218.1 323.3 402.2 476.1

27

Table 4b. Homogeneous comparison of selected track forecast guidance models (in n mi) for Hurricane Irene. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in boldface type. The number of official forecasts shown here will generally be smaller than that shown in Table 4a due to the homogeneity requirement.

Model ID Forecast Period (h)

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

OFCL 22.1 35.9 51.8 67.1 95.5 127.7 235.1 OCD5 34.1 58.8 87.2 105.1 165.2 223.0 247.1 GFSI 21.9 32.8 43.4 52.6 71.7 89.7 162.3 GHMI 29.0 42.9 66.3 96.2 162.6 231.1 400.5 HWFI 23.2 34.5 39.9 50.1 78.7 125.7 231.9 GFNI 27.9 45.2 67.5 82.4 99.6 84.8 93.7 NGPI 29.2 46.0 63.0 79.1 110.0 123.2 136.3 EGRI 27.5 53.4 81.8 117.0 186.0 269.4 422.0 EMXI 21.2 34.4 46.7 63.3 92.1 101.5 170.8 AEMI 21.5 38.2 53.4 75.1 117.2 135.9 194.8 FSSE 23.5 41.1 54.5 71.8 114.6 159.0 259.1

TCON 22.5 35.2 50.1 69.1 105.5 144.3 239.0 TCCN 22.7 37.2 52.8 74.5 114.0 177.9 307.6 TVCA 22.8 36.1 49.9 69.3 105.5 139.0 233.1 TVCC 22.4 37.3 52.2 72.2 107.8 154.0 253.7 GUNA 23.2 37.7 55.6 76.4 116.8 152.4 244.0 LBAR 25.9 41.9 64.0 88.1 140.1 155.7 187.4 BAMD 25.5 39.8 49.7 55.7 81.0 108.1 211.7 BAMM 33.5 54.9 84.3 115.2 157.9 163.5 198.1 BAMS 56.5 103.9 155.5 196.4 238.1 200.8 168.3

Forecasts 26 24 23 21 18 15 11

28

Table 5a. NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) intensity forecast errors (kt) for Hurricane Irene, 21-28 August 2011. Mean errors for the 5-yr period 2006-10 are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smaller than the 5-yr means are shown in boldface type.

Forecast Period (h)

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

OFCL 10.2 13.9 18.3 21.5 28.5 25.9 22.9

OCD5 9.1 11.9 13.4 15.4 17.8 17.6 12.7

Forecasts 30 28 26 24 20 16 12

OFCL (2006-10) 7.2 11.0 13.2 15.1 17.2 17.9 18.7

OCD5 (2006-10) 8.5 12.3 15.4 17.8 20.2 21.9 21.7

Table 5b. Homogeneous comparison of selected intensity forecast guidance models (in kt) for Hurricane Irene, 21-28 August 2011. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in boldface type. The number of official forecasts shown here will generally be smaller than that shown in Table 5a due to the homogeneity requirement.

Model ID Forecast Period (h)

12 24 36 48 72 96 120 OFCL 10.2 13.9 18.3 21.5 28.5 25.9 22.9

OCD5 9.1 11.9 13.4 15.4 17.8 17.6 12.7 GHMI 11.3 15.6 22.0 23.6 29.4 24.9 23.6 HWFI 10.0 14.0 15.1 19.6 21.2 27.2 27.1 FSSE 10.5 15.0 16.7 17.6 22.7 20.6 23.1 DSHP 10.6 14.5 16.3 19.0 24.3 28.1 22.8 LGEM 9.7 12.9 15.7 18.3 20.3 22.5 20.8 ICON 10.1 13.4 15.8 18.6 22.5 22.1 12.6 IVCN 10.3 13.5 16.4 18.8 23.1 22.2 12.2

Forecasts 30 28 26 24 20 16 12

29

Table 6. Watch and warning summary for Hurricane Irene, 21- 28 August 2011.

Date/Time (UTC) Action Location

20 / 2300 Tropical Storm Warning issued British Virgin Islands, Saint Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Anguilla, Montserrat, Barbuda

20 / 2300 Tropical Storm Warning issued Saba, St. Maartin, St. Eustatius

20 / 2300 Tropical Storm Warning issued Dominica

21 / 0300 Tropical Storm Watch issued South coast of Dominican Republic from Haiti border to Cabo Engano

21 / 0900 Tropical Storm Watch changed to Hurricane Warning

South coast of Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Cabo Engano

21 / 0900 Tropical Storm Watch issued Haiti

21 / 0900 Tropical Storm Warning issued St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

21 / 0900 Tropical Storm Warning issued North coast of the DR/Haiti N border to Cabo Engano

21 / 0900 Hurricane Watch issued Puerto Rico

21 / 1200 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Dominica

21 / 1500 Tropical Storm Watch changed to Tropical Storm Warning

Haiti

21 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning changed to Hurricane Watch

U.S. Virgin Islands

21 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning changed to Hurricane Warning

Puerto Rico

21 / 1500 Tropical Storm Watch issued Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos

21 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning modified North coast Dominican Republic /Haiti border to Cabo Frances Viejo

21 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning issued U.S Virgin Islands

21 / 1500 Hurricane Watch discontinued Puerto Rico

21 / 1500 Hurricane Warning modified to South coast of Dominican Republic /Haiti south border to Cabo Francis Viejo

21 / 1800 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued British Virgin Islands, Saint Kitts, Nevis,

30

Antigua, Anguilla, Montserrat, Barbuda

21 / 1800 Tropical Storm Warning issued British Virgin Islands

21 / 2100 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Saba, St. Maartin, and St. Eustatius

21 / 2100 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Dominican Republic /Haiti N border to Cabo Francis Viejo

21 / 2100 Hurricane Warning discontinued Dominican Republic/Haiti S border to Cabo Francis Viejo

21 / 2100 Hurricane Warning issued Dominican Republic


Southeastern Bahamas, Turk and Caicos

22 / 0000 Tropical Storm Watch issued Central Bahamas

22 / 0300 Tropical Storm Watch changed to Hurricane Watch

Central Bahamas

22 / 0300 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

22 / 0700 Tropical Storm Warning issued Dominican Republic /Haiti south border to Cabo Engano

22 / 0700 Hurricane Warning discontinued Dominican Republic

22 / 0700 Hurricane Warning issued Dominican Republic/Haiti north border to Cabo Engano

22 / 0900 Hurricane Watch changed to Tropical Storm Warning

U.S. Virgin Islands

22 / 0900 Hurricane Watch issued Le Mole St. Nicholas to Dominican Republic/Haiti N border

22 / 1300 Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm Warning

Puerto Rico

22 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning changed to Hurricane Warning

Southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos

22 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued U.S. Virgin Islands

22 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued British Virgin Islands

22 / 1800 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Puerto Rico

22 / 1800 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Santo Domingo to Cabo Engano

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22 / 2100 Hurricane Watch discontinued Central Bahamas

22 / 2100 Hurricane Watch issued Northwestern Bahamas

22 / 2100 Hurricane Warning discontinued Southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos

22 / 2100 Hurricane Warning issued Central Bahamas and Southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos

23 / 1500 Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm Warning

Dominican Republic/Haiti N border to Cabo Engano

23 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Dominican Republic/Haiti north border to Cabo Engano

23 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Haiti

23 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning issued Le Mole St. Nicholas to Dominican Republic/Haiti north border

23 / 1500 Hurricane Watch discontinued Northwestern Bahamas

23 / 1500 Hurricane Warning discontinued Central Bahamas and Southeastern Bahamas, Turk and Caicos

23 / 1500 Hurricane Warning issued Northwestern, Central and Southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos

23 / 1800 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Le Mole St. Nicholas to Dominican Republic/Haiti north border

23 / 2100 Hurricane Watch changed to Tropical Storm Warning

Le Mole St. Nicholas to Dominican Republic/Haiti north border

23 / 2100 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Le Mole St. Nicholas to Dominican Republic/Haiti north border

24 / 0900 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued All

24 / 1200 Tropical Storm Warning issued Turks and Caicos

24 / 1200 Hurricane Warning discontinued Northwestern, Central and Southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos

24 / 1200 Hurricane Warning issued Northwestern, Central and Southeastern Bahamas

25 / 0000 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued All

25 / 0900 Tropical Storm Warning issued Edisto Beach to Surf City

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25 / 0900 Hurricane Watch issued Surf City to North Carolina/Virginia border

25 / 1200 Hurricane Warning discontinued Northwestern, Central and Southeastern Bahamas

25 / 1200 Hurricane Warning issued Northwestern and Central Bahamas

25 / 2100 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet

25 / 2100 Hurricane Watch modified to North Carolina /Virginia border to Sandy Hook

25 / 2100 Hurricane Warning discontinued Northwestern and Central Bahamas

25 / 2100 Hurricane Warning issued Northwestern Bahamas

25 / 2100 Hurricane Warning issued Little River Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia border

26 / 0300 Hurricane Warning discontinued Northwestern Bahamas

26 / 0300 Hurricane Warning issued Grand Bahama to Abaco Island

26 / 0900 Hurricane Watch modified to Sandy Hook to Merrimack River

26 / 0900 Hurricane Warning modified to Little River Inlet to Sandy Hook

26 / 1500 Hurricane Warning discontinued Grand Bahama to Abaco Island

26 / 2100 Tropical Storm Watch issued Merrimack River to Eastport

26 / 2100 Tropical Storm Warning issued Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River

26 / 2100 Hurricane Watch discontinued All

26 / 2100 Hurricane Warning modified to Little River Inlet to Sagamore Beach

27 / 0900 Tropical Storm Warning modified to South Santee River to Little River Inlet


Merrimack River to Eastport

27 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued South Santee River to Little River Inlet

27 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River


27 / 1800 Tropical Storm Warning issued U.S./Canada border to Porters Lake


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27 / 2100 Hurricane Warning modified to Cape Fear to Sagamore Beach



28 / 0100 Hurricane Warning modified to Cape Lookout to Sagamore Beach




28 / 0900 Tropical Storm Warning issued Okracoke Inlet to Chincoteague

28 / 0900 Hurricane Warning modified to Chincoteague to Sagamore Beach

28 / 1200 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Cape Charles Light to Chincoteague


28 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Chincoteague to Eastport

28 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River

28 / 1500 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Chincoteague to Eastport

28 / 1500 Hurricane Warning discontinued All

28 / 1800 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Cape Henlopen to Eastport

29 / 0000 Tropical Storm Warning modified to Manasqan to Eastport

29 / 0300 Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Manasqan to Eastport

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Table 7. Causes of direct deaths associated with Hurricane Irene, 21-28 August, 2011.

Location Storm Surge/ Rip currents/

waves

Fresh water/rainfall

Wind/falling trees Tornadoes Unknown causes

Dominican Republic 3 1 1

Haiti 3

USA

Puerto Rico 1

Florida

Volusia Co. 1

North Carolina

Pitt Co. 2

Sampson Co. 1

Nash Co. 1

Virginia

Chesterfield Co. 1

City of Newport News 1

City of Virginia Beach 1 1

Brunswick Co. 1

City of Hopewell

Maryland

Queen Anne’s Co. 1

Delaware

New Castle Co. 2

New York

Greene Co. 2

Montgomery Co. 1

Delaware Co. 1

Albany Co. 1

Suffolk Co. 1

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Westchester Co. 1

Bronx Co. 1

Clinton Co. 2

New Jersey

Mercer Co. 2

Salem Co. 1

Hudson Co. 1

Morris Co. 1

Ocean Co. 2

Pennsylvania.

Dauphin Co. 1

Luzerne Co. 1

Montgomery Co. 1

Monroe Co. 1

Connecticut

Hartford Co. 1

Vermont

Rutland Co. 1

Windham Co. 1

Windsor Co. 1

New Hampshire

Merrimack Co. 1

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Figure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Irene, 21 -28 August 2011. Track during the extratropical stage is based on analyses from the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

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20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

8/18 8/20 8/22 8/24 8/26 8/28 8/30

BEST TRACKSat (TAFB)Sat (SAB)AC (sfc)AC (flt->sfc)AC (DVK P->W)SurfaceDrop (sfc)Drop (LLM xtrp)AMSUAnalysis

Win

d Sp

eed

(kt)

Date (Month/Day)

Hurricane Irene21 - 28 August 2011

Figure 2. Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Irene, 21-28 August 2011. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb, 850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC. The solid vertical line corresponds to the first U.S. east coast landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

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Figure 3. Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Irene, 21-28 August 2011. KZC P-W refers to pressure estimates derived using the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney pressure-wind relationship. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC. The solid vertical line corresponds to landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

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Figure. 4 San Juan Puerto Rico doppler radar image showing the center of Irene moving over St Croix around 2300 UTC 22 August 2011.

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(a) (b) (c)

Figure 5. SSMI/S 91 GHz color composite images at (a) 1308 UTC 24 August 2011, near the time of peak intensity (b) 2536 UTC 25 August and (c) 1040 UTC 26 August 2011, near the time of lowest pressure. Images courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California.

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Figure. 6. Selected sustained wind coastal observations in knots associated with Hurricane Irene.

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Figure 7. Rainfall totals associated with Hurricane Irene. This map was produced by the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

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Figure 8. Selected storm surge values in feet associated with Hurricane Irene. Map provided by the NHC storm surge unit.

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Figure 9. Official NHC track forecasts (black lines) for Irene every 6 h from 0000 UTC 21 August to 1800 UTC 28 August. Observed track is in white.

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Figure 10. Official NHC intensity forecasts for Irene every 6 h from 1200 UTC 23 August to 0600 UTC 28 August.

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